adam

Guys, you both have been right and wrong before, I have too, it's ok. I can post about someone having a 300 yard game to support something I am posting about, but then Grizz comes in and reminds me that 120 of those yards were in garbage time. Everything has context and nuance, and we only ever know 50% or so of what is really going on unless someone on here is inside Halas Hall. I try to post interesting info I find and discuss. I am wrong a lot, called out a bunch. It's all for fun. I laugh to myself at some comments, I disagree with others. Either I engage when it is counter to what I think and I try to provide evidence or I don't engage at all.

Here is the thing with the Fields vs Williams vs Other QB debate. I think no matter what direction the Bears go, they are a playoff team. If the Bears get a historic haul to trade out of the #1 pick, they will take it. If they don't get that type of offer, they probably go with a QB at #1, or even trade down and draft one later. If the Bears go into 2024 with Fields, they win at least 9 games, and probably as high as 11. I think if they go with Williams, for his rookie year, the floor may be 8, but the ceiling is around 12. If they go with someone like Maye, I think the floor is a little lower, 7-8 wins, and the ceiling is probably around 9-10 for his rookie year.

Luke Getsy to the Raiders, I assume they are out of the running for Fields, but maybe still for the #1 pick trade. So either the Raiders think Fields was the problem or they are batshit crazy.

It will be a top 5 (easiest) no matter what.

I think the Bears are a year away. They haven't had 1st rounders for so long because of Trubisky and Mack that the foundation was bare.

That is a hilarious trade. I was figuring #2, a 2nd rounder, a 2025 1st, and something else (player or another pick).

What is wild is she is on a bunch of different outlets and Fox Sports. Like they are actually paying her a salary to do that? Why? What are her credentials? I don't mind females in sports media, but unless it is someone like Cynthia Frelund who is doing analytics with math models, I would rather they stick to the sideline reporting and basic sportscasting.

Their roster was strong enough to survive that. One other thing, they absolutely fleeced Carolina without having to give up a 1st for McCaffrey. They then had a top 5 O-Line, top 3 RB, top 5 TE, and a top 10 WR Duo in Deebo and Aiyuk. Couple that with a top 5 defense and you can whiff on a pick like that, especially when you hit on a 7th rounder that is good enough and predictable.

For Fields to hit Williams high numbers, he would have to improve this offseason by 28%, to hit Williams low numbers Fields would have to improve by 12%. So what are the odds that Williams hits his high number, or his low number, and what are the odds that Fields hits the 28% and or the 12%. Poles is going to go with the more likely probability, whatever he determines that to be.

If Williams drops by 20%, here would be his average pro numbers per game: 251 yds/g (4,273/season), 2.2 TD/g (38/season), 0.46 INT/g (8/season). 4,273, 38 TD, 8 INT If he drops 30%: 220yds/g (3,736/season), 1.9 TD/g (33 TD/season), 0.5 INT/g (9/season) 3,736, 33 TD, 9 INT The INTs for him were so low that 20 or 30% don't move it too much, so I would say those could increase by 1 or 2 more just based on other factors, 17 game season (longer), playing teams twice, etc. Other than that, those are honestly realistic numbers just based off a generic projection.

For Bagent, simply D2. He got a lot of reps, but the opponents were so much slower, weaker. I don't know any other way to equate it other than his games were more like a friendly or a scrimmage. So you know what he can do, I would say Bagent's ceiling and floor are much closer together than Fields. The only way for Bagent to improve significantly would be for the rest of the team to get better around him thus making things easier for him. Wentz was good for a year and sort of flamed out. Ironically, he was good on a team that won the Super Bowl without him. So he probably wasn't that good to begin with. Lance was never going to be good, or if he does, he would need 2-3 years of a ton of playing time. He hasn't gotten that, and you can only improve so much in practice. Purdy had 1467 attempts in college, which is great D1 volume. You sort of know what a QB is after 1000 attempts or so. They don't change that much. He is clearly a game manager. In college, his last two years, he played very pedestrian. His college career average yards per game was 253. That would translate to a 200 yard passer in the NFL on average. He is averaging 226 yards per game in the NFL in the perfect situation. I figure he will settle in to be a 220-230 yard per game guy for his career. The one thing that carried over for him is the INTs, he had basically a 2.5% INT rate in college and that is what he has in the pros. That is not bad, but not elite. Williams has a 1.2% and 21% of his career INTs came in one game. Rodgers has a 1.4% for his career. Looking back, I missed the eval on Mahomes. I listened to the media and didn't look at the numbers. I kept seeing he was careless with the ball, and he had a ton of picks. Nope. His last year in college he had a 1.7% INT rate and for his college career it was 2.1%. He had 1349 attempts in D1, check. He had some monster games, check. He had a high TD rate, check. Everything carried over to the pros, its comical. He averaged 351 passing yards per game for his college career. I only used his best season above. He is down to 296 in the NFL, down 15.7%. He had 2.9 TD/g, down to 2.3 in the NFL, down 21%. So Mahomes isn't doing anything that couldn't be projected. Take his college numbers and reduce by 15-25% and you have his pro numbers. That is what he is doing. What we don't know is how far they will fall. Every player drops, how much is the question. Elite guys are under 20%, or guys that are game managers that have been very consistent in college over several years. Then you got tier 2 guys in the 20's to 30%, then everyone else above 30%.

Nope, he pulled out, no pun intended.

I think Fields can be a top 10 QB, but in my opinion, he would almost need to sit for a year as a QB2 (which I doubt ever happens), and allow him to just concentrate solely on improving his weaknesses. Even without that, he can marginally improve anywhere. If Fields comes back, with the new coaching staff, and new weapons, he will be better. I just don't know how much. It is such a fascinating situation because they Bears are weighing so many variables that in the end, I don't think you really can go historically wrong. Like if the Bears draft Williams, at worst he is a taller Kyler Murray. If they keep Fields, at worst, he is the same player with better surroundings. Either one makes this a team with at least a winning record and the cusp of the playoffs. The flip side is what is the ceiling? That is the biggest question. Can the new offensive coaches unlock something in Fields that has not been unlocked by the last two staffs? If they can, what is the new ceiling? For Williams, can they translate his success and make it work in the NFL framework in 4 months, and what does that potential look like? Mahomes sort of nullified the QB record in college, and because conferences vary in terms of competition level, it's hard to equalize that. So I have actually never used that in comparing prospects as far as I know. What I was implying was the volume again. That has always been a concern of mine and rarely do QBs with such low volume in terms of passing attempts succeed in the NFL. Mainly because you really don't know who they are yet. Fields really got screwed by the COVID year. Williams threw 481 more passes in college than Fields. It took Fields almost 2 years in the NFL to hit that number. 241-267 is the correct range, it was a typo. That is the most likely projection of yardage based on the reduction in yardage by percentage from college QBs to the NFL. He could be worse, but 225 seems like the absolute lowest, but he could also be higher, somewhere in the low 280s, which would put him at 4,800 passing yards on the season. The median is 254 which is 4,318 in a 17-game season or 4,064 in 16 games assuming they rest him in Week 18 for the playoffs. For weaker competition, I am saying Ohio State plays weaker opponents compared to the Chicago Bears. Fields had a stacked offense in Ohio State and he played weaker opponents than he has seen playing with the Bears. However, outside of 4-5 games (both Clemson games), he hasn't really dominated the competition with his arm. So why would anyone expect him to do that in the NFL, especially with guys like Mooney and Pettis?

Yeah, I can see him going to PHI at 22 or even ARZ at 27 (their 2nd 1st rounder).

As a media member, I find it funny that you have to justify your existence, and when you get something right, you are patting yourself on the back. In most cases, you have a 50% chance of being right on every prediction on whether a player or team will be good or not good.

Most kids want to play for their favorite team growing up, so I am sure he would like to do that, but few do. Joe Burrow was selected #1 by Cincy who had the #1 overall pick. So if he wants to be selected by Washington, there is some work to do. Just say they work out a trade with the Bears to move up to #1. That is at least taking a 2025 1st and a 2024 2nd. So now Williams goes to a 4-win team with no 1st rounder next year, with the worst defense in the league, and an offensive line that allowed 65 sacks. That is the David Carr situation. Oh, and he would have a 3rd Year QB who threw for 3,946 yards sitting behind him. Looking back at their schedule, they were close to going 0-17, every win was by one score or less. Dan Quinn is the head coach. He is a solid HC, but not an upgrade over Riverboat Ron. By the time that team gets fixed, Caleb will be a 35-year old journeyman making Klik-Klok videos (the new TikTok in 2035) in a hologram. The one place where Caleb can safely go and not succeed is Washington in my opinion. They may have the most cap space and will have the same amount as the Bears after Jackson and Whitehair are cut, but if I am a free agent, I would take less money to go somewhere else than to go to Washington. In a way, this makes the #1 pick even more valuable, because now the Bears can tell Washington that they are trading #1 to some other team that is taking Williams.

If they do trade Fields and he excels somewhere else, that doesn't necessarily mean if the Bears held onto him, he would've done the same thing here. Sometimes guys just need some new scenery, maybe get knocked down a rung, a reality check. I am trying to look at it from a broader perspective in terms of where a player's ceiling and floor could be. To me, Fields never got to the level of play in college that Williams did. Fields best year would be Williams 3rd best. The volume was just not there from Fields. In his only full season, in 14 starts, Fields only had 4 games with more than 240 passing yards. Does that sound familiar? He did that with a WR Corps of Olave, Wilson, and Williams, and Dobbins at RB. He only averaged 233 passing yards a game with that group of WRs. So if he only averaged 233 yards per game in college with weaker competition and that group of receivers, what did anyone expect him to do with Mooney, ESB, Pettis against NFL defenses? LMAO! Guess how many times Justin hit 240 yds in his first 28 NFL starts? 3 times. Stats don't necessarily perfectly correlate, but rarely have I seen them go UP in the NFL. Remember Mitch? In his best season in college, he averaged 288 passing yards a game. In 2018, he peaked at 230 yds a game, but is down to 181 for his career. I thought the percentage drop was interesting. Guys with a ton of yards have more to lose, so I think it is a little skewed the higher you go, so Mahomes normalized (using all college numbers) would be only down 16%. Either way, just looking at the 5 guys below, all went down in the NFL. So why did the Bears think Fields production would go up? 262 - Fields (Jr Year) (167 for NFL career) -36.3% 288 - Trubisky (Jr Year) (181 for NFL career) -37.2% 306 - Watson (253 for NFL career) -17.4% 315 - Lawrence (Jr Year) (235 NFL for career) -25.4% 421 - Mahomes (296 for career) -29.7% 324 - Williams (So Year) >>> (projected range: 241 yds - 267 yds per game)

He liked a Chicago realtor's post with some nice views of the city and a price for the apartment.

That was quick:

I don't deny that everyone is saying that because that is the popular opinion. However, they are going in with the information that they have, and most, if not all of them don't work at Halas Hall. I am also in that camp but it just seems like what Poles setup last year. I could be totally wrong and they go sign Kirk Cousins. We don't know if Vegas just offered up Crosby+a historic haul for #1 to pair Williams with Kingsbury? or what other offers are on the table. I still think there is a chance that they trade the #1 if the price is right, but it's high.

Not if we trade the #1 pick.......

Actually, there is one more layer to this, and it may be the most important aspect when you are talking about the logistics of it. If Fields kills it with Atlanta, Poles and Flus can blame Getsy!! Seriously. So with Williams, all he can't do is become a bust and Poles for sure will be safe for several years. If Fields stays the same or is worse somewhere else, they can say, see it was him. So they have an out basically on 75% of the outcomes. The only one they can't overcome is the bust one, and that would apply with any QB, not just Williams. So in reality, drafting a QB and trading Fields provides them with the best odds for long term success. The odds of Fields all of a sudden becoming significantly better with a 3rd Offensive staff is very low. Those are probably the lowest odds of any outcome.

It interesting is listening to just general Senior Bowl coverage, or other team's coverage as it is very unbiased opinions about the Bears (except NFC North Podcasts/etc). The consensus is Bears will take Williams at #1, and that almost seems like a fact. They are talking more about where Fields could potentially go, and how much it will cost. Teams like Pittsburgh, Atlanta, and Vegas are the 3 most popular destinations. When you look at their fanbase, most are super excited to get Fields and feel like he was given a raw deal in Chicago.

Yep, compared to WAS who basically missed out on all the coaching hires, had OCs turn down the job and stay with their current teams. It makes sense.

So the Bears essentially have 2x OCs (have called plays before), and multiple position coaches and assistants that have been the primary position coach before. In the past, the Bears would have to hire a parking lot attendant to be a position coach, and a position coach to be a Coordinator. Not this year. Even on the defensive side, Washington, the new DC, has already been a DC and Asst HC before.