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Everything posted by adam
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Oh yeah for sure, I think the trenches have to get addresses every year, regardless how good your top guys are.
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The league is a head-to-head league, and normally when one team gets better another team gets worse, at least relatively speaking. The Bears had a huge gap to make up in the division as a 5-win team this offseason. Every other team made the playoffs and had no less than 11 wins. So to close the gap, they needed a massive coaching staff upgrade, check, an impactful free agency, check, and a really solid draft, check. It still means nothing until Week 1, but the groundwork is in place to be in the mix with DET, MIN, and GB this season. There is a good chance that the entire NFCN has 10+ wins. I think DET and MIN will come down to earth, GB will be around 9-10 wins, and CHI will be somewhere in the mix. The 4th place team in the NFCN probably misses the playoffs again, and they may be a 10 win team. I am hoping the Bears can get to 11 wins.
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Johnson leaves and Detroit literally shits the bed with their draft. Teslaa with pick 70 is 10x worse than Hyppolite at 132, but is 100x worse considering Detroit gave up 3x 3rd round picks for him, their 2025, their 2026, and their 2026 3rd Comp for losing Glenn. This is not talked about enough. There is a great chance that he would've been there at their original pick.
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These were the top-4 TE duos in 2024: Kelce+Gray = 137 Bowers+Mayers = 133 McBride+Higgins = 133 Henry+Hooper= 111 11 TEs had 60+ receptions, so I don't think it is out of the question. Loveland may not have 70, but I would not be surprised if Loveland+Kmet exceed what Henry+Hooper did last season with a rookie QB and all-around bad team.
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Another name to consider is Jamaal Williams, who had 1K rushing and 17 TDs for Ben Johnson in 2022. He shared a backfield with Swift and Williams was their leading rusher.
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As of today, the Bears have 9 offensive starters signed thru 2026 and 8 signed thru 2027. Thuney, Jones, and Swift are the 3. If you assume Trapilo starts at some point, then LG and RB are the only starter needs in the next 2 years on offense (which is awesome). On defense, it is 6 (Sweat, Johnson, Gordon, Odeyingbo, Jarrett, and Edwards) thru 2027. Edmunds, Dexter, and Stevenson go to 2026, with both safeties on the final year of their contracts this year. If Turner becomes a starter at DT, he might negate the loss of Billings in 2026, but the need would pop up after 2026 if Dexter is not extended. Either way, this is not bad at all for current needs for the next two offseasons (starter-wise): 2026 Needs: Safety x2, LG, maybe OT 2027 Needs: RB, LB, CB, DT
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Williams 395-580, 68.1%, 4490 yds, 7.7 Y/A, 31 TD, 8 INT Moore 85-930 yds, 8 TD Odunze 75-960 yds, 5 TD Loveland 70-790 yds, 7 TD (top 5 rookie TE season) Burden 65-880 yds, 4 TD (top WR3 in NFL) Kmet 50-480 yds, 4 TD Swift 30-250 yds, 1 TD Others 20-200 yds, 2 TD Williams' numbers would put him 4th in completions, attempts, and yards, 6th in TDs, 5th in INTs, 8th in Y/A, and 9th in Comp%. All of these are completely scientific and can't be disputed until they are incorrect after the season.
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If the Bears didn't trade back with BUF, they could've had Scourton at 41 and then took Johnson or Skattebo in the 3rd. 1-Loveland 2-Burden 2-Scourton 3-Kaleb Johnson 5-Marcus Mbow It will ultimately come down to Trapilo and Turner for this draft for me.
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Just looking through stats from last year, the Bears will have the deepest receiving group in the NFL. Whoever ends up as pass-catching TE2 will be the best TE2 in the league. Whoever ends up as WR3 will be the best WR3 in the league. Whoever ends up WR2 will be a top 5 WR2. Odunze had the most yards of any WR3 and the 2nd most receptions in the NFL last year. Allen had the 2nd most receptions as WR2, both on a terrible offense. If things go as planned, I think Moore will have over 80 receptions, Odunze and Loveland will have over 70, Burden over 60, and Kmet over 50. Add 30+ for RBs and another 10 or so for all others and that should put Williams near 400 completions. Williams had 351 last year and Goff had 390 with comparable weapons, so it checks out. Moore, Odunze, Burden > St. Brown, Williams, Patrick Loveland, Kmet > LaPorta, Wright Swift, Johnson < Gibbs, Montgomery I also think Moore will have 20+ carries (he had 14 last year) and I am sure Burden and Loveland will have a few as well. That may be why they didn't want to commit higher draft capital on a RB.
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I was thinking maybe Dobbins or Chubb. With the run of RBs drafted, plus what teams already had on their rosters, those free agents don't have very many options. The Bears seem like one of the logical destinations.
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I am glad to see a couple of Edge and Safeties. Very interesting to see zero RBs. They must believe in Wheeler or have something else cooking.
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Burden was projected in the top 10 in some mocks and was WR1 in some as well, depending on your flavor of WR. He immediately becomes the best WR3 in the NFL, and will draw the opponent's CB3 on most plays. That in itself is a mismatch every snap.
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One thing to consider, with the new staff that this is not a one-year rebuild. So some of these picks may not have been the most optimal for 2025, but for the totality of the their contracts. Loveland may share targets with Kmet in 2025, then be TE1 with 90% of the targets in 2026. Burden may be WR3 in 2025, but is WR1 or WR2 in 2026 or 27. Trapilo may not start in 2025, but could be their starting RT down the line. Turner the same way. If Hyppolite, can develop for a year under Edmunds and Edwards, he could replace Edmunds next season.
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Here is the updated roster/depth chart. Projected starters in bold, rookies underlined. QB - Williams, Keenum, Bagent RB - Swift, Johnson, Homer, (Wheeler) or (Monangai-PS) TE - Kmet, Loveland (12p), Smythe, (Carlson) WR - Moore, Odunze, Burden (11p), Zaccheaus, Duvernay, (Scott) or (Boykin) OL - Jones, Thuney, Dalman, Jackson, Wright, Trapilo, Bates, Amegadjie, (Kramer) or (Newman- PS) DT - Billings, Jarrett, Dexter, Turner, Williams, Ford, (Pickens) Edge - Sweat, Odeyingbo, Booker, Robinson, (Hardy) LB - Edmunds, Edwards, Obongbemiga, Hyppolite, (Sewell) CB - Johnson, Stevenson, Gordon, Smith, Blackwell, (Frazier-PS) or (McCloud) S - Brisker, Byard, Hicks, Owens LS - Daly K - Santos P - Taylor I put the bubble players in parentheses. So the first decision will be to keep 2 or 3 QBs on the 53-man. Then the roster spot competitions come down to: 1. Jones vs Trapilo (to start) 2. Wheeler vs Monangai (53-man) 3. Scott vs Boykin (53-man) 4. Ford vs Pickens (53-man) 5. Robinson vs Hardy (53-man) 6. Hyppolite vs Sewell (53-man) 7. Frazier vs McCloud (53-man) So out of all the draft picks, it looks like just Trapilo will be competing for a starting spot.
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If a 7th rounder makes the 53-roster, it's a win. I think his future will come down to the health and recovery of Wheeler.
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I am definitely hoping for success, and I thought after the free agency they had, that this draft would "push them over the edge" in terms of the talent gap. However, it felt like TE and WR were closer to luxury picks than anything else, and a 5-win team can't afford luxury picks. So the gap didn't close as much as it could of with 4 picks in the top 62. Again, I hope I am wrong as hell. I might also feel this way because the Bears had some very high draft capital with their first 4 picks, but lost in trade backs with BUF (twice no less) where you usually gain capital. So combine the net loss with an expected gain, and the move backs felt bad. Every time they did that, it seemed like they missed out on the guys they would've targeted. Going from 41 to 56, Ezeiruaku, Tuimoloau, Ersery, Scourton, Oladejo, and Belton all came off the board.
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Again, going off consensus, they had the 2nd biggest reach of the draft with Hyppolite. I guess it is not that big of a deal, but still notable.
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I believe you listed 50 players out of 257 players drafted, and the Bears had 8 picks, and I believe, selected none of those 50, which is pretty wild.
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I would've rather had Grant at 10, then Kaleb Johnson instead of Turner at 62. To me, Grant+Johnson has more value than Loveland+Turner, but I could be wrong.
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It is always an initial reaction vs let's see how it plays out, but my initial reaction is mixed, which feels underwhelming when they had 4 picks in the first 62. Those 4 may all be starters Week 1, but for now just seems like all of them are rotational players at best.
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More along the lines of going against the consensus. It is not a bad draft, but did the Bears get any Day 1 starters in this draft with 4 picks in the top 62? Unless something changes, the Bears walked away with TE2, WR3, OT3, and DT4 with those picks when they could've easily had RB1, Edge2, or S1, but I guess the positional value was not there for them. This entire draft has felt very underwhelming to be honest. That may be while it feels this way for me when looking at the Bears picks.
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Michigan State OT/OG, a lot of experience, projects at OG or OC.
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Day 3 is all darts and projections, I get it. This draft has felt underwhelming all around.
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wtf, Luke Newman, OL, another UDFA player.
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Bears up, all these guys are available: RB: Martinez (123), Smith (153) S: Mickens (108), Crawford (146) DT: Toia (168) IOL: McLaughlin (135), Huber (141), Majors (175) Edge: Ivey (150)