adam

Here's the thread. Prediction: Bears lose by 13.

Thru 14 games, this is where Caleb ranks amongst qualified QBs: 2nd INT% 4th 10+ Yard Rushes (QB) 6th QB Pressure Rate 7th Attempts 7th Rushing Yards (QB) 13th Completions T-15th TD Passes 19th Passing Yards 23rd Passer Rating 26th QBR 26th EPA/DB 29th PFF 29th Comp% 29th CPOE 34th Sacks (last) 40th NFELO I would have hoped his QBR and Comp% was a little higher and he had a few less sacks. He has 3 more games to improve on some of these numbers. I was hoping for one more big game from him to push him ahead of Daniels and Nix.

The CAR pick will be interesting because the teams with the same record rotate per round. So the Bears have a chance to both get a better pick and a worse pick depending on the order. The hope is that CAR won't be the lowest team of any record with SoS. That would prevent them from being the team with the lowest 2nd round pick.

Yeah it is unfortunate and that is why everything needs context and you can't use one metric. His QB Rating was 86.9 and is now 87.7 on the season. He has 2,937 passing yards, 17 TD and 5 INT with 3 games to play. He should hit 3,500 passing yards and 20 TDs, which would be a top 10 rookie season for a QB.

It is just a combination of things. Promoting Brown to OC is one thing, but then 2 weeks later elevating him to HC was not ideal. At the same time you have players making business decisions and clearly not giving 100% on and off the field. Interim coaches rarely work out because the problem is at the organizational level. They need to clean house and get rid of hold overs. Every part of the org needs to be looked at, scouting, pro player evals, etc. Something is clearly wrong on how they evaluate talent compared to the rest of the league.

After throwing for over 300 against them last time, I really thought Caleb would hit at least 200 passing yards. He has a QBR of 25.3. So after 3 stellar games against GB, MIN, and DET, Caleb has fallen off the cliff again the last two games. He has played very polarizing this year. He either has a QBR over 60 or below 45. 5 games over 60 and 9 under 45. Some of this is on play calling, some on the O-Line, but a good chunk of this is on him. For me it seems like his accuracy is off, and they haven't even attempted any passes beyond 20 yards in several weeks. Like how can we be in Week 15 and the QB and WRs are not on the same sheet of music?

30-12, off by one lol, but about as bad as expected. You gotta love Kmet getting one target and one reception while Allen gets 13 targets and has 3 drops. Swift can't get a yard on two separate 4th and 1s. At least it will be easier for the next GM to see who to keep. There is just no way Poles survives this. How many more national tv embarrassments will it take?

Poles 3rd Round Draft Picks really showing out: Velus, Pickens, Amegasuck. I am sorry, but there is no defending this guy anymore. This roster is a hot mess. Detroit has way more players on IR yet are still winning. Also, this is not an emotional reaction, this is due to another 8 game losing streak in the last 3 years. This roster is not as good as you think. Sweat is overrated. 4.5 sacks for your Edge1 sucks. They have no Edge2, the healthy DTs are all backups. Edmunds is terrible without the salary and even worse with it. Just cut him already. Stevenson is just a goofball and shouldn't be a PS player at best. Owens is great for making a tackle after a 30 yard catch. At this point, they need to shed Edmunds, Walker, Stevenson, and Pickens on defense. They need 2x Edge, at least one more DT, MLB, CB, and S. So just 6 starters on defense, no biggie. On offense, 4x OLinemen, a RB, a real TE2, and a real WR3, so that is 7 more. So 13 key contributors, then a few top edge rotational guys. So about 16-18 key positions need to be addressed to get this roster to be competitive. On offense, the entire O-Line is terrible. Wright is serviceable, but he should not be letting Edge players with 1 sack sprint right by him untouched for an instant sack. He is good for one of those every other game. Swift is not an RB1, good for outside zone stuff and 3rd Down back stuff, but that's it. He is not an every down back. At least Brown has shown he is not the guy for the job. You can cross him off the list. This team looks worse now than before.

No problem, and it's odd that no one is talking about this. WAS and DEN have beat no one. Caleb and the Bears have had a tougher road with comparable stats so far, yet Daniels is the runaway favorite for OROY.

I am not opposed to Vrabel, the trend seems to be to go to an Offensive HC after a Defensive one. Lovie to Trestman, Fox to Nagy, now Dumbass Flus to ?

At least for Daniels and Nix, they are very schedule dependent, but no one will talk about that: DEN is 8-0 against .500 or worse teams and 1-5 against winning teams. DEN's signature win is against TB (8-6). WAS is 9-1 against .500 or worse teams and 0-4 against winning teams. WAS signature win is against ARZ (7-7). CHI is 3-4 against .500 or worse teams and 1-5 against winning teams. CHI signature win is against LAR (8-6).

So it is clear that QB wins are all that matter. Bo Nix threw for 130 yards with 3 TD and 3 INT, but won 31-13. Drake Maye threw for 202 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT and rushed for 1 TD and lost 30-17. Daniels threw for 226 yards with 2 TD and 0 INT and won 20-19. For rookie Pass Yardage, Daniels now has 3,045 and Nix has 2,972. Caleb has 2,746. So he needs 226 to tie Nix and 299 to tie Daniels. For TD Passes, Nix has 20 with 11 INT, Daniels has 17 and 6 while Caleb has 16-5. So if Caleb can throw 2-3 with over 250 yards, he would be right there with 3K passing yards and 18-19 TDs, but because the Bears keep losing, Daniels is the run away OROY.

Yeah, I don't think they have a chance against MIN, but SEA with Howell at QB is a train wreck. DET's defense is worse than the Bears right now and GB may rest starters in Week 18.

I have seen some people suggesting this, but knowing what the Bears gave up for Mack, at the end of the day, I don't know if 2x 1st rounders would be worth it knowing how much help the OL needs. What do you think? If the Bears offered up their next 2x 1st rounders, would you trade for Parsons? I wouldn't because the Bears need to build with the draft, and I would rather they gain draft capital than trade it away.

I know Vrabel is still in the discussion, but it seems like these 3 guys would be the leading candidates as Offensive Options at HC: 1. Ben Johnson - DET is 3rd in EPA/Play, 1st in TDs, 2nd in YPG, best OLine in NFL, Goff 4th in TD Passes, 2nd in Passing Yards 2. Joe Brady - BUF is 2nd in EPA/Play, 2nd in TDs, 8th in YPG, Allen is an alien 3. Liam Coen - TB is 6th in EPA/Play, 5th in TDs, 3rd in YPG, Mayfield 3rd in TD Passes, 4th in Passing Yards It is really hard to strip away some of the artificial things that would not carry over to the Bears, if one of these guys came over. Obviously the first thing that stands out is the DET's OLine, Ben Johnson would not have that in CHI. Brady would not have the alien in Josh Allen, but would still have Caleb. Coen is somehow doing that with Baker Mayfield, no Chris Godwin, and a rookie RB in Irving. In a way, that offense has been the most impressive given the players and team to work with. Mayfield never had a 4K passing season until last year in TB, and is about to have his 2nd one. He has 60 TD and 24 INT with TB over the past 2 seasons, but only had 27 TD and 21 INT in his last 3 previous seasons before that. TB is also 3rd in 3rd Down Conversions at 48.3, ahead of DET at 45.8 and BUF at 43.8. So it would come down to which one can be a HC, unlike what you are seeing in MIA with Mike McDaniels.

SEA might have lost Geno Smith, DET looks very beatable, and GB may rest starters in Week 18. So the Bears could have 3 winnable games to close out the season. If the season ended today: WC1 MIN at LAR WC2 GB at TB WC3 WAS at PHI I don't think anyone wants to face PHI, but the other two games are very winnable in LAR and TB.

Now the injuries are piling up and MIN can tie DET with a win. DET looks very beatable as their defense is terrible with all the injuries. PHI now looks like the team to beat in the NFC. If BUF can get over the KC Kurse, a PHI vs BUF Super Bowl is very possible.

So last season, LAC won 5 games and picked 5th. This year, the Bears could win 4 games and pick 9th. Here are the teams that could potentially pass the Bears: NYJ 4-10, play LAR, @BUF, and MIA (chance to beat MIA) TEN 3-11, play @IND, @JAX, and HOU (chance to beat IND and JAX) JAX 3-11, play @LVR, TEN, @IND (chance to win all 3) CLE 3-11, play @CIN, MIA, and @BAL (chance to beat MIA) CAR 3-11, play ARZ, @TB, and @ATL NE 3-11, play @BUF, LAC, BUF So realistically, only 2 teams have a chance to get to 5 wins, the Jets and either TEN or JAX. So as a 4-win team, the Bears best draft pick looks to be #7 if NYJ wins one more and either JAX or TEN win 2 more. The Commanders picked 2nd last year with 4 wins. Ugh. If the Bears happen to win 1 game and finish 5-12, they could finish 9th or 10th, depending on NO who plays @GB, LVR, and @TB. I am assuming they would beat LVR to go to 6 wins, giving CHI the 9th pick at 5-12. If in an alternate universe the Bears somehow split the last 4 games and finish 6-11, which seems like the extreme highest possible record, it looks like they would drop to 12th because there are currently 6 6-win teams and 4 of them should win at least one game. The hope is all of them do, which would make the Bears only swap with NO at 6 wins to pick 10th. So in summary: 4-13 - Most likely 8th, but between 7th and 9th. 5-12 - Most likely 9th, but between 9th and 10th. 6-11 - Most likely 12th, but between 10th and 14th.

Braxton probably is sick to his stomach due to the losing streak, just like us.

Jets win, now have 4 wins. Panthers lose, keeping the Bears 2nd round pick in the top 5. Bengals beat Titans, so the Cowboys and Bengals move to 6 wins. So the Jets and Bears are the only 4 win teams, drafting 8 and 9. The Saints are now the only 5 win team, so even with 1 more win, the Bears would draft no worse than 10th.

Yeah it was just the way the draft fell, I didn't want a CB there, he just happened to be there as the highest-rated player.

It is mock draft season again lol. After all of last year's intrigue with 2x first rounders, now the Bears go into the draft with 2x 2nd rounders. This basically assures them of having a chance to get 3-4x Day One starters. Using the PFF Mock Simulator, after going thru it a few times, this scenario seems possible based on the current player grades: 9. Will Campbell, OT (replaces Jones) 36. Trey Amos, CB (replaces Stevenson) 41. T.J. Sanders, DT (pair with Dexter and Billings) 73. Jalen Royals, WR (WR3 assuming Allen does not return) 145. Luke Kandra, OG (new LG or RG) 201. Andrew Mukuba, S (Brisker insurance) The only thing missing is Edge. What do you think?

Now articles are coming out about Poles. Supposedly Eberflus was going to be fired by Indy before the Bears hired him, LOL. Also, on Davis signing, Poles was warned about his work ethic and still signed him to a big deal. If you take a step back and just look at everything Poles has done, there is nothing in there that is spectacular. He got lucky on the CAR trade and made a league average trade for Swift after whiffing on Claypool.

Here are the NFC North's draft picks from each team from 2022 and 2023 with an AV of 5 or more, with an honorable mention for a 2023 pick with AV of 4. This is how each team did: GB (9) - 14 picks in the first 5 rounds, 3 first rounders 2023 - Reed - 9, Wicks - 6, (Kraft - 4) 2022 - Walker - 13, Watson - 11, Doubs - 11, Tom - 12, Enagbare - 7, Walker - 10 DET (8) - 12 picks in the first 5 rounds, 4 first rounders 2023 - Gibbs - 10, Campbell - 5, LaPorta - 9, (Branch - 4) 2022 - Hutchinson - 18, Williams - 5, Joseph - 10, Rodriguez - 8 CHI (6) - 13 picks in the first 5 rounds, 1 first rounder 2023 - Wright - 8, Stevenson - 6, (Roschon - 4) 2022 - Jones - 13, Brisker - 9, Gordon - 7 MIN (3) - 12 picks in the first 5 rounds, 2 first rounders 2023 - Addison - 7 2022 - Ingram - 13, Evans - 6 So a few things stand out. Detroit having 4 first rounders in 2 years really helped a ton. 6 of their 8 high AV players were drafted in the first 45 picks. GB is almost the polar opposite. Only 2 out of their 5 picks in the top 42 hit. They made their money between the late 2nd and 5th rounds. The Bears were clearly hurt by not having 2 first rounders, but Poles still got Brisker and Gordon in the 2nd. His big hit is Jones who may be replaced next year. Stevenson is listed but is probably not even a starter anymore and Roschon is nothing more than an RB2 or RB3. So Wright and Gordon may end up being all they get out of these drafts in a year or two (assuming Brisker's health). That is not good. To have sustained success you have to have 3-4 players contribute per draft year. Somehow Minnesota is good without any good drafts in recent years. This will catch up to them eventually because the bulk of their players are coming out of their rookie deals. The new GM really inherited a lot of good players. They were never in a full rebuild like the Bears were, but it is still shocking to see only 3 players on the list.

Yeah you are probably right, which means unless PIT wants to move up, the Bears are standing pat at whatever top 10 pick they have. I am just hoping a QB or two go off the board before they pick.