adam

This is an amazing hire. He was my top choice, but I expected Monken or McCarthy. This is not Nagy 2.0. Johnson called plays for 3 years in DET. In all 3, they had a top 5 scoring and yardage offense. The last time the Bears had that was in the early 60s. If you just go back in the Bears coaching hires, this one is the biggest fish. Flus was meh, Nagy was exciting, but a huge question mark about playcalling, which ultimately was his downfall. Fox was always just an interim guy to get the locker room back after Trestman. So Lovie was the last coach of this caliber. If they fix the OLine, get a true speedster and upgrade at TE2, this offense is comparable to DET next offseason. RB is about the only thing that the Bears would be lacking in, unless they sign or draft someone there. However, the WR Room is already solid with Moore and Odunze. Obviously Kmet at TE, and the biggest position is QB where Johnson is going from Goff to Williams. Nothing was easy for Williams, yet he still broke numerous rookie records. Goff numbers tell the story, he regressed in LA, they traded him, he struggled in Year 1 without Johnson, then Johnson arrived and since then he has AVERAGED over 4,500 passing yards a season with over 32 TDs.

Roquan is great and overrated at the same time which is hard to do.

Yeah, the script flipped pretty quick. Love is way to careless with the ball. Goff folds under pressure, and Darnold may not even play in the division next year. So year, Caleb may be the best QB in the NFC North next year.

After watching two weeks of the playoffs, for how bad the Bears played this season, they played way too many of these teams close enough that with small changes, the outcomes could've been much different. Just like 2023, the Bears were a better team than their record. We now know a lot of this was on Flus and the coaching staff. The Bears had 5 games decided by a FG or less, two others by 6 or less, and then the NE game where they didn't even show up. That is 8 games. If they just won half of those, that is a 9-win team. Win 75%, and it's an 11-win team. With the right coaching staff, a few key FAs, a solid draft, and this team will look magically transformed come next summer.

The Lions scored 31 pts in the playoffs with 4 INTs and a fumble lost.

Turnovers were the theme of the weekend, DET, BAL, and LAR all lost and had multiple turnovers. DET threw 4 INTs and had a fumble lost.

Looking at the paths for each team, WAS had one of the easiest paths to the NFC Championship game. First TB, who was only 5-4 at home, then to DET where they had 16 Day 1 starters out. No other path for a WC team was easier. Good for them. MIN was always playing by fire over the last few years. No coach or team have won more 1-score games than MIN. So their overall record was inflated. They also had to travel the farthest to play on the road against a team that was finally healthy. So neither of the MIN or DET losses surprise me. Goff shit the bed like he does, and Darnold came back down to earth. I am surprised those games didn't occur more often.

I feel like McCarthy is the equivalent of an offensive Tomlin, who has a high floor. Then if the GM can get some superstars on the roster, that is what makes the difference. I like the core of Caleb + Rome + DJ + Kmet. I think they need an upgrade at RB to be an elite skill position group. The Oline needs a complete overhaul. One interesting thing I haven't see talked about, who is going to be the DC? Would someone like Rivera come in as a DC with someone like Johnson as the HC?

I am kinda at the point where I want Johnson, would be fine with Monken or Brady (for Caleb Dev), but understand if they went with McCarthy. Wild card is Matt Campbell. Thoughts?

Remember GB was 1-5 in the DIV and a blocked FG from 0-6. They should not have been a playoff team. For MIN, McVay knows the KOC playbook, because it is his. The league watered the playoffs down when they added the 7th team. Only one #2 seed has ever lost a #7 seed, and that was DAL. It feels like there are way too many non-competitive games this year.

From watching way too much all-22, there are no hot routes, I have no clue why. A TE or WR should be running a quick slant or in cutting route for an easy completion towards the pressure since that is where the vacated spot is at. I rarely see that. When it happens, I ask, where was this all year and why don't they go back to it?

Yeah one in 2025 and one in 2026. Basically replaces the lost 4th rounder since it is at the end of the 3rd Round, but would give the Bears 5 picks in the top 105, which they would need to hit on.

McCarthy immediately becomes the top candidate. HC experience, offensive guru, has worked with a bunch of different QBs, including Rodgers, which Caleb emulates on the field. He checks all the marks. For him, it is an easy decision. He gets Caleb, and gets to beat GB twice a year for the next 20. I would be fine with him or Johnson tbh.

My only concern with Daniels was staying healthy. Unless he adds some meat on that frame, he is at risk for how much he runs. If he stays healthy, I feel like he will be a consistent 3,600 / 750 QB Outside of the Bears game, the most yards he ever threw for was 275. The most combined yards he put up was 354 and that was with 127 rushing yards against ATL. Caleb hit that number 3 times on a terrible team. Since he is a one-read, half the field QB, I think he is close to his ceiling, maybe a 3,800 / 1K guy, but that is max, which is really good. I just don't think you are going to see many 4K passing seasons from him ever. I could be wrong, but if you watch his games, his stats are saved by a huge chunk play on a busted coverage. 11 games with a 30+ yard pass, with 6 over 50. That is not sustainable. Another thing that is not sustainable, winning games on the last play in regulation, they have won their last 6 like that and I believe 8 on the season. Not sustainable.

So far it feels a little watered down compared to recent years. 3 games decided by 2 TDs or more. WAS seems to be blessed with the best luck. Down by 4, TB fumbles on their own 13 yard line, 4 plays later, WAS scores a TD and never trails again. They won by 3, so that play was the deciding factor and at least a 7 pt swing if not more. The best part of this weekend was seeing the GB frauds get sent packing where Love throws for 3 INTs and 0 TDs. Their only TD drive was when Jacobs accounted for 55 of the 78 yards. Herbert was just as bad if not worse than Love against HOU. He threw 4 picks and was sacked 4 times. So Herbert + Love threw more INTs (7) this weekend than Caleb did all season.

He ended up with 68 sacks, exactly 4 per game. If he can cut that down to 51, it would still be near the league lead but down 25%. Also, when he breaks contain, he tries to extend the play with a pass until the very last possible second. However, he has to know down and distance. There were several plays where he could easily get the 5-6 yards for a first by running, but he elected to stay behind the LOS until the defense swarmed, ending in an incompletion.

I dunno, I think there is still a Bears tax. I also think it is a name thing. Here are the players with double-digit losses to make the All-Pro Team on Offense and Defense, and none were hurt by a bad record: Myles Garrett, Cleveland 3-14 - No issues, potential DPoY Christian Gonzalez, New England 4-13 (20th PFF, 2 INT) > Made it over Jaylon and a few other CBs that were better Brock Bowers, Las Vegas 4-13 - No issues, best TE in the NFL Fred Warner, San Francisco 6-11 - Annual pastime, coverage skills on the decline Kyle Juszczyk, San Francisco 6-11 - 4 FBs in the league, but let's keep giving the position honors George Kittle, San Francisco 6-11 - 78 receptions to McBride's 111, it's the name CeeDee Lamb, Dallas 7-10 - Annual thing

Yeah, the bias is crazy. The voters hate Bears. Johnson should've been at least 2nd Team, and Gordon should've had at least a vote. Dexter got snubbed, but I think it was the low snap count. I will have to check on the others, but only 356 pass rushes seems low.

I hope I am wrong, but I don't know if the Bears want to wait 5 weeks to hire their new HC once these other candidates start getting hired elsewhere. The worst case scenario is they wait for Johnson, everyone else gets hired, he decides to stay with DET and the Bears end up with one of worst candidates.

I forgot to add SoS for the QBs. You cannot tell me that the ease of schedule didn't have anything to do with their overall numbers and W-L record. Williams still put up comparable numbers facing infinitely better teams and had to do it playing from behind most of the time (when they know you are passing). I equate it to a track race, Caleb is in the outer lane, Daniels is in the first lane, and Nix is in the middle. In addition to the lanes, Caleb also has a 10 degree incline while Daniels is running downhill at 12 degrees. Williams (.554 SoS) Attempts while leading: 98 Attempts while trailing: 410 Daniels (.436 SoS) Attempts while leading: 304 Attempts while trailing: 189 Nix (.502) Attempts while leading: 226 Attempts while trailing: 224

There are a few teams with cap issues, the Saints are one of them, thanks Ryan Pace. Erik McCoy looked like a potential trade target, but if the Saints want to reduce their 2025 cap, trading him would actually increase it, so that is a no-go. Which leads to another interesting potential issue in a few years. If teams continue to add these void years as a way to make the contracts better for the current cap, at some point that is going to come to a head where you will basically have 4-5 main guys and 45+ league minimum guys on your team. I hope it doesn't become the NBA.

Here is what I am tracking as of this morning. I tried to add their availability, and after this weekend a few more names may become available. Current HCs Thomas Brown (CHI Int HC) - Not in playoffs, #28 Ranked Offense Former HCs Mike Vrabel (former TEN HC) - 1st Interview complete Pete Carroll (former SEA HC) - Thursday, 9JAN Current OCs Drew Petzing (ARZ) - 1st Interview complete, #12 Ranked Offense Mike Kafka (NYG) - 1st Interview Thursday, 9JAN, #31 Ranked Offense Ben Johnson (DET) - 1st Virtual Interview Saturday, 10JAN, #1 Ranked Offense --------- Unavailable until after the team is eliminated from playoffs---------------- Joe Brady (BUF) - In playoffs, #2 Ranked Offense Todd Monken (BAL) - In playoffs, #3 Ranked Offense Kliff Kingsbury (WAS) - In playoffs, #5 Ranked Offense Arthur Smith (PIT) - In playoffs, #16 Ranked Offense Current DCs Aaron Glenn (DET) - 1st Virtual Interview Saturday, 10JAN, #7 Ranked Defense Anthony Weaver (MIA), #10 Ranked Defense --------- Unavailable until after the team is eliminated from playoffs---------------- Vance Joseph (DEN) - In playoffs, #3 Ranked Defense Brian Flores (MIN, former HC) - In playoffs, #5 Ranked Defense College HCs Matt Campbell (Iowa St 2016-Present) David Shaw (Stanford 2011-2022)

Is this the list so far? 1. Johnson 2. Vrabel 3. Monken 4. Flores 5. McCarthy 6. Petzing 7. Glenn 8. Shaw 9. Smith 10. Weaver 11. Brown 12. Kafka

It was 5-7 games wins depending on how you counted them. Just say it is the low end of 5, they are a 10-win team and 4-2 in the Division with very little difference outside of not having Flus as the bone-headed HC. Lost to SEA 6-3 Lost to DET 23-20 Lost to MIN 30-27(OT) Lost to GB 20-19 Lost to WAS 18-15 Should not have lost to NE, IND and this follows a season where they had 3 games like that and should've been a 10-win the previous season. So there are at least 8 wins in the last two years that were more than winnable, they were almost guaranteed and they still lost.

Two QBs in NFL history have thrown over 400 passing attempts while trailing with +10 TDs and fewer 5 INTs in a season. Tom Brady (2022) and Caleb Williams (2024). Caleb had the 2nd most plays while trailing for a QB in NFL history at 531, only trailing Lawrence (2021).