adam

For Bears vs Giants. Just based off EPA/Play, the average number of plays for both teams, and their previous scoring (both OFF and DEF), the most likely outcome is 31-23 Bears. Bears OFF +0.04 vs Giants DEF +0.07 / +0.055 x 64.5 plays= (+3.55 DIFF) 26.88 Bears O vs 27.67 Giants D = 30.8 (31 pts) Giants OFF -0.06 vs Bears DEF -0.02 / -0.04 x 60.5 plays= (-2.42 DIFF) 21.89 Giants O vs 28.38 Bears D = 22.7 (23 pts) The Giants Offense was heavily dependent on Skattebo who accounted for over 500 yards in just over 7 games played. The Giants 2 wins came when they ran the ball over 150 yards.

At his current pace, Williams would have 34 fewer total yards than Goff had in his first year with Johnson as his OC, but that is because I did not include any projected receiving stats. If Williams catches 2-3 more for the entire year, he would be really close to matching Goff's yardage. For TDs, he is already projected to exceed it with fewer turnovers: Goff 2022 - 4516 Total Yards, 29 TD, 12 TO (Made Pro Bowl) Williams 2025P - 4482 Total Yards, 32 TD, 11 TO (Does not include projected Receiving Stats)

COVID Year I believe, and it was just Joe Tryon back then to TB.

That is fair, but that is why you wait until the sample size is large enough to be useful. In this case, we are basically through half of the season with a top 5 offense. Even with a tougher schedule, that will drop some, but I doubt they fall out of the top 10.

Of the 22 attempts from the 11-20, 15 of them were 10 yards or more to go. 5 of those were over 10 yards to go. That is what is missing. In the other 7 plays with under 10 yards to go, he completed 5 passes (5-7), with 3 for 1st Downs and 1 TD. The one INT he had in this range was the crazy tip and catch by Crosby, which was kinda fluky. Of the 7 3rd Downs between the 11-20, Caleb completed 5-7 passes, one incomplete being the Crosby INT, and one to Rome against DAL. So it seems like negative plays or penalties have more to do with the RZ troubles than something specifically related to Williams.

It is a weird situation because it's not the entire Red Zone. It looks like it is between the 10 and the 20. In that range, Williams is at his worst, 12-22, 54.5%, 1 TD, 1 INT. Inside the 10, he gets better, 7-11, 63.6%, 5 TD, 0 INT. So there are a lot of factors, that could impact that range, down and distance, play call, etc. I would have to map out all 22 attempts and see what the subset of plays looked like, because just on the surface they look the same, but 3rd and 15 at the 18 is much different than 3rd and 4 from the 8.

Low cost, low risk move here. Former 1st Round pick.

It is funny seeing Edmunds considered an old timer at 27 and only a year older than Brisker. Moving Edmunds out of the middle was the key. Byard has also exceeded my expectations. There was a year where Jaylon Johnson would've had like 10 INTs, but they kept getting called or a penalty would negate them. Even with 4, Byard should have at least 6 right now.

He may not be getting much attention, but he is currently top 5 in tackles per game, is tied for the league lead in INTs with 4, has 1 sack, and a 67.2 Passer Rating against. For how bad the pash rush has been, he has been playing very solid in his new position.

Caleb's EPA/Dropback is +0.07, which is the same as Justin Herbert's, higher than Mayfield's, Hurts, Nix, Daniels, Rodgers, etc.

The Bears offensive rankings after 8 games with last season's rankings as a comparison. It is like two different teams. Point Per Game: 26.9 (6th) > 18.2 (28th) Yards Per Game: 378.4 (T-3rd) > 283.5 (32nd) Yards Per Play: 5.9 (T-4th) > 4.5 (32nd) EPA/Play: +0.04 (9th) > -0.13 (26th) Pass Yds Per Game: 234.0 (10th) > 181.5 (31st) Rush Yds Per Game: 144.4 (2nd) > 102.0 (25th) The last time the Bears had an offense that ranked in the top 10 in Pts and Yds was 2013 (2nd in Pts, 8th in Yds). Last season's top 10 scoring teams all had winning records, and 9 out of 10 made the playoffs. The only team that didn't make the playoffs was the Bengals at 9-8. However, they were nowhere near as balanced as the Bears' offense is this year.

Another factor in this game is that the Giants will more than likely be sellers at the deadline, so they may have lesser of a team come Sunday. Not that it should matter, the Bears should beat them regardless, but that could be another factor.

You need some psychos on your team lol.

With 1,916 Passing Yards, Williams is on pace for 3,832 in 16 games, and 4,071 in 17 games. For his career, his 17-game average is up to 3,711 Pass Yds, 22 TD, 7 INT. Williams already owns the 5th best single season passing season for a Bears QB with 3,541 Pass Yards, Cutler owns 2nd-4th with 3,812 - 3,659 yds. Caleb can break all of them this year.

When I saw him get picked up by one arm off the ground like a child against Jalen Carter, I was out.

and for all the Daniels stuff, the biggest negative I had on him was injury risk. I always thought he could be a top 12-15 QB but his body type does not suit his play style. We are now on his 3rd injury in less than 25 games.

I had some different AIs look it up and I could not find 4 TDs in one game scored that fast unless it was multiple returns, DEF TDs, etc.

One of the weirder things I found is that Caleb is borderline elite with more opportunities. He has a 23-4 TD-INT Ratio in games where he passes for 225 yards or more (11 games). Below 225? 9-6 TD-INT ratio. More yards don't normally imply a better game, but for him it does. Of his 13 career games with a Passer Rating above 90.0, 9 of them occurred with 225 or more passing yards. He only has two games with 225 Passing Yards with a QB Rating below 95, a 80.8 against IND where he threw for 363 Yards (Career High), 2 TD, and 2 INT, and 77.2 against BAL this year.

It's wild when the article mentions guys in this light, yet the unit looks like the worst in the league: "Josh Blackwell, Elijah Hicks, Jahdae Walker, and Travis Homer all round out a solid core of players known for their ability to make plays in the third phase."

Caleb hasn't had the monster game from start to finish yet. Dallas was close but there were plays left on the field. They just scored 47 against CIN and they probably could've scored 60. If you zoom out a little bit, and in this case remove the best and worst games as anomalies, he is actually pretty consistent and the one thing I notice is he really has a high floor. I think most were expecting him to have a high ceiling, but the floor would be very volatile. In reality, it has been the opposite, and he has had 6 games within a top 12 QB range, 1 game in the top 3, and one game in the bottom 10.

It helps having the easiest SOS in the NFL to pad some wins but they won the games they were supposed to win, so I give him that. Slightly different defenses they were going up against, and CIN was never down by more than 2 scores which is sort of the magic number that late. Once it goes to 3 scores that late, it is basically game over. That is why the Pick-6 called back was so huge. It was a 14-pt swing in seconds. If you didn't watch the WAS game, the Commanders had no chance. The game was over at half, and all SEA did in the 3rd was extend the lead and they had a 31 pt lead with 8 mins to go in the 4th Quarter. Again, you play him if you have a chance to win the game. It was out of hand at that point. So typically you pull your starter to avoid the risk of injury. Quinn didn't.

4 TDs in 2 mins and 2 seconds total to be exact. I doubt there is another game where the team allowed 29 pts in 122 seconds.

PFF Grades Top 5 Offense Wright - 94.1 Jackson - 91.1 Williams - 90.8 Loveland - 86.3 Dalman - 84.8 Top 5 Defense Booker - 90.0 Byard - 76.9 Edmunds - 67.8 Sweat - 65.0 Dexter - 60.4 Worst Offense Odunze - 51.8 Worst Defense Stevenson - 26.5 Wright is playing at an All Pro level.

Giants defense is 27th in EPA/Play and 31st against the run. They allow 5.5 YPC. It seems like the Bears will be able to control the ball and the clock, and throw when the defense starts bringing that extra guy into the box. The Giants offense is 22nd for EPA/Play, but a lot of that was Skattebo who is on IR. They probably are closer to 25-30th now without him. Robinson+Slayton is 3-4 levels below Chase+Higgins. The current DB group should be up to that challenge.

Mayfield and Allen are MVP candidates, and Williams is right there, but if you listen to the media, Williams is the only QB in the NFL missing easy throws, etc, etc. Mayfield - 1919 Pass Yds, 13 TD, 2 INT (6-2) Williams - 1916 Pass Yds, 12 TD, 4 INT (5-3) Allen - 1833 Pass Yds, 13 TD, 4 INT (6-2) The media is so bad that you would think that Williams has the worst Comp% in the league or at least the lowest of any 2nd Year QB. Nix, Penix, McCarthy are all lower, and Daniels is only 1% higher. The standout is Maye who has had the easiest schedule of the bunch. This was at the point of Goff's time with Johnson where you saw a visible improvement to his game. I am hoping we see that from Williams from here on out.