adam

Yeah, pretty much. Also, if they just went for the XP, that last second FG would've won it.

That was absolutely on Caleb, but where is the dump off, hot route, no one open. He is forced to be Superman. That is going to happen.

The Flus defense is now all fluff. 4-man that gets no pressure with coverage that plays off? Hilariously bad.

There is zero doubt, absolutely zero doubt that Caleb Williams is elite, and a franchise QB. He just torched the Vikings vaunted defense for 330 passing yards and 2 TDs while scoring on back to back drives in less than 30 seconds. Unbelievable poise. Regardless of the outcome, we have our QB.

How Minnesota has scored 24 pts: 34 yard reception + Nick Mullen gets 3rd Down conversion - 3 pts Carter muffs punt - 7pts 69 yard reception - 3 pts FG Blocked + 35yd DPI - 7pts 45 yard reception - 7pts

Can you believe holding Justin Jefferson to 1 reception for 7 yards, 0 TDs on 4 targets and losing?

If it wasn't the Bears it is probably a good idea. If you get it, you can win with a TD+XP or tie with 2x FGs. If you don't get it, you can still tie with a TD+2PT.

I am glad Caleb finally got a passing TD, but man, I am so sick of targeting Allen, which missed on the 2pt attempt.

How Minnesota has scored 24 pts: Carter muffs punt - 7pts 69 yard reception - 3 pts FG Blocked + 35yd DPI - 7pts 45 yard reception - 7pts 100% coaching

Flus can take Hightower with him. Back to back blocked FGs in the last two weeks, now a muffed punt by Carter. Normally subpar coverage units. What does the Bears ST do well like they have a good coach?

So how bad is Matt Eberflus? He challenged another play call that was not overturned, now over a year since he got one correct. Then when faced with a 4th and 4, he runs the FG unit out to run them off, that only gave Caleb 15 seconds to get everyone set, pass is incomplete. Turnover on downs. It is like he finds a new way to lose every week, every half, every quarter, every drive.

About what we would expect for a first half. Bears losing 14-10. Flus with terrible time management at the end of the half. He refuses to blitz which gives Darnold all day long to throw, which has led to 3 huge plays for Minnesota. If not for a strip forced fumble by Owens, the Vikings would be up 21-10. Outside of 1 bad throw, Williams has looked solid. 2 drops so far, otherwise, Williams' stats would be better. Even against one of the best defenses in the NFL, Williams has some impressive halftime stats. Compare his to some of the other rookie QBs at half: Williams 16-22, 72.7%, 176 yds, 8.0 Y/A Daniels 9-16, 56.3%, 57 yds, 3.6 Y/A, 1 INT Maye 6-11, 54.5%, 49 yds, 4.5 Y/A

So now we have to sift thru the noise and figure out if Poles is actually good or not because we know the answer on Flus, it has never been more obvious that he is just a boob. For Poles, here are his 1-4th round draft picks, you have to hit on most of these and the 1st rounders have to become close to Pro Bowl level players: 2022 - Gordon - should've been OL Brisker - On IR Jones Jr - released 2023 - Wright - when not hurt, he is not playing like a top 10 pick, could've had Jalen Carter here Dexter - has improved from his rookie year, but still just a rotational guy Stevenson - showed some flashes in his rookie year, but now is the worst CB in the NFL Pickens - waste of a pick, should've been OL Johnson - decent backup RB Scott - healthy scratch all season in year 2 2024 - Williams - no-brainer pick, but Daniels and Nix have outperformed him so far, something to watch Odunze - I love Odunze, but Poles could've traded down and gotten Thomas Jr AND another pick that could've been used on an Edge, DT, or OL Amegadjie - Head scratcher with his known injury while other OL went after him are playing at elite levels. Could've had Goncalves, Zinter, Puni, Bortolini, or Limmer (6th round). If you take a step back, that is terrible roster construction, especially when the big money when to your MLB in FA. Edmunds and Allen take up $45M in cap space. Walker makes close to $9M. None of those guys are playing up to their contracts.

The top 3 have to be in the trenches, any OLman, DT, or Edge.

For this week, we have TB vs NYG, and NE vs MIA that will have draft consequences. Ideally, we would want NE and NYG to win this week, though unlikely. If TB and MIA win like expected, the Bears would drop to #12.

Sanders or Ward will both go in the top 10. Sanders will go 1 or 2. Travis Hunter may go #1 as well. Will Cambell is the beast OL out of LSU who will go in the top 10, so will Kelvin Banks out of Texas. I did a better deep dive, in reality, a lot would have to go right for every other team to get to 5 wins to allow the Bears to pick #1. At best they will probably draft between #5-7.

Looking at future games, the Bears are underdogs in every game. So there is a scenario where the Bears can get the #1 pick 3 years in a row, but super unlikely. Due to the crazy SoS, they will lose the tiebreaker to every team. The Bears currently draft 14th. Assuming they lose out and go 4-13. What would be the most likely pick range. It will obviously come down to the other teams below the Bears at the moment. 14. CHI 4-6, plays 0 of 7 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 4-13. 13. TB 4-6, plays 6 of 7 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 8-9. 12. MIA 4-6, plays 4 of 7 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 7-10. 11. CIN 4-7, plays 3 of 6 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 6-11. 10. NO 4-7, plays 3 of 6 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 6-11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 9. DAL 3-7, plays 4 of 7 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 5-12. 8. CAR 3-7, plays 3 of 7 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 5-12. 7. NYJ 3-8, plays 3 of 6 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 5-12. 6. NE 3-8, plays 1 of 6 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 4-13. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5. LVR 2-8, plays 3 of 7 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 4-13. 4. NYG 2-8, plays 3 of 7 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 4-13. 3. CLE 2-8, plays 2 of 7 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 3-14. 2. TEN 2-8, plays 3 of 7 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 4-13. 1. JAX 2-9, plays 4 of 6 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 4-13. So if the Bears lose out, they would more than likely pick #7, with a possibility to move to #5. Due to bad teams playing each other, it is virtually impossible for more than 7 teams to finish at 4-13 or worse. 1. CLE 3-14 2. NE 4-13 3. JAX 4-13 4. TEN 4-13 5. NYG 4-13 6. LVR 4-13 7. CHI 4-13 ------------- 8. CAR 5-12 9. NYJ 5-12 10. DAL 5-12 If the Bears win 1 game, and finish 5-12, they would draft 10th. They could draft as high as 9th or as low as 12th. 1. CLE 3-14 2. NE 4-13 3. JAX 4-13 4. TEN 4-13 5. NYG 4-13 6. LVR 4-13 ------------- 7. CAR 5-12 8. NYJ 5-12 9. DAL 5-12 10. CHI 5-12 If the Bears win 2 games, and finish 6-11, they would draft 12th with a chance to draft 11th or 13th.

PFF is wild but in this case, I think they actually use the raw stat for drops. From other sites, it looks like Allen and Odunze each have 3 drops, Moore has zero apparently. I have no clue what a drop is anymore. I swear there have been passes that have hit Moore in the hands and he flat out dropped it.

Hell, they probably could've traded down and drafted Thomas, got a 2nd round pick and another pick in 2025.

Honestly, he is one of the worst HCs in the entire NFL over the last decade. At first they blamed the rebuild, then it was Fields, now what is the excuse?

Looking at unit EPA comparisons: CHI 24th OFF, 27th Pass, 12th Rush, TTT 2.86, QBP 38.1 MIN 1st DEF, 7th Pass, 1st Rush, TTT 2.78, QBP 37.2 On offense, Caleb won't really feel too much difference as his TTT and QBP are almost the same as what MIN has done. The biggest factor looks to be the rush defense. MIN 14th OFF, 13th Pass, 21st Rush, TTT 3.06, QBP 36.3 CHI 8th DEF, 3rd Pass, 20th Rush, TTT 2.93, QBP 34.4 On defense, MIN is actually a middle of the road offense. Outside of JJ, it is even less. The Bears will be forcing Darnold to throw faster than he is used to which may cause his pressure rate to go up.

If you zoom out a little around Caleb's stats, considering the last few games, he really is doing amazing. So he has 2,016 passing yards in 10 games which is good for 21st in the league. Kyler Murray in 10 games? 2,058 (42 more). Justin Herbert, 2,186. Jalen Hurts, 2,197. Then 11 games, Nix with 2,275, and Daniels with 2,338. So his production is right there, one more "good/great" game and he is in the middle of all the listed QBs for passing yardage. All the while he is the only QB in those names in the top 10 in Pressure Rate and sacks. Caleb started the season with a bunch of INTs, but since then has been stellar taking care of the ball. He is tied for 6th for Turnover Worthy Passes now down to 2.1%, even though is ADOT is 10th at 8.3. Somehow PFF only has receivers listed with 8 drops on the season. That is hard to believe as it feels like there have been at least 1-2 a game. Caleb is also 6th in Rushing for a QB with only 10 fewer yards than Josh Allen in one fewer start. He is tied for the 2nd most 10+ yard runs for QBs trailing only Lamar Jackson.

Bowers has had the luxury of a ton of targets. Same with a few other TEs compared to Kmet. If Kmet had their number of targets, in most cases his stats would look even better than theirs, in some cases by a lot. Kmet leads all TEs in Catch% at 86.5 and is 3rd in EPA/Rec for TEs. Bowers: Targets - 89, Receptions - 70, 702 yds, 3 TD If Kmet had 2x the volume: Kmet: Targets - 74, Receptions - 64, 716 yds, 6 TD and if you compare Kmet's projected volume numbers with the next few TEs, you can see his numbers exceed theirs as well. Kelce: Targets - 80, Receptions - 62, 507 yds, 2 TD Otton: Targets - 70, Receptions - 49, 456 yds, 4 TD McBride: Targets - 65, Receptions - 49, 552 yds, 0 TD Waldron really messed up this offense. Hopefully we can see a solid stretch of 7 games with increased volume for Kmet.

At Swift's current pace, it would only take him 15 more years to hit that mark, when he is 40 years old.

With 10 games down, here are the updated franchise rankings: Caleb Williams, who is on pace for 3,427 passing yards would easily be the Bears single-season rookie record, but also the 5th best passing season for a Bears QB ever. That same total would put him 23rd on the Bears all-time list for career passing yards. He would then only need 3,248 to pass Justin Fields for 10th on the all-time list next season. To become the franchise passing leader, he will need a 2nd contract, and would probably hit it in his 6th or 7th season. Cutler did it in 7.25 seasons. Swift is currently 72nd on the Bears all-time rushing yards list. At his current pace, he would break into the top 45 by the end of the year. At his current pace, he can actually crack the top 25 best rushing seasons in franchise history. Swift can crack the top 20 for the Bears career rushing list late next season. DJ Moore is now 44th in receiving yards and receptions on the Bears all-time list. He has a chance to move up past Tom Waddle for 33rd on the list for receptions and 36th for receiving yards by the end of the season. It looks like DJ will need 2 more seasons to get into the Bears top 10 Receiving Yards list. At his current pace, he would need 3.5 yrs after this season to be the Bears all-time leading receiver (DJ would be 31 at that time). Kmet is now 13th for receptions and 27th for receiving yards, but is now 2nd in franchise history in receptions by a TE (Ditka) and 4th in receiving yards (Ditka, Moorehead, Clark). It looks like Kmet will need two more full seasons to pass Dikta in receptions, and probably closer to 3.5 yrs to pass Dikta in yardage. So Kmet could do it when he is 29. Santos is still 4th in FGs, and only needs 2 more to be in 3rd all-time (Gould, Butler). He is now 7th in XPs and has a shot at 6th by the end of the year. Taylor extended his franchise lead for Gross Punt Average, now up to 47.6. His net of 39.7 and is % inside 20 (40.4%) are also franchise bests. Needless to say, even after a few terrible punts, he is still the best punter in franchise history, as a rookie. Carter is now 69th, yeah baybee, for kickoff return yards. His 31.3 yards per return is 2nd only to Sweetness (31.7) for KR Average.