adam

Also, age is just one trait. You could do the same thing for height, weight, speed, any combine metric, experience, etc. So to me it is somewhat subjective using an objective data point. I personally would rather use the holistic approach and age is just one factor. In terms of Fields development, it may actually help him that his top 3 WRs are 25, 25, and 29 (in 2022), his RB1 is 25 and his TE1 is 23. So as much as they can learn together, he is not dealing with that many 20-22 yr olds who are still maturing as an adult.

Thanks guys, I am sure there are other examples as well, these just seemed comparable to Fields based on his dual-threat ability. Outside of Hopkins, Watson didn't have much in terms of talent or an O-Line and did just fine his 2nd year. I feel like a lot of media guys crapped on Fields since the beginning and now are doubling down. It went from black QB, to not smart, to not a hard worker, to unable to read defenses, to throwing mechanics, to holding the ball to long, to lack of ball security. The list goes on and on. Now it's he doesn't have the players around him. Another interesting note, I think the defense is going to be better than last year and close to Buffalo and Baltimore in 2019. I think both were top 10. I think Bears can have a top 15 defense.

* CAUTION - LONG * So the latest trend with Fields after the draft is that he has the worst supporting cast in the NFL. I get that the Bears didn't draft a WR in the 2nd but would drafting Pickens, Pierce, or Moore in the 2nd instead of Jones in the 3rd really change anything? I highly doubt it. Going into this season, the Bears already have 4x players who had over 50 targets from last season (Mooney, Kmet, Pringle, and Montgomery). Why does that matter? Well I am glad you asked. I looked back at two recent 2nd-year QBs that made significant leaps in the 2nd seasons, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. I am not saying Fields is going to win MVP like Jackson did, but check out what both guys did in their 2nd years and who their supporting casts were: Lamar Jackson was truly a dual-threat QB in his 2nd season, gaining over 4300 yds (Passing+Rushing) with 43 combined TDs. His Passing numbers were modest by today's standards outside of the crazy TD-INT ratio: 265-401, 66.1%, 3127 yds, 36 TD, 6 INT. His rushing numbers were off the charts as he was one of the top rushers in the NFL and best on his team with 176-1206, and 7 TD. I don't recall anyone saying he had the worst supporting cast in the NFL that year, but here are his top 5 targets from 2019: 1. Andrews - 98 2. M. Brown - 71 3. Snead - 46 4. Boyle - 43 5. Hurst - 39 Outside of Andrews, there is not much there. Andrews over Kmet ok, but then Mooney over Brown, and Pringle over Snead. Would you rather have a TE2 or RB1 with the next highest targets, or does it matter? Still Boyle or Montgomery? Also, does #5 really matter? Nope. Also interesting, no RBs made the list. So they had to be great rushing right? Here are the top 2 RBs in rushing from 2019: 1. Ingram 202-1018, 10 TD 2. Edwards 133-711, 2 TD The threat of Lamar running made their numbers (from a yards per carry standpoint, look good), but barely eclipsing 1000 yards nowadays is not that big of a deal. Monty+Herbert are as equal if not better all-around than Ingram and Edwards were in 2019. So now to Josh Allen. He had a similar uptick from his rookie year, just not the crazy TDs and rushing yards that Jackson had. He had a passing line of 271-461, 58.8%, 3089 yds, 20 TD, 9 INT which was very modest across the board. Even his rushing numbers were similar outside of the higher TDs: 109-510, 9 TD. In a quick comparison, Fields had over 400 rushing yards in 30+ less carries last year in Nagy's offense. So did Josh Allen also have the worst supporting cast in the NFL in 2019? Here are his top 5 targets that year: 1. John Brown - 115 2. Beasley - 106 3. Knox - 50 4. Singletary - 41 5. McKenzie - 39 Allen's distribution was a little different than Jackson's. More to WRs and RBs, and less to TEs. Mooney or Brown? Mooney. Beasley or Pringle, I will say Beasley (in 2019). Knox or Kmet, I will take 2022 Kmet over 2019 Knox. Monty vs Singletary, Monty, and again does #5 really matter? Again no. Now who were Allen's top 2 RBs in 2019 in rushing? 1. Singletary 151-775, 2 TD 2. Gore 166-599, 2 TD The ageless Frank Gore and a very young Singletary who ended up as a poor man's David Montgomery if you ask me. Again, would you rather have Montgomery+Herbert or Singletary+Gore from 2019? Seems like another easy answer. Here is what the Bears have on the roster and their targets from 2021: Bears players with top 5 targets from 2021 season: 1. Mooney - 140 2. Kmet - 93 3. Pringle - 60 4. Montgomery - 51 5. O'Shaughnessy - 34 Mooney had 25 more targets than the next highest player (with 3 QBs and in Nagy's offense). Kmet only had 5 fewer than Andrews in that same anemic offense. Pringle, who was basically a 5th or 6th option in KC saw more targets than any #3 player on the lists. Monty was the only #4 player to have over 50 targets and he missed several games. Even O'Shaughnessy gets into the action with his 34 targets at #5. So if Velus Jones comes in and gets 50 targets, will this thread explode? TLDR? The bottom line is the 5th or 6th highest targeted player on the team doesn't make or break the roster or Fields career. There is only 1 ball and 1 target per play. If Jackson can have an MVP season with that skill position group and Allen can take a huge leap year with that position group, there is no reason why Fields, who came out of college more polished, shouldn't put up comparable numbers to both of those guys in the new system that is not run by a Clown shoe. After looking at what those other guys did, I expect Fields to have no less than 3500+ passing yards with 25+ TDs, <12 INTs, and 600+ rushing yards, 5+ TDs AND I would not be surprised if he surpasses those numbers.

Nope, checking it out now.

Cohen averaged 75 receptions between 18-19 and had 53 his rookie year (before Nagy), so I don't know if you can say he was primarily just a PR. In his first 3 seasons, he was 2nd, 1st, and 2nd on the team in receptions. He was actually pretty effective out of the backfield until 2019 too. In 17-18, he averaged 4.3 and 4.5 Y/A. I doubt Jones will ever hit 75 receptions in a year. I am thinking he will put up something similar to Anthony Miller numbers (receptions from 30-50, yards from 400-600, TDs from 2-5).

As of today, it looks like there are only a couple of "starting" positions that need to be settled. Looking at the offense, RG seems like the only position where there is not someone locked in at least for now. The WR room still looks like it could use one more veteran to add to the competition with Jones, Newsome, and Moore. The RB room is a strength and the TE room has enough. So outside of RG, maybe LT if Borom struggles, and another WR. Is there anything else they can do to improve in post-draft FA? QB Fields RB Montgomery FB Blasingame > RB/WR/TE in subs TE Kmet WR Mooney WR Pringle RT Jenkins LT Borom OC Patrick LG Whitehair RG Jones/Dozier* RB Herbert/Evans WR Jones/Newsome/Moore TE Horsted/O'Shaughnessy For defense, it feels very similar to the offense. If you plug Gordon and Brisker into the starting lineup, the two biggest holes now seem to be SAM and NT. The Bears have a few options at both, but I could see them bringing in some vets to compete in those spots. However, that is really it. The secondary now looks like a strength if you have guys like Graham and Shelley as subs or rotational guys. DE Quinn DE Muhammad/Gipson/Robinson DL Jones/Blackson/Edwards DL Tonga/Alufohai* LB Smith LB Morrow LB Sanborn/Alexander/Avery* CB Johnson CB Gordon S Jackson S Brisker DB Young/Graham For IDL, guys like Hicks, Ogunjobi, Fox, Richardson, and Lotulelei. At LB, you still have Schobert, Hitchens, Barr, Kwiatkoski, Wright or Bostic/Ogletree. Some would fit pretty well in the Sam role. At RG, Schofield is still out there. Eric Fisher is still out there for OT, so are Nate Solder and Daryl Williams. Lastly, at WR, Humphries, Wilson, Beasley are still out there for the slot. Then you have guys like Cole, Sharpe, Hurns, Fuller or Stills on the outside. I would love to see at least one from each group get signed. Bring back Hicks or sign Ogunjobi knowing he may not be available for the first month. Sign one of the LBs, Schofield at RG and someone like Fisher for LT. Then Borom goes back to Swing Tackle. Bring in at least one of those WRs, which would raise the floor of the WR room a notch. The Bears have the 6th most effective cap space, which puts them in a good position to bring in several of these guys. 10 teams have less than $5M, which would basically take them out of bringing in any new players above the league minimum. The Bears could bring in 5 new players, with an average cap hit of $2.5M and still have some operating cash for the season. Even addressing 2-3 of those positions with some vets would make me feel pretty good about the roster going into this season.

A few Bears draftees had some nice RAS scores, which is basically all the measurables. To put it in perspective, Urlacher scored a perfect 10.00 on RAS, man that dude was a beast. For the draft picks, there were several high players and others with high scores in certain areas. Gordon - 9.69 (15th highest Bears player since 1987) Brisker - 9.12 Jones - 7.11 B. Jones - 8.44 Robinson - 9.74 (11th highest Bears player since 1987) Thomas - 8.97 Ebner - 4.80 Kramer - 8.48 Carter - 6.30 Teven Jenkins is 13th. For UDFAs, Teague was 9.84 and Sanborn was 7.28. Teague's is one of the highest grades in the NFL since they started recording RAS in 1987.

Allen is more of a blocking TE that is really good at catching the ball. He is definitely not Horsted in terms of route running and separation, but I could see Allen in a lot of 12 packages. I would be shocked if Sanborn doesn't make the 53 and I would not be surprised to see him starting Week 1 at Sam. He would come out for the Slot Corner in sub packages.

I really hope he surprises everyone and makes Poles look like a genius. If they had him rated over all those other guys, then there was a reason for it. The fear on any of the stats, especially ones that are not receptions, yards, TDs, etc, is how much of that was due to the fact that he was just more developed as an adult man playing against 19 yr old kids? If he ends up just being a returner, then it was a bad pick. If he is a returner but also contributes on offense as at least the WR3/4, then it wouldn't be as bad.

Kittle went in the 5th didn't he? I was just saying there were a lot of guys on the board that could contribute immediately in areas of need. Jones seemed like a reach/project pick, which are normally selected in the later rounds. The Shaheen pick will always be worse, but it was similar in the fact that there were guys on the board in the same round that would've clearly been a better pick.

Yeah, it looks like he wasn't getting an opportunity on offense because he was so valuable on special teams. A catch 22 perhaps. Good catch on the COVID stuff. How many players played several seasons at one school before transferring during COVID? That surely would bring that list way down. I myself have higher hopes for him, but I am not expecting anything crazy. Cohen had 53 receptions for 353 yards his rookie year. I don't think Jones will have that many targets, but something in the mid-30s for receptions and 400+ yards is not out of the question.

I've heard some great things about Jack Sanborn, Chase Allen, Allie Green, and Major Teague. I would not be surprised if Sanborn is a Week 1 starter, he was projected anywhere from the 4th-7th. On The Draft Network, he had a 4th round value (#119). Amari Carter, CB from Miami was also expected to be drafted, TDN had him at #196 (5th Round Value). So I wouldn't be surprised to see Sanborn and one other of Green/Carter - CB, Allen - TE, or Teague - RB make the roster. The rest will easily make the practice squad.

Pix, Check out this article about Jones' age: https://beargoggleson.com/2022/05/06/velus-jones-chicago-bears/

He may end as the new Tanner Gentry or Daniel Braverman.

Interesting article, just using age as a comparison of other WRs that had their breakout year at 23 or later. https://beargoggleson.com/2022/05/06/velus-jones-chicago-bears/ The top 2 WRs on the list are Cooper Kupp and Van Jefferson. That's basically it. That is out of 37 WRs in that same group. I understand their point, that an older player is more fully developed, so they have an easier time against 19 and 20 year olds that are still developing. The Bears passed on Abraham Lucas, OT, Christian Harris, LB, Travis Jones, DT, Bernard Raimann, OT, Jalen Tolbert, WR, Dylan Parham, OG, and David Bell, WR. I really hope he works out and proves everyone wrong, otherwise this may end up as Poles' Shaheen pick.

The Brisker pick also makes me think Jackson won't be around in a year or two. This makes it easier to move on from him now. I really wanted a WR in the 2nd, but Poles got 2 guys who were mocked /rated much higher and fit the Flus defense very well. The one trend that seems evident in most of the picks is measurables. Most picks and even some UDFAs had really high RAS scores. Poles got some extra darts late in the draft which increases the probability a few will hit. I like that method. Overall, happy with the draft, got some blue chip defenders in the 2nd and extra picks late.

WRs that will be gone by 39: Wilson, London, Williams, Olave, Burks Give me your top 3 from the following WRs as you would select them if available (NFL.com rating): Christian Watson - 6.27 (6'4" - 4.36 40) Jahan Dotson - 6.25 (5'11" - 4.43 40) Skyy Moore - 6.24 (5'10" - 4.41 40) George Pickens - 6.23 (6'3" - 4.47 40) Jalen Tobert - 6.21 (6'1" - 4.49 40) John Metchie - 6.18 (5'11" - INJ) Alec Pierce - 6.16 (6'3" - 4.41 40) Calvin Austin - 6.00 (5'8" - 4.32 40) Tyquan Thompson - 5.97 (6'2" - 4.28) David Bell - 5.95 (6'1' - 4.65 40) I would probably go Watson, Pickens, Pierce. All 3 are 6'3" or 6'4" and would create some mismatches with smaller DBs. Pierce is 211 lbs, Watson is 208 and Pickens is the lightest at 195. I really want a bigger WR to go along with Mooney.

Yeah, you definitely need about 2-3 rotational guys on the DL, at least an extra backer (in 4-3), and 2-3 extra DBs that will get a decent amount of snaps. So they need 16-18 quality players who will see a bulk of the snaps. Depending on who you count right now: DL: Blackson, Edwards, Gipson, Jones, Muhammad, Tonga, Quinn, Attaochu LB: Smith, Morrow, Adams, Jones, Snowden, Thomas DB: Johnson, Graham, Jackson, Cruikshank, DHC, Joseph, Shelley, Vildor From these names, it looks like we still could use a 3T, another LB (Sam), and CB and SS. I would say DE (in both base and sub) is probably our strongest position. Edwards, Gipson, Muhammad, Quinn, and Attacochu can all play there.

Mock Compilation Using PFF, PFN, and TDN simulators, I ran them up to the 39th pick and noted who were the top 15 rated players available in each of the sites. 2 players were available and in the top 15 on all 3 sites: K. Walker, RB and C. Harris, LB 10 players were available and in the top 15 on 2 of 3 sites: Pitre, CB; Dotson, WR; Jackson, ED; Muma, LB; Hall, RB; Watson, WR; Smith, OT; Ojabo, ED; Jones, DT; Leal, DT So just going off consensus rankings, which 2 guys would you be happy with at 39 and 48? RB: Walker, Hall WR: Dotson, Watson OT: Smith DL: Jones, Leal ED: Jackson, Ojabo LB: Harris, Muma CB: Pitre

I agree, OG/OT, 3T, and WR have to be the top 3. The only other position I can see is CB or doubling up on OL or WR in the first 3 picks.

Mooney has played well against some good CBs too, I remember him de-pantsing Ramsey only to have Foles miss him. Fields and Mooney are locked in right now and I can only imagine that his numbers will be even better than last year's (81-1055, 4 TD). I am thinking something like an extra reception every game to get close to 100 receptions, 1200-1300 yards (his Y/R last year was 13.0) and 7-8 TDs. Only 7 WRs had over 1200 yds last year (Kupp, Jefferson, Adams, Chase, Samuel, Hill, and Diggs). Only 9 WRs had over 100 receptions. Only 5 WRs had over 100 receptions AND 1200 yds (Kupp, Jefferson, Adams, Hill, Diggs). So if Mooney can do that, I don't know how you can't call him a WR1.

I wouldn't be surprised if they at least took 1x OL and 1x DL in the first 3 picks.

I would be happy with: OL: Fisher or Brown WR: Humphries - True Slot WR WR: Sharpe - replaces Byrd or Goodwin LB: Hitchens CB: Rhodes One thing to note for some of these guys, they may have some agreement worked out in principle, but want to wait until after the draft to sign them due to comp picks.

There still are a lot of top FAs left. I don't remember this many guys being available a week before the draft: OL: Tretter, Williams, Fisher, Brown, Reiff, Shell, Flowers, Turner, Crosby, Quessenberry, Paradis WR: Beckham, Jones, Landry, Fuller, Beasley, Hilton, Sanders, Snead, Cole, Humphries, Sharpe CB: Harris, Fuller, Callahan, Rhodes, Sherman, Haden, Deisr, Bouye, Trufant, Alford, Carrie S: Mathieu, Collins, McCourty, Edmunds, Kazee, Tartt, Gipson DL: Richardson, Hicks, Ogunjobi, Lotulelei, Joseph LB: Johnson, Van Noy, Barr, Collins, Hightower, Wright, Hitchens, Smith, Kwiatkoski Who would you like to see out of this group?

Absolutely. There is very little drop off from 40-70. That's where the evaluations come in. I still think #39 has the most potential for trade candidates with the Seattle back to back picks following the Bears. Getting another pick in the top 100 would be huge.