adam

Thru the early games today, here is the current Draft Order. The Bears are literally in no man's land at #16. They also will be the only team in the NFL with exactly a .500 record thru Week 11. So depending on how things go, the Bears are only 1.5 games away from a top 10 pick and a game out of the last wild card spot. Not only that, if they somehow beat the Packers next week, they would only be a game back in the division. So next week the season is literally on the line in so many different ways. A win and the Bears actually put themselves in a pretty good spot for a playoff berth. Mainly because the two teams the Bears are chasing play each other twice (ARZ/LAR). Either those teams both win 1 and lose 1 or one team wins both and the other loses both. A win against GB would also setup for a potential Division Championship Game in Week 17. With a loss though the Bears would be at least two games out with 5 to play and would drop to a pick somewhere between 12-14. 1. NYJ 0-10 2. JAX 1-9 3. CIN 2-7-1 4. HOU 3-7 5. ATL 3-7 6. DAL 3-7 7. WAS 3-7 8. NYG 3-7 9. LAC 3-7 ----------- 10. CAR 4-7 11. SF 4-6 12. DET 4-6 13. NE 4-6 14. DEN 4-6 15. MIN 4-6 ----------- 16. CHI 5-5 ----------- 17. MIA 6-4 18. BAL 6-4 =========== 19. PHI 3-6-1* 20. ARZ 6-4 21. LAR 6-3 22. LVR 6-3 23. CLE 7-3 24. TEN 7-3 25. TB 7-3 26. GB 7-3* 27. IND 7-3* 28. BUF 7-3* 29. SEA 7-3* 30. KC 8-1* 31. NO 8-2* 32. PIT 10-0*

Hilarious that the Bears actually won Week 11 with all 3 other NFCN teams losing and the Cards. If the Rams lose, it would be a clean sweep half game gain on a bye week against all the closest teams.

If you just look back at Pace's entire draft history, he should be fired. Just looking at the first 3 rounds, where Pace drafted defense, and then picking offensive players within the next 10 picks. Beyond that the player value at the time of the draft would probably warrant a draft down vs a pick. So I just looked at offensive players missed with the drafting of a defensive player or complete offensive bust (Shaheen). 2016 - 1st - Floyd (passed on Laremy Tunsil - OT, Taylor Decker - OT, Ryan Kelly - C) 3rd - Bullard (passed on Joe Thuney - G, Kenyan Drake - RB, Austin Hooper - TE) 2017 - 1st - Trubisky (passed on Mahomes, Watson, Fournette, McCaffrey) + the 3rd Rounder lost in the trade: (missed on Kamara, Kupp, Elflein - C, Feeney - G) 2nd - Shaheen (passed on Mixon) 2018 - 1st - Smith (passed on McGlinchey - OT) 2nd - Miller (passed on Chark - WR, O'Neill - OT) 3rd - Trubisky Trade (missed on Gallup - WR, Orlando Brown Jr - OT) 2019 - 2nd - Miller trade (missed on DK Metcalf - WR) 3rd - Montgomery (passed on Nate Davis - G) 2020 - 2nd - Kmet (passed on Chase Claypool - WR) I know it is easier to draft after the fact, but these players were rated as high if not higher than the player drafted by the Bears. To think our O-Line and offense as a whole could look like this from the Pace era from only the first 3 rounds of picks: Sutton - WR (instead of Daniels) O'Neill - T (instead of Miller) Thuney - G (instead of Bullard) Kelly - C (instead of Floyd) Davis - G (instead of Montgomery) McGlinchey - T (instead of Smith) Trubisky - QB Mixon - RB (instead of Shaheen) Metcalf - WR (instead of Miller) Claypool - WR3/TE (instead of Kmet) Graham - TE Mooney - WR3/4 Whitehair is your Super Sub, since you didn't need Daniels, you pick Sutton. I did not use anything from the Trubisky trade or pick. Take that offense and we ultimately lose Roquan, Miller, Montgomery and Kmet plus the entire O-Line from the current roster. You then can re-sign Kwit or KPL to replace Smith, and all others are already replaced by the new picks. You don't need to sign A-Rob either. So money could be spent on extending some of these guys. That team is unstoppable. Another wild option was replacing McGlinchey with Lamar Jackson, and Trubisky with Ramczyk, both one for one: Sutton - WR (instead of Daniels) O'Neill - T (instead of Miller) Thuney - G (instead of Bullard) Kelly - C (instead of Floyd) Davis - G (instead of Montgomery) Ramczyk - T (instead of Trubisky) Jackson - QB (instead of Smith) Mixon - RB (instead of Shaheen) Metcalf - WR (instead of Miller) Claypool - WR3/TE (instead of Kmet) I know it seems like a lot of moving pieces, but the way this would cascade year over year is actually somewhat realistic.

Hindsight is 20/20. Foles was the logical choice over Newton and Dalton. No one could predict he would turn out this bad. He looks like the Foles in Jacksonville or LA. He is less mobile and has lost arm strength and touch. To me that is the death knell for any QB. He is career backup now and nothing more. Even with Trubisky's inability to read a defense, you can still work with that (cut the field in half, boots, roll-outs, play-action, RPOs) and allow him to make plays when things break down. Foles needs a perfect pocket like he had in Philly to succeed. Without it, he is a tall skinny, tackling dummy.

What a shit show. You have no choice but to go back to Trubisky, but probably should've done it a few weeks back. Foles has not looked the same since that Atlanta game. He literally started to do the same bad habits that everyone picked on Trubisky about. Throwing off his back foot, inaccurate passes, missing wide open players, throwing into double coverage. Foles essentially morphed into Mitch Folbisky with zero mobility. The Bears should just put Foles on IR, and let Trubisky play for a new contract. There is a chance that he learned something in the last two months since he was benched. We will see. It would be great if he came out on fire against GB. We need our team to play angry. Our defense does (outside of Skrine), but our offense is timid.

Skrine has given up more TDs against than the rest of the entire defense has. That is a problem. I am surprised it is not discussed that much. Fuller and Johnson are doing their part, but teams (like the Vikings) figured out all they had to do is send out a formation that prevents Skrine from having help on both sides. Then it is just one move inside or out and the ball is out and Skrine is trailing in coverage. He has actually been a very solid run defender and has made some open field tackles, but if he can prevent a pass, it's like the defense is playing with 10 guys out there.

I guess I worded it wrong. With 4 straight losses and a 5th on the horizon, this team is already tanking. I am just saying with the season now gone, you might as well see what you with some of the younger guys by giving them more playing time. If they play good and you win, great, but if you lose, which was probably already a given, then there is no harm in getting some of the younger guys live action to see if they can play.

The only good thing about the bye week is not having to be tortured by that offense. I would take the Jets offense over this. The 5-1 start was fools gold. We should have been 3-3 and now 3-7. I'm really only thinking at most two more wins. We are not beating MIN or GB. The other 3 games are JAX, DET, HOU. I don't think we can beat DET right now either. I think they beat the Jags no matter what, but don't know about HOU with Watson. Just an unbelievable turn of events over the last month. How many losses in a row is needed for a coaching change? We are at 4, with GB next, that seems like 5. How long does this need to go on before something is done?

Lol Mongo. You are correct, the safeties have been out of position a lot or late to cover. I don't know if that is scheme or the players. However, like you have done on the offense, if you go back and watch Skrine on the all-22, there is almost no reason to throw to any other receiver. Just throw it towards Skrine. On Coward, sorry, but he seriously needs to go. There is no way that the team can't find some guy on another team's PS that is better than Coward. This is on Pace.

How many TD's is Skrine going to allow this season? I think he is on pace for 15 TDs allowed. We might want to shade the safeties his way, geez. There is no reason to throw towards anyone else. Throw towards him and it's a TD, sooooo frustrating. On the 2nd TD, it was so obvious where they were going and there is Skrine shading to the inside to allow for an easy out route. Shelley can't be worse. Is Coward still on this team?

Welp this didn't age well. The season is over, at this point the team needs to tank. There is no need for moral wins to end up 8-8 and a high teens pick and missing the playoffs. What a shame too. Nagy needs to go, Pace needs to go. This team has been smoke and mirrors since all those turnovers in 2018. Outside of 3-4 games, the offense has been one of the worst in a long time. In 2018, it was the defense getting turnovers and scores and the kicker. In 2019, it was injuries. This year, they were exposed. We are closer to a 3-7 team than a 5-5 team. Considering that, we should be the underdog in pretty much every remaining game. With only 6 left, I can't see this team winning more than 1 or 2. I really hope they don't win any. That would allow the team to fire Pace, Nagy, and clean house. Bring someone else in and give them a better draft pick to start with. 5-1 is the only way to make the playoffs, that ain't happening.

At 5-4, a win against MIN on MNF is the only way we have a chance at the playoffs. If the Bears lose and go to 5-5, the season is over. However, I think they win and go to 6-4 into the bye. If they do, they still have work to do in the highly competitive NFC. There is a chance that 7 teams win 10 games and the 7th team doesn't make the playoffs. Here is the main competition for the playoffs: 1. New Orleans 7-2, currently 1st in Division, but lost Brees for several weeks. They have the tie breaker against the Bears, only 1 game against teams in the hunt. I project them no worse than 11-5, but expect 12-4 or 13-3. The Brees injury could be huge if he is out extended time. 2. Tampa Bay 7-3, currently 2nd in the Division, the Bears own the tie breaker against them, 2 games against teams in the hunt. They are going 12-4 or 13-3 unless something changes. They seem to be getting better and may take the division over NO. 3. Arizona 6-3, currently 1st in the Division, 3 games against teams in the hunt. A slightly tougher schedule going forward. Looks like they will end up 11-5 or 10-6. 4. LA Rams 6-3, currently 2nd in the Division, 4 games against teams in the hunt, they have the tie breaker against the Bears. They have the toughest path to the playoffs. With 7 games remaining, they are projected to win 3 to 4 more, or go 10-6 or 9-7. 5. Seattle 6-3, currently 3rd in the Division, 2 games against teams in the hunt. They have the easiest schedule of the West teams, which should put them in at 11-5 or 10-6. The Bears have to pass only one of those teams for a playoff spot. The Bears have 2 games against teams in the hunt (both against GB). At 6-4 with 6 games remaining, the Bears will need to win at least 4 games against (GB, DET, HOU, MIN, JAX, GB). That is doable. 11-5 will guarantee a playoff spot. 10-6 will not. A longer shot is the division, but possible, GB still plays IND, TEN, and CHI twice. If we can at least split with them and have them lose to both IND and TEN, that would put them at 11-5 and 4-2 in the Division. If we can sweep MIN and DET and split GB, we would be 5-1 in the Division and win the tie breaker at 11-5. That is the only possible scenario for the Division unless GB loses to a few teams unexpectedly.

Cool little correlation, Miller had two of his better years as a pro when Lazor was the OC in Miami in 2014 and 2015. 16 Rushing TDs in 32 games, with 3 receiving TDs. It looks like he averaged about 12 carries and 3 receptions a game and had over 5 YPC in 2014. Even if he is not at that level, even 80% of that production is better than we are getting now.

GB wins, TB wins, DET wins. Could not end up any worse for the Bears.

Early games: GB (6-2) tied with JAX in the 4th quarter TB (6-3) winning big against CAR DET (3-5) up by 7 against WAS

Home Dogs with a winning record playing against a team with a losing record is disrespect. Very little faith in this team right now.

I am glad he made the move. That is a huge move for him and the more I sit back and look at it, the more I respect him for the decision. I am sure it wasn't easy, especially on the ego. To me, this buys him some time. They replaced coaches, switched QBs, and now the playcaller. So if it doesn't work now, what's next? That is my only concern. If this doesn't work, we are in some serious trouble.

Every game is winnable, but every game is loseable. The offense really needs to get going to have a chance. We just need average offense to be a playoff team. Once we get in, and Foles can find his postseason groove, we actually have as good of a chance as most teams to make a deep playoff run. The O-Line and playcalling have to get better.

If you just picked BPA based on a collective ranking of prospects, your team would be pretty damn good. Pace falls in love with things that don't win football games. There are several reasons why Pace should be gone. 1. Failed to get a franchise QB: paid Glennon, drafted Mitch, signed Foles, all have failed. 2. Never addressed O-Line (Paid Quinn instead of addressing O-Line in free agency) 3. TE Position was a black hole for years. (Dion Sims, Adam Shaheen, and now Kmet doing very little) 4. Our best players on offense and defense were not drafted by the Bears (ARob and Mack). This makes them very expensive and not sustainable. He also got a free pass for Fox's Bears but should be accountable for those years too.

So now what? If the team struggles, is Nagy safe? If the offense looks good, is Nagy safe? Even though it had to be done, it seems like he is not going win either way. If they keep losing, can he just say "see, it wasn't me" or if they start winning and the offense looks good, then that's a huge indictment on him.

Wow, he did it:

This is a make or break game for the Bears. Win and playoff chances alive. Lose and it's over. It's that easy. Bears 20-16 in an ugly one.

Almost every game is a must-win now, with 7 games left, you have to win 5. With TB, ARZ, and LAR as the current Wild Cards, those teams are projected to have 9-10 wins. I figure 10 wins gets in, 9 wins will be up to a tie breaker. Do you see the Bears winning 5 from GBx2, MINx2, DET, HOU, JAX? That looks more like 3-4 wins to me. We are trending more towards a 7-9 season than a 9-7 season.

I love these, thanks for doing these Mongo. There are a couple of plays that stood out to me, obviously the Monty fumble ends up being the difference in the game, but how about the 15 play FG drive. What the hell was Nagy thinking on the Philly Special to ARob. Our O-Line is decimated and there was no need for any trickery there, after you had 9 positive plays out of 11 to that point. The Bears were moving the ball and had the Titans on their heels. Just keep doing what you are doing. Here is another crazy sequence: 4 pass rt - Mooney for 1 5 run L2 - Monty for 4 6 pass left - Hambright gets used a turnstile, Foles has no chance That 3 play sequence took almost 2 minutes off the clock and gained 5 yards. This is when they were down by 3 scores in the 4th quarter. Again, WTF is Nagy doing? He has zero game awareness and that is why they have scored only 7 points in the 3rd quarter all season. He doesn't know why things are not working, so how does he adjust? So apparently, he doesn't. They had a great special teams play (Mingo with longest run of the game for the Bears), then you immediately call a timeout on the next play? All the main offensive players are on the sideline. How are they not ready to come in with the next play in hand? Piss poor coaching. After that fake, they should've quickly ran their guys to the line and waited for TEN to make their substitutions, then ran the next play. This is not rocket science. I also wouldn't get too encouraged by the late scores as TEN went into prevent defense and almost lost because of it. Montgomery is great at getting the extra yard and breaking tackles, but man Mongo, you are right. He has to stop the jiggle on every play. Just hit the hole or cutback, don't dance in place. On the screen, if he just followed the ball to the outside he would've been going away from the pursuit, but his spin brought him right back to the defender who popped the ball out. It's sad and comical to watch all the O-Line on that play as it is hard to determine what they are trying to do. In the end, this comes right back to Nagy, you changed out the other coaches, you brought in your QB, and it is still not working. The O-Line is part of the problem, the QB is part of the problem, but now it seems that coaching is the biggest problem.

Yep, he had the size and speed to be dominant, so I don't know why it never showed up on the tape.