adam

So thru a quarter of the season, the Bears are 3-1 and have a 52% chance to make the playoffs. The NFC East will only send one team, so the competition is going to come from the West and South. After TB, NO has a 72.6% to make the playoffs, which would put them in the #2 Wild Card slot. In the West, after Seattle, LAR has a 72.8% chance to make the playoffs for the #1 Wild Card slot. So the Bears are the WC3 slot (7th) ahead of SF at 40% and ARZ at 33%, both teams are 2-2. What is interesting is we faced the #1 DVOA team last week against IND (they are now 4th), and will face TB who is now #1 this week. So we are definitely hitting a gauntlet right now. Our defense is still in the top 10 (7th) but our offense is 27th and Special Teams is 30th.

Thursday Night Football, where home teams normally have an advantage. Both teams come in 3-1, but the Bucs are favored by 5. The Bucs are stingy against the run, which won't help the Bears running game, but the passing defense is in the bottom half of the league. I am not as impressed with TB as the media is. They beat a rookie QB in Herbert at home (West Coast team playing on East Coast) by 7, a bad and depleted Denver team, and another injured team in Carolina. They have led in every game and scored first in all 4 games. So they have always played with a lead. OJ Howard was lost for the season and Godwin is still injured. With a short week, injuries will be key. The Bears have yet to win a coin toss and have not scored in the 3rd quarter this season. That will come to an end on Thursday. The Bucs are 3-0 when they score 28 or more, and 0-1 when they score 23 or less. The Bears are 3-0 when they score 17 or more, and 0-1 when they score 11 or less. I think the Bears benefit from the short week and get TB at the right time, Bears 23-21 in a close one.

Did anyone see the GB-ATL game on MNF? The announcers were gloating over how good Aaron Rodgers played, but no one said anything about the fact that he was throwing to wide open receivers and at times had 2 or 3 guys to choose from. That has nothing to do with Rodgers, he had the easy job. It was the scheme and play calls. You could tell that the routes played off each other to create artificial picks and rubs and cleared space in specific areas of the field. This was what every play basically looked like. Just watch the game highlights on NFL.com, Rodgers doesn't have to do anything. The scheme is working, putting the defense on their heels, and making them over-commit which creates a ton of space. This is why I feel like Nagy's scheme (whatever that is) is holding the offense back. If they can scheme Robert Tonyan open for 6-98 and 3 TDs, we should be able to do the same with Kmet. Rodgers had 20 completions to TEs and RBs and only 7 completions to WRs, yet he threw for 300+ yds and 4 TDs with over 80% completion percentage. There is no reason why the Bears can't do this with Foles or Trubisky.

Both defenses are underrated allowing about 20 per game, but yeah, zero TDs? The Bears allow one and score one TD and lose. The games still come down to one or two plays. If Mack intercepts the ball that hit him in the hands, we are already in the RZ. If Miller doesn't allow a ball to sail through his hands, there might be more points there. I just don't understand how professional athletes can drop a ball they have played with their entire lives so easily. Indy was a trap game. They knew Foles very well, Burton there to fill the team in on Nagy specifics, Pagano recently there, etc, etc. It was a bad matchup all the way around. I thought the Indy defense was snuffing plays a little too easily. Then we still have the penalty issue. The officials refuse to call holding on Mack and/or call a penalty on a Bear but not the other team for the same type of play. How can a player dive at Foles knees and not get a penalty because they said the OLineman pushed him into him, but Edwards gets a penalty for hitting Ryan in the head when Ryan was tackled into Edwards? I have no issues with missed calls when they are even, but we have been on the short end every game so far.

I have been saying this since the demotion. We didn't get anything from Floyd leaving (who has 2 sacks in LA btw), so there is no point keeping him on the roster to get nothing for him after the season. Trade him before the deadline, and with so many QB needy teams, there should be some serious interest. I would assume a 4-5th is where they will go, but I will have to look at previous in-season trades for QBs to see what they received.

To me, this team all comes down to coaching. The defense is worse because of Pagano. The offense is worse because of Nagy. I have never seen such inept game plans since Trestman and Tice. I was predicting the plays on offense 90% of the time. Patterson in the backfield, plug the A and B gap and have contain on the cutback. Easy. Leno sucks, he can't hold a block for a second. A couple of times he completely whiffed on his block. Foles playing bad exposes Nagy's playcalling. There is no game plan, nothing plays off each other. I also noticed that our receivers were not getting open. That is also related to the scheme. If the defense doesn't know the play, every play should be open at some point in the route, otherwise, it is a bad play design. On every run Monty was hit in the backfield or near the LOS. Our O-Line can't move anyone. They stack the box with 7 or 8 and then we run right into them with 5 or 6 blockers. So there are always two defenders free in the gaps to tackle our runner. It was so frustrating to watch that abortion. Our Special Teams is costing us points too. Tabor needs to go, he may be the worst coach on the staff with the worst performance on the field of any unit. Any penalties on ST are unacceptable but multiple? Then you allow Patterson to take a kickoff out of the end zone 7 yards in? 3-4 yards fine, but 7? We started multiple drives inside our 20 because of Patterson or penalties. Patterson also got a penalty for taking his helmet off, which gifted the Colts better field position. Something has to give there. Just take the 25 and be happy with it at this point. Addition by subtraction works. Pagano has no game plan. How about taking away what the other teams wants to do? Dictate the game. Trey freaking Burton had two first down catches. To me it seems like the defensive players are overcoming Pagano's scheme. They are making individual plays, but the Colts still went 8-19 on 3rd Downs and were the worst team coming into the game on those conversions. The defense gifted them 4x first downs on penalties. Unacceptable. There is no masking coverages, faking blitzes, etc. Also, Khalil Mack is in coverage way too much for me. Do we really want him getting winded chasing a TE across the field, then try to rush the passer on the next play? It is silly. To me it is the wrong fit. Pagano seems to be a 4-3 guy trying to coach a team built for 3-4 players. To me this feels like the start of a steep drop off. We have 6 games before the bye. I feel like we will only win one of those and end up 4-6 at the bye. Pace and the entire coaching staff should be on the hot seat at that point. I would not mind seeing a new GM and coaching staff next year. I am tired up this mediocre middle we live in. 6-10 to 9-7 with one really good season every 5 years to keep us believing. Now that Trubisky is a bust, Pace should be held accountable. If Nagy can't right the ship with another QB, he should be held accountable too. If Pagano's unit doesn't improve, he needs to go. It's that simple.

Nice drive but ends with only a FG. Last two plays seemed like not everyone was on the same sheet. Foles hands the ball off to no one followed by a throw that looked like Foles was throwing to Harris' back shoulder (away from defender) but Harris was not expecting that. If he did, he walks right in for an easy TD.

He can't run the routes or call the plays. Right now it doesn't even matter who is QB, no one is getting open. Trubisky had some games like this too. On some of these outs, they need some out and ups. What this game was going to tell us is if Nagy is the problem. If Foles struggles all game, it's the play calling.

It's clear that the Colts are not going to let the Bears run. If that is the case, the Bears need to take advantage of the open space. Right now receivers are not getting open. At this point, it doesn't even matter who is QB.

I don't know, I doubt it but you never know. Our first drive ends in a partially blocked punt and then Rivers makes a couple of nice throws and of course, Alie-Cox gets the TD catch on an easy crossing route. Bears down 7-0 early.

Yes, he is 14 months removed from a torn ACL, so he should be near 100%. He is a very solid RB2 if healthy and has a ton of catches out of the backfield. To me, that is the perfect complement to Montgomery because there won't be any tells with them on the field.

Our game has been moved to the 325pm slot where the Chiefs Pats game was. So we get a late game this week instead of a nooner.

He does and based on Alie-Cox's production compared to previous years, it is clear that this is related to Rivers. So if you take him away, Rivers will have to go to someone else.

Depends what type of role he is looking for. In Seattle, he will have less playing time, but as a biggun, he may only want that.

After the Week 3 updates, the Colts have the highest DVOA in the league, but have the 18th rank offense with the 1st rank defense. The Bears are ranked 17th with the 26th ranked offense and 6th ranked defense. Some other interesting comparisons, even though Rivers has been ultra-efficient, his QBR is 57.5 for 23rd in the league, 24th was Mitch Trubisky at 55.9. For RBs, Taylor is 29th in the league for DVOA while Monty is 22nd. Alie-Cox is #2 in the league for DVOA, which is surprising. Graham is 26th. Hilton is 47th and Pittman is 52nd. So there WRs are non-factors so far. Interestingly for the Bears, Miller is 44th and Robinson is actually 55th, which I think is due to the 2 INTs that were stripped from him. So Alie-Cox is going to be the guy the LBs and Safeties need to key on it seems.

They do, they are trying to patch it with Hicks inside, but he is not a typical NT.

Foles is only 31. If he is solid for the remainder of the year, I think you continue to build around him for the next few years and look for a QB in the 5-7th in the next year or two, but don't look for a true replacement for a few more years.

To me the Indy Offense is underwhelming. They are relying on short quick throws to protect Rivers. That has given Rivers a very high completion percentage, literally 15 pts higher than his career average. So based on the law of averages, that is set to drop and return to the mean. So I expect him to be at 60% for the game. He averages 1 INT per game, so even with the short passing game, he still is turnover prone. He has 35 INTs in his last 35 games. He is very consistent in throwing to the other team. I think we can capitalize on one of his mistakes with someone like Fuller or Johnson jumping a short out and taking it to the house. Rivers 78.3%, 794 yds, 8.6 Y/A, 3 TD, 3 INT, 1 Fumble The running game is weak, their top 2 RBs average less than 4 YPC, and Hines leads the team in receptions. So mirroring Hines is going to be key. He is Rivers' outlet, so Smith is going to have to mask him all game. I would make them beat us without Hines. Montgomery is a better rusher and is on par with Taylor's catching ability. With the loss of Cohen, they have the edge with Hines. Taylor - 3.8 YPC, 9 Receptions Hines - 3.5 YPC, 13 Receptions Their WR's have not done very much, mainly because of the short passing game featuring the RBs and TE. So Hilton is averaging just over 3 catches a game. He is almost a non-factor. I like our chances with Fuller, Johnson, and Skrine against Hilton, Pittman, and Pascal/Campbell. They don't have an ARob. Hilton - 10 Receptions, 13.3 YPC Pittman - 9 Receptions, 8.1 YPC The leader in receiving yards is their backup TE, Alie-Cox. He has a 45-yard catch to his credit and seems to be their best receiver. Graham matches him in receptions and first downs, but Alie-Cox has more yards but Graham has more TDs. He is going to have to be accounted for. This would be a good coming out party for Cole Kmet. Alie-Cox - 10 Receptions, 18.1 YPC For Special Teams, their kicker is about average, he has missed 2 kicks from between 30-49, so he is not automatic and hasn't attempted one beyond 50 yet. Their punter is pretty good, he has 4 punts inside the 10 out of 6 punts. Their longest kickoff return is 41 yards by Dulin and longest punt return is 16 yards by Hines. O'Donnell has only put one punt inside the 10 and Santos has missed both kicks beyond 40, so our kickers suck. CP is returning kickoffs, so we have a huge edge there. It will be interesting to see if Miller continues to return punts or if they try CP or Mooney there. For their entire team, they have 2 players I would want, Quentin Nelson at Guard, Darius Leonard at LB. Everyone else is meh. We have Mack, Hicks, Jackson, Montgomery, and ARob. It feels like we have the personnel edge. So it is going to come down to coaching and execution.

The 2-1 Colts come to Soldier Field as 2 point favorites against the undefeated Chicago Bears. No one picked the Bears to win in Atlanta, and no one is picking the Bears against the Colts. With the QB change (which was the biggest variable for the last 3+ yrs), this should be a good matchup for the Bears. Phillip Rivers comes to town and is a very turnover prone QB. I like our chances against him. In a way, our teams are very similar in composition. Vet QB that is not very mobile, young RB, solid WR's, good Edge Rushers, etc. If you do a player by player breakdown, I like our chances against them. I am going with Bears 27-17 and the Bears go to 4-0 with a decisive win at home.

This is a better position for drafting one than when we drafted Trubisky. By the way, I stand corrected. Nagy stated that the QB switch is permanent and not a week to week thing. So unless Foles gets hurt, I think they are sticking with him for the remainder of the year.

I agree that the defense has underwhelmed under Pagano. There is zero creativity. Regardless of the defensive scheme, Mack and Quinn should be getting sacks. Right now they have a total of 2.5 in 3 games. Hicks has 3.5 to put that into perspective. A huge disappointment for me has been RRH. This dude was set for a decent payday and is playing himself into a league minimum deal. He has 4 total tackles in 3 games, 0 sacks, 0 TFL. He has literally done nothing. Bilal Nichols is not far ahead with 5 tackles, 0 sacks, 1 TFL. I know everything thinks Trevathan is the weak link on the defense, but based on production, right now it seems like the weakness is RRH and Nichols. Lastly, the only reason the offense is leading the opponent in anything is because of the defense. We still have a top 10 defense and a bottom 10 offense.

Hicks is also getting some double team action. What they started to do is run at Quinn's side who was taking some wide angles to the QB. They need to do some stunts and run blitzes off tackle there. That seems to be the gap they have the most success in. Also, safeties too deep for me on this play. That is Skrine in the picture who is in coverage. He shouldn't have to make that play. Both Smith and Trevathan were at the LOS on this play. That left a huge hole in the middle if it didn't work (or if they were held).

Mongo, if you watch the replay, Trevathan is actually coming over from the left side of this picture. There was no way for him to get to that spot without the blocker in his route. The problem occurred when Hill is a step or two before this, the guy is holding him. The minute Hill passes him, it's a hold. The other guy is Urban, an is held the entire time from getting to that gap. Its almost impossible to beat a hold, ask Mack.

What is crazy about this throw is if Miller misses it, it would've literally hit the bottom of the L. See the screenshot below where Miller caught it. Foles adds an entire new element to the offense that Trubisky cannot do, change the call and even improvise the routes in the huddle and at the LOS. Listen to Jimmy Graham talk about it after the game. He sounded like a little school boy, he was so excited about Foles taking over. I know Trubisky has a lot better mobility, but teams didn't even honor that anymore. So I don't know if that is a truly a positive. Trubisky can only run what is called. Even if the defense is set to blow the play up, he still calls the play and throws to the first read, regardless if that guy is wide open or triple teamed. The only thing I saw him do is call a different protection to bring a player in to block. If you listen to his post game Zoom call, Trubisky said he didn't see the defender in front of Graham who intercepted the ball. That is because the defender was behind Graham and jumped the route because Trubisky was telegraphing the throw. That to me was telling. He thought the guy who intercepted the ball was in front of Graham when he really was behind him. That is how confused he was on that play.

Mongo, one is a new GM and one is an old-timer. They have not responded to email alerts sent in Leaguesafe or to messages in the league message board. So to ensure things are not getting caught in the spam filter, I sent out direct emails to both of them. Btw, you are crushing it this year. Take it easy, these guys have families and I play you next week.