adam

No Brees, Kamara, or Cook. If we can't beat the Saints at home without 3 of their top offensive players playing, we don't deserve to win or make the playoffs. We should win by at least a TD now. I am thinking more along the lines of 17-9.

Way too many other issues on the team than RB. This would not even be in my top 10 and I can't see giving up anything for him unless it was something like Davis+7th rounder for Gordon. Even then, he will command a lot more money and we get a ton of savings having Montgomery on his rookie deal. So it would be a hard pass from me.

They are very similar at this point. Both have also missed games due to injury basically every year and both are somewhat mobile QB's that were 1-Read QBs in college. Check out their average stats for their careers, eerily similar, but Mariota has the edge in most by a little other than comp%. Mariota - 62.9% Comp%, 76-44 TD/INT, 212.6 Y/G, Y/A 7.5 (High 7.6, Low 7.1), QB Rating 89.6 (High 95.6, Low 79.3), QBR High 59.4, Low 50.6 (before this season). 11 GWDs, 9 4Q Comebacks. Trubisky - 63.7% Comp%, 34-21 TD/INT, 200.1 Y/G, Y/A 6.9 (High 7.4, Low 5.5), QB Rating 86.9 (High 95.4, Low 77.5), QBR High 70.8, Low 31.6 (before this season). 4 GWDs, 2 4Q Comebacks. Both QB's had Kendall Wright as their WR, so it's the Kendall Wright effect.

It looks like a dislocated patella, which may also mean a torn ligament (depending on severity). If the ligament is torn, it will require surgery as the knee cap will move around and be very unstable. If he has surgery, he will be out for 8-10 weeks at a minimum. If no torn ligament, he can come back with a brace in a few weeks. He was hurt on a simple QB sneak too, but he couldn't bend his leg. The Madden Curse is for real. You hate to see injuries to any player, but this actually hurts the Bears as KC plays GB next week, then MIN the following week. It is highly unlikely that Mahomes will play in either of those games, making KC pedestrian at best. On the other side, Denver looked like absolute garbage. I am surprised Fangio has not gotten fired yet. Even though it's not his fault, that offense is terrible. Flacco should be called Sacco for all the sacks he took. At least Bolles should've surpassed Leno for the most penalties after tonight's game.

I did a little deeper dive into the cap for 2020. It looks like the cap will be at $199M for 2020, and the Bears might have somewhere around $18.5M in cap carry-over (if they want to use it, which I think they will have no choice doing. With 36 players under contract in 2020 + current Dead Money = $205M. So we are over by $6M. So the team is going to have to get creative on some future deals (like EJack's, ie front load a ton of money and use the carryover) or sign some guys to one-year deals (Trevathan, McManis, etc). My assumption is the Bears will cut Long, Amukamara, Patterson, and Davis to create about $24.25M in cap space. With these cuts the Bears would have at least 21 roster spots to fill out the 53-man roster and starting spots of ILB, RG, S, and CB to fill, as well as backup QB and rotational DE (RRH). The bottom line is the Bears will have to use the carryover. With it, plus the other space added from the cuts would create just over $36.75M in cap space ($18.25M in real cap) available to fill 21 roster spots. I figure they will bring back about 12 guys at similar deals (bottom of the 53) at about $11M. That leaves 9 spots for just under $26M. They have 6 draft picks, so say about $5M for the rookie pool, which leaves 3 spots to fill in free agency for about $21M ($2.5 in real cap). So the Bears can essentially use the entire carryover value to sign guys like Trevathan, HHCD, RRH, backup QB or extend EJack, but will have to understand that in 2021, that $18.5M is gone. So free agency would basically be re-signing the same guys back to new deals or picking up 2-3 new pieces for 2020. So we are not as bad off at it originally seemed, but the Bears will have to get creative on how they structure deals and should probably front-load some to take advantage of the carryover money so they can withstand the cap drop after the carryover is gone in 2021. Summary: 1. After rookie pool and draft picks (6) signed, the Bears would have 15 spots to fill on 53-man with $31.75M to spend. 2. If the Bears bring back 12 guys from the bottom of their current 53-man (subs), they would have about $20.75M left to spend on 3-4 key spots (or extensions, ie Jackson). The number of spots to fill and amount of cap will be dependent on how many guys are re-signed. 3. Of the $20.75M, only $2.25M would be real cap, which means the team would have to ensure contracts fit in 2021 and beyond without the $18.5M. With another $10M in cap space expected between 2020 and 2021, the Bears cap would drop from an increased size of $217.5M in 2020 to $209M in 2021 (decrease of 8.5M). The silver lining is the team doesn't have any huge bumps in salary cap hits from 2020 to 2021. So if they can make things work in 2020, then 2021 should not be a problem. 4. The Bears can also restructure a few guys to create some cap space in 2020. Guys like Hicks, Goldman and Whitehair would create about $11M in cap space. 5. Starter and key contributor spots currently open are: ILB (Trevathan), S (HHCD), CB (Amukamara), RG (Long), backup QB (Daniel), and DE (RRH). If two are filled with draft picks (2nd rounders), only 3 would need to be addressed in free agency with about $20M in space. I think this is totally doable.

That dude is hilarious, because he then writes this about signing Hooper in the offseason: http://sportsmockery.com/2019/10/bears-may-have-a-chance-to-end-tight-end-woes-with-austin-hooper/ We are not in good shape. We have a bunch of holes to fill with over 20 free agents leaving and most of the 33 others guys getting raises. The problem is most of our underperformers other than Long are signed thru at least 2020 and some beyond. I am going to make a table/chart to show where we are at. Also, Overthecap is taking all of our available cap space this year and applying it to next year (which the team may not utilize fully), because that would give us nothing to carry over in 2021 and we would have even deeper cuts to make.

If we can't beat the Saints without Brees and Kamara, we might as well do a fire sale and restock with a new QB next year. No excuses if Kamara doesn't play. Just double Thomas and keep the LB's on Murray and we should be good.

With White not being on a roster, we lose the Amos comp pick unless we cut one of our new FAs, and Davis seems to fit the bill perfectly. Underutilized and overpaid, cut him before Week 10 and we get a 4th round comp pick. We still don't have very many early picks next draft, only 2x 2nds, then we don't pick again until the 5th round. So we need to take two surefire impact players or move back and recoup some mid round picks.

Somewhat of an interesting revelation, Miller was still wearing a shoulder harness last game (ripped it off after he had that drop). We might see a better performance out of him this week:

Not that his injury is ideal, but he was already dealing with a knee injury as well and wasn't 100% since he got hurt against Washington. If we can hold serve with him out, we will have a healthy and fresh Akiem Hicks for the last 3 weeks of the season (GB, KC, and MIN), and hopefully a long playoff run.

So you're saying there's a chance? Brees not playing, Kamara may be limited? Early line has us favored by 3, so we are even on a neutral site. For as good as NO's record is, they have been very inconsistent. The team has scored over 30 3x, and 13 or less 3x. No in-between. On defense, the same thing. They have allowed 24 or more 4 times and 10 or less twice. All 5 of their wins have been by a TD or less, so they are in close games all the time. Their point differential is only +6 in 6 games, which is fairly pedestrian. I think we rebound and come out of the bye with a win at home. We need this game a lot more than the Saints do. I am thinking the Bears 16-13.

Someone made a comment about how set we are roster-wise with just the need for a few tweaks here and there due to how well Pace drafted, but after looking at the contracts and players we actually drafted that are starting, we are not as well off as I thought. We now have the 10th oldest roster and several of the older players are locked up for several years, which prevents us from getting younger.

Those calls were brutal calls and have an impact on us and the Vikings. Instead of us chasing a 3-1-1 team for first in the division, we are now chasing a 5-1 team that is also 3-0 in the division. Not that the race is over, but if we are all trying to get to 11 wins, the Packers can get there by only going 6-4. We now have to go 8-2 just to tie them. At this point, we have to sweep the rest of the division and hope GB loses at least one between MIN and DET. That is a tall order for any team. So a WC berth may be the only realistic option, especially with our schedule and injuries.

Hicks can return in 8 weeks, practice in 6. He did not require surgery, so this seems to only be a standard elbow dislocation.

For Trubisky, it also seems like he is not trusting what he is seeing, which leads to delayed or bad decisions.

I was exactly the way, I was stoked that we were about to select Watson and then heard Mitch's name. I have backed him so far and will continue to but the writing is on the wall, it's Year 3, if I had that many years to learn my job I would unemployed.

Hicks did not need surgery and can return Week 15 against GB:

Some good news:

The offense needs to play angry, get pissed off because you are being disrespected. The O-Line needs to start steamrolling some people. I agree 110% on Burton and Miller, you can add Shaheen to that. I think Nagy is coming around, you are seeing more of Montgomery and less of Davis. Now he needs to stop giving it to Cohen up the gut and save him for plays where he is guaranteed to have a little space.

It depends if they did surgery or not. If it was just a dislocation, then he can be back in 8-10 weeks. If there was surgery involved with any torn ligament or tendon, then he would more than likely be out until spring. Since they didn't put him on IR or IR and return, that makes me think they are looking more at 6-8 weeks. His loss is big but if we have Nichols back, that should help compensate for the loss of Hicks. I am just hoping whatever was bothering Burton, Smith, and Miller is gone. Those guys are all needed in order for us to win games. I think we match up pretty well with New Orleans, especially if Bridgewater plays. On a side note, media is already pitting NE vs SF in the SB, yet they fail to mention those two teams have played teams with a combined record of 16-44 (Bills 4-1 are the only team with a winning record to play either of those two). So there can definitely be teams at 4-1 or 3-2 that are better, but they just played a tougher schedule.

Looks like Gabriel, Nichols, and Larsen all practiced today. Trubisky threw and did not have a pitch count, so that's a good sign. Nagy didn't have much on Hicks, so I am assuming he is gone until mid-December at the earliest. Long definitely confirmed to be on IR for the season.

Hopefully they bring up Bars and try Coward at Guard. Check out this review of Coward's play against MIN when he came in at RG. He looked like the best O-Lineman immediately. Pretty impressive:

Watson was my choice and it still burns me that we didn't select him. I think Mahomes is great but so many of his plays are to wide open receivers or where the receivers make ridiculous catches. That formula seems like it will eventually dry up. I would probably take Watson over Mahomes even today. I like Watson's mobility and if he can add 5-10 lbs onto his frame and keep his quickness, he will only be that much better. Trubisky is definitely #3 in the 2017 draft, and we are going to see these comparisons ad nauseam for the next 15 years unless Trubisky improves or we get a new QB.

The offensive drop off is actually quite shocking considering what other teams have done with backup QBs (CAR, NO, etc). That tells me it's more than just Trubisky. The scary part is Pace has locked up a couple guys with huge contracts and they have yet to live up to their price tags. All we need is for our offensive players to do what they did last year with just a little improvement and this magically becomes a 10-11 win team. Right now we are so inconsistent it seems like we are headed for an 8-8 or 9-7 season and just miss the playoffs.

Yeah, I definitely didn't see anything beyond 9-7 last year. 12-4 was amazing. All I was pointing out was as much praise as Pace has received for drafting guys like EJack and Cohen, a bunch of draft picks that we held onto for a while have faded or never lived up to their draft status. I think we are just seeing a bunch of players underperforming. Even Jackson thru 5 games has done nothing impactful. He has 0 INTS, 0 Sacks, and 0 Forced Fumbles. He was due for regression to the mean, but he has goose eggs across the board. If you only knew Jackson from 2019, would you be giving him top 5 Safety money? Right now, no way. Even on something like passed defended, he had 15 in 14 games last year, thru 5 games he has 2. His counterpart, HHCD has had 2 PD and 2 INTs, a TD, and more tackles than EJack. You could say HHCD is actually playing better than EJack from that a numbers perspective. How about Fuller, he had a huge year last year. This year, QBs are completing 79.5% of passes thrown his way (up 23% from 2018). QB's have a 90.4 QB Rating throwing at Fuller. Prince has been equally soft, allowing 77.3% of passes thrown his way. QB's have a 120.6 QB Rating throwing at Prince. Those are our starting CBs. Not good. For all the flak Buster Skrine takes, he has actually been our best CB. QB's only complete 52.2% of passes thrown at Skrine with a 76.9 QB Rating. For 2020 draft, I would like to see Pace just pick BPA from a guy with a great college pedigree from a high performing school. Those guys tend to have the best chance at succeeding in the NFL.