adam

Good call Adam, 35-16 compared to your 33-19 prediction.

The defense shutting down Bigsby and Thomas was nice to see. Outside of Engram (who fumbled), they didn't do too much. Another game under 20 pts allowed is seriously crazy. The defense is underrated because no one player outside of Johnson and maybe Sweat get national praise. Full team effort, great preparation, low penalties. Awesome win and a great way to start the day/week, into a bye. Next up Washington. 4-2 into the bye. Williams figuring things out on the fly. 23-29, mostly throw aways for the incompletions and the one bad INT. He added 56 on the ground. I am going to have to look it up, but he has some historic numbers thru 6 games as a rookie. 1,319 yards, 9 TD, 5 INT and 169 rushing yards thru 6 games.

Williams could've had 6 TD passes, the INT under throw, and the Moore stop at the half yard line. Crazy.

This bodes well for the rest of the season. If the defense can have 3 starters out and still play solid, wow. The offense is unstoppable uptempo.

3 guys out in the secondary, the offense is going to need to keep scoring and burn clock.

14-3 at half. Considering how bad the first few drives were and how they got ripped off by that BS call, they should feel amazing going into the half. Williams with probably his worst throw as a pro, but shakes it off and wills the team to a TD drive to end the half. Kmet having himself a game, 2 TDs and long snapping duties. The defense, and Gordon in particular decided enough was enough and forced 3 straight punts. Bigsby held in check with only 5 rushes for 18 yards. Bears lead in yards 223 to 111. Taylor is averaging 61.5 yards per punt.

First drive. Running back to back Swift then trying to force it to Allen is so predictable. God I hate these scripted plays Screen to Moore for 2 yd loss. Can we throw the ball down the field? This is gonna be a long game.

Basically RG4

Yeah at this point the money is spent, just cut your losses and open up a roster spot for someone that can contribute.

Nate Davis a healthy scratch, Bears by 20.

Daniels has thrown the 2nd most passes behind the LOS and looks to be a single read QB where they have just cut the field in half for him (like Trubisky). That can work for a few weeks but eventually defenses adjust. Looking at his passing chart, if teams shade or overload to his right, he is going to struggle as a passer.

The weird piece is he has won 4 out of 5 Pepsi Rookie of the Week awards and has yet to throw for 300 yards. That is wild to me, especially with what Caleb did, and what Brian Thomas and Nabers have been doing. Once defenses adjust, you will see a pretty steep decline.

After SF beat SEA, the Bears are still WC2, the 6th Seed, at 3-2. If the season ended today, they would be playing the 3-seed, Atlanta.

Jags Safeties are the worst duo in the NFL by a long shot.

Interesting note about Daniels: Daniels has thrown 29.0% of his passes behind the line of scrimmage this season (2nd-highest in the NFL) with 21.4% of all his attempts being screen passes, the only quarterback to throw a screen on more than 20% of his passes.

Game Insights: Bears running backs have been contacted behind the line of scrimmage on just 33.6% of their carries this season, 3rd-lowest in the NFL, but have recorded just 0.8 yards before contact per carry, 21st in the NFL. The Bears are also one of two teams to have recorded just 3 explosive runs (10+ yards) from their running backs this season (Chiefs) and have generated -80 rush yards over expected as result (3rd-lowest in the NFL). The Bears defense has allowed the 3rd-lowest conversion rate (31.7%) and 4th-lowest completion percentage over expected (-11.1%) on third down this season. The Jaguars have the 3rd-lowest conversion rate on third down this season (27.8%). Meanwhile, Trevor Lawrence has completed -8.7% of his passes below expected on third down, the 5th-lowest mark among quarterbacks; his 42.5% completion percentage (17 of 40) is the 2nd-lowest on third down. The Bears defense is one of three units to have five defenders with double digit pressures this season (Texans, Seahawks), helping them generate a 34.7% pressure rate (13th) and a 19.1% quick pressure rate (7th). Jaguars blockers have allowed the 5th-lowest pressure rate through 5 weeks (27.5%). They have been especially strong on the interior, as all three interior linemen are top 3 in pressure rate allowed at their positions - LG Ezra Cleveland: 3.3% (3rd), C Mitch Morse: 2.2% (2nd), RG Brandon Scherff: 1.7% (1st).

Ugh, looks like Tyrique is out, tweaked something in practice today, now doubtful for Sunday. No Brisker and no Stevenson. You can assume the Jags are going to attack whoever lines up across from Jaylon now. Terrell Smith was already out, so now the Bears are super thin at DB. Josh Blackwell is now the only sub CB to cover down on Johnson, now Jaylon Jones, and Gordon. Not good.

London weather on Sunday morning, game time temps in the low to mid 40s. Jacksonville coming from mid 70-low 80s to 40s is a pretty big shock. Couple that with the late arrival and I would feel like crap. So not only do the Jags have to get acclimated to the time change, they also have to get acclimated to the weather.

Jags fans super confident. Pretty funny thread. I liked this one, one guy called Caleb "Johnson" and says he thinks the Bears will win 23-6, and the next guy's reply is golden:

I am going with Bears 33-19. The Bears offense is averaging 30 over their last two games and JAX has allowed an average of 35 over their last 3 weeks. Those are some strong trends. The Bears have yet to allow 20 pts this season.

There actually is. The Athletic did an article here: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5811903/2024/10/03/nfl-london-games-analysis-arrival/ The team that arrives early is actually 7-2 in the last 9 games (since 2017). The farther you go back, the games actually even out. I think that is why a lot of teams did arrive later because early on, those teams seemed to have the advantage. However, lately, the team that arrives early has a clear edge.

Jacksonville knew a hurricane was coming to Florida, and decided to wait it out before leaving for Europe? Now they are delayed leaving Jacksonville and won't get in until later on Friday. Supposedly this is something they do regularly, though they will arrive later. https://www.newsday.com/sports/football/jaguars-london-hurricane-t17980 I can't imagine arriving to Europe after a 9-hour flight, then playing an NFL football game less than 48 hours later. It normally takes me 3 days to fully get adjusted to the time change when it is that large.

From what I have seen, the final QBR is weighted for the opponent. So for Week 5, Williams had a raw QBR of 89.7 (1st in NFL), but that was weighted down to 83.9. In comparison, Red Rifle had a raw QBR of 22.3 against the Bears, that was weighted up to a 32.8 because of how good the Bears defense has been. Then you have to account for snap count per game, which also weights the season average. In Caleb's case, he had 52 attempts his last two weeks in total, which is the same amount he had against IND alone. So the IND game, with so many passes weighs him down right now. His 2nd highest attempts total was against HOU, another lower game. So he needs a few plus games to dilute those lower ones.

JAX has 2x 200-yd rushers in Etienne and Bigsby, yet are 30th in TOP and in 3rd Down%. So odd. Their offense should be solid with Thomas, Kirk, and Davis as their top 3 WR, but it looks like they really miss Evan Engram who hasn't played since getting hurt in Week 1. Hopefully, he doesn't come back for this one with Brisker out. I like our defenses chance against JAX, and the offense has a favorable matchup against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. From a matchup perspective, the Bears have the edge.

Bears are slowly creeping up the charts. After Week 5, DVOA is up to 20th (last week 23), Offensive DVOA 26th, Defensive DVOA 8th, ST DVOA 8th. They have currently played the 2nd easiest DVOA schedule and going forward they have the 7th most difficult. The division games and SF are the toughest games going forward. JAX, WAS, NE, and ARZ are the easiest, and ironically, the next 4 games. So the Bears really need to win 3 out of the next 4, and hit the gauntlet of death at 6-3. If they do that, they have a shot because even 4-4 should be enough for a WC slot at 10-7. They always play DET well, GB looks off this year, MIN can't maintain this level for 18 weeks, and SF looks like a totally different team without McCaffrey, who may be back by then, but who knows. MIN is the only team with a better defense (so far) than the Bears. HOU and TEN are better defenses than all future opponents than MIN and SF, so that is promising for the Bears. Especially if the offense improves.