adam

You are correct that they want even money because that neutralizes any wins and they take their 10%. Here is a great article about it: https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/bears/ct-chicago-bears-underdog-las-vegas-oddsmakers-point-spread-20201016-cm3sj4gnxvfhbg2kmogpyibvby-story.html That article clearly shows that the oddsmakers have their own sentiment about teams. The Bears are the Lions to them.

They also said they were giving him the day off to rest. Luckily the game is on Monday night, so he gets an extra day and half off to rest it.

TB has 4 wins, CAR 3-2, DEN 2-2, LAC 1-3, and GB 4-0 for SoV. They have beat 3 teams at or above .500.

Just like normal SoS is the combined record of the teams that you've played, SoV is only the records of the teams you beat (minus the game where you beat them). So TB is 4-2 overall but 4-1 for SoV (subtract the loss to the Bears for our SoV). CAR is 3-2, ATL is 1-4, DET is 2-2, and NYG is 1-5 for our SoV calculation. Add all those up and you get the Bears SoV. IND does not count because we lost to them. It's kinda cool because it only gives you credit for wins. Some teams SoS is padded by good teams they lose to. This does not give you that benefit.

Wentz was dropped on the 21st, so I will have to check when he would be available after that transaction. Wentz played last night, so he is now on waivers for this week's games which and is available to be picked up on Oct 28th thru the waiver wire.

I predicted a 24-16 Bears win last week (they won 23-16). This week I am thinking we get 2 TDs and the Rams get 1 with a few FGs sprinkled in. Bears 20-13.

There is also this. We have the 3rd best Strength of Victory in the NFC. The Rams are 9th.

No relation lol, but it is pretty clear that the Bears have been at the short end of a ton of calls.

You know it's bad when a player is actively calling for another teammate's replacement.

Coward was just as bad. You are correct, they both need to go. I actually expect both to be replaced by or during the bye.

He lost his starting job and they weren't going to pay him that much to be a backup. For the league minimum, there is no way he is worse than Coward.

He looks so disinterested. O-Linemen have to want to block. He does not. I would put Spriggs in there to see what he can do. I would also bring in Spain for LG. Something has to be done. Montgomery doesn't even need good blocking, he just doesn't need to be hit behind the LOS or near it EVERY run.

Now that made me laugh.

Coward was terrible as well. I am not defending him, but he is a converted D-Linemen who was thrown in at LG mid-season. Leno is a high paid LT who looks like he doesn't even want to be out there. He doesn't want to block. I could make more videos because every play was the same. Unless the defensive player ran right at him, he would be in their way (like a tackling dummy).

14:07 left in the 2nd quarter, Leno whiffs on #52 who makes the tackle on Montgomery. Harris also completely misses his cut block. Just put a helmet on a helmet. Leno is a lazy POS if you ask me. I have seen enough from him. He is not even making an attempt to block. 9:31 in the 2nd quarter, here is Leno completely whiffing on #52 who forces Monty outside. If Leno blocks him, Monty can cut the play inside of #21 and has only one guy to beat. Due to missed block, it pushes him outside for a short gain.

ok, I am going thru the coach's film now. I would outright cut Leno. I have no clue what the hell he is doing on any play. He whiffs literally on every block, especially run blocking, where the guy he missed gets the tackle on Montgomery. I will post some vids here shortly.

If we split against GB and sweep MIN and DET, we have a realistic shot at 13 wins with losses only coming against IND, GB, and TEN. 12 wins if we split NO/LAR.

I bolded my initial comment. We are well on our way and right on track for 11-5. We are entering the worst stretch, weeks 7-10. We just need a split here to be in great shape after the bye.

I had us beating TB and CAR, then losing 3 straight. Now looking at this, we have winnable games against LAR and NO and a probable loss against TEN and probable win against MIN. So we need to split LAR and NO, and split TEN/MIN to go into the bye at 7-3.

So we are now #10 in the Sagarin Ratings (https://www.usatoday.com/sports/nfl/sagarin/) with the 21st SoS (for record) and are now 14th in DVOA (https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/team-efficiency/2020) with the 13th toughest schedule in DVOA. Funny how a few weeks playing IND, TB, and CAR changed that theme. Our offense is 26th in DVOA (still bad), and our defense is #5. Surprisingly our Special Teams ranks 24th, which is odd to me with one of the best returners, solid punting and great kicking of late. Using the ELO model at 538 we are ranked 10th, have an 85% chance to make the playoffs and finish with an 11-5 record. btw, that means we only need to go 6-4 in our next 10 games, so we can expect 3-2 twice.

24 First Downs given to opponents compared to 13 for us is insane. That is why these games have felt so tight.

Yeah, especially if they send two linemen to block him and he drops into coverage. Now you have 2x O-Linemen on an island with no one to block while the other 3x linemen are trying to scramble and block the remaining rushers.

Looking back at the pick. If you watch it unfold, Foles has the receiver open but he just can't get enough on it with the pressure hitting him as he throws it. That would've looked like an amazing play if you he a few split seconds more to throw.

I hope Kmet starts to get Harris' targets because Harris has hands of stone. Two huge drops on easily catchable balls. Give those to Kmet.

So we now have a 78.3% chance to make the playoffs, the 3rd highest in the NFC behind Seattle and Tampa Bay. With 7 teams making the playoffs, the 8th place team is actually 4-2 (ARZ), so it's not like there has been any separation from the pack yet. The 9th team is NO at 3-2. SF is still a solid team at 3-3, and they are 10th. So even at 5-1, we are only 1 or 2 wins from being out of the playoffs looking in. With LAR, NO, TEN coming up, one win is a minimum, but 2 may be needed to keep pace.