adam

Titans Message Boards are hilarious. https://www.titansreport.com/topic/47869-week-1-titans-vs-bears-discussion/ Here are some nuggets from this 26 page thread: They spend 20+ pages infighting about Caleb Williams and then it starts a personal war between a few posters. 90% of the posts are personal attacks against each other. However, when they did post. It was basically Williams is overrated and Levis is amazing. One of the best ones is the guy who said the Bears were the worst team in the NFL last year because they drafted #1. That is all you need to know about the competency level of their fanbase. Clueless.

Going off EPA/Play which is ultimately what drives the scoring, the Bears have a very easy schedule in terms of defenses they will face. The best defense in terms of EPA/Play is SF, which was 8th. NE is the next best defense which was 9th and JAX was 13th. All other defenses were worse than the Bears defense, so 14 games against inferior defenses. From an EPA perspective, the Bears have an overall better team in 7 games outright, a huge edge in 2, and are comparable in 7 other games (probably split), and have only one overall disadvantage (against SF). CHI OVR ADVANTAGE: CAR, WAS, ARZ, TEN, IND, MINx2 = 7 CHI HUGE EDGE: NE, SEA = 2 CHI COMPARABLE: JAX, GBx2, LAR, DETx2, HOU = 7 CHI DISADVANTAGE: SF = 1 This is using last year's numbers. Obviously, teams can improve, stay the same, or get worse. To me, it is hard to say the Bears didn't improve this offseason, and with Williams and Odunze, more than most other teams they play. This type of schedule really looks like 10+ wins.

Weaknesses: cornerbacks, interior defensive line, running back, quarterback, and wide receiver. In other words, majority of the team. Funny that they don't see TE as a weakness, that should be one as well.

Listening to the most recent Adam Rank Podcast with Tyler Scott. Scott remarked about how he could tell that the game was slowing down for Williams, which is huge if true because that is one of the few things that crush rookie QBs.

Yeah, their TE1 is Okonkwo, who is decent, but would probably be TE3 on the Bears.

Surtain getting a bigger contract than Jaylon is crazy. I don't understand the Surtain hype. Last year he had 1 INT, the 11th most air yards against (483), an 88.2 Passer Rating against and allowed 12.2 yards a reception. Johnson had a 50.9 Passer Rating against, 4 INT, and allowed 8.7 per reception against. Surtain is closer to Stevenson than Johnson and Stevenson had more INTs. Stevenson: 4 INT, 492 Air Yards against, 93.7 Passer Rating Against, and 11.9 yards per reception against. Like what am I missing about Surtain? His PFF Coverage Grade is on the 3rd page at 64.7 (63rd amongst qualified CBs). Terrell Smith 65.4, Gordon 68.2, Jaylon 90.4, Stevenson 59.1. So again, he is closer to Stevenson and Smith than Jaylon. So what gives?

He is different. I think he breaks all the trends and looks elite right out the gate. It would not shock me if he breaks several rookie passing records. 4,374 Passing Yards, 31 TDs, 627 Passing Attempts, 396 Completions, 13-3 Record.

QBs that are #1 picks are 0-8-1 in Week 1 games dating back to David Carr in 2002, who was the last #1 QB to win his pro debut in Week 1. I understand the perceived correlation, but in reality, this just points to the fact that #1 QBs normally go to really bad teams. Here are the previous 9 QBs that formed the 0-8-1 record and how their team did in Week 1: Bryce Young - 2023 - 24-10 Loss, 146 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT, 2 Sacks Trevor Lawrence - 2021 - 37-21 Loss, 332 yards, 3 TD, 3 INT, 1 Sack Joe Burrow - 2020 - 16-13 Loss, 193 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 3 Sacks, 1 Rush TD Kyler Murray - 2019 - 27-27 Tie, 308 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 5 Sacks Jameis Winston - 2015 - 42-14 Loss, 210 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT, 4 Sacks Andrew Luck - 2012 - 41-21 Loss (to Da Bears!), 309 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT, 3 Sacks, 1 FL Cam Newton - 2011 - 28-21 Loss (Holy crap, Cam threw for 422 and 432 yards in his 1st two pro games), 422 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 4 Sacks, 1 Rush TD Sam Bradford - 2010 - 17-13 Loss, 253 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT, 2 Sacks Matthew Stafford - 2009 - 45-27 Loss, 205 yards, 0 TD, 3 INT, 1 Sack, 1 Rush TD So in 6 of the 9 games, the QB's teams allowed 27+ points. I doubt the Titans score 20. Only twice were opponents held under 20 pts. 4x 300-yard games, only two QBs under 200 yards passing. Average: 264 Yards, 1.3 TD, 2.1 INT, 2.8 Sacks, 0.3 Rush TD

It might be on Hard Knocks. I couldn't find any totals. I was just being sarcastic about Davis and his one injured vote for himself.

Odunze is the wild card for me. If Allen is replacing Mooney, Odunze is replacing Claypool, which is some crazy upgrades. I also did not recall that Roschon had the 4th most targets last year behind Moore, Kmet, and Mooney. He had more than TE2 and WR3. Now that is Everett and Odunze with Swift ahead of him. If all QBs combined can throw for 3400 yards and opponents can throw for 4200 on the Bears defense, I still don't see why Williams is not throwing for 3800+ with his eyes closed?

Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. Also, for some reason, we match up very well against the Lions. So even though they may be a top 5 team, we should be good for a split with them. Besides them, SF is really the only other top 5 team. In SF, chalk that up as a loss. It feels like all other games are winnable. It makes sense because they did lose 3 games in ridiculous fashion, so they could've been a 10-win team. Everything else points to that as well. So I think 10 is the floor, 13 is the ceiling. Injuries or Caleb completely choking (a ton of turnovers) would be the only thing preventing that, IMO.

I have been trying to find something that points to the Bears having a bad season, or be worse than they were a year ago. I can't find anything, and everything points up. Waldron > Getsy Caleb > Justin (as a passer) Swift > Foreman Everett > Tonyan Shelton > Patrick Allen > Mooney Odunze > Claypool Byard > Jackson Taylor > Gill One of the easier schedules, with a net rest advantage.

What I find kind of weird is that the Bears defense was tied for 3rd for EPA/Rush and allowed the fewest rushing yards at 86.4 yards a game last year. To me it just felt like the rushing defense was below average, with only Billings as a true run defender. Jones and Ngakoue were both bad against the run, and those two are gone. If Dexter and Pickens can improve, with the elite secondary, this defense may be better than we think.

Absolutely. This team is going to go wherever Caleb takes them. If he has a "normal" rookie year, we will probably end up with 7-9 wins. If he has a year that many expect him to have (just based on historical trends), the Bears should win 10+. I just found it interesting that the Bears were 11th (higher than expected) and had the biggest DVOA jump that I could find (ever). This year's team should be better, if not as good as that team was but for an entire year. The 11th best team is a 10 win team, which tracks with pretty much all other metrics, SoS, WAR, AV, PFF, etc. I like that kinda party!

So the Bears ended up as the 22nd-best team for Total DVOA for the season. However, they finished 11th in Weighted DVOA (games later in the season have more value) which was somewhat surprising to me. 26 teams remained within 4 spots +/- when comparing season DVOA and Weighted DVOA. That leaves 6 teams that moved more than normal, 2 teams jumped up 11, and 4 teams dropped between 5 and 7 spots: 1. CHI +11 (+13.8) 2. LVR +11 (+12.7) ------------------------ 29. CLE -5 30. HOU -6 31. JAX -7 32. PHI -7 So a few things. I am not giving CHI or LVR enough credit for last year's last season surge and I am probably giving HOU, JAX, and PHI too much credit when they benefitted greatly from hot starts. PHI for example, ended the season 21st in Weighted DVOA. That projects for them to have a losing record this year. Going off Weighted DVOA, this is how the season projects for these 6 teams: CHI 11-6 LVR 10-7 CLE 9-8 HOU 8-9 JAX 8-9 PHI 7-10 Obviously, more data goes into outcomes, but it is nice to see the Bears projections matching up across multiple data sets whereas a team like PHI is all over the map. https://ftnfantasy.com/dvoa/nfl/team-total-dvoa

lol good one, the vote is day to day.

It was his own vote.

Nate Davis snubbed, he had one vote.

That is a good list. Lewis is also like a dad/uncle to some of the younger guys as he is the age of their parents lol. He is like a team elder or shaman. He has seen so much football that he can provide something that no other player can (outside of Scales). Adding him as a coach would be a smart move.

Yes we have 2 spots available. You can move a player, then add another.

Another comparison, if you just use record and pts differential, here are the Bears comps over the last 15 years. Anything older doesn't seem like a valid comparison because how the game has changed. 2019 - Ravens 4-0 +66 > 14-2 2013 - Seahawks 4-0 +74 > 13-3* (won SB) 2012 - Seahawks 4-0 +78 > 11-5 2011 - Lions 4-0 +67 > 10-6 So the last 4 teams to go undefeated in the preseason with a +60 pts differential went a combined 48-16 (12-4 average record) in that upcoming season. If you average the two sets of comparisons (PFF Grades + Record/Pt Diff), the Bears are projected to finish 11-6.

Yeah, it definitely needs to have context. I was trying to find any real comps to the Bears after seeing the high grades and the only two teams even remotely close were the 2020 Pats (highest OVR PFF Grade) and 2022 Dolphins (led league for OVR, OFF, and DEF). So if you compare NE's 2020 preseason to the Bears this year: The Bears opponents' combined record from 2023 was 41-27 with the worst team being the 9-8 Bengals. The Patriots opponents' combined record from 2020 was 17-30-1 with the best team being the 7-9 Division Winning Commanders. So in reality, that was a solid Pats team punching down on weak teams (even if it is subs and bottom 53 dudes). So the Bears preseason looks even better. Then when you compare to MIA in 2022, Miami went 2-1 in the preseason, not 4-0. So I think we just witnessed the most dominant preseason in NFL history and didn't even know it.

I was going thru some stats and just came across the fact that the Bears were the highest-rated team in the preseason (per PFF) with an OVR grade of 89.5 (2nd highest preseason grade in PFF history). JAX was 2nd with 88.0 and DEN was the only other team over 80 with a 81.1 The Bears also had the #1 graded offense AND #1 graded defense. The defense was so good that they cleared the next best team (NYJ) by almost 5pts. I know it is only preseason, but I did find some correlation between Preseason PFF grades and regular-season success. Last season, the top 5 graded defenses in the preseason were: GB, TB, DET, HOU, and IND/BUF tied for 5th. All teams had a winning record and only IND missed the playoffs. For overall grades, the top 5 teams were LVR, GB, TB, KC, and BUF. LVR was the worst at 8-9. GB and TB were the only teams to be in the top 5 overall, in offense and defense, and both teams made the playoffs. The Bears are the only team in the PFF era to lead the NFL overall, in offense and defense with all grades over 80.0. The only other team to lead the league across all categories were the 2022 Dolphins (9-8 and made the playoffs) but they had a defensive grade of 75.4 that year. Circling back, the highest OVR PFF Grade for a preseason was the 2021 Patriots (89.7), so the Bears were 0.2 shy of that mark. The Patriots were 10-7 that season. I know people take PFF with a grain of salt, but it does look like when you take in the macro view, there is some correlation there.

I think the Bears record will be another factor. The Bears will have 8 games in the books before the trade deadline (NOV 5th). If they are 6-2 (which is very possible), I think they will acquire either a DT or Edge to help with the playoff push, even if Booker and Dexter are holding their own. TEN, IND, CAR, WAS, and ARZ should be wins. Then it's HOU, LAR, and JAX in the other 3. LAR and JAX are at home. Win one of those three and the Bears are 6-2. Interestingly enough, the Bears are favored in 5 games currently, and dogs in 3 (HOU, IND, and JAX). IND and JAX are by 1 pt and HOU by 3.5.

I think a top 10 defense for the entire year would still be a massive jump from last year. Yes they were top 5 for a good chunk of the season, but depending on what metric you use, they were not even a top 15 defense for the entire season.