adam

I don't deny that everyone is saying that because that is the popular opinion. However, they are going in with the information that they have, and most, if not all of them don't work at Halas Hall. I am also in that camp but it just seems like what Poles setup last year. I could be totally wrong and they go sign Kirk Cousins. We don't know if Vegas just offered up Crosby+a historic haul for #1 to pair Williams with Kingsbury? or what other offers are on the table. I still think there is a chance that they trade the #1 if the price is right, but it's high.

Not if we trade the #1 pick.......

Actually, there is one more layer to this, and it may be the most important aspect when you are talking about the logistics of it. If Fields kills it with Atlanta, Poles and Flus can blame Getsy!! Seriously. So with Williams, all he can't do is become a bust and Poles for sure will be safe for several years. If Fields stays the same or is worse somewhere else, they can say, see it was him. So they have an out basically on 75% of the outcomes. The only one they can't overcome is the bust one, and that would apply with any QB, not just Williams. So in reality, drafting a QB and trading Fields provides them with the best odds for long term success. The odds of Fields all of a sudden becoming significantly better with a 3rd Offensive staff is very low. Those are probably the lowest odds of any outcome.

It interesting is listening to just general Senior Bowl coverage, or other team's coverage as it is very unbiased opinions about the Bears (except NFC North Podcasts/etc). The consensus is Bears will take Williams at #1, and that almost seems like a fact. They are talking more about where Fields could potentially go, and how much it will cost. Teams like Pittsburgh, Atlanta, and Vegas are the 3 most popular destinations. When you look at their fanbase, most are super excited to get Fields and feel like he was given a raw deal in Chicago.

Yep, compared to WAS who basically missed out on all the coaching hires, had OCs turn down the job and stay with their current teams. It makes sense.

So the Bears essentially have 2x OCs (have called plays before), and multiple position coaches and assistants that have been the primary position coach before. In the past, the Bears would have to hire a parking lot attendant to be a position coach, and a position coach to be a Coordinator. Not this year. Even on the defensive side, Washington, the new DC, has already been a DC and Asst HC before.

Now Jason Houghtaling (love the name) from the Titans as the Assistant OL Coach. He was the Titans OL Coach. This coaching staff is stacked, super impressed. Apparently the league or coaches don't think that Flus is a lame duck (or they do and know they will be promoted once he is fired lol).

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2024-nfl-free-agency-potential-landing-spots-for-top-quarterbacks-and-wide-receivers 24. WR CALVIN RIDLEY, JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS Potential landing spot(s): Chicago Bears, Kansas City Chiefs With D.J. Moore in place, Chicago could get two players who are interchangeable as X-receivers up on the line and as good move/Z-receivers with alignment versatility. Both can create separation vertically, but Ridley could take the top off defenses even more and let Moore utilize his high-end after-the-catch abilities at the short and intermediate levels. Kansas City has shown time and time again that it isn’t going to make free agent splashes on older players, but perhaps the Chiefs buy low on a very good player who fits their play style profile as a really good separator with late hands. Every single mock draft from now until Round 1 of the 2024 Draft kicks off will have Kansas City taking one of the many great wide receivers in this class, but now picking either 31st or 32nd overall, the Chiefs address their biggest need in March and still leave the door open for a rookie. Top free agent comparison: Odell Beckham Jr., 2023 76. WR CURTIS SAMUEL, WASHINGTON COMMANDERS Potential landing spot(s): Chicago Bears, Miami Dolphins Bears star wideout D.J. Moore is very close friends with Samuel from their shared time with the Carolina Panthers, and perhaps there’s something to be taken about Moore’s influence in Chicago from the Bears hiring Moore’s former wide receivers coach at Maryland in Chris Beatty, though Beatty has had several college and NFL stops and is certainly a deserving candidate regardless. Samuel offers a skill set the Bears seemingly tried to acquire in drafting Velus Jones Jr. — he can carry the ball out of the backfield and also rack up yards after the catch from slot and wide alignments. Miami adding another inside/outside athlete that continues the track speed trend would be a fun third option alongside Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Mike McDaniel would surely take advantage of Samuel’s ability with the ball in his hands near the line of scrimmage, weaponizing plenty of pre-snap motion and diverse formations/alignments, and he can also still win over the top on occasion. Top free agent comparison: Adam Humphries, 2019 Thoughts if either of these two or both were targeted in FA?

McCaffrey's younger brother? Converted from QB to WR, so has only played WR for two years, at Rice. Looks pretty good. Has the DNA.

Absolutely, both have playcaller experience. Somehow he squeezed 103 receptions and 1,014 yards out of Thielen.

We got a 2fer:

Slowik not going anywhere either. So the top 2 guys that the Bears would've been targeting (outside of Harbaugh) are staying with their current teams as OCs (Johnson and Slowik). I guess neither of them were impressed with the WAS or SEA jobs.

This guy:

Courtney didn't mention Quentin Johnston. He didn't develop as fast as one would expect for a 1st rounder. Hope that is just a player thing.

He can't say that and be thinking of Fields, not with the slow drop back and hitch. Now he could be talking about a few prospects though (or Bagent......kidding).

They are going to purge and rebuild. It gives him 3 years+ before any will care with results. It also gives him an instant excuse.

Lol it's true. That is a lot of money for a little man.

I am at about 65/35 in the belief that the Bears are going to draft a QB at #1.

Ben Johnson is staying in Detroit, turned down the SEA and WAS jobs, wow. Maybe he is waiting on the Bears position to open up?

Yeah, I keep seeing good things about him, which may bump him into the late first though.

No who was he recruited by? Singletary?

Supposedly this chart was fake or super inaccurate. Drake Maye was one of the most accurate passers, not 15th.

Vildor got a game ball from SF. If Vildor just lets it hit the ground, the Lions probably win. How do you try to catch it, let it hit you in the face, then bounce off right to the WR you are supposed to be guarding? Vildor Vildoring. No team had lost in a Conference Championship with that big of a lead in the 2nd half. Lions are 1 of 1 now. Epic collapse, makes the Bears collapse in the regular season look tame.

Revisiting this. So in 2023, only 1 player in the top 13 in terms of cap hits didn't make the playoffs this year, Ryan Tannehill, who had a $36.6M cap hit (2nd in the NFL). The other 12 made it, including Mahomes at #1, Goff at #3, and Lamar at #13. So the thing about not being able to win without a QB on a rookie deal is false when 3 out of 4 finalists are in the top 13. Interestingly enough, Moore was 22nd in the NFL in terms of cap hit this season. Going into 2024, the Bears are looking amazing. Currently, their highest cap hit is Sweat who is 44th in the league, followed by Edmunds at #64, Jackson at #104 (likely cut), and Moore who is now #123. All the while, there will be 7 players over $40M, and Bakhtiari at $39.99M. Watson is at $63.97M, lmao, good luck Cleveland. Prescott is at $59.45M, and Mahomes is at $57.3M. Next year is going to be really telling for KC. KC basically has to cut a $20M player from their roster. Here are the 30M Men for 2024 (which does not include 2024 Free Agency): 2024 Cap Hit Rankings PLAYER POS CAP HIT 1 Deshaun Watson QB $63,977,000 - LMAO Cleveland Clowns CLE 2 Dak Prescott QB $59,455,000 DAL 3 Patrick Mahomes QB $57,358,269 KC 4 Kyler Murray QB $51,857,000 - That's basically $10M per foot ARI 5 Matthew Stafford QB $49,500,000 LAR 6 Daniel Jones QB $47,105,000 - This is what NFL purgatory looks like NYG 7 Josh Allen QB $47,056,281 BUF 8 David Bakhtiari LT $39,994,925 - $10M per snap GB 9 Khalil Mack OLB $38,517,500 - 1 of 4 Chargers with a cap hit over $32M - enjoy 7-10 LAC 10 Joey Bosa OLB $36,611,666 LAC 11 Derek Carr QB $35,700,000 - Buyer's remorse has set in. NO 12 Russell Wilson QB $35,400,000 - Does he still have his own office? DEN 13 Keenan Allen WR $34,717,500 - The highest paid WR in the NFL for cap hits? LAC 14 Aaron Donald DT $34,166,666 LAR 15 Mike Williams WR $32,460,000 - The 2nd highest paid WR in the NFL for cap hits? Chargering! LAC 16 Lamar Jackson QB $32,400,000 BAL 17 Jared Goff QB $31,650,064 DET 18 Trent Williams LT $31,524,638 SF 19 Tyreek Hill WR $31,323,750 MIA 20 Geno Smith QB $31,200,000 - he had a good season, but was it that good? SEA 21 T.J. Watt OLB $30,418,694 PIT

It seems like negative stats correlate well. Positive stats don't always correlate. Rarely, if ever, do bad players from college turn into great pros. However, a lot of great college QBs fail in the NFL.