adam

My only concern with Daniels was staying healthy. Unless he adds some meat on that frame, he is at risk for how much he runs. If he stays healthy, I feel like he will be a consistent 3,600 / 750 QB Outside of the Bears game, the most yards he ever threw for was 275. The most combined yards he put up was 354 and that was with 127 rushing yards against ATL. Caleb hit that number 3 times on a terrible team. Since he is a one-read, half the field QB, I think he is close to his ceiling, maybe a 3,800 / 1K guy, but that is max, which is really good. I just don't think you are going to see many 4K passing seasons from him ever. I could be wrong, but if you watch his games, his stats are saved by a huge chunk play on a busted coverage. 11 games with a 30+ yard pass, with 6 over 50. That is not sustainable. Another thing that is not sustainable, winning games on the last play in regulation, they have won their last 6 like that and I believe 8 on the season. Not sustainable.

So far it feels a little watered down compared to recent years. 3 games decided by 2 TDs or more. WAS seems to be blessed with the best luck. Down by 4, TB fumbles on their own 13 yard line, 4 plays later, WAS scores a TD and never trails again. They won by 3, so that play was the deciding factor and at least a 7 pt swing if not more. The best part of this weekend was seeing the GB frauds get sent packing where Love throws for 3 INTs and 0 TDs. Their only TD drive was when Jacobs accounted for 55 of the 78 yards. Herbert was just as bad if not worse than Love against HOU. He threw 4 picks and was sacked 4 times. So Herbert + Love threw more INTs (7) this weekend than Caleb did all season.

He ended up with 68 sacks, exactly 4 per game. If he can cut that down to 51, it would still be near the league lead but down 25%. Also, when he breaks contain, he tries to extend the play with a pass until the very last possible second. However, he has to know down and distance. There were several plays where he could easily get the 5-6 yards for a first by running, but he elected to stay behind the LOS until the defense swarmed, ending in an incompletion.

I dunno, I think there is still a Bears tax. I also think it is a name thing. Here are the players with double-digit losses to make the All-Pro Team on Offense and Defense, and none were hurt by a bad record: Myles Garrett, Cleveland 3-14 - No issues, potential DPoY Christian Gonzalez, New England 4-13 (20th PFF, 2 INT) > Made it over Jaylon and a few other CBs that were better Brock Bowers, Las Vegas 4-13 - No issues, best TE in the NFL Fred Warner, San Francisco 6-11 - Annual pastime, coverage skills on the decline Kyle Juszczyk, San Francisco 6-11 - 4 FBs in the league, but let's keep giving the position honors George Kittle, San Francisco 6-11 - 78 receptions to McBride's 111, it's the name CeeDee Lamb, Dallas 7-10 - Annual thing

Yeah, the bias is crazy. The voters hate Bears. Johnson should've been at least 2nd Team, and Gordon should've had at least a vote. Dexter got snubbed, but I think it was the low snap count. I will have to check on the others, but only 356 pass rushes seems low.

I hope I am wrong, but I don't know if the Bears want to wait 5 weeks to hire their new HC once these other candidates start getting hired elsewhere. The worst case scenario is they wait for Johnson, everyone else gets hired, he decides to stay with DET and the Bears end up with one of worst candidates.

I forgot to add SoS for the QBs. You cannot tell me that the ease of schedule didn't have anything to do with their overall numbers and W-L record. Williams still put up comparable numbers facing infinitely better teams and had to do it playing from behind most of the time (when they know you are passing). I equate it to a track race, Caleb is in the outer lane, Daniels is in the first lane, and Nix is in the middle. In addition to the lanes, Caleb also has a 10 degree incline while Daniels is running downhill at 12 degrees. Williams (.554 SoS) Attempts while leading: 98 Attempts while trailing: 410 Daniels (.436 SoS) Attempts while leading: 304 Attempts while trailing: 189 Nix (.502) Attempts while leading: 226 Attempts while trailing: 224

There are a few teams with cap issues, the Saints are one of them, thanks Ryan Pace. Erik McCoy looked like a potential trade target, but if the Saints want to reduce their 2025 cap, trading him would actually increase it, so that is a no-go. Which leads to another interesting potential issue in a few years. If teams continue to add these void years as a way to make the contracts better for the current cap, at some point that is going to come to a head where you will basically have 4-5 main guys and 45+ league minimum guys on your team. I hope it doesn't become the NBA.

Here is what I am tracking as of this morning. I tried to add their availability, and after this weekend a few more names may become available. Current HCs Thomas Brown (CHI Int HC) - Not in playoffs, #28 Ranked Offense Former HCs Mike Vrabel (former TEN HC) - 1st Interview complete Pete Carroll (former SEA HC) - Thursday, 9JAN Current OCs Drew Petzing (ARZ) - 1st Interview complete, #12 Ranked Offense Mike Kafka (NYG) - 1st Interview Thursday, 9JAN, #31 Ranked Offense Ben Johnson (DET) - 1st Virtual Interview Saturday, 10JAN, #1 Ranked Offense --------- Unavailable until after the team is eliminated from playoffs---------------- Joe Brady (BUF) - In playoffs, #2 Ranked Offense Todd Monken (BAL) - In playoffs, #3 Ranked Offense Kliff Kingsbury (WAS) - In playoffs, #5 Ranked Offense Arthur Smith (PIT) - In playoffs, #16 Ranked Offense Current DCs Aaron Glenn (DET) - 1st Virtual Interview Saturday, 10JAN, #7 Ranked Defense Anthony Weaver (MIA), #10 Ranked Defense --------- Unavailable until after the team is eliminated from playoffs---------------- Vance Joseph (DEN) - In playoffs, #3 Ranked Defense Brian Flores (MIN, former HC) - In playoffs, #5 Ranked Defense College HCs Matt Campbell (Iowa St 2016-Present) David Shaw (Stanford 2011-2022)

Is this the list so far? 1. Johnson 2. Vrabel 3. Monken 4. Flores 5. McCarthy 6. Petzing 7. Glenn 8. Shaw 9. Smith 10. Weaver 11. Brown 12. Kafka

It was 5-7 games wins depending on how you counted them. Just say it is the low end of 5, they are a 10-win team and 4-2 in the Division with very little difference outside of not having Flus as the bone-headed HC. Lost to SEA 6-3 Lost to DET 23-20 Lost to MIN 30-27(OT) Lost to GB 20-19 Lost to WAS 18-15 Should not have lost to NE, IND and this follows a season where they had 3 games like that and should've been a 10-win the previous season. So there are at least 8 wins in the last two years that were more than winnable, they were almost guaranteed and they still lost.

Two QBs in NFL history have thrown over 400 passing attempts while trailing with +10 TDs and fewer 5 INTs in a season. Tom Brady (2022) and Caleb Williams (2024). Caleb had the 2nd most plays while trailing for a QB in NFL history at 531, only trailing Lawrence (2021).

Depends, if you are always playing from behind, you are in more predictable situations (more passing). That is why Caleb ended up with the most passing attempts amongst rookies. If you look at most QB splits, they are worse when playing from behind. So if you are playing behind more, your numbers should be lower. Caleb was within 30 passing yards of Daniels on the season. So with an even playing field, Caleb will clear all the other rookies.

CAR has the 8th pick in the 1st (NYJ has the 7th pick). In the 2nd round, the teams with the same records rotate. First goes to last, every other team moves up one slot. So CAR picks 7th in the 2nd round, which is Pick 39. The Bears have the 10th pick in the first, and move up to the 9th pick in the 2nd, which is Pick 41. Before the Jets win, CAR was still picking 8th but were the lowest 5 win team, so in the 2nd, they would've fell to the last 5-win team slot at 42. So the Bears have 10-39-41-72.

Playing with a lead is so much different than playing from behind. Out of the 3 top rookie QBs, check out the disparity in passing attempts based on the score: Williams Attempts while leading: 98 Attempts while trailing: 410 Daniels Attempts while leading: 304 Attempts while trailing: 189 Nix Attempts while leading: 226 Attempts while trailing: 224 So he had OVER 200 fewer passing attempts than Daniels with the lead. That's like 5 games or 20 quarters of play. He also had twice as many attempts while trailing than either of them.

Based on the lack of a 4th rounder (used for Booker), the Bears have to nail their first 4 picks with 75+ picks between picks after pick #72. #10 #39 (CAR) #41 #72 -Following Picks will change, but currently: #147 #197 (PIT) #218 or #246 (CLE) #233 (CIN) Depending on the board, they may want to move back with one of their 2nds or the 3rd to pickup another pick. Examples: Moving from#41 to #48 would net a mid-4th Moving from #41 to #55 would net a late 3rd. Moving from #73 to #85 would net a mid-4th.

Yeah, finally. We not only beat them but hurt them in the playoffs. Going from playing TB vs PHI is a huge difference.

The Bears and Packers finished with the same DIV Record at 1-5. They were 10-1 out of the Division. That is crazy. They may be the biggest disparity between in and out of division games I can remember. So they were a blocked FG from finishing 0-6 in the Division, that is wild.

Final Stats: 351-562, 62.5%, 3541 Yds, 6.3 Y/A, 20 TD, 6 INT, 68 Sacks, 87.8 QB Rating, 46.5 QBR, Rushing: 81-489 Yds, 4030 Total Yards.

Bears pick 10th, Panthers will pick 7th, but as the worst 5-12 team, since they rotate picks, the Bears 2nd rounder will be one better than the Panthers. So #10, #41, and #42 (CAR)

3,541 Passing Yards, 20 TD, 489 rushing yards. So Caleb ended up with 4,030 total yards on the season. Not bad. The 20 TD to 6 INT was nice.

That's wild. The Bears played GB surprisingly well this year all things considered. They lost by a blocked FG, and if not for the Moore fumble, they would not have needed the GW Kick by Santos. However, I think that was a better way to go out as a walk off, stick it to GB, now they have to go to PHI in the WC Round, they could've had TB.

There is actually a realistic chance that all 4 of these teams could win, which would be wild. That would drop the Bears to the 5th pick. Tua is out, MIA is going to be miserable on the road in the cold with nothing to play for. Indy got lit up by Drew Lock and the Giants. LAC should resting starters, and CAR has looked solid over the last month. I would take any better pick, but 7 or better gives a very high chance at getting Graham, Carter, or Campbell.

I think we all expected a different season as a whole. I think he has improved, but that is really hard to see considering the chaos around him. The way the schedule played out also makes it challenging to compare early vs late. However, go back and just watch the Week 1 game against TEN and then any recent game. You can clearly tell he has improved. For the other QBs, I am not so sure any growth is visible. Daniels still has 1x 300-yd game (against Bears), and his signature win is a game against PHI where Kenny Pickett was at QB. Daniels only had 2 INTs in his first 10 starts and has 7 INTs in his last his last 6 games. Maye has been consistently mediocre all year. Outside of his scrambling, that is the only thing keeping him viable. Otherwise he is good for an INT per game. Nix? How about 6 INTs in his last 4 games. It is much easier when you are bum punching. People are too wrapped up with W-Ls. Nix won a game where he threw for 130 yards and 3 INTs. Daniels gets credit for a win where he had 2 passing attempts and 6 yards. Penix? Every stat is worse than the QB he replaced. Yards per game down, TDs down, INTs up, Rating down. He got to sit most of the year to average 212 passing yards, 0.5 TD and 1 INT a game. If you watched the last game, he did not look good at all. Daniels has received all the praise, even when he was doing nothing more than Williams or Nix, except that the Commanders were winning. It is so bad that he made the Pro Bowl over other QBs and was one of the highest vote getters, while Mayfield had over 700+ passing yards and 14+ Passing TDs. You would think that Daniels would be dominating, yet he has averaged only 8 yards per game passing more than Williams, and 6 of those came this last week when he had over 100 yards passing more than Williams. Daniels will easily win the ROY, but if you swapped records with Williams, he would be no more in the discussion than Williams is right now. It is record first, everything else second. Williams last 7 games have been an absolute gauntlet: SEA, DET, MIN, SF, DET, MIN, GB. No team has played a tougher schedule over this period, and it is not even close. I would love to see what Daniels and the Commanders would've done against that schedule.

It was a very competitive league, 8 teams had a chance to make the playoffs going into the last week of the regular season. I was very lucky this year. It almost always comes down to injuries and the waiver wire. I lost both of my QBs Prescott and Tua but was lucky enough to pick up Mayfield who ended up as a top 5 QB. That saved my season. Not having players on super late byes helps too. I only had 1 player with a bye after week 12. That helped a lot too.