adam

Yeah, I keep seeing good things about him, which may bump him into the late first though.

No who was he recruited by? Singletary?

Supposedly this chart was fake or super inaccurate. Drake Maye was one of the most accurate passers, not 15th.

Vildor got a game ball from SF. If Vildor just lets it hit the ground, the Lions probably win. How do you try to catch it, let it hit you in the face, then bounce off right to the WR you are supposed to be guarding? Vildor Vildoring. No team had lost in a Conference Championship with that big of a lead in the 2nd half. Lions are 1 of 1 now. Epic collapse, makes the Bears collapse in the regular season look tame.

Revisiting this. So in 2023, only 1 player in the top 13 in terms of cap hits didn't make the playoffs this year, Ryan Tannehill, who had a $36.6M cap hit (2nd in the NFL). The other 12 made it, including Mahomes at #1, Goff at #3, and Lamar at #13. So the thing about not being able to win without a QB on a rookie deal is false when 3 out of 4 finalists are in the top 13. Interestingly enough, Moore was 22nd in the NFL in terms of cap hit this season. Going into 2024, the Bears are looking amazing. Currently, their highest cap hit is Sweat who is 44th in the league, followed by Edmunds at #64, Jackson at #104 (likely cut), and Moore who is now #123. All the while, there will be 7 players over $40M, and Bakhtiari at $39.99M. Watson is at $63.97M, lmao, good luck Cleveland. Prescott is at $59.45M, and Mahomes is at $57.3M. Next year is going to be really telling for KC. KC basically has to cut a $20M player from their roster. Here are the 30M Men for 2024 (which does not include 2024 Free Agency): 2024 Cap Hit Rankings PLAYER POS CAP HIT 1 Deshaun Watson QB $63,977,000 - LMAO Cleveland Clowns CLE 2 Dak Prescott QB $59,455,000 DAL 3 Patrick Mahomes QB $57,358,269 KC 4 Kyler Murray QB $51,857,000 - That's basically $10M per foot ARI 5 Matthew Stafford QB $49,500,000 LAR 6 Daniel Jones QB $47,105,000 - This is what NFL purgatory looks like NYG 7 Josh Allen QB $47,056,281 BUF 8 David Bakhtiari LT $39,994,925 - $10M per snap GB 9 Khalil Mack OLB $38,517,500 - 1 of 4 Chargers with a cap hit over $32M - enjoy 7-10 LAC 10 Joey Bosa OLB $36,611,666 LAC 11 Derek Carr QB $35,700,000 - Buyer's remorse has set in. NO 12 Russell Wilson QB $35,400,000 - Does he still have his own office? DEN 13 Keenan Allen WR $34,717,500 - The highest paid WR in the NFL for cap hits? LAC 14 Aaron Donald DT $34,166,666 LAR 15 Mike Williams WR $32,460,000 - The 2nd highest paid WR in the NFL for cap hits? Chargering! LAC 16 Lamar Jackson QB $32,400,000 BAL 17 Jared Goff QB $31,650,064 DET 18 Trent Williams LT $31,524,638 SF 19 Tyreek Hill WR $31,323,750 MIA 20 Geno Smith QB $31,200,000 - he had a good season, but was it that good? SEA 21 T.J. Watt OLB $30,418,694 PIT

It seems like negative stats correlate well. Positive stats don't always correlate. Rarely, if ever, do bad players from college turn into great pros. However, a lot of great college QBs fail in the NFL.

Solid hire, can't be much worse than Tolbert was. I like the Moore connection.

Also, I love when random charts come out of nowhere. This one shows that if you are in the bottom left quadrant, you should be avoided as a QB (Hi Mitch!). Not a single guy from that group has done anything. To me the upper left and bottom right are a mixed bag, but there are a few names that seem like the outliers (Mahomes, Allen, Purdy, and Rattler?). The top 4 names are Rattler, Maye, Tua, and Mayfield.

Take it for what it's worth, but this guy has graded almost every throw of the top QBs in the draft. He comes away saying that Maye is the clearcut choice as the best QB, and it really isn't that close. He has individual pages that give his comps for each QB. He said Maye is a more aggressive Justin Herbert. Williams is a taller Kyler with a worse deep ball. Daniels is a much weaker Justin Fields, lol.

Where did Sam Darnold play in college? Hmmmm, interesting timing. and Purdy and the 2022 draft. He makes it before Pickett, Howell, Ridder, Zappe, Thompson, and Willis!

Grizz, for the 4th down calls, I don't know if the predictability matters that much in terms of catching a team by surprise to gain an advantage. I know Campbell is old school, and that is fine, but going for it on every 4th down is anything but old school lol. I was just saying you have to understand the game situation. That is totally different than passing 100% of the time on 3rd Down, that predictability will put the defense in a more favorable position. For the 4th Down calls, if you are within a 50 yard FG range with favorable conditions, and you are down 3 or less, you take the points. Beyond 50 yards, fine. Inside the 10, fine. The first time he did it, I had no issues, they were up and trying to put the game away. Then down 3 and he does it again? Someone made a good analogy about it. He was a gambler who was up big at the table playing with the house's money the first time, so he could bet big, but then later, he had to borrow money to make the bet, and lost again. What is interesting to me. Why doesn't Detroit treat 2-pt conversions the same way? They can double their points on that play, and it is only 2 yards?

They also played a 4th place schedule last year, a 2nd place schedule this year, and now get a 1st place schedule next year. To me, it's like 3 tiers of schedules: 1st place, 2nd/3rd place, and 4th place. This same Detroit team is going to lose at least 2 more next year just by the schedule difficulty alone. Now if the OC was that big of a bump for their offense, then they may lose 3-4 more than they did this year. So from 12-5 to as low as 9-8 or 8-9.

I was going off the full year assessment so I didn't have recency bias because he did end the year strong, same with Stevenson. However, the first quarter of the season was pretty bad. If he continues to play at or above the level he did in the last half, then we are good to go.

Exactly, lol. That is over 10 spots on the 53-man that can be upgraded from the bottom up.

He is everywhere right now. NFL Network, ESPN, Fox, etc. They have made Campbell out to be the second coming. I am just saying he is getting a lot of praise for taking a very good roster to the NFCC. A lot of coaches would be able to have similar results with that roster and Ben Johnson at OC. The history of a team beyond 5 years is irrelevant to the current team's performance. I always find that funny when they say a team has gone XX long either doing something or not doing something. Who cares? Honestly, what does the 1978 Lions have to do with the 2023 Lions? Do any of those previous teams impact the outcome of any play or game in the 2023 season? The experience is definitely important, but that was on the coaches. If it was a low scoring game, or if there was more time left, sure go for it, but not down 3 with 4 minutes left in a high scoring game.

OK, a Lord Poles tattoo!

Good point. His slow start really didn't help because it made those first 4 games even worse.

Basically, but most of that was to Edmunds. Edwards really equals it out. Btw, they need to extend Edwards now.

Flus is fine for a CEO type head coach. I would say the play callers on both sides of the ball are more important than the HC. Baltimore didn't win or lose because of Harbaugh. For a team like KC, Reid is important because he is the playcaller on the offense. Same for Shanahan. It's not because they are good HCs. That's also why they have prominent DCs in Spags and Wilks. Flus is actually above average as a Defensive play caller. Does he get a little passive with soft zone at times, sure, but maybe it's because he knows Jackson is no longer EJack on there. The Bears need to get the Offensive Playcaller pipeline stocked. The only issue with a defensive HC or CEO type HC is you will lose your primary offensive play caller every few years (see Baltimore, watch Detroit).

Yeah, if you think about it, the last 4 teams, they all had those type of TEs, Kittle, LaPorta, Andrews, and Taylor Swift's boyfriend. If Poles can get 6 picks in the top 50, you would have to get a King Poles tattoo!

The combine is going to be critical, with the 1v1 interviews and the measurables. If he comes in under 6'1", that is going to be a huge red flag. If I am him, I am getting botox injections on the top of my head a few days prior.

The Detroit loss shows coaching matters. SF scored 27 unanswered pts in the 2nd half. You want to talk about epic collapses, that one was one for the ages. Both sides of the ball turtled. Why are they throwing the ball to Reynolds in key situations when you have LaPorta, St. Brown, and Gibbs? Why is Vildor asked to cover Aiyuk that deep without a Safety over the top? Why did Campbell go for it on 4th and 3 down only 3 pts when a FG ties the game? I didn't mind the earlier one as you had a lead, but when you are trailing by 3 or less, you kick the FG. Especially with the time left on the clock. If you look at that roster, Holmes did a great job, how hard is it to have a winning record with that squad? I really feel like Campbell is a little overrated, and everyone likes him because he is like that old school high school football coach that is always hooting and hollering.

I think Edmunds is fine, and still young enough to get better. However, I think Poles overpaid for him, which may not matter in the long run, but we don't know if there were other players not signed because of a couple of million. Edmunds started out slow and improved as the season wore on. I just thought his size in the middle would clog up more throwing lanes than it did. I guess I had Urlacher memories stuck in there.

Monty's 2-yard loss run under a minute basically sealed the loss. Terrible call and run lol.

If you are Poles, don't you take in all the information? Fields gets compared to Lamar more than any other QB, and rightfully so. The issue I see is like in hockey, and probably most pro sports, the playoffs are at an entirely different game than the regular season. Ask Dan Campbell, you can't just blindly go for every 4th down because you trust your guys. Lamar was supposed to be the MVP. He was shutdown for basically 58 minutes, then got 100+ garbage time yards that didn't even matter, but they look good on his stat sheet. He is primarily a running QB, while Mahomes is mobile and can run if needed, but that is normally his last option. My concern with Williams is, did he do enough in the system? He did a ton of hero ball, and in some cases, too much. I am thinking this may bring Maye back into the discussion. He plays within the system, has explosive plays, can play offscript, and runs when he needs to. Plus he is bigger, and is not going to get crushed every time he is hit. I honestly think there is a 3-headed die. One is Fields, Lamar clone without the 4th quarter prowess, two is Williams who could be a Mahomes clone or taller Kyler Murray, or three is Maye, who could end up between a Josh Allen and Justin Herbert.