adam

It's hard not to be excited if the Bears go this route. Even if Justin doesn't work out, the team would be stacked and have multiple 1sts and 2nds in 2025.

Here is one way to look at it. Last year Poles said he had to be blown away by a prospect to keep the pick. He wasn't blown away by Stroud or Young. However, I bet he was blown away by Williams last year. Since then, Williams has lost some of his luster. Even then, he was so far ahead of the next guy that he is still the #1 pick, but he is no longer the second coming.

Oh yes, plus Scales and Marcedes Lewis are FAs. I assume bring Scales (36) back and with Cairo (32) would be the two oldest I believe.

I am working on doing all the other positions in the top 10 to see how they end up. It may just correlate the same way, which would ultimately mean the bad teams rarely become good in a timeframe where a top 10 pick is still on their team.

Technically they are still on the team until the league year ends and the new league year begins on March 13th. They have the two day tampering window (whatever that is for) before the league year officially starts that begins on March 11th. So more than likely, if the Bears are going to extend any of their own players, it will happen before March 11th.

$67M in cap space now (3rd most) > $55M effective cap (4th most). Here we go!

He was the last of the 2016 draft class. Jackson is expected to be released, he would be the last of the 2017 draft class. 2018 is already gone (Roquan), and 2019 is gone (Monty). Kmet and Johnson (if signed) would be the 2020 class.

I would say "projected to be better than" as he hasn't taken an NFL snap yet. The projections are very positive and he can still be a bust but odds are he will be at least good to really good. Defenses don't fear the Bears offense. Actually, you can tell the defenses dictate what the offense does when it should be the other way around. Outside of Justin's scrambling ability when they lose contain, Moore was the only threat.

Wow, I knew the officials were bad as we have experienced a ton of missed or phantom calls, but some of those holds were so blatantly obvious AND impacted the play. I always hated the calls away from or behind the play that had no bearing on the outcome of the play, but these are right there. In Week 18, the Packers were holding like crazy, yet never got called for it. So the lesson is keep holding or pay the refs.

Yeah, Shanahan dorked up the OT coin flip. It all comes down to the odds. If you get the ball first, you have a 0% chance to win on your drive. However, if you defer, there is basically a 33% chance the other team will score a TD, 33% chance they kick a FG, and a 33% chance they don't score. So unless they go for 2 and get 8 pts, you technically have a chance to win on your first offensive drive regardless of what the other team did.

Yeah, he is more Russ and Kyler than Mahomes. Some analysts have even said his quick release looks a lot like Rodgers. So he is basically Russell Rodgers or Aaron Murray.

I know there are some additional differences in the different routes they can go, but ultimately for 2025-2026, it seems like it comes down to essentially something like this: Plan A: Williams + $52M for: $24M Edge (FA) + $20M DT (FA) + $8M TE2/WR3 (FA) Plan B: Fields + 2024 1st + 2025 1st + 2026 2nd Both plans roughly have a $62M cap hit with 4 roster spots filled. * Assumption is 1st Round 2024 (#9) used on WR2, 2nd Round 2024 used on Center for both plans (Fields trade or trade down from #1), negating each other. The cost controlled vet like Moore would cancel out with a FA in Plan A as well (cap wise).

Here is the link: https://theathletic.com/5270481/2024/02/13/nfl-draft-2024-prospect-rankings-top-100/ His current top 10: 1. Caleb Williams 2. Marvin Harrison Jr. 3. Malik Nabers 4. Drake Maye 5. Brock Bowers 6. Joe Alt 7. Rome Odunze 8. Jayden Daniels 9. Olu Fashanu 10. Terrion Arnold

I will do some research tonight and break it down by position since 2000 using the top 10 picks (since we have 2).

They were 9-8 this year. I don't know. It is just odd to me that all these highly drafted WRs have achieved relatively nothing compared to other position groups. What I am wondering is if it is a value thing. Meaning, if you take a WR in the top 10, you are bypassing another position group that is more expensive, so you are getting less value out of that position. Basically WRs are overrated and overpaid.

OK, so I saw a graphic about this and had to look into it. Apparently, since 2000, there has only been a single Super Bowl victory that had a top 10 WR on the roster who was drafted by the team he played for in the Super Bowl. That is Mike Evans. There have been 33 picks in the top 10 used for a WR since 2000. It is ugly. Here are those 33 WRs, sorted by # of career receptions: 1 Larry Fitzgerald - Super Bowl loss (Kurt Warner) 2 Andre Johnson 3 Julio Jones - Super Bowl loss (28-3 thanks Shanny) 4 Mike Evans - Super Bowl win (Tom Brady) 5 Calvin Johnson 6 A.J. Green 7 Amari Cooper 8 Michael Crabtree 9 Plaxico Burress - played on winning team for NYG 10 Ted Ginn Jr. - 2x Super Bowl losses (w/ SF and CAR) 11 Roy Williams - Lions LOL! 12 Sammy Watkins - played on winning team for KC 13 Braylon Edwards 14 Travis Taylor 15 Mike Williams 16 Koren Robinson 17 Peter Warrick 18 Corey Davis 19 Ja'Marr Chase - Super Bowl loss 20 Jaylen Waddle 21 Tavon Austin 22 DeVonta Smith - Super Bowl loss 23 Darrius Heyward-Bey 24 Reggie Williams 25 Garrett Wilson 26 Drake London 27 David Terrell - Bear Down! 28 Mike Williams - Lions LOL! 29 Justin Blackmon 30 Troy Williamson 31 John Ross 32 Charles Rogers - Lions LOL! 33 Kevin White - Bear Down! So 5 Super Bowl appearance by 33 players, and a 1-4 record in the Super Bowl in the last quarter century. This does not look good at all. Also, only Jones, Chase, and Smith played in a Super Bowl with a QB drafted by the team. So 3 Super Bowl appearances, zero wins, by 33 players who were drafted in the top 10 who played with a QB drafted by the team. I know it seems convoluted, but if the Bears roll with Fields and draft MHJ or draft Williams and Odunze at 9, the odds of success are extremely low. This is a thing, right? Like that is too one-sided to not be a thing.

Oh I know, I just think it is silly to put a 9-8 team in the top 10 when there were 12 double-digit win teams.

That would be crazy, because Pitts is basically a 1st round pick. So to get Pitts + a 2nd would be insane. I would drive Fields to Atlanta myself.

Less on Purdy, you are correct. However, if you take the ball first in that situation, and you have 4th and 4 from the 9, you have to go for it. Also, once they had 2nd and 4 from the 9, they had 3 downs to get 4 yards and turtled after 2 plays. That 3rd Down pass play call was horrendous. If you go back to their final drive in the 4th. They had 2nd and 5 from the 35 and couldn't get 5 yards in two plays. Like the game is on the line, if they get that first down, they can milk the clock and win it in regulation. Instead they kick a FG and give Mahomes way too much time. I felt like in both instances, they needed to plan for 4 downs of use. Then after you kick a FG the first time, you have to go for it the 2nd time. Two times with 4th and 5 or less and you kick 2x FGs.

and we haven't had anyone do that since Cutler. Mitch rarely did it, every time we were down and we were getting the ball back with 2 minutes left, we almost already knew the outcome. A loss. I had the same feeling with Fields. He was pretty good in the 3rd quarter, but once crunch time came, he fell off the map.

What is wild about this is Purdy had the best 4th Quarter stats: 123.8 QB Rating, 10 TD, 3 INT, 10.3 Y/A in the regular season while Mahomes struggled with a 71.7 QB Rating, 4 TD, 3 INT, 5.4 Y/A. Super wild.

Houston is 5th, Green Bay is 6th. Come on, that is ridiculous.