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Everything posted by adam
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These seem like the most likely guys to make the 53-man roster: Brenden Bates, TE (still need a TE3) Keith Randolph, DT (still need another DT) Jamree Kromah, DE (could replace Robinson who has been ineffective so far) Theo Benedet, OL (would be a back end replacement for someone like Borom ($3.1M cap savings))
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I am always surprised how some of these guys don't get drafted. 10 sacks on a top 25 team with a high RAS. What is not to like?
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Yeah Getsy to Waldron is a significant improvement as well, I forgot all about Getsy.
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That would be insane. There were only 4 teams to have a top 10 offense and defense last year, they finished 1, 2, 4, 5 in overall DVOA. Their average W/L was 12-5. Two of them played in the SB, and 3 of 4 played in the Conference Finals. So there is heavy correlation between top 10 DVOA and overall outcomes. BAL - 1 / 4 / 1 SF - 2 / 1 / 4 DAL - 4 / 9 / 5 KC - 5 / 8 / 7 This is how the Bears finished, but the last 12 weeks they were a top 5 defense: CHI - 22 / 22 / 17
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The Bears went from Fields, Foreman, Mooney, St. Brown, Tonyan, Whitehair, and Patrick to Williams, Swift, Allen, Odunze, Everett, Bates, and Shelton in one offseason. It is hard to see this not being a top 12 offense. According to DVOA, the Bears had the 22nd best offense last year. 10 spots seems like a huge leap, but when you improve in every position group, 10 spots seems possible. If the team went 7-11 with 3 terrible losses, 10 wins seems like the floor as they should've had 10 last season. Playing the last place schedule, there are not many dominant teams on their schedule.
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+1 yard in Net punting = 7 pts. Gill was dead last. Just say Taylor add 2 yds onto that number. That equates to 14 pts on the season, which would've probably added 2 wins to the team last year. Also, some are speculating that he could also be the kickoff guy if he can kick like he punts, pinning teams deep in their own zone. So we will have to see how it plays out. If he is a top 5 punter for the next decade, great pick. If he is middle of the road or worse, probably a bad pick because most of the top 10 punters are UDFAs right now.
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We actually did pretty good. Our consensus draft got 5 correct, and 8 of 10 of the picks in the top 10. Williams, Daniels, Maye, Harrison, and Nabers (5/10 correct) Alt, Odunze and McCarthy in top 10 (8/10 in the top 10) Turner and Bowers not in top 10 Latham and Penix in top 10
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They would be awesome if Fields plays that much, but Wilson is not terrible. He would have to have a few bad games in a row before they replace him.
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The 5th they got back was the one they used for Bates. So technically they now have traded a 2025 4th for Ryan Bates. With the potential of 3x 6ths, I can see them using one or two of them to move up in the 4th or 5th round (or to the back of the previous round).
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I just like the fact that Williams was reaching out to the other draft picks right after they were selected.
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He had more punting yards then the Iowa offense had yards last year, lol. He has some unique technique to ensure coffin corner punts pop back to the coverage team and not roll into the end zone. He is top 10 in pretty much every punting category all-time for college football. He led the nation in 2023 in punts, punt yards, and was 3rd in Average.
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I have read a few articles that said he is athletic enough to slide inside. So he could compete with Jones at LT or Davis at G. Since Jenkins can play both sides. They could slide Jenkins to RG and have Amegadjie play LG (if he is better on the left). So now they have options.
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Yeah he is still a work in progress, look at his tape from the Senior Bowl and what he did to Jordan Morgan (GBs new G) in the 1v1 drills. That game was in September, and he constantly improved throughout the year. In that game he had 1.5 TFL and 0.5 sacks.
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Absolutely, most mocks and big boards had him in the top 100. Dane Brugler had Booker at #78 in The Beast. So to get him for a future 4th, which may end up being in the 120s range, is a great value.
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He could've swapped the picks and they would've been just as good. Booker probably should've went in the 4th, but the assumption was Taylor would not have lasted into the 5th.
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In the 2025 draft, with 3 picks in the first two rounds, it seems like DL and OL will be the targets. That would add 3x blue chippers to the trenches.
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With the draft picks locked in for 2024, here is the before and after by position: Offense: QB - [Fields > Williams*] RB - [Foreman > Swift*] WR - [Mooney > Allen*] / [St. Brown > Odunze*] / [Taylor > Pettis] TE - [Tonyan > Everett*] IOL - [Patrick > Shelton*] / [Whitehair > Bates*] / [Feeney > Curhan*] / [X > Amegadjie] Defense: DE - [Green > Martin*] / [Ngakoue > Booker*] LB - [Cole > Ogbongbemiga*] DB - [Blackwell > Owens*] FS - [Jackson > Byard*] P - [Gill > Taylor*] Holes remaining: DT - [Jones > X] TE - [Lewis > X] It seems like Poles literally took every underperforming player and got rid of them this offseason, and replaced them with an instant upgrade. The roster really only needs a rotational DT/3T and TE3. There are probably a couple of end of the 53-man juggling, but that would be at DT4/5 and DE4/5. After that, the roster looks really solid. QB - Williams, Bagent, Rypien - both backups with starting experience RB - Swift, Herbert, Johnson, Homer, Blasingame - 2 RBs with starting experience TE - Kmet, Everett, Vet FA - TE1A and TE1B WR - Moore, Allen, Odunze, Scott, Jones, Pettis - Arguably WR1A, 1B, and 1C OT - Wright, Jones, Amegadjie, Borom - 4 out of 5 OL subs have started games OG - Jenkins, Davis, Curhan, Carter, Pryor - If they go with best 5, there is a chance Davis gets cut OC - Shelton, Bates DT - Billings, Dexter, Pickens, Cowart, Vet FA - Still could use a player or two to upgrade DT4/5 DE - Sweat, Booker or Walker, Martin, Kareem, Robinson - One vet away from being solid at DE4 LB - Edmunds, Edwards, Sanborn, Sewell, Ogbongbemiga, Hardy - Solid group CB - Johnson, Stevenson, Gordon, Smith, Jones, Stroman - CB6 would be only change S - Brisker, Byard, Owens, Hicks, Johnson - S4/5 would be only change here P - Taylor - Pro Bowl Punter K - Santos - Pro Bowl Kicker PS - Scales Starters in bold. My projection is adding a vet DT, DE, and TE3, with possibly a new backup S to compete with Hicks/Johnson.
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Booker was a top 100 player, so getting him for next year's pick in the 120s is good value.
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Now all the Bears need is a rotational DT to replace Justin Jones and this roster is set.
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Next year's 4th, so a possible pick in the 120s for 144. Booker was a top 100 player, so there is value there.
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A trade for an early 5th rounder. They got their guy who some expected to go at #122, at #144 so depending on the trade value, it seems like a great pick. It cost next year's 4th. So assuming they are a fringe playoff team, that pick is in the 120s for 144.
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Bears get Booker
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Potentially the last pick for the Bears in this draft. Will be an upgrade over Gill but seems like a luxury pick when you had your choice of Edge or Center.
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However he will be an upgrade over Gill.
