Consensus Top 7

[adam]

Ok, if you guys don't mind, please post how you believe the top 7 picks will fall out in the draft:

 

1. CLE

2. NYG

3. IND

4. CLE

5. DEN

6. NYJ

7. TB

 

I used the following mock draft database to come up with some consensus top 6 picks and their probability.

 

(http://www.letsgoredskins.com/MockDraft.htm)

 

Using the information from mocks from 10JAN until now, I came up with 660 data points (6x 110 mocks).

 

Here are the percentages by slot for the top 6:

 

1. Darnold (52.7%)

2. Rosen (50%)

3. Chubb (60%)

4. Fitzpatrick (41.8%)

5. Mayfield (23.6%)

6. Allen (20.9%)

 

This is the overall percentage on being selected in the top 6:

 

1. Rosen 96.4%

2. Darnold 94.5%

3. Barkley 89.1%

--------------------

4. Chubb 76.4%

5. Mayfield 61.8%

6. Fitzpatrick 58.2%

7. Allen 53.6%

-----------------

8. Nelson 30%

9. Jackson 10%

10. Smith 5.5%

 

So for me, I have to say the top 3 are absolute givens and should be all at 100%, and I assume these numbers will creep up as we get closer to the draft.

 

Just for simplicity's sake, the top 7 players will not be available to the Bears at #8:

 

1. Rosen

2. Darnold

3. Barkley

4. Chubb

5. Mayfield

6. Fitzpatrick

7. Allen

 

To me, this sets up pretty good for the Bears, either 4x QB's go and Barkley, leaving us with one of Chubb, Fitzpatrick, or Nelson, or 1 of the QB's is not selected and sitting there when we pick (for a trade down).

 

If we miss out on those three, and keep the pick, what is left?

 

Brown, OL

Williams, OL

Jackson, CB

Smith, LB

Edmunds, LB

Ridley, WR

Sutton, WR

[bowlingtwig]

Ok, if you guys don't mind, please post how you believe the top 7 picks will fall out in the draft:

 

1. CLE

2. NYG

3. IND

4. CLE

5. DEN

6. NYJ

7. TB

 

I used the following mock draft database to come up with some consensus top 6 picks and their probability.

 

(http://www.letsgoredskins.com/MockDraft.htm)

 

Using the information from mocks from 10JAN until now, I came up with 660 data points (6x 110 mocks).

 

Here are the percentages by slot for the top 6:

 

1. Darnold (52.7%)

2. Rosen (50%)

3. Chubb (60%)

4. Fitzpatrick (41.8%)

5. Mayfield (23.6%)

6. Allen (20.9%)

 

This is the overall percentage on being selected in the top 6:

 

1. Rosen 96.4%

2. Darnold 94.5%

3. Barkley 89.1%

--------------------

4. Chubb 76.4%

5. Mayfield 61.8%

6. Fitzpatrick 58.2%

7. Allen 53.6%

-----------------

8. Nelson 30%

9. Jackson 10%

10. Smith 5.5%

 

So for me, I have to say the top 3 are absolute givens and should be all at 100%, and I assume these numbers will creep up as we get closer to the draft.

 

Just for simplicity's sake, the top 7 players will not be available to the Bears at #8:

 

1. Rosen

2. Darnold

3. Barkley

4. Chubb

5. Mayfield

6. Fitzpatrick

7. Allen

 

To me, this sets up pretty good for the Bears, either 4x QB's go and Barkley, leaving us with one of Chubb, Fitzpatrick, or Nelson, or 1 of the QB's is not selected and sitting there when we pick (for a trade down).

 

If we miss out on those three, and keep the pick, what is left?

 

Brown, OL

Williams, OL

Jackson, CB

Smith, LB

Edmunds, LB

Ridley, WR

Sutton, WR

If that's the consensus I'd love it. For us to grab Nelson would be perfect if 1 of the QBs fall id look too trade back into the 15-20 range and grab Ridley

[BearFan PHX]

If that's the consensus I'd love it. For us to grab Nelson would be perfect if 1 of the QBs fall id look too trade back into the 15-20 range and grab Ridley

 

yup

 

Then again if you REALLY believe in Ridley, you take him at 8 too, and if you dont, then hes no bargain at 15?

[bowlingtwig]

yup

 

Then again if you REALLY believe in Ridley, you take him at 8 too, and if you dont, then hes no bargain at 15?

I have no problem taking him at 8 but so many believe he will be around near 20 so if I can trade back and still get him and pick up an extra pick I'm over the moon

[ASHKUM BEAR]

yup

 

Then again if you REALLY believe in Ridley, you take him at 8 too, and if you dont, then hes no bargain at 15?

What sucks about Ridley is his age. He will be an old man if he makes it to his second contract. Pace has shown he doesn't put age into effect since he has drafted a handful of older players.

Calvin Ridley - born Dec 20, 1994. 23 years old and will be 24 during next season. Meaning if we draft and keep him, he will be 29 starting a new contract leaving the 6-7 year contract extension up for debate. Where as if we drafted Juju Shuster last year, he will be 20 next season, with a year of NFL experience.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Where does Shaqon Barkley RB fit in? He was considered one of the top 3-4 a month ago.

[BearFan PHX]

What sucks about Ridley is his age. He will be an old man if he makes it to his second contract. Pace has shown he doesn't put age into effect since he has drafted a handful of older players.

Calvin Ridley - born Dec 20, 1994. 23 years old and will be 24 during next season. Meaning if we draft and keep him, he will be 29 starting a new contract leaving the 6-7 year contract extension up for debate. Where as if we drafted Juju Shuster last year, he will be 20 next season, with a year of NFL experience.

 

I didnt know that! Also Ridley is thought by some to be too thin and not muscular enough to post up on west coast routes and take punishment.

 

But who knows which WR Pace may or may not fancy.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

I didnt know that! Also Ridley is thought by some to be too thin and not muscular enough to post up on west coast routes and take punishment.

 

But who knows which WR Pace may or may not fancy.

Hard to say, but this draft is deep with a variety of choices. I would still like to see 2 get drafted since the top FA talent dried up before it even started.

[Stinger226]

Hard to say, but this draft is deep with a variety of choices. I would still like to see 2 get drafted since the top FA talent dried up before it even started.

There is only one off the market right now,Landry, the next may make it to F Agency. Robinson and Watkins. Watkins has a good chance of doing that with a number of players LA will want to protect. I wi like Watkins and Wilson, with one draft pick. Bring back Meredith and we're stuck with White for now.

[AZ54]

Ok, if you guys don't mind, please post how you believe the top 7 picks will fall out in the draft:

 

1. CLE

2. NYG

3. IND

4. CLE

5. DEN

6. NYJ

7. TB

 

I used the following mock draft database to come up with some consensus top 6 picks and their probability.

 

(http://www.letsgoredskins.com/MockDraft.htm)

 

Using the information from mocks from 10JAN until now, I came up with 660 data points (6x 110 mocks).

 

Here are the percentages by slot for the top 6:

 

1. Darnold (52.7%)

2. Rosen (50%)

3. Chubb (60%)

4. Fitzpatrick (41.8%)

5. Mayfield (23.6%)

6. Allen (20.9%)

 

This is the overall percentage on being selected in the top 6:

 

1. Rosen 96.4%

2. Darnold 94.5%

3. Barkley 89.1%

--------------------

4. Chubb 76.4%

5. Mayfield 61.8%

6. Fitzpatrick 58.2%

7. Allen 53.6%

-----------------

8. Nelson 30%

9. Jackson 10%

10. Smith 5.5%

 

So for me, I have to say the top 3 are absolute givens and should be all at 100%, and I assume these numbers will creep up as we get closer to the draft.

 

Just for simplicity's sake, the top 7 players will not be available to the Bears at #8:

 

1. Rosen

2. Darnold

3. Barkley

4. Chubb

5. Mayfield

6. Fitzpatrick

7. Allen

 

To me, this sets up pretty good for the Bears, either 4x QB's go and Barkley, leaving us with one of Chubb, Fitzpatrick, or Nelson, or 1 of the QB's is not selected and sitting there when we pick (for a trade down).

 

If we miss out on those three, and keep the pick, what is left?

 

Brown, OL

Williams, OL

Jackson, CB

Smith, LB

Edmunds, LB

Ridley, WR

Sutton, WR

 

 

I think the picks go:

 

CLE Darnold (GM was hired to draft their QB and can't bypass the first chance at doing so, not even to take one at #4)

 

NYG Rosen (I think Eli is nearly done even if they won't say it)

 

IND Chubb

 

CLE Saquon Barkley (no better friend for a rookie QB)

 

DEN Josh Allen (Elway has to get a QB but I'm not sure Allen is it, I wouldn't be surprised if he trades up to take Rosen.

If he gets Cousins then we'll see Nelson go here)

 

JETS Baker Mayfield

 

TB Marcus Davenport (there has to be one surprise ahead of us and pass rushing talent always moves up late)

 

CHI Quenton Nelson with Tremaine Edmunds as option #2

 

 

...and once again I don't see a safety, Fitzpatrick, going top 5, nor top 7.

 

 

 

[bowlingtwig]

I think the picks go:

 

CLE Darnold (GM was hired to draft their QB and can't bypass the first chance at doing so, not even to take one at #4)

 

NYG Rosen (I think Eli is nearly done even if they won't say it)

 

IND Chubb

 

CLE Saquon Barkley (no better friend for a rookie QB)

 

DEN Josh Allen (Elway has to get a QB but I'm not sure Allen is it, I wouldn't be surprised if he trades up to take Rosen.

If he gets Cousins then we'll see Nelson go here)

 

JETS Baker Mayfield

 

TB Marcus Davenport (there has to be one surprise ahead of us and pass rushing talent always moves up late)

 

CHI Quenton Nelson with Tremaine Edmunds as option #2

 

 

...and once again I don't see a safety, Fitzpatrick, going top 5, nor top 7.

You can probably forget about the idea of cousins to Denver. Denver had very little cap room

[jason]

Cleveland would be smarter to go Saquon Barkley first. There will be a chance to get a star QB at #4 no matter what happens, but Barkley is not guaranteed.

 

CLE- Barkley

NYG- Rosen

IND- Chubb

CLE- Darnold

DEN- Nelson

NYJ- Mayfield

TB- Fitzpatrick

CHI- Edmunds

 

[AZ54]

Cleveland would be smarter to go Saquon Barkley first. There will be a chance to get a star QB at #4 no matter what happens, but Barkley is not guaranteed.

 

CLE- Barkley

NYG- Rosen

IND- Chubb

CLE- Darnold

DEN- Nelson

NYJ- Mayfield

TB- Fitzpatrick

CHI- Edmunds

 

Of course this was the hot topic in the owner's quest to find a new GM. It is the most important position in the NFL.

I've seen some people say that, or at least put in some mocks, Cleveland can just grab whoever is left at #4. There is negligible difference between #1 and #4. I think that's wrong and given what they've allowed to happen with their high picks the last two seasons they should absolutely take who they believe is the best QB prospect there and leave nothing to chance. Nor is there any other player who is a must have like they tried to do last year drafting Garrett first and then working to move up for Trubisky.

 

Grab best QB prospect and then one of Barkley, Chubb, or Nelson and they had a very good draft.

 

From our viewpoint (not needing a QB) they all have question marks that somewhat level the playing field. One of them is Rosen's stated desire not to play in Cleveland. That just adds to the other questions I have about him and his attitude. If he ended up in Cleveland at #4 that would be a complete PR disaster. They must avoid that scenario at all costs.

 

Josh Allen has been very inconsistent and inaccurate. Yet at the Senior Bowl he improved during the week quite a bit. Mayfield? Darnold had numerous questionable decisions this past season but he's still the prospect I like the most among this group. Among these 3 I can only see them taking Allen or Darnold.

 

 

[Mongo3451]

Cleveland would be smarter to go Saquon Barkley first. There will be a chance to get a star QB at #4 no matter what happens, but Barkley is not guaranteed.

 

CLE- Barkley

NYG- Rosen

IND- Chubb

CLE- Darnold

DEN- Nelson

NYJ- Mayfield

TB- Fitzpatrick

CHI- Edmunds

I agree with this because of the Colts. If they don't draft Barkley at 3, they are nuts. Nothing protects Luck like a running game. There currant starter is Frank Gore at 34 years old.

[AZ54]

I agree with this because of the Colts. If they don't draft Barkley at 3, they are nuts. Nothing protects Luck like a running game. There currant starter is Frank Gore at 34 years old.

 

If Cleveland drafts #1 Darnold, then at #4 say they trade back with AZ at #15 picking up (#15 + #47 + AZ 1st Rd next year) so Arizona can draft Allen.

 

Cleveland ends the first two rounds of the draft with Darnold #1, Ridley WR #15, Rankin OT #33, Leighton Vanderesche LB #35, Sony Michel RB #47, Kevin Tolliver CB #64.

 

In 2019 they draft again with two 1st Rd picks.

 

I don't think they'll miss Barkley that much.

 

[Mongo3451]

If Cleveland drafts #1 Darnold, then at #4 say they trade back with AZ at #15 picking up (#15 + #47 + AZ 1st Rd next year) so Arizona can draft Allen.

 

Cleveland ends the first two rounds of the draft with Darnold #1, Ridley WR #15, Rankin OT #33, Leighton Vanderesche LB #35, Sony Michel RB #47, Kevin Tolliver CB #64.

 

In 2019 they draft again with two 1st Rd picks.

 

I don't think they'll miss Barkley that much.

First mistake is Darnold. I'm taking Rosen for QB.

[Mongo3451]

If Cleveland drafts #1 Darnold, then at #4 say they trade back with AZ at #15 picking up (#15 + #47 + AZ 1st Rd next year) so Arizona can draft Allen.

 

Cleveland ends the first two rounds of the draft with Darnold #1, Ridley WR #15, Rankin OT #33, Leighton Vanderesche LB #35, Sony Michel RB #47, Kevin Tolliver CB #64.

 

In 2019 they draft again with two 1st Rd picks.

 

I don't think they'll miss Barkley that much.

Also, what do you think about them trading the 1 and taking Barkley, Chubb, Nelson and QB?

[BearFan PHX]

Also, what do you think about them trading the 1 and taking Barkley, Chubb, Nelson and QB?

 

Can you imagine the bears landing 4 players of that caliber? wow.

[jason]

Of course this was the hot topic in the owner's quest to find a new GM. It is the most important position in the NFL.

I've seen some people say that, or at least put in some mocks, Cleveland can just grab whoever is left at #4. There is negligible difference between #1 and #4. I think that's wrong and given what they've allowed to happen with their high picks the last two seasons they should absolutely take who they believe is the best QB prospect there and leave nothing to chance. Nor is there any other player who is a must have like they tried to do last year drafting Garrett first and then working to move up for Trubisky.

 

Grab best QB prospect and then one of Barkley, Chubb, or Nelson and they had a very good draft.

 

From our viewpoint (not needing a QB) they all have question marks that somewhat level the playing field. One of them is Rosen's stated desire not to play in Cleveland. That just adds to the other questions I have about him and his attitude. If he ended up in Cleveland at #4 that would be a complete PR disaster. They must avoid that scenario at all costs.

 

Josh Allen has been very inconsistent and inaccurate. Yet at the Senior Bowl he improved during the week quite a bit. Mayfield? Darnold had numerous questionable decisions this past season but he's still the prospect I like the most among this group. Among these 3 I can only see them taking Allen or Darnold.

 

The bolded is a good point. Assuming, however, Barkley is gone to Indy (makes complete sense)...

 

Barkley + QB --or-- QB + Chubb/Nelson

 

If I were Cleveland, I still think Barkley + QB makes a bigger splash and reinvigorates the fanbase.

[AZ54]

First mistake is Darnold. I'm taking Rosen for QB.

 

I never liked Rosen that much when I watched his games live the last couple years. I see the NFL arm talent but in some ways he reminded me of Cutler locked in on receivers. On a positive note he doesn't have the INTs to go along with that.

 

Darnold has more ability to make plays out of nothing IMO but he needs to learn to reign that in a bit. He also is better built to handle the rigors of the position.

 

Question marks abound on all 4 of the top QBs and scheme fit will be critical for teams.