2 Trade Scenarios( Which Is More Realistic?)

[lemonej]

1 Az. gives up 15 ,47 and 79 for Bears 8 and 115

2 Buffalo gives up 12 and 22 and 65 for Bears 8 and 105 

These two scenarios are based on Baker Mayfield being these two teams target and still on the board at 8.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

I don't see any scenario that Buffalo gives us scenario 2, but if they would, I would be all over it.  

[lemonej]

So you believe the Arizona trade is more realistic?

[DABEARSDABOMB]

I presume the Buffalo chart is a pretty high trade value that they are giving up vs. what we are giving back (based upon the old Jimmy Johnson draft pick value chart).  For the AZ one, while I would do it, I would probably add a future pick on top of that.  I'm historically a huge proponent of trading down.  

[AZ54]

Without even looking at the point value I'd say the Bills trade is more realistic because it's more likely to happen.  Arizona has at least put together something of a QB room, whether or not Bradford can make it through the full year is another question.   Buffalo is working every which way to get into the top 5 but it might not happen because the teams that are up there still seem to want a blue chip talent, if not a QB, which means they can't trade back too far.  If they really felt McCarron was a future starter they'd have been more aggressive signing him in FA instead of waiting to see who was left.   One of the 4 QBs has to fall out of the top 5 which is quite likely.  

I feel AZ is more content to take Lamar Jackson, or maybe even Mason Rudolph via trade up early 2nd Rd, late 1st Rd, and let him learn for a year.   Doesn't mean they wouldn't trade up for someone like Mayfield but I don't see them out-bidding the Bills for our pick at #8.  

FWIW Pace said his ideal draft scenario is that 4 QBs go ahead of where we pick.   That tells me he's hoping to get one of the blue chip players himself and he might even be interested in a trade up to make that happen.  If the trade down for lots of picks was his desire he'd want 3 QBs to go ahead of our pick.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

2 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Without even looking at the point value I'd say the Bills trade is more realistic because it's more likely to happen.  Arizona has at least put together something of a QB room, whether or not Bradford can make it through the full year is another question.   Buffalo is working every which way to get into the top 5 but it might not happen because the teams that are up there still seem to want a blue chip talent, if not a QB, which means they can't trade back too far.  If they really felt McCarron was a future starter they'd have been more aggressive signing him in FA instead of waiting to see who was left.   One of the 4 QBs has to fall out of the top 5 which is quite likely.  

I feel AZ is more content to take Lamar Jackson, or maybe even Mason Rudolph via trade up early 2nd Rd, late 1st Rd, and let him learn for a year.   Doesn't mean they wouldn't trade up for someone like Mayfield but I don't see them out-bidding the Bills for our pick at #8.  

FWIW Pace said his ideal draft scenario is that 4 QBs go ahead of where we pick.   That tells me he's hoping to get one of the blue chip players himself and he might even be interested in a trade up to make that happen.  If the trade down for lots of picks was his desire he'd want 3 QBs to go ahead of our pick.

I could very much see a scenario where Pace moves up to grab Chubb or Nelson. I don't think it would be for anyone else, however, I suppose their is always the Barkley wildcard.  Pace has proven in the past he isn't afraid to go up and grab his guy.  

[AZ54]

I'm not so sure we'd move up for Nelson but Chubb I could see happening.  

[Stinger226]

I do not think we have enough draft capital to move up in this draft. A good player will fall to us, so we will take what the draft gets us. Since their is less blue chip players this year and the QB situation, we have a better chance of moving down. Both of those situations would be acceptable. 

[AZ54]

45 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I do not think we have enough draft capital to move up in this draft. A good player will fall to us, so we will take what the draft gets us. Since their is less blue chip players this year and the QB situation, we have a better chance of moving down. Both of those situations would be acceptable. 

It might be surprising but the obvious trade is to move up with the Colts and take Saquon Barkley and give them Jordan Howard.   That's assuming Howard has value equivalent to a 3rd Rd pick and I believe he does, easily.  If we go up a bit further to #5 we might have to toss in a 4th Rd pick.  Both teams would stay in the top 8 where they can likely still get a blue chip talent.  

[adam]

The Colts have 3x 2nd round picks. The one scenario that works in terms of trade value would be:

Bears #8, #39, and #105 for Colts #6 and #49. That would give them 4 picks in the top 39 (7 in top 105) while staying in the top 10. Bears lose one of their 2 4th rounders, drop 10 spots in the 2nd, but move up to #6 which should almost assuredly land their guy assuming 3-4x QBs and Barkley are off the board. 

[AZ54]

1 hour ago, adam said:

The Colts have 3x 2nd round picks. The one scenario that works in terms of trade value would be:

Bears #8, #39, and #105 for Colts #6 and #49. That would give them 4 picks in the top 39 (7 in top 105) while staying in the top 10. Bears lose one of their 2 4th rounders, drop 10 spots in the 2nd, but move up to #6 which should almost assuredly land their guy assuming 3-4x QBs and Barkley are off the board. 

I could see that happening.  As you said, Ballard still gets one blue chip prospect and gets to completely reload his roster with young talent.   

[DABEARSDABOMB]

In general, I really don't like idea of us moving up, unless we think Chubb is that guy.  I do see the thought for Barkley though, given his pass catching ability, but I think everyone is sleeping on how freaking good Howard is. Howard is putting in work in the catching game and I think we'll see him make improvements there.  I do recognize that we will be using the back as a receiver a lot in this system though, but I think our coaching staff is dynamic and creative enough to make it work.  What I want more than anything is a monster pass rusher...Chubb could be that guy and if we think he fits the system and can be that guy, I support moving up.  Otherwise, I still think we have a lot of needs and I'd accumulate more picks, especially since I tend to think Pace has been a quality picker.  

[BearFan2000]

2 hours ago, adam said:

The Colts have 3x 2nd round picks. The one scenario that works in terms of trade value would be:

Bears #8, #39, and #105 for Colts #6 and #49. That would give them 4 picks in the top 39 (7 in top 105) while staying in the top 10. Bears lose one of their 2 4th rounders, drop 10 spots in the 2nd, but move up to #6 which should almost assuredly land their guy assuming 3-4x QBs and Barkley are off the board. 

In general I'm not a proponent of moving up this year, but this wouldn't be a bad option.   More than likely 4 of the 7 picks ahead of us will be QB's.  One of the remaining 3 will be a team taking Barkley, that leaves 2 picks before us at 8 that will be non QB/non Barkley.  We are all but guaranteed to get a blue chipper at 8.   Move up two spots and we could literally have our pick of Chub, Nelson, or anyone  we want.  Our 8th pick is almost like #4 pick.    I love that in FA we've put ourselves in a position to have real options in this draft.

Part of me still wants us to stand pat at 8, and take either Nelson or Edmunds or if by chance someone like Chub drops to us.  Crazier things have happened.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

I would move down, not up. I dont think one player in this draft can transform the team into a instant contender unless Trubisky suddenly quits football. I think we will have our choice of 5 or 6 players we like which would enable us to move down to gain a 2nd or 3rd. 

[lemonej]

On 4/3/2018 at 4:08 PM, AZ54 said:

Without even looking at the point value I'd say the Bills trade is more realistic because it's more likely to happen.  Arizona has at least put together something of a QB room, whether or not Bradford can make it through the full year is another question.   Buffalo is working every which way to get into the top 5 but it might not happen because the teams that are up there still seem to want a blue chip talent, if not a QB, which means they can't trade back too far.  If they really felt McCarron was a future starter they'd have been more aggressive signing him in FA instead of waiting to see who was left.   One of the 4 QBs has to fall out of the top 5 which is quite likely.  

I feel AZ is more content to take Lamar Jackson, or maybe even Mason Rudolph via trade up early 2nd Rd, late 1st Rd, and let him learn for a year.   Doesn't mean they wouldn't trade up for someone like Mayfield but I don't see them out-bidding the Bills for our pick at #8.  

FWIW Pace said his ideal draft scenario is that 4 QBs go ahead of where we pick.   That tells me he's hoping to get one of the blue chip players himself and he might even be interested in a trade up to make that happen.  If the trade down for lots of picks was his desire he'd want 3 QBs to go ahead of our pick.

The non-hype QB I like the most is Mason Rudolph.

[lemonej]

I think that if two of the top 4 are QBs  we have a shot at a couple of trades with the Bears being in the mix. This has been the most trade active off season of my recent memory. Most trades occur draft night and this year has obliterated that trend,

[Stinger226]

The only way we have a shot at trading down is if one of the 4 QBs are available or Barkley. So we need to hope one of the 4 drop to our spot.

[jason]

I HATE, HATE the idea of trading up. HATE.

If the Bears are going to trade down, here's how I feel about the trade options:

1. Indy - I'd trade out of the first for three 2nd round picks and a late round flyer to make up the difference.
2. Buffalo - I don't see that happening, but I'd love to see multiple first round picks.
3. Arizona - Good placing in each round. I like this one the least.

[lemonej]

In 3 drafts Pace has traded up in 2 of them in round 1 and can't believe he wasn't trying to trade up in all 3.I'm bracing myself for something unexpected like,Floyd,Trubisky,Shaheen and Cohen. Though my latest mock had Ward in the mix at 8 Davenport is a Pace type of pick.