Bears start out as 6.5 underdogs. For a 5-1 playing a 4-2 team, you would think the spread would be closer to 3. This still shows that oddsmakers do not respect the Bears. I love it. 

The Rams just lost to the 49ers with Kittle and Samuel having success against the Rams defense. The vaunted Rams defense did not get a sack or turnover. We need a big day from our TE's (STOP THROWING TO HARRIS). 

Goff only completed 50% of his passes, had 1 INT and only 5.2 yds per attempt. He didn't get sacked, but they had pressure on him all game. 

I feel about this game similar to how I did when they went to LA in 2018 and ended up winning in spectacular fashion.  The word to describe it; ‘apprehensive’. I know they are capable is winning but will they?  The D is definitely trending up (see pic below). But the offense and specifically the play calling is a huge question mark for me.  If Foles gets killed behind the line it’s nearly all over.  If the running game doesn’t get established, at some point, they become very one-dimensional (Foles is nowhere near as mobile as Mitch) and Defenses like the Rams will focus on that to disrupt it.  
 

All that being said I’m predicting a big game by the D.  Jackson (or someone else on D) will finally get a pick six counted and a few other TOs will occur along the way. I get this feeling that Quinn is due a big game.  Is this the one? 
 

 

There is also this. We have the 3rd best Strength of Victory in the NFC. The Rams are 9th. 

 

I predicted a 24-16 Bears win last week (they won 23-16). This week I am thinking we get 2 TDs and the Rams get 1 with a few FGs sprinkled in. Bears 20-13. 

2 hours ago, adam said:

There is also this. We have the 3rd best Strength of Victory in the NFC. The Rams are 9th. 

 

Can’t help note that TB is #1 on this list, and the Bears beat them.  Hmmmm...

OK, no offense to anyone, but what the hell is Strength of victory.  How many math nerds does it take to compute that stat.  Or even how you come to what it means or how to put a percentage to it?  Always been math challenged so just asking my smarter brethren.

1 hour ago, Bill said:

OK, no offense to anyone, but what the hell is Strength of victory.  How many math nerds does it take to compute that stat.  Or even how you come to what it means or how to put a percentage to it?  Always been math challenged so just asking my smarter brethren.

Just like normal SoS is the combined record of the teams that you've played, SoV is only the records of the teams you beat (minus the game where you beat them).  So TB is 4-2 overall but 4-1 for SoV (subtract the loss to the Bears for our SoV). CAR is 3-2, ATL is 1-4, DET is 2-2, and NYG is 1-5 for our SoV calculation. Add all those up and you get the Bears SoV. IND does not count because we lost to them. 

It's kinda cool because it only gives you credit for wins. Some teams SoS is padded by good teams they lose to. This does not give you that benefit.

4 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Can’t help note that TB is #1 on this list, and the Bears beat them.  Hmmmm...

TB has 4 wins, CAR 3-2, DEN 2-2, LAC 1-3, and GB 4-0 for SoV. They have beat 3 teams at or above .500. 

Well this is new...and concerning.

 

12 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Well this is new...and concerning.

 

They also said they were giving him the day off to rest. Luckily the game is on Monday night, so he gets an extra day and half off to rest it. 

For what it's worth, the line doesn't exactly represent what outcome the oddsmakers think will happen, but instead what outcome the oddsmakers think the majority of people BETTING think will happen.

They dont aim to predict the outcome of the game, but to predict what line will draw even money to both sides, so that no matter who wins, they win.

For example, you can often win by taking the points against the Packers, or in Brady days, the Patriots. This is because their fans are so blinded that they over estimate the amount by which their team will win. So even if the oddsmakers KNOW this, they would rather get even money on each side of the bet so there is no risk.

So the disrespect to the Bears comes not from the oddsmakers, but from the betting public. The oddsmakers just reflect their knowledge of this to keep the money even.

2 hours ago, BearFan NYC said:

For what it's worth, the line doesn't exactly represent what outcome the oddsmakers think will happen, but instead what outcome the oddsmakers think the majority of people BETTING think will happen.

They dont aim to predict the outcome of the game, but to predict what line will draw even money to both sides, so that no matter who wins, they win.

For example, you can often win by taking the points against the Packers, or in Brady days, the Patriots. This is because their fans are so blinded that they over estimate the amount by which their team will win. So even if the oddsmakers KNOW this, they would rather get even money on each side of the bet so there is no risk.

So the disrespect to the Bears comes not from the oddsmakers, but from the betting public. The oddsmakers just reflect their knowledge of this to keep the money even.

You are correct that they want even money because that neutralizes any wins and they take their 10%.

Here is a great article about it: https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/bears/ct-chicago-bears-underdog-las-vegas-oddsmakers-point-spread-20201016-cm3sj4gnxvfhbg2kmogpyibvby-story.html
 

That article clearly shows that the oddsmakers have their own sentiment about teams. The Bears are the Lions to them.

This game might be just the time where Nagy starts adding Trubisky as a gadget player or distraction.  Maybe lining him up in the slot occasionally and running pass plays from there.  Or even doing a modified “Philly special” with Foles rotating to the edge and Trubiksy looking to throw to Foles or run it himself.  A few years back the only offensive TD scored against the Rams was when Trubiksy threw a TD to Bradley Sowell.  MNF seems like a good stage to pull our some tricks.  Would be a good way to keep Mitch involved and feel like he’s contributing.

 

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/DawindycityP/status/1304477570864422917?s=20

This is worth watching, a Bears booster piece. It popped up to 3 short videos instead of the one I wanted, but still cool.

For some reason that did not share what I was looking at, its a current piece that isnt shown by that link.

It would be nice to have an offensive explosion, but this game will be similar to every other game we had this year. 24 points, if we get a DT, 30. Rams anywhere from 13-20. As much as we havent been good against the run, I think we are getting better at it. The RBs are not killing us. The red zone defense is the best in the league and as long as that holds up tonight we win. The key will be to pressure Goff and get into his head. With the covid crap going on, no longer are road games a big negative. No fans.

The Bears start this game as the #1 Seed in the NFC. With a win, they would have a 1/2 game lead on the #2 Seed.

4 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

It would be nice to have an offensive explosion, but this game will be similar to every other game we had this year. 24 points, if we get a DT, 30. Rams anywhere from 13-20. As much as we havent been good against the run, I think we are getting better at it. The RBs are not killing us. The red zone defense is the best in the league and as long as that holds up tonight we win. The key will be to pressure Goff and get into his head. With the covid crap going on, no longer are road games a big negative. No fans.

Fingers crossed, I have tickets for the Titans game. 

4 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

The RBs are not killing us.

I’d like to see what L. Miller, Pierce and/or Nall can offer.  I have to think Miller is still recovering from last year’s injury if he hasn’t played yet.  

I hope Jackson isn’t serious.  

Cute, put the mini package in while in redzone.  There is a reason size/target is a thing.

Now they cannot tackle either, pathetic.

2 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Cute, put the mini package in while in redzone.  There is a reason size/target is a thing.

Now they cannot tackle either, pathetic.

Was it Griese that noted Graham coming out right as they most needed him?  Seems an odd call for sure now that it blew up.  Nagy is proving he's not up to the job.  (And now Whitehair is out...ugh).

Defense is gassed, plain and simple.  

This game is painful to watch.  Thai Int should have been pass interference defender never looked for the ball. We’re playing like crap on both sides.  This line is going to get Nick killed. 
 

3 points through 3 quarters.  PATHETIC 

Matt Nagy is the worst play caller in the NFL, and it's not close.

20 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Was it Griese that noted Graham coming out right as they most needed him?  Seems an odd call for sure now that it blew up.  Nagy is proving he's not up to the job.  (And now Whitehair is out...ugh).

Defense is gassed, plain and simple.  

It would be great to go into a bye week after this.  Glad someone told the D to get off the field as they tried to dance after a finally Eddie Jackson TD. I wouldn't mind seeing some Trubisky again.  With this oline, the QB needs to have mobility