Tight End Thread (Kmet Impressive?)

[adam]

With Cole Kmet still only 23 yrs old, I took a look back at how the current top TEs looked before they turned 24 and I was pretty shocked.

Right now, Kmet has 33 more receptions than the next best TE before the age of 24 and he needs only 68 more yards to pass Pitts (on IR) for the most yards by an (active) TE before the age of 24. If he gets 2 TDs, he would also tie Njoku for the TD lead with 9.

Did you know Kmet was this productive at that young of an age? If he averages the same number of receptions and yardage he had last year (60-612) from 2023 until he was 34 (Kelce is 33), he would be in the top 5 for receptions by a TE (all-time). With that projected yardage, he would also be in the top 10 for yards and would need about 5 TDs a year to crack the top 10 all-time over a career for a TE.

Active Tight Ends stats before the age of 24:

1. Kmet - 132-1315-7 (2 games left)
2. Hockenson - 99-1090-8
3. Pitts 96-1382-3 (1 season left)
4. Njoku - 93-1066-9
5. Freiermuth 88-807-8
6. Engram - 64-722-6
7. Ertz 61-827-6
8. Otton 39-369-2 (Rookie)
9. Andrews - 34-552-3
10. Knox - 34-381-2
11. Dulcich - 33-411-2 (Rookie)
12. Goedert - 33-334-4
13. Gesicki 28-253-0
14. Bellinger 27-226-2
15. Okonkwo 26-384-2 (Rookie)
16. Kittle - 17-166-1
17. Schultz - 13-122-0
18. Higbee 11-85-1
19. Waller - 2-18-0
20. Kelce - 1 special teams snap

Notable Star and HOF TEs before 24:
1. Gronkowski 187-2663-38 (Gronk was an absolute beast, I don't know if we will ever see such a dominant young TE again, insane numbers)
2. Gonzalez 168-1838-15 (He was the TE gold standard before Gronk)
3. Witten 188-2084-13 (He seems like a TE that Kmet is best compared to)
4. Olsen 93-965-7 (ex-Bear - screw Martz, who had a long and successful career)
5. Gates 24-389-2 
6. Sharpe 29-421-2
7. Graham 13-170-1

He already has the team lead in receptions locked up (44 and counting), needing only 6 more to hit 50 on the year. With 34 more yards, he will pass Mooney for the most receiving yards on the team, and his 5 TDs already lead the team. With 40 more yards, he will have his 2nd 500 yard receiving season (Proj: 51-526-6). 

[AZ54]

He's better than most fans think he is.  Keep in mind for much of the year our offense was stagnant (3 and out) and thus limited his opportunities, then on top of that we've been a run-oriented offense all year.  He also hasn't had a consistent good WR corps for a defense to focus on.   

[killakrzydav]

I have multiple trade back draft simulations where I grabbed Kincaid with one of my three second rounders mid round.

[Stinger226]

39 minutes ago, killakrzydav said:

I have multiple trade back draft simulations where I grabbed Kincaid with one of my three second rounders mid round.

Kincaid is a stud TE in receiving.  Great hands, if we cant get a #1 type  WR this yr another TE that can be a playmaker would be great. On Tankathon's big board he is ranked around pick 56 (where we are picking). If we trade back with extra picks, he should be a target, if straight draft I expect a OL or DL to be picked there. Maybe WR but Kincaid could have a bigger impact. Kmet is above average and the only reason his stats are not better is a lethargic passing game. 

 

[killakrzydav]

Yea, I’ve been hoping they upgraded Kmet.

 Here’sa few drafts where he made the cut.

 

[adam]

I don't know if I want to commit any additional resources to TE. Right now the low volume in the passing attack is hurting all the players, including Kmet. 

If Fields was averaging 225 yds passing a game (which is still low by today's standards), Kmet would have numbers like this: 58-600-7 with 2 games left. He would be on pace for 65+ receptions, 700+ yds, and 8 TDs which would be TE9 for receptions and yards and TE5 for TDs for last year.

So a top 10 TE who is a great blocker seems like a solid starter. For a backup TE, I would not commit anything earlier than a 5th rounder. With so many other holes to fill, TE seems like a luxury pick. Now on the flip side, if you are picking a TE early, then it should replace your WR selection.

[Stinger226]

Only pick a TE  as a mid round pick unless getting a bunch of picks when trading back nets us 6 or 7 top 100 picks. Kincaid would be a nice add thou. He has great hands.

[adam]

Kmet finishes the year with 50-544 and 7 TDs (1st on team in every category) in the worst passing offense in the league. The yardage was 13th for TEs but was only 33 yards from 10th and he didn't have any receptions in the first 2 games. He finished 3rd in TD receptions for TEs, only behind Kelce and Kittle.

[AZ54]

Do you know where he ranks in blocking among TEs?  I think that was his biggest improvement on the field this year and bodes well for his future as a TE who can be effective in all aspects of the offense.  

[adam]

1 hour ago, AZ54 said:

Do you know where he ranks in blocking among TEs?  I think that was his biggest improvement on the field this year and bodes well for his future as a TE who can be effective in all aspects of the offense.  

The Bears were the only team with over 3000 rushing yards (team record) and even though a lot of that was Fields, the TEs and WRs had some great blocks. 

I don't know if anyone besides PFF but just from the eyeball test, he was definitely in the top half of the league as a blocker. 

[jason]

I hate the idea of giving up on yet another TE. And, yes, I'm including Shaheen; that cat never even got a real chance...just thrown into a messy mix. 

Kmet is doing very well.

Drafting another TE to actually compete would be counter-productive in several ways.

1. It's not remotely a need. This roster is barren, and y'all want to draft a TE because Kmet is not producing like Gronk, even though the Bears have the worst passing offense in the NFL?
2. Kmet is not underperforming; he just lacks targets. Kmet got about 80 targets each of the last two years, and Kelce averaged about 140 targets each of the last six years. Bump Kmet's targets and stomp into top 5 TE in the league territory. 
3. Kmet is better than you think. Of the top ten TEs by targets, he is third in catch percentage (.724) behind Engram (.744) and Njoku (.725).
4. It would take reps away from Kmet who is building familiarity and cohesion with the franchise QB.
5. It would insert a rookie into the mix to "figure things out" (see Shaheen's entire career)
6. It creates a multi-headed TE scenario which almost never works other than Gronk and Hernandez (see the last ten years of Chicago Bears football trying out multiple headed monster TE scenarios. Y'all remember Evan Rodriguez?)
7. It wastes draft capital on a team in desperate need of just about every other position.

Just say no to drafting another TE.

[AZ54]

3 hours ago, adam said:

The Bears were the only team with over 3000 rushing yards (team record) and even though a lot of that was Fields, the TEs and WRs had some great blocks. 

I don't know if anyone besides PFF but just from the eyeball test, he was definitely in the top half of the league as a blocker. 

When he reviews Fields performance Trent Dilfer often comments how unique Kmet is as a TE because he blocks well and runs routes well.  He says he is not or never will be Kelce but as an all-around TE there aren't many as good as him.  He's young enough that he should continue to improve and also has many prime years ahead of him. 

It is worth noting that ND TE Mayer is typically listed as a top 15, and sometimes top 10 pick.  I think Kmet is similar athletically although Mayer seems to have a little better short area quickness and more agility to adjust to the ball.  Kmet has the edge on blocking.         

[Connorbear]

6 minutes ago, jason said:

I hate the idea of giving up on yet another TE. And, yes, I'm including Shaheen; that cat never even got a real chance...just thrown into a messy mix. 

Kmet is doing very well.

Drafting another TE to actually compete would be counter-productive in several ways.

1. It's not remotely a need. This roster is barren, and y'all want to draft a TE because Kmet is not producing like Gronk, even though the Bears have the worst passing offense in the NFL?
2. Kmet is not underperforming; he just lacks targets. Kmet got about 80 targets each of the last two years, and Kelce averaged about 140 targets each of the last six years. Bump Kmet's targets and stomp into top 5 TE in the league territory. 
3. It would take reps away from Kmet who is building familiarity and cohesion with the franchise QB.
4. It would insert a rookie into the mix to "figure things out" (see Shaheen's entire career)
5. It creates a multi-headed TE scenario which almost never works other than Gronk and Hernandez (see the last ten years of Chicago Bears football trying out multiple headed monster TE scenarios. Y'all remember Evan Rodriguez?)
6. It wastes draft capital on a team in desperate need of just about every other position.

Just say no to drafting another TE.

I agree that Kmet performed really well this year and there is no need to draft a TE at least not at the top of the draft. I wouldn't have an issue with using a 5th round pick or lower on one. 

Peace

[adam]

18 minutes ago, jason said:

I hate the idea of giving up on yet another TE. And, yes, I'm including Shaheen; that cat never even got a real chance...just thrown into a messy mix. 

Kmet is doing very well.

Drafting another TE to actually compete would be counter-productive in several ways.

1. It's not remotely a need. This roster is barren, and y'all want to draft a TE because Kmet is not producing like Gronk, even though the Bears have the worst passing offense in the NFL?
2. Kmet is not underperforming; he just lacks targets. Kmet got about 80 targets each of the last two years, and Kelce averaged about 140 targets each of the last six years. Bump Kmet's targets and stomp into top 5 TE in the league territory. 
3. Kmet is better than you think. Of the top ten TEs by targets, he is third in catch percentage (.724) behind Engram (.744) and Njoku (.725).
4. It would take reps away from Kmet who is building familiarity and cohesion with the franchise QB.
5. It would insert a rookie into the mix to "figure things out" (see Shaheen's entire career)
6. It creates a multi-headed TE scenario which almost never works other than Gronk and Hernandez (see the last ten years of Chicago Bears football trying out multiple headed monster TE scenarios. Y'all remember Evan Rodriguez?)
7. It wastes draft capital on a team in desperate need of just about every other position.

Just say no to drafting another TE.

I am not in that camp, if you read any of my posts, I was highlighting how good Kmet has been doing, not only as an active young TE, but also on the team with the worst passing offense in the league. If his production was in an average passing offense, he would have over 70 receptions, 750 yards, and 10 TDs, which would be a top 5 TE. 

[Stinger226]

They will draft a TE but not until late. To many holes to fill before they get to the. TE room. Rookie TEs rarely go off their first year. Having said that I would love to draft Dalton Kincaid. Awesome hands.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

5 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

They will draft a TE but not until late. To many holes to fill before they get to the. TE room. Rookie TEs rarely go off their first year. Having said that I would love to draft Dalton Kincaid. Awesome hands.

This is why I say go sign a TE to a 3 year deal (like Evan Engrim). Combine him with Kmet and save your draft picks for something else. It isn't like there are free agent wideouts they are going to spend money on so why not pay a TE (call it 3 yr 30M or something).  I go back to - having a 2nd TE to go with Kmet (who I like a lot) plus a better running back (as a receiver) and those are 2 additions that will help Fields from a safety net perspective (call it the dump off).  Than you maybe draft a wideout and get Mooney (back) and Claypool (integrated w/an offseason) and than you have St. Brown, Harry (on the cheap if he wants to come back) and Velus Jones.  

That way you aren't using a ton of cap space or draft picks on skill position - but you are upgrading it pretty materially (a good TE is going to be a lot cheaper than a dynamic wideout, for example).  Than use more of your high end picks on the lines plus the big splurges on cap space on the lines too (say get an Orlando Brown (who I don't love but you know what at some point just buy a high end LT even if its a poor man's high end LT) and an impact linemen (or two).  

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

This is why I say go sign a TE to a 3 year deal (like Evan Engrim). Combine him with Kmet and save your draft picks for something else. It isn't like there are free agent wideouts they are going to spend money on so why not pay a TE (call it 3 yr 30M or something).  I go back to - having a 2nd TE to go with Kmet (who I like a lot) plus a better running back (as a receiver) and those are 2 additions that will help Fields from a safety net perspective (call it the dump off).  Than you maybe draft a wideout and get Mooney (back) and Claypool (integrated w/an offseason) and than you have St. Brown, Harry (on the cheap if he wants to come back) and Velus Jones.  

That way you aren't using a ton of cap space or draft picks on skill position - but you are upgrading it pretty materially (a good TE is going to be a lot cheaper than a dynamic wideout, for example).  Than use more of your high end picks on the lines plus the big splurges on cap space on the lines too (say get an Orlando Brown (who I don't love but you know what at some point just buy a high end LT even if its a poor man's high end LT) and an impact linemen (or two).  

Like all those ideas. I think it's paramount for the OL to be better so I think they add 2 veterans to the OL. New OC and RT then still draft a OL to add depth and groom to the over for a vet (not with the first few picks)