My Greatest Wish Draft...

[Mongo3451]

1 hour ago, dawhizz said:

and end up deciding on just rolling with the guys they have. 

If this is the case and it works out well, I would be ecstatic.  If not, I'll be sorely disappointed in a another blown opportunity that would sting like other administration's failures.  I'm in a mindset to over-invest until it's no longer a talking point...

[AZ54]

I watched just one game of Joe Tippman against Mich St and didn't make it past the 4min mark.   For a top center he gets rag-dolled... a lot.  He has some good plays mixed in but quite often I see DTs shedding his block and on a lot of them it looks easy to toss him aside and frequently Tippman ends up on the ground.  The only reason for an Oline player to be on the ground is because they just buried the defensive player across from them.  You can even see LBs get off his block pretty easily. 

This is far from the first example in the game (first example happens in first 30s) but at the ~3:30 mark on the goal line he gets tossed aside and the DT gets right in the backfield.   To his credit while sitting on his butt at the 2yd line he does hold up both arms to signal TD.  No other draftable Center I've watched so far has given me the same "Musti" feeling I get with this guy.   Maybe this was just a bad game. 

TDN has him rated at 38 overall and I just don't see that in this game.   All players have negatives but when I can find them that quickly and that often it concerns me especially for someone with a 2nd Rd grade.  (I didn't even read this until after I wrote this post and I was curious where he was ranked.)  

https://thedraftnetwork.com/sr-prospect/joe-tippmann-b6994694-fab6-4281-9688-d006948d0aef/

"Tippmann’s physical profile is outstanding but it comes with a few drawbacks. Tippmann has to work harder to get underneath his opponent’s pads due to his height. He is inconsistent with bending at the knees and will find himself leaning from the waist. This creates block sustainability issues. He can be a bit over-aggressive to get the jump on quicker defensive linemen, resulting in him lunging and not connecting. Tippmann could benefit from improving his punch timing. Too many times, defensive linemen attack quickly, get their hands into his chest, and win the leverage battle. This also makes him susceptible to the push/pull technique. Defenders tend to attack his right shoulder/hip to force improper weight distribution creating balance issues. "

 

[killakrzydav]

Wowzers, that looks like Musty!

[BearFan PHX]

I only did 4 rounds, and I traded up for Kancey. This isnt a huge haul of names like some drafts, and I probably paid a bit too much to move up for Kancey, but this does show that its possible to really add a lot of talent to the lines without any crazy pro Bears trades. We'd still need an edge rusher, and a CB, but we'd be looking pretty good with this draft I think. And of course there are still a number of picks to go in rounds 5-7 too.

 

 

[dawhizz]

Did some dealing with this one. I think Bresee can play 3T. 
 

• 
  18.
  Bryan Bresee

  DT Clemson
  
• 
  55.
  Derick Hall

  EDGE Auburn
  
• 
  61.
  Blake Freeland

  OT BYU
   
• 
  62.
  Tyrique Stevenson

  CB Miami (FL)
  
• 
  64.
  Kayshon Boutte

  WR LSU
   
• 
  66.
  Sam LaPorta

  TE Iowa
  
• 
  96.
  Luke Wypler

  OC Ohio State
  
• 
  103.
  Zacch Pickens

  DT South Carolina
   
• 
  133.
  Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson

  CB TCU
   
• 
  148.
  Jammie Robinson

  S Florida State
   
• 
  218.
  Keaton Mitchell

  RB East Carolina

[jason]

On 4/1/2023 at 10:25 AM, ASHKUM BEAR said:

I feel like the Bears already shaved 2 years off their QB1s potential by not immediately investing resources around him. Let's not push this any further.  The WR room is better, the RBs a wash for now, but the Oline is stagnant.  Just think if Brax Jones didn't work, they would be looking at upgrading 3  positions.  Bring in the best OT and C and the D can be pieced together.  If the Bears are to ever win a Superbowl, it happens with a QB excelling.

 

1,000,000% agree!! I simply don't understand how a team can draft a rookie QB with a first round pick and not make the OL the very next priority. We've seen it over and over with rookie QBs getting blasted, changing mechanics, losing confidence, and blindly chucking the ball - and their career - away because the OL couldn't keep them clean. The truth of the matter is, 99.9% of the QBs who get drafted in the first round have all the skills necessary, but some have intangibles that allows them to more easily deal with the growing pains. But if that can be avoided, why risk it? 

This is true of not just rookie QBs, but also young vets. I'll go to my grave thinking the Bears had a franchise QB in Cutler, but ruined him because OL never got the love it needed. Very early on he was shell-shocked while the Bears were busy trying out scrubs like Frank Omiyale, Chilo Rachal, Michael Ola, Vlad Ducasse, Charles Leno Jr, and Jamarcus Webb at multiple positions.

[jason]

On 4/1/2023 at 1:17 AM, Stinger226 said:

I personally would rather see Joe Tippmann instead of Wypler. We have a young center on the roster similar to Wypler. Doug Kramer, same size both were second team big 10 behind JSM.  Tippman is bigger can also play OG, Wypler is strictly a OC.

PoTAYto, PoTAHto for me. I just picked Wypler because him and Tippmann are interchangeable in terms of how the draft pundits are ranking them, and if I had to choose, I'd pick Wypler because:

1. He played at Ohio State like the QB.
2. He played at Ohio State like the 1st round OT and the QB.
3. Ohio State is a better football school than Wisconsin.
4. I hate the state of Wisconsin.
5. I'm forever soured on Wisconsin players after Carimi.
6. Number 5 reinforces number 4. 

[Stinger226]

How many and who are your sure things in this draft? ( be potential pro Bowl type players) not QBs

Anderson--Carter-- Skoronski--Robinson--Weatherspoon  Tier 1

Murphy--Wilson--Gonzalez--JSN Tier 2.  ( very close but ?) 

If Poles goes BPA , Is he going to pick JSN, Nick Weatherspoon or Bijan Robinson?

I don't think Skoronski will play OT in the NFL

I'm totally against Robinson or JSN because we have added assets in those positions groups but they may be BPA at 9.

Poles stated he will not get all positions upgraded his year so does he go true BPA at 9. Foreman  is on a one year deal, and Claypool may be gone after this year. Weatherspoon will put us in the position to not have to sign JJ to a big contract.

You could make the case for Skoronski and play him at OT for this year or they move Jenkins to RT. 

The more I read the more I think 9  may not be in the trenches. 

 

[Mongo3451]

9 hours ago, jason said:

1,000,000% agree!! I simply don't understand how a team can draft a rookie QB with a first round pick and not make the OL the very next priority. We've seen it over and over with rookie QBs getting blasted, changing mechanics, losing confidence, and blindly chucking the ball - and their career - away because the OL couldn't keep them clean. The truth of the matter is, 99.9% of the QBs who get drafted in the first round have all the skills necessary, but some have intangibles that allows them to more easily deal with the growing pains. But if that can be avoided, why risk it? 

This is true of not just rookie QBs, but also young vets. I'll go to my grave thinking the Bears had a franchise QB in Cutler, but ruined him because OL never got the love it needed. Very early on he was shell-shocked while the Bears were busy trying out scrubs like Frank Omiyale, Chilo Rachal, Michael Ola, Vlad Ducasse, Charles Leno Jr, and Jamarcus Webb at multiple positions.

The only way I could love this any more is to add one more thought.  When you are a cellar dweller, get your house (OL) in order before you draft your franchise QB.  Why lead a lamb to slaughter when you can feast on your opponent...

[AZ54]

4 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

The only way I could love this any more is to add one more thought.  When you are a cellar dweller, get your house (OL) in order before you draft your franchise QB.  Why lead a lamb to slaughter when you can feast on your opponent...

The QBs are the unicorns and are a whole lot more difficult to find than any Oline  position.  Not only are the QBs rare if the rest of your roster is ready to compete then you almost certainly won’t be in the draft position needed to draft the QB.   Zero chance I’d pass on a starting QB just because I had a gap to fill on the line.   

[Mongo3451]

32 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

The QBs are the unicorns and are a whole lot more difficult to find than any Oline  position.  Not only are the QBs rare if the rest of your roster is ready to compete then you almost certainly won’t be in the draft position needed to draft the QB.   Zero chance I’d pass on a starting QB just because I had a gap to fill on the line.   

When is the last time it worked?

[AZ54]

7 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

When is the last time it worked?

Justin Fields, Trevor Lawrence albeit both are still a work in progress but IMO are on the right path. 

Joe Burrow  

Tua was playing very well this year before his head injuries although I'm not sold on him.   

Justin Herbert

Josh Allen

Andrew Luck

Naturally the draft history is riddled with 1st Rd failures too, even at 1st overall:  Murray (serious fence sitter as a talented head case), Mayfield.    

Now OTOH the 49ers had everything built except QB, went all-in on Trey Lance, and now a 7th Rd pick is their starter.  Chiefs had everything built including a good QB playing at a Pro Bowl level and still felt it was worthwhile to trade up to take Mahomes.   

In the end you still have to make the right decision as to which of these college QBs is the unicorn.  Looking back over the last decade, on average you only get a little over 1.1 - 1.3 starting QBs per draft depending how you count players like Carr.  I may have missed a name in there somewhere but then again, some years the draft yields zero long term starting QBs.   https://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/qb

[Stinger226]

On 4/4/2023 at 4:36 AM, BearFan PHX said:

I only did 4 rounds, and I traded up for Kancey. This isnt a huge haul of names like some drafts, and I probably paid a bit too much to move up for Kancey, but this does show that its possible to really add a lot of talent to the lines without any crazy pro Bears trades. We'd still need an edge rusher, and a CB, but we'd be looking pretty good with this draft I think. And of course there are still a number of picks to go in rounds 5-7 too.

 

 

I don't see any way we draft OL with 3 out of our first 4 picks. Cody Mauch can play OC. We have two above average OGs now and Braxton Jones is one of our tackles.

An OT, Edge, DT, maybe CB, maybe RB, maybe another DL. I think pick 103 will land us a OC.

Stromberg, O O,  are in that range. 

[BearFan PHX]

3 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I don't see any way we draft OL with 3 out of our first 4 picks. Cody Mauch can play OC. We have two above average OGs now and Braxton Jones is one of our tackles.

An OT, Edge, DT, maybe CB, maybe RB, maybe another DL. I think pick 103 will land us a OC.

Stromberg, O O,  are in that range. 

I dont see why Braxton Jones is somehow considered a blue chipper at this point. I say take those players (if you can!) and let the best 5 play.

If we roll with Jones that's fine, but if we draft players who are better, thats OK too. Whatever gives us the strongest OL.

I think Paris Johnson is better than Braxton Jones at LT, and I think Cody Mauch is better than Braxton Jones at RT.

I imagine Paris at LT, with Jenkins at LG, someone new at center, Davis at RG and Mauch at RT - that would be a nasty OL.

[Mongo3451]

16 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Justin Fields, Trevor Lawrence albeit both are still a work in progress but IMO are on the right path. 

Joe Burrow  

Tua was playing very well this year before his head injuries although I'm not sold on him.   

Justin Herbert

Josh Allen

Andrew Luck

Naturally the draft history is riddled with 1st Rd failures too, even at 1st overall:  Murray (serious fence sitter as a talented head case), Mayfield.    

Now OTOH the 49ers had everything built except QB, went all-in on Trey Lance, and now a 7th Rd pick is their starter.  Chiefs had everything built including a good QB playing at a Pro Bowl level and still felt it was worthwhile to trade up to take Mahomes.   

In the end you still have to make the right decision as to which of these college QBs is the unicorn.  Looking back over the last decade, on average you only get a little over 1.1 - 1.3 starting QBs per draft depending how you count players like Carr.  I may have missed a name in there somewhere but then again, some years the draft yields zero long term starting QBs.   https://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/qb

Again, I'll disagree.  Out of the successes you stated only Fields and Burrow had dismal offensive lines.

Marino, Kelly, Brees, Manning, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, Jackson, and Mahommes all had decent offensive lines when they were thrust into action.  I don't want to begin the list of sacrificial lambs that didn't have the luxury. 

All situations we choose to highlight have individual circumstances that can't be quantified.  It comes down to individual philosophy like the chicken and egg...

[Stinger226]

40 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

I dont see why Braxton Jones is somehow considered a blue chipper at this point. I say take those players (if you can!) and let the best 5 play.

If we roll with Jones that's fine, but if we draft players who are better, thats OK too. Whatever gives us the strongest OL.

I think Paris Johnson is better than Braxton Jones at LT, and I think Cody Mauch is better than Braxton Jones at RT.

I imagine Paris at LT, with Jenkins at LG, someone new at center, Davis at RG and Mauch at RT - that would be a nasty OL.

My point was I don't think Poles is doing that, I would love to get PJJ and Mauch in this draft. Not draft 3 OL in your first 4 picks. If you're a GM and you got a 5th round pick that played way above expectations, he ain't throwing that move away in his second year. He may not be the LT but he's starting one of those spots. Say that happens, he would try Mauch at center spot in that scenario. None of these OTs this year are considered blue chip pro Bowl types anyway. Maybe above average 10 year starters which would still be great draft picks. Skronoski is a considered a blue chip prospect but not as a OT. 

[Stinger226]

On 4/1/2023 at 10:25 PM, ASHKUM BEAR said:

I feel like the Bears already shaved 2 years off their QB1s potential by not immediately investing resources around him. Let's not push this any further.  The WR room is better, the RBs a wash for now, but the Oline is stagnant.  Just think if Brax Jones didn't work, they would be looking at upgrading 3  positions.  Bring in the best OT and C and the D can be pieced together.  If the Bears are to ever win a Superbowl, it happens with a QB excelling.

 

Actually they did try to fix the OL right out from the start. This new regime isn't responsible for the wasted first year under Pace. Poles offered more money to both Brian Allen and the Rams LT ( can't remember his name) they both stayed with the SB champs.. Then they tried to get Ryan Bates and that failed.  To say they didn't do enough is correct but they did try. They brought in new WRs but none of them were successful. My point is they tried to help the offense in his first year, but it didn't work out. 

Poles came in having to evaluate what was already here , Fields also. Jenkins, Borom, there wasn't A lot of high level starters already in place. In the draft he took BPA and is going to use that theory going forward. Good GMs do that. No way he thought we could be successful in one year. He is roster building with 3 years in mind.

[AZ54]

40 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Again, I'll disagree.  Out of the successes you stated only Fields and Burrow had dismal offensive lines.

Marino, Kelly, Brees, Manning, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, Jackson, and Mahommes all had decent offensive lines when they were thrust into action.  I don't want to begin the list of sacrificial lambs that didn't have the luxury. 

All situations we choose to highlight have individual circumstances that can't be quantified.  It comes down to individual philosophy like the chicken and egg...

Fact is most teams field a decent Oline.  What we've had to endure the last 2 years is frightening.  I still would have taken Fields when we did over any Oline player.  I agree that we can disagree.  

[Mongo3451]

1 hour ago, AZ54 said:

Fact is most teams field a decent Oline.  What we've had to endure the last 2 years is frightening.  I still would have taken Fields when we did over any Oline player.  I agree that we can disagree.  

I would to in that instance.  But, would not have put him on the Field.  I was on record with wanting them to keep Trubisky another year while we fixed it.  None of it happened.  Lord Poles has a plan.  He hasn't let me down yet...🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻

[BearFan PHX]

4 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

My point was I don't think Poles is doing that, I would love to get PJJ and Mauch in this draft. Not draft 3 OL in your first 4 picks. If you're a GM and you got a 5th round pick that played way above expectations, he ain't throwing that move away in his second year. He may not be the LT but he's starting one of those spots. Say that happens, he would try Mauch at center spot in that scenario. None of these OTs this year are considered blue chip pro Bowl types anyway. Maybe above average 10 year starters which would still be great draft picks. Skronoski is a considered a blue chip prospect but not as a OT. 

I think you just pick based on ability. I wouldnt worry to much about "losing" the value of a 5th round pick last year in the equation. That's a sunk costs fallacy. I just think you put the best players out there you can get and afford, and if that makes Jones a top tier backup then so be it.

I dont hate Jones or anything (not like I hated Leno!) hes an OK LT, but i just think that if you can put PJJ there, then thats an upgrade. And if you can snag Mauch I think hes a better RT. Maybe you can trade Jones and get more than a 5th for him?

I would make choices based on best players going into the future rather than maximizing last years' draft value.

HOWEVER, if they think Jones is really good, as good as PJJ, then by all means they should keep him and pick another position! But not cuz you got him cheap, but because hes really good.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

4 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Actually they did try to fix the OL right out from the start. This new regime isn't responsible for the wasted first year under Pace. Poles offered more money to both Brian Allen and the Rams LT ( can't remember his name) they both stayed with the SB champs.. Then they tried to get Ryan Bates and that failed.  To say they didn't do enough is correct but they did try. They brought in new WRs but none of them were successful. My point is they tried to help the offense in his first year, but it didn't work out. 

Poles came in having to evaluate what was already here , Fields also. Jenkins, Borom, there wasn't A lot of high level starters already in place. In the draft he took BPA and is going to use that theory going forward. Good GMs do that. No way he thought we could be successful in one year. He is roster building with 3 years in mind.

 

4 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Actually they did try to fix the OL right out from the start. This new regime isn't responsible for the wasted first year under Pace. Poles offered more money to both Brian Allen and the Rams LT ( can't remember his name) they both stayed with the SB champs.. Then they tried to get Ryan Bates and that failed.  To say they didn't do enough is correct but they did try. They brought in new WRs but none of them were successful. My point is they tried to help the offense in his first year, but it didn't work out. 

Poles came in having to evaluate what was already here , Fields also. Jenkins, Borom, there wasn't A lot of high level starters already in place. In the draft he took BPA and is going to use that theory going forward. Good GMs do that. No way he thought we could be successful in one year. He is roster building with 3 years in mind.

They tried then but here we are.  They tried a little harder so far this offseason which is inspiring.  All I am saying is you have Justin Fields, make him the priority before he gets injured bad or loses the confidence he has left and you are back to square one.  Hearing Poles is doing it the right way is what we heard with every GM's first year or two since Angelo left.  The Bears might have first dibs on the best offensive lineman in the draft, what is that worth...RT McGlinchey signed 5 yr 87.5 million.  I believe that is the route to go.  Get Fields the pieces now and then they can go all out on D early next year.  Especially if the offense looks special and d is a few pieces away.

[Stinger226]

43 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

I think you just pick based on ability. I wouldnt worry to much about "losing" the value of a 5th round pick last year in the equation. That's a sunk costs fallacy. I just think you put the best players out there you can get and afford, and if that makes Jones a top tier backup then so be it.

I dont hate Jones or anything (not like I hated Leno!) hes an OK LT, but i just think that if you can put PJJ there, then thats an upgrade. And if you can snag Mauch I think hes a better RT. Maybe you can trade Jones and get more than a 5th for him?

I would make choices based on best players going into the future rather than maximizing last years' draft value.

HOWEVER, if they think Jones is really good, as good as PJJ, then by all means they should keep him and pick another position! But not cuz you got him cheap, but because hes really good.

Overall I agree with you, best players should be playing.  Both of those projected players we would be lucky to get, and are better than Jones, maybe. 

I think the Jones pick is the signature move Poles will be looked back on the beginning of him being a good GM. I think he lets the Jones experiment go one more year then will do what's right to correct it if he needs to. What ever OT he brings in will play RT this year and then move to LT next if needed. I think people let their ego get in the way sometimes but Jones was a successful move so far. It still has a year to prove itself. If I remember he was ranked the 19th best OT this year by PFF. Not bad for a 5th round pick. He has a Long way to go but the arrow is pointing up.

[Stinger226]

15 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

 

They tried then but here we are.  They tried a little harder so far this offseason which is inspiring.  All I am saying is you have Justin Fields, make him the priority before he gets injured bad or loses the confidence he has left and you are back to square one.  Hearing Poles is doing it the right way is what we heard with every GM's first year or two since Angelo left.  The Bears might have first dibs on the best offensive lineman in the draft, what is that worth...RT McGlinchey signed 5 yr 87.5 million.  I believe that is the route to go.  Get Fields the pieces now and then they can go all out on D early next year.  Especially if the offense looks special and d is a few pieces away.

I think that is what Poles is doing. He valued McG at a certain value ,over paying for a very average RT is not good long term for a franchise. Its hard for me to be highly critical 2 months into his second season on the job. Tell me what you would had did different is first year?

[BearFan PHX]

51 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Overall I agree with you, best players should be playing.  Both of those projected players we would be lucky to get, and are better than Jones, maybe. 

I think the Jones pick is the signature move Poles will be looked back on the beginning of him being a good GM. I think he lets the Jones experiment go one more year then will do what's right to correct it if he needs to. What ever OT he brings in will play RT this year and then move to LT next if needed. I think people let their ego get in the way sometimes but Jones was a successful move so far. It still has a year to prove itself. If I remember he was ranked the 19th best OT this year by PFF. Not bad for a 5th round pick. He has a Long way to go but the arrow is pointing up.

I have to agree with you. It's possible a rookie OT plays RT this year, and then moves over to LT next year with Jones as the bridge year while the rookie learns. That's a decent roadmap depending on the player, how ambidextrous they are, if they are complete or better at pass protection than run blocking etc etc.

But generically speaking, if we cant afford two OL that are better than Jones this year, I think your scenario is entirely plausible. Jones could also be the one to move to RT, if we only get one starting caliber OT, although I don't think he is particularly "nasty" in the run game.

And we still need some fear inducing studs on the D line too. Seriously, if we can get some pass pressure from the front 4, and keep Justin clean, this team is ready to win now in the other areas. But doing both of those things this year is a tall order.

Cant wait to see how Poles solves this riddle, this year and next.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

18 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I think that is what Poles is doing. He valued McG at a certain value ,over paying for a very average RT is not good long term for a franchise. Its hard for me to be highly critical 2 months into his second season on the job. Tell me what you would had did different is first year?

His first year was dismantling the team and getting the highest draft pick he could.  That is great, now use the resources to give Fields the best opportunity to stay healthy and become a top 5-10 QB.  He got WR help, now give him a strong oline so he can get the ball to the weapons.

2022 free agent:

Dustin Jones DT - big contributor

Byron Pringle WR - gone

Al-Quadin Muhammad DE -gone

Lucas Patrick OG/C - will see?

Nicholas Marrow LB - gone 

Equanimeous St Brown WR - re-signed 

Khari Blasingame FB - re-signed

Dakota Dozier OL gone

Trevor Siemian Qb - gone

Kyler Gordon CB- promising

Jaquan Brisker SS - best pick, probowl? 

Velus Jones WR - up for grabs

Braxton Jones LT - promising

Dominque Robinson DE-developmntal

Zach Thomas OL - gone

Triston Ebner RB - practice squad/goner

Doug Kramer C - developmental?

JayTyre Carter OL- develoomental

Elijah Hicks S - ST/developmental

Trenton Gill P - promising