From Pretenders to Contenders...

[Mongo3451]

Now that most of free agency and the draft is over, our Bears have obviously improved.  What degree will the roster improvement help us? 

Our three win season could be debated that we were better than that, while others may say that we were taken lightly.  So, as water seeks it own level, we sought ours.

In looking at the improvements, the WR room benefited the most, by getting a stud receiver.  Getting Moore places all the others where they belong in the food chain.  In the background, it places greater motivation for Mooney and Claypool to produce. (Especially Claypool because we know how Mooney works)  The LB corps is now one of the best in the league, after being terrible least season.  With adding a bonafide starting guard and a blue chip right tackle, our OL will go from a sieve to a solid unit.  I always caution that continuity takes time.  While that remains true, Jason's mantra states that talent overcomes below average talent and continuity.  This is sort of where we are due to the talent being so poor last year.  Second year in the new scheme for 60% and major talent upgrade for 40% makes for a nice blend.  DT, RB and DB have also improved in starters and depth.

Toward the back third of the season, analysts always ask, who's a pretender and who's a contender?  We are now elevated to pretender mode, which is fantastic.  Next season will be there greater step to contender mode.  Whether we are shooting for NFC North or NFC champ completely depends on Justin.

To get the talent up to where we contend, few more things must occur beyond Justin.  First, we must establish a pass rush.  Next years needs include, a dominant EDGE player and 3T.  The latter may be in house, but the EDGE is obviously not.  The OL needs to be completed by drafting or signing a dominant OC.  Beyond that depth at all five positions needs addressed.  The skill positions need to be strengthened every season to ensure the weapons are present to keep up with the elites.  Adding Marvin Harrison Jr is my goal here.  He is already project to go number 2 next year.  Is he a luxury or a dominant piece that makes us unstoppable?  

Those are my thoughts on where we are and putting us over the top.  I would love to hear yours...

[BearFan PHX]

well said. I agree with all of it, except I think Davis is more than just a starter quality. I think he's gonna be amazing. And with Darnell White next to him, that side of the oline is gonna be NASTY.

Assuming Fields balls out from the pocket, I want WR Marvin Harrison Jr next year. if not, I want QB Caleb Williams.

I want Carolina to be awful this year, so we can be like the Texans were this year and get two top 5 players (with a trade up from our 20th pick!)

We have the horses on Offense now, I want to see us scoring over 24 in every game. If the defensive front holds, we win our share, if they dont, we know where to put some draft picks next year.

My ideal scenario would be for Fields to destroy everyone from the pocket, and for us to draft Harrison Jr and a stud on the DL.

[Mongo3451]

3 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Davis is more than just a starter quality.

I said he's bonafide!  Oh brother where art thou?😂😂😂

[BearFan PHX]

hahahaha

[Stinger226]

What I like is we now have (nasty ) OL with 3 starters. Jenkins, Davis and Wright. They don't want to just block you but destroy you. I think we're in a good spot.

[Mongo3451]

2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

What I like is we now have (nasty ) OL with 3 starters. Jenkins, Davis and Wright. They don't want to just block you but destroy you. I think we're in a good spot.

I love that so much.  It's contagious too.  Pancakes for all!

[AZ54]

3 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

What I like is we now have (nasty ) OL with 3 starters. Jenkins, Davis and Wright. They don't want to just block you but destroy you. I think we're in a good spot.

Missing  is just how good a blocker Braxton Jones was in space last year.  
 

 

[Stinger226]

Jones overall performance was downplayed because he was a 5 th pick but he was ranked the 16 th best OT even thou he had a lot of penalties and sacks. He has a high ceiling. If he was a high pick people would talk better about his progression but he was looked at negatively. Whitehair and Patrick will upgrade OC, average would be a big leap forward over Mustifer last year.

[AZ54]

I don’t think I’ve heard Poles mention Mustipher once all off-season.  

[Mongo3451]

10 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

I don’t think I’ve heard Poles mention Mustipher once all off-season.  

Mustipher is dead to me...lol

[BearFan PHX]

Mustipher isnt even on the team anymore. And GOOD.

I think Poles may be hoping to see what Kramer and Eislen can give him, with Whitehair and possibly Patrick as insurance right now.

Should the right young center become available, I dont think we would hesitate, but for example Wypler was there for the taking for a while, and we must have felt we had similar talent already on the roster. And that may say as much about how they viewed Wypler as it does about being so confident in what we might have here.

[Stinger226]

3 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Mustipher isnt even on the team anymore. And GOOD.

I think Poles may be hoping to see what Kramer and Eislen can give him, with Whitehair and possibly Patrick as insurance right now.

Should the right young center become available, I dont think we would hesitate, but for example Wypler was there for the taking for a while, and we must have felt we had similar talent already on the roster. And that may say as much about how they viewed Wypler as it does about being so confident in what we might have here.

It seems like fans were high on Wypler more than NFL teams were. He was drafted at pick 190.  Kramer was drafted at pick 207. Just shows you draft projections don't matter. Everyone that wanted Wypler already have him on the roster. Doug Kramer.

Only two OCs had draft credible value. Joe Tippmann and JMS.

[BearFan PHX]

54 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

It seems like fans were high on Wypler more than NFL teams were. He was drafted at pick 190.  Kramer was drafted at pick 207. Just shows you draft projections don't matter. Everyone that wanted Wypler already have him on the roster. Doug Kramer.

Only two OCs had draft credible value. Joe Tippmann and JMS.

fans and sportswriters rely too heavily on combine data, because it's almost all we have. That's why you read a million articles about the 2 inches missing from Skoronski's arms etc. It becomes an echo chamber distorting just a few facts.

When you watch tape you get a different idea of who these players are. I watched more tape (not highlights) this year than I ever have, and still, by the end of the first round i was almost out of names. I had never heard of Gervon Dexter. Or for that matter, Roschon Johnson. So I dont know much more than the sportswriters do either. Maybe less.

Unfortunately, that was the surface level our previous administrations seemed to have about the players too, and we drafted one nightmare after another.

Finally we have a coach, GM and President that know what they are doing. They wont hit on every player, but they are making good decisions and seem well prepared.

For example, I think Carter wouldnt have worked out here, and we werent able to get Kancy or Breesee. So instead, we took a "shotgun" approach, drafting three promising players, each with upside and each with concerns. If one of them turns into a stud, it will have been worth it. I wont criticize them for taking one that doesnt work out if another at the same position in the same draft does - that's just smart betting, taking three swings at the ball to increase your chances of hitting a home run.

So if these guys say Wypler wasnt all that, or we already have someone similar, I'm inclined to believe them!

Sure is nice for a change.

[AZ54]

2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

It seems like fans were high on Wypler more than NFL teams were. He was drafted at pick 190.  Kramer was drafted at pick 207. Just shows you draft projections don't matter. Everyone that wanted Wypler already have him on the roster. Doug Kramer.

Only two OCs had draft credible value. Joe Tippmann and JMS.

Tippman was the best non selection Poles made.  I saw it in the highlights I watched but Greg Gabriel said it best: “in one game he was on the ground 15 times. “   Whatever his balance issue is I’m glad it’s not our problem.   

[BearFan PHX]

55 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

Tippman was the best non selection Poles made.  I saw it in the highlights I watched but Greg Gabriel said it best: “in one game he was on the ground 15 times. “   Whatever his balance issue is I’m glad it’s not our problem.   

amen. you cant block anyone from the ground.

[Stinger226]

On 5/4/2023 at 7:06 PM, BearFan PHX said:

amen. you cant block anyone from the ground.

Almost every player has some flaws , where they get drafted speaks to how much coaching can eliminate the flaws. I dont think Tippmann is a day one starter but will be a good player in this league. I just think with so many young players on the OL , Poles fells better about having a vet at OC to go along with Davis for vet leadership. 

Poles thinks Dexter can become Chris Jones or Buckner. A huge man that moves well. Have been reading a lot about Dexter because I didnt like the pick. But one guy broke down the DL of the Florida team and all the DL had more of a set and hold approach over firing off the ball . His production was attributed to not being used right more than having a slow fire off the ball. For me, so far I trust Poles, if he thinks Dexter and Pickens can become good 3 Ts , Im all in until proven different. 

I read a lot of tweets about Dexter in his first practice and most everyone said he appeared quick off the ball. Time will tell what he turns into. 

[adam]

Mustipher played 98.7% of the snaps last year (insane to me).  Of all the FA's still available, no one played more snaps than Mustipher last year. I know there was a lot of injuries, but it is hard to believe that guy is 330 lbs, he was getting run over by CBs.

[Stinger226]

He wasn't very good but you have to give him credit for starting all those games for an UDFA. Started at 303 and worked his way to 330. 

 

[Stinger226]

I've been watching a lot of podcasts talking about the future of the Bears. 

I watched an interview with the Florida line coach on CHGO. His opinions have raised my level of trust in Dexter going forward.  Huge man , good movement, great work ethic. The scheme at Florida was a read and move which affected his production. Plus, they had a lack of depth where he virtually had to play every snap on defense. He wore down as the game went forward. He  was playing 55-60 plays a game. In the NFL he will be expected to play 40 in rotation. Has to get in better shape and more strength and he will be a beast.  His metrics mirror Cris Jones as a prospect. If he is 85% of Cris Jones, Poles nailed it. 

Also lots of football experts (self called) think Fields will have a break out year compared to Josh Allen's 3 year. 

16

572

396

69.2

4544

7.9

55

37

10

 

If Fields goes 4000 yds, 30 TDs and 10 ints, we will be making the playoffs. Buffalo has always been a good running team and still was able to get Allen reps passing. I think this years offense can contribute the same kind of production. Their offense took off when they acquired Stephon Diggs. We now have D J Moore. Not as good as Diggs but our other WRs are better than what Buffalo had. Have yet to see the production but I think our OL has become a strength instead of our worst position group. We have upgraded 4 positions. Jones will play better, he has been working on improving his strength. Jenkins moves to LG which will yield better play than Whitehair did last year. Whitehair moves to OC that improves Mustifers play by leaps and bounds. Davis is the best player on the line. Wright will be a plug and play and will greatly be better than Reiff gave us. We were the best running team in the league last year and I think this RB room is much better. I think Foreman will start and be a stud , I think Johnson pushes Herbert for more playing time because he is a more complete player. I think because of Johnson's talent, he will move Homer off the roster. Although Homer is a stud ST player which may keep him on the roster. We now have more depth at TE. Last year a lot of our ragged play was due to having poor depth players taking to many snaps. We will not have that problem this year. 

[AZ54]

I'd like to see a 300yd game or two before even remotely thinking about a 4000 yd season from Fields. 

The RB room is tough.  Herbert has some value as a KR which Foreman does not.  Beyond that Johnson and Homer both have more special teams value than Herbert and both can pass block and catch out of the backfield better.   On game day you want your RB depth capable of as much special teams as possible plus with those two offering more 3rd down value than Herbert.   A lot depends on how quickly Roschon gets up to speed but Herbert is battling with Foreman for the same role.    

[adam]

5 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I've been watching a lot of podcasts talking about the future of the Bears. 

I watched an interview with the Florida line coach on CHGO. His opinions have raised my level of trust in Dexter going forward.  Huge man , good movement, great work ethic. The scheme at Florida was a read and move which affected his production. Plus, they had a lack of depth where he virtually had to play every snap on defense. He wore down as the game went forward. He  was playing 55-60 plays a game. In the NFL he will be expected to play 40 in rotation. Has to get in better shape and more strength and he will be a beast.  His metrics mirror Cris Jones as a prospect. If he is 85% of Cris Jones, Poles nailed it. 

Also lots of football experts (self called) think Fields will have a break out year compared to Josh Allen's 3 year. 

16

572

396

69.2

4544

7.9

55

37

10

 

If Fields goes 4000 yds, 30 TDs and 10 ints, we will be making the playoffs. Buffalo has always been a good running team and still was able to get Allen reps passing. I think this years offense can contribute the same kind of production. Their offense took off when they acquired Stephon Diggs. We now have D J Moore. Not as good as Diggs but our other WRs are better than what Buffalo had. Have yet to see the production but I think our OL has become a strength instead of our worst position group. We have upgraded 4 positions. Jones will play better, he has been working on improving his strength. Jenkins moves to LG which will yield better play than Whitehair did last year. Whitehair moves to OC that improves Mustifers play by leaps and bounds. Davis is the best player on the line. Wright will be a plug and play and will greatly be better than Reiff gave us. We were the best running team in the league last year and I think this RB room is much better. I think Foreman will start and be a stud , I think Johnson pushes Herbert for more playing time because he is a more complete player. I think because of Johnson's talent, he will move Homer off the roster. Although Homer is a stud ST player which may keep him on the roster. We now have more depth at TE. Last year a lot of our ragged play was due to having poor depth players taking to many snaps. We will not have that problem this year. 

My thought process is plugging Moore's career average stats in at the top, then bumping every else down, so his career averages 77-1105-6 would go on top and the guys at the bottom would drop off (ISM, Webster, Harry, Pringle). When you add a full year of Mooney (70-850-4), Claypool (65-800-5), and Kmet (55-575-5) back into those numbers, that is already 3330 yards and 20 TDs. Then you add WR4-6, TE2, and RB1-3 and you easily have 3800 yds and 26 TDs. This does not take into account any player being better than their career averages.  So 3800 passing yards, 26 TDs, 10 INTs, 800 rushing yards, 5 TDs seems like a very reasonable target. My guess is he will be plus or minus 10% of those value next year (so as low as 3400, 23 TDs and as high as 4200 yds and 30 TDs).
 

[adam]

As much as we want Fields to break NFL passing records, I don't think he will ever get to that point. As a passer, I think his ceiling is more top 10 than top 5. As a runner, #1, so as a QB top 5 for sure, but that takes into account his legs. 

[Stinger226]

He's not going to be a record setting QB by NFL standards but will reset all the Bears records. I have no doubt.

[Stinger226]

Heard an interview of Poles on the SCORE today and when talking about edge rushes (he) brought up about trading for a pass rusher. Who do you think he's talking about? I doubt if its Chase Young because of his injury history and 15 mil due this year. So who might it be?

[Mongo3451]

2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Heard an interview of Poles on the SCORE today and when talking about edge rushes (he) brought up about trading for a pass rusher. Who do you think he's talking about? I doubt if its Chase Young because of his injury history and 15 mil due this year. So who might it be?

Chase Young.  The sticking point is that they want a first rounder.  Rumor also has it that they don't like how he rehabbed and both sides are a little butthurt over it.  Poles would probably send them a second round pick and have him on a prove it year.  After that, they would control his rights with the tag.