Bears Power Rankings and Point Spreads

[jason]

We all see the Power Rankings year after year and think the media hates the Bears. I honestly think there is a bias because of the rug-burned knees while covering Farv and Erin for the past 20+ years.  While the Power Rankings this year don't seem to tell a different tale, the point spreads do.

Bears 2023 Schedule ATS

Week 1: Packers at Bears -2.5

Week 2: Bears -1 at Buccaneers

Week 3: Bears at Chiefs -9.5

Week 4: Broncos -1 at Bears

Week 5: Bears at Commanders -1

Week 6: Vikings at Bears (Pick em)

Week 7: Raiders at Bears -1.5

Week 8: Bears at Chargers -4.5

Week 9: Bears at Saints -3

Week 10: Panthers at Bears -2.5

Week 11: Bears at Lions -4.5

Week 12: Bears at Vikings -3

Week 13: bye week

Week 14: Lions -1 at Bears

Week 15: Bears at Browns -3

Week 16: Cardinals at Bears -5

Week 17: Falcons at Bears -2.5

Week 18: Bears at Packers NL

There are four games with a larger point spread than a field goal. FOUR. And one of those games the Bears are favored!!

Vegas is right more often than the pundits are; otherwise, there wouldn't be multi-billion dollar operations in the Vegas desert. And the point spreads say this is an extremely unknown year for the Bears. According to the spread, the Bears could conceivably go 14-3. Of course, the inverse is true as well. One additional tidbit I found interesting is that the 2023 media darlings, the Detroit Lions, the team that's supposed to shock the world and win the North, is only favored by 4.5 at home and 1 in Chicago. If they're so good, the point spreads would say as much. 

All that said, there is a good chance the point spreads hold relatively true. Chalk is 7 wins counting the Vikings pick'em and Packers NL. Flip the Broncos, Commanders, and Lions games with a +1 point spread for the Bears, and we're suddenly at 10 wins. I don't see that as implausible. In fact, I think flipping a few more is conceivable, especially considering how unlucky the teams was on close games last year.

Final verdict: Bears go 10-7 and shock the world.

[BearFan PHX]

God point Jason - Vegas is seldom that far off, and we are gonna be in a lot of games.

I think we go somewhere between 7-10 and 10-7, and given that the arrow is pointing up for us and we are ascending, I think it will be on the better side of that - just sniffing around 9 or 10 wins and a possible brief playoff appearance. Although with a slow start it could be 7 or 8 wins too.

Anyway, I think you have it right.

[Mongo3451]

One point to ponder is that Vegas factors in where the betting money is coming from and who the betting is on.  With that being said, I think we'll see most of these games move a point or two.

[Stinger226]

PFF put out their OL rankings for 2023. We are down 7 spots from the end of last year. Final rankings had us 14th and now we are 21st. They claim Whitehair as its best lineman. 4 new spots and they rate 2 OGs in the top 10 and we are 21st. I just cant figure out PFF. More for having us ranked 14 last yr instead of what they have this yr.

[BearFan PHX]

37 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

PFF put out their OL rankings for 2023. We are down 7 spots from the end of last year. Final rankings had us 14th and now we are 21st. They claim Whitehair as its best lineman. 4 new spots and they rate 2 OGs in the top 10 and we are 21st. I just cant figure out PFF. More for having us ranked 14 last yr instead of what they have this yr.

This is why PFF is a joke. Whitehair is our best lineman? I cant see how any human being watching tape would think that. That HAS to be a well meaning but deeply flawed algorithm - and thats really what PFF is - they create these analytical tools, and if the tools spit out results like that, theyre broken.

[AZ54]

Just curious, does anyone know what % of NFL games are decided by 3pts or less?  

[Mongo3451]

39 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

Just curious, does anyone know what % of NFL games are decided by 3pts or less?  

35%

[BearFan PHX]

tells you what a big deal home field advantage is, since Vegas gives you 3 points for being at home.

[adam]

The Chargers and Lions on the road is pretty shocking to be honest. 4.5 seems low for those two teams against the Bears. Even 6 (still under a TD) would seem more on point.

To me, KC is really the only game that is a guaranteed loss. That would be an upset of epic proportions, but being in Week 3, anything is possible.

For the Division, I feel like the Bears will go 4-2 with some combo of sweeping one team and splitting with the 2 others. They are favored in 5 non-division games, so that is 9 wins, not counting potential wins against DEN, NO, WAS, and CLE. It is hard for me to see the Bears losing to all 4 of those teams. So just say they win 1 out of those 4 where they are the underdog, like Jason said, 10 wins is there, and it really is not that far of a reach. 

On the flip side, if they only split the division, don't win any of those 4 and lose a 1 non-division game they are favored in (TB, LVR, CAR, ARZ, ATL), they finish 7-10. 

So 7-10 wins seems like the range. If 7.5 is the over/under, the over seems like a very solid bet.