Playoff Chances (Lol)

[adam]

Yes, there is still a chance. It is basically win out or nothing. The Bears have to leapfrog 5 of these 6 teams: SEA, MIN, GB, LAR, NO, TB. Based on projections, all of them could finish 8-9. So if the Bears finished 8-9, they would have to win a bunch of tiebreakers with 5 of those teams which is extremely unlikely.

So chances of making the playoffs going 4-1 and finishing 8-9 are probably around 10% (if that one loss is to CLE). Now if the win out and finish 9-8, there is probably a 75% chance they make the playoffs. 

• ATL is currently a division leader and plays TB, CHI, and NO from the in the hunt teams. If Bears win out, they are beating ATL which would give them the H2H tiebreaker. It is better for the Bears to have NO win the division.  Proj: 8-9/6-6 (Week 18 @ NO is basically a Division Championship Game, winner is the #4 seed, loser goes home)
• SEA is currently the #6 seed and has to play DAL, SF, and PHI in the next 3 weeks, so they may be 6-8 in a few weeks. They have the toughest road. Owns Common Tiebreaker against the Bears. Proj: 8-9/6-6
• MIN is currently the #7 seed and on a bye. They play GB from the in the hunt teams and get DET twice in 3 weeks. Losing to DET twice or losing to DET once and also losing to LVR would give Bears the common tiebreaker.  Proj: 8-9/7-5 Good Conf record 
• GB is currently the #8 seed and play KC this weekend. They play TB, MIN, and CHI from the in the hunt teams. The Bears would have the common tiebreaker with GB.  Proj: 8-9/7-5 Good Conf record (GB @ MIN in Week 17 followed by CHI @ GB Week 18 will decide the playoff fate for a lot of teams)
• LAR is currently the #9 seed and only play NO from the in the hunt teams. They also play CLE, BAL, and SF. 2nd toughest schedule. The Bears would have the Common Tiebreaker % over the Rams. Proj: 8-9/6-6
• NO is currently the #10 seed but also fighting ATL for the division title. They finish with LAR, TB, and ATL, and their next game is DET. Owns H2H tiebreaker with Bears. Proj: 8-9/5-7 (bad Conf record forces them to win Division)
• TB is currently the #11 seed and play ATL, GB, and NO from the in the hunt teams. They also play CAR twice. They have the easiest schedule. Owns H2H tiebreaker with Bears. Proj: 8-9/7-5 Good Conf record
• CHI is currently the #12 seed and plays ATL and GB from the in the hunt teams. Regardless of anything else, they have to win out to get into the playoffs at 9-8. Based on the other teams schedules, it is highly unlikely that 2 of the WC seeded teams get to 9 wins, and even if they did, there is a good chance Chicago could win at least one tie breaker (H2H, Conf, Common) - Proj: 9-8/7-5 Good Conf record or 8-9/7-5 Good Conf record (CLE loss) or 8-9/6-6 (CLE win).

BLUF: If the Bears go 4-1 and lose to an NFC Team, they are out. If the Bears win out they have a great chance at making the playoffs. If they go 4-1 and lose to CLE, they still have some tiebreaker chances.

[Bears4Ever_34]

It's crazy to think if the Bears defense didn't choke away the DET and DEN games, they'd be 6-6 and sitting in good position for that wildcard spot. 

Obviously it's not going to happen, but all 5 of their remaining games are reasonably winnable. DET is floundering and a team you nearly beat a weak ago on the road, CLE is down to their 4th quarterback option, Desmond Ridder sucks, Arizona is clearly aiming for the #1 pick, and Jordan Love isn't very good, either.

If they had a better coach, one could argue they should win at least 4 out of 5. However, I still think they'll end up only beating AZ and maybe ATL to finish 5-12/6-11. Hard to see Goff turning the ball over 3 times next week, CLE's defense will run circles around Luke Getsy, and the Bears never beat the Packers no matter who's playing quarterback, so that's always a loss until further notice..

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, adam said:

BLUF: If the Bears go 4-1 and lose to an NFC Team, they are out. If the Bears win out they have a great chance at making the playoffs. If they go 4-1 and lose to CLE, they still have some tiebreaker chances.

BLUF to your BLUF (with a side of another LOL):  If the Bears make the playoffs all this talk of whether Flus, Fields and maybe Getsy leave at the end of the season goes out the window.  😎

[Mongo3451]

7 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

BLUF to your BLUF (with a side of another LOL):  If the Bears make the playoffs all this talk of whether Flus, Fields and maybe Getsy leave at the end of the season goes out the window.  😎

Good one!  After all we have pontificated, someone has to go!  I don't care if it's a ball boy...🤪

[BearFan PHX]

 

[Stinger226]

Adam is a stats guy and a big IF we win out, its a math thing. . If we end up with 7 wins I would be over joyed, that is what progress is. Even last year I always rooted for us to when every game, after we would lose, I would say at least we have a chance at the first  pick. I never root for us to lose. I can always find something positive to say about our chances, but the Bears seem to always find stupid reasons why they lose. hard to not think about that.

[adam]

4 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Adam is a stats guy and a big IF we win out, its a math thing. . If we end up with 7 wins I would be over joyed, that is what progress is. Even last year I always rooted for us to when every game, after we would lose, I would say at least we have a chance at the first  pick. I never root for us to lose. I can always find something positive to say about our chances, but the Bears seem to always find stupid reasons why they lose. hard to not think about that.

At this point, 7 wins has to be seen as a success because that would mean you went 7-6 for the final 13 games after starting 0-4. 7 wins would obviously be 4 more than last year, so more than doubling your win total is tough in this league. 

[adam]

3 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

BLUF to your BLUF (with a side of another LOL):  If the Bears make the playoffs all this talk of whether Flus, Fields and maybe Getsy leave at the end of the season goes out the window.  😎

If we win out and make the playoffs, Getsy may get some HC interviews because that would be an epic turnaround.

[Stinger226]

25 minutes ago, adam said:

If we win out and make the playoffs, Getsy may get some HC interviews because that would be an epic turnaround.

We could only pray for that. 

[adam]

Seattle lost to Dallas on TNF to fall to 6-6 and now in the 7th seed, MIN moves up to the 6th seed based on tie breakers. So both the 6th and 7th seeds are now 6-6, and the Bears at 4-8 with 5 games remaining. Seattle now has to play SF and PHI in the next two weeks. Like I said above, they will more than likely be 6-8 after that week. With 2 wins after the bye, the Bears could be tied with them at 6-8, which would've been unfathomable 3 weeks ago when SEA was 6-3 and the Bears were 2-7 with Bagent at QB.

Due to the playoff implications, a home game, division opponent, the ending of the last time they played, and a bye, this Detroit game coming up may be the most important game for Flus, Getsy, and Fields, and one of the most impactful for the franchise in the last few years.

[adam]

There are only two viable playoff scenarios, win-out, which actually gives the Bears a great chance of making the playoffs. The only way 9-8 doesn't make it is if two of the teams (MIN, SEA, GB, LAR, TB, and ATL or NO) get hot and wins games they are not expected to win. 

ATL, NO, and TB are all in a race for the Division, and the odds are that the Div Champ will be the only team to make it from that division. That leaves MIN, SEA, GB, and LAR. SEA has a brutal schedule and may not survive the next few games. LAR has the 2nd toughest schedule and the Bears own a tie-breaker against them. So unless either of those teams go completely against what they have been doing, they may not be a concern come Week 18

So it seems that the playoffs are really going to come down to MIN and GB for the Bears.

MIN has DET,GB, DET to finish their season. If DET can beat MIN twice, then the GB game might not even matter.

GB basically starts their own playoffs Week 17 against MIN, then Week 18 against the Bears. They will more than likely go into Week 17 at 8-7 assuming they beat TB. If they beat TB they have to split MIN/CHI. If they lose to TB, they need to win their last 2 against MIN and CHI.

If the Bears can get to Week 18 no worse than 7-9, there is a chance they could still get in with a win against GB. Obviously going in at 8-8 would be optimal, but anything less than 7-9, and this game will have a lot less meaning because more than likely GB will still be in the playoff picture as well.

 

[adam]

Last 6 + Streak + QB:

MIN 4-2 (L2) - Dobbs
GB 3-3 (W2) - Love
LAR 3-3 (W2) - Stafford
CHI 3-3 (W1) - Fields
ATL 2-4 (W1) - Ridder
SEA 2-4 (L3) - Smith
NO 2-4 (L3) - Carr
TB 1-5 (L2) - Mayfield

Outside of Stafford, do any of the other QBs scare you?

[adam]

That GB win was unexpected against KC, and that win really puts them in a good position to make the playoffs. That also makes it much tougher for the Bears slim playoff hopes. They now need to still leapfrog MIN, LAR, SEA, TB, and NO/ATL. Before there were options, now all those teams need to lose games they are expected to win AND the Bears need to win out.

In Week 14, we can expect SEA to lose to SF, and LAR to lose to BAL. That's a good start. Then TB plays ATL, so one of them will lose. That is 3 out of 4, and MIN plays LVR. We need to be big LVR fans this upcoming week.

I was interested to see what game outcome combinations would need to occur for the Bears to make the playoffs at 9-8 and even 8-9. 

To make the playoffs at 9-8, the Bears need NO to beat LAR in Week 16. The Bears also need MIN to lose to DET/GB/DET.  In Week 18, if ATL beats NO, they would be 10-7 and win the division. If NO wins both teams would be 9-8 and 6-6 in the conference, so CHI would beat both of them making that game irrelevant for the Bears at 9-8/7-5.

For the Bears to make the playoffs at 8-9 (losing only to CLE), they would also need TB to beat NO in Week 17 (to prevent NO from getting to 9 wins) and SEA would need to lose to either TEN or PIT (to not get 9 wins). These are the unexpected outcomes. In the case of 8-9, they would prefer ATL wins the division and beats both TB (Wk14) and NO (Wk18). 

The grid below shows that outcome (green=win, red=loss, blue=win as underdog, yellow=deciding grid game, orange=lose as favorite):

Thoughts? It is crazy that there is a realistic viable path to the playoffs at 8-9 as long as the loss is to CLE. There are really only 2 unexpected outcomes that need to occur, and they are not that far fetched (TB beats NO in Wk 17 and SEA loses to either TEN or PIT.) If everything else occurs as displayed, they get in at 8-9 with a 7-5 conf record which is the tie breaker that allows them to leapfrog the other 8-9 teams.

9-8 is much better, but they still need help from NO beating LAR in Week 16 and ensuring ATL beats NO in Week 18 (which they should).

Any loss other than CLE ends the Bears playoff hopes. There are no scenarios where they get in at 8-9 with a 6-6 conference record. 

[Stinger226]

Next  week will be key. Arguably the best team we play and then it's one game at a time. It's strange that we could even be talking about this after a 0-4 start. If we finish 8-9 or 9-8, the whole narrative about changing coaches and QB will change. That would mean both did something special. 

[adam]

11 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Next  week will be key. Arguably the best team we play and then it's one game at a time. It's strange that we could even be talking about this after a 0-4 start. If we finish 8-9 or 9-8, the whole narrative about changing coaches and QB will change. That would mean both did something special. 

It would be very similar to what both DET and JAX did last season.

DET started 1-6, then went 8-2 the last 10. The Bears started 2-5 and would need to got 7-3 to match that. They are currently 2-3 and need 5 more wins. 

JAX started 2-6, and finished 7-2. The Bears also started 2-6, and are currently 2-2 in their first 4 and need to go 5-0 to match them as well. JAX had a 5-game win streak to end the season. 

 

It would hard to move on from that type of finish. That would mean both the offense and defense were cooking. 

[adam]

On 12/4/2023 at 8:15 AM, adam said:

 

 

With the Bears huge win, division and conference. They inch closer to the field with a few losses from this group.

OK, TB actually beat ATL, both teams 6-7 now. LAR is battling BAL, NO beat CAR as expected, now also 6-7.

Now we need a LVR win this afternoon, and we need SF to beat SEA as well. That would make a 6 team tie at 6-7. 

[adam]

The Bears still need to win out to have a great chance at the playoffs. An LVR win would be huge against MIN.

Week 16 NO vs LAR and Week 17 TB vs NO, then Week 18 NO vs ATL are 3 huge games in the conference. 

With a win next week, the Bears can gain a game against two teams, then in Week 16, it could be 4. If they can get to 8-8 in Week 17, they could be in a 4-way tie for the WC3 slot with one to play. Then Week 18 is CHI vs GB, MIN vs DET, ATL vs NO, LAR vs SF, and NO vs ATL. The NO vs ATL would decide the Division. Head to head and Conference record is going to be huge.

[Stinger226]

It's a long shot, but strange things happen in the NFL.

[adam]

15 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

It's a long shot, but strange things happen in the NFL.

If the Bears win out, it will be similar to what the Jaguars did last year. The Bears really only need a little help which may play out normally. They don't need any crazy upsets to make it. 

With 4 games left and a bunch of teams at 6-7, they would naturally go 2-2 and finish 8-9. 

Right now GB, MIN, and SEA have a slight edge, but 2 can make it. So the Bears need 2 of those teams to end up going 2-3. SEA can actually go 3-2 as long as they lose their next 2 conference games. 

MIN would have to go 3-2 against LVR, CIN, DET, GB, DET with at least one win against DET/MIN/DET. So if they finish 2-3, they are out (if Bears win out).

[BearFan PHX]

IF the Bears win out AND WIN a playoff game, which I believe is "possible" if Fields makes reads, then I suppose that Fields and Eberflus could be back.

Depending on how all that looked, I might even be willing to say I was premature in judging Fields and Eberflus. If they win, rather than lucking into wins for example.

Now I wouldnt bet on this, but I'll say it as a goal. If they can do that, then obviously they would have become a team above what I thought was possible based on the previous data.

I fully admit that Justin made about 5 throws today in rhythm that are what I've been wanting to see. If he was doing that every week all season long, my evaluation of him would be very different. I am cynical that it will become the norm, but that's a guess, I have no crystal ball.

If that all happens, again by effort not luck, then I will be on the bandwagon.

I do think the defensive roster has the opportunity to be good enough to do that. But I've always believed in them.

I still think with a different DC, the defense would look even better. I am very excited for next year. Of course I mean with a new QB and Head Coach, but to be fair, if they run the table, then Fields and Eberfuls WILL be a new head coach and QB from what we've seen previously.

I will also say that winning coach or GM of the year in your first year is more hype than winning it later after you built something (looking at you Nagy and Pace). If Eberflus can keep the team and win big next year, I think he'd be a candidate for coach of the year.

I guess what Im basically saying is that i think thy had zero chance of doing that, and now they turned it around by about an inch. If that continues, it will be an amazing turnaround, more that i think is possible. I still think it wont happen. I see us winning maybe 2 more games this year. And that wouldnt be enough in my eyes, depending of course on how it occurred.

For example, the Minnesota game counts as a W in the standings, but to me it was a loss. This game today was definitely a win. We took that game and controlled it. A lot on defense.

Anyway, I hope that all happens. And Id be on the bandwagon then, but not if a little taste of it happens, but not consistently. Fair?

[Stinger226]

With the Bears losing so much over the last 2 yrs, its hard to stay excited but they have now won 2 in a row over winning teams. As the season plays out we will know what this team is, if they win 3-4 games , that's 8-9 wins, that's a team getting better. That means Poles plan is working. Odds of him moving on from that are slim.  If he works his magic with the first pick again we could add 4 or 5 blue chip players to this team. Our future is bright. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

7 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

I fully admit that Justin made about 5 throws today in rhythm that are what I've been wanting to see. If he was doing that every week all season long, my evaluation of him would be very different.

It seemed to me the offense and Justin made adjustments after the half.  Was it because of his shoulder bothering him?  I noticed there were an uptick of short route plays and he was hitting those reads more than he wasn’t. Was it Getsy or Justin?  Hard to say exactly . As the game wore on he was able to pitch it a bit deeper but for a good piece of the third quarter he was playing really solid.  

[BearFan PHX]

11 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

It seemed to me the offense and Justin made adjustments after the half.  Was it because of his shoulder bothering him?  I noticed there were an uptick of short route plays and he was hitting those reads more than he wasn’t. Was it Getsy or Justin?  Hard to say exactly . As the game wore on he was able to pitch it a bit deeper but for a good piece of the third quarter he was playing really solid.  

I had really never seen him read and throw on time before. Its a small sample - Im FAR from convinced, but it was a flash, and thats good.

[adam]

Other teams upcoming games:

• MIN is now 7-6 and holds the 6th seed, they play CIN (7-6) in CIN next weekend. Browning vs Dobbs. I think CIN wins this one, MIN to (7-7).
• GB is 6-6 and currently in the 7th seed, they play NYG (4-8) tonight, then on a shorter week play TB (6-7) at home next weekend. I am hoping for them to split (7-7).
• TB is 6-7, currently 1st in the Division, and plays GB (6-6) next weekend. I am picking them to win on a short week for GB (7-7).
• LAR is 6-7, and plays WAS (4-9), next weekend. I expect LAR to win (7-7).
• ATL is 6-7, and plays CAR (1-12), next weekend. I expect ATL to win (7-7), sends CAR to 1-13 for Tankathon.
• NO is 6-7, and plays NYG (4-8), next weekend. I expect NO to win (7-7). 

If GB beats NYG and loses to TB, 6 teams will be tied at 7-7 after next week, and the Bears could potentially be 6-8 (1 game back) with 3 to play, with head to head games against GB and ATL left. 

[adam]

That NYG win was huge for the Bears (and MIN). 

Now GB is in the 7th seed as a 6-7 team, tied with 4 other teams, while the Bears are 5-8, one game back. 

What I have not seen anyone talk about yet is, if the Bears slide into the playoffs as the #7 seed, they would play the NFC South DIV Champ (TB, ATL, or NO). That is a winnable game and would be played in a dome or in TB. 

So if the Bears do run the table, they actually have a favorable playoff matchup in the WC round. The most hilarious part is whoever gets the #6 Seed would have to play in Dallas, ouch. So the better seed gets totally punished which is kind of funny. I really wonder if teams will consider that come Week 18.