The Chicago Bears are on the clock! OFFSEASON OPEN THREAD!

[AZ54]

56 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

I think this is just writers speculating because the Bears brought him in for a 30 visit.

Maybe they really are interested, I dont know, but i dont think these articles have any inside info, just connecting dots we already knew.

If the Bears have too much money invested in Kmet right now to take on another TE1, they might well be meeting him because he would be an excellent trade or free agency target in the future, so good to make connections and start the book on him now?

No matter what, Odunze and Bowers are both big time talents, and someone will take them each early. And each of them would look great in a Bears uniform.

True.  They do say if we go pass catcher at 9.  
 

also true the only value at 9 would be Odunze or Bowers.   
 

really easy for a writer to throw that out there.  

[BearFan PHX]

1 minute ago, AZ54 said:

True.  They do say if we go pass catcher at 9.  
 

also true the only value at 9 would be Odunze or Bowers.   
 

really easy for a writer to throw that out there.  

yeah, and it doesnt make it any more (or less!) true.

I'm trying to figure out if Fashanu or Thomas are true top 10 type values. I think they might be.

I'm less sure of the DEs. Does anyone know what the DE depth looks like for the 2025 draft?

edit - looks to be a DE and WR heavy class. Hmmmm.

[killakrzydav]

Pretty trash journalism in retrospect. 

[adam]

On 4/14/2024 at 6:58 PM, BearFan PHX said:

for sure if our scouts are telling Poles that, and that's what he's seeing, then for sure. No reason to trade up.

But *IF* you think he's the next coming, and head and shoulders above the others, if you think you've got Randy Moss here, I think you do it.

Personally, I haven't seen enough film on them to know either way. I know they are all good.

I am sure this is the same for other positions, but the top drafted guys rarely win or make it to the SB (for elite WRs). Hopefully DJ Moore can beat that trend. 

Aiyuk was a 1st rounder and last one to make a SB, but for some reason he disappears in the post season. In 9 career post season games his most receptions are 5, most yards 73, and he only has 1 TD in those 9 games. 

[Stinger226]

It seems pretty clear that after 2 drafts, no one knows what Poles thinks . It's always speculation. Bowers is a top 10 talent, so BPA would apply to him. 

Seen a video with Rick Speilman, former GM and his top 5 was 3 QBs and 2 WRs . He thinks Williams is generational and also that Drake Maye and Daniels are going to be good QBs so because of importance of position listed them top 5. listening to him, he's a very smart guy. He has us take Dallas Turner but said we are trying to trade back. One scenario was with 14- NO for got pick 14-40-155 for 9. He has  us take Brandon Dorlus/ DE at 75. 

 

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, adam said:

I am sure this is the same for other positions, but the top drafted guys rarely win or make it to the SB (for elite WRs). Hopefully DJ Moore can beat that trend. 

Aiyuk was a 1st rounder and last one to make a SB, but for some reason he disappears in the post season. In 9 career post season games his most receptions are 5, most yards 73, and he only has 1 TD in those 9 games. 

I think it's hard to say that a lower picked WR has a better chance of going to a superbowl based on talent, i think it's more likely that the top picking teams just dont have the roster to go to the superbowl?

 

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

I think it's hard to say that a lower picked WR has a better chance of going to a superbowl based on talent, i think it's more likely that the top picking teams just dont have the roster to go to the superbowl?

 

Read where top  10 highest paid WRs, only one was a first round pick and that was at pick 23. Tone of examples of lower round WRs becoming studs. Last year Puka and Dell were good examples.

[BearFan PHX]

Of the top 10 WRs in the league (according to Pro Football Network)

4 are first rounders
3 are second rounders
1 is a 4th rounder
2 are 5th rounders

Clearly, the better players are more often picked higher, which would actually be really surprising if it wasn't true.

Justin Jefferson           22nd overall (1st round)
Tyreek Hill                  5th round
Cee Cee Lamb             17th overall (1st round)
Davante Adams          53rd overall (2nd round)
Ja'Marr Chase             5th overall (1st round)
AJ Brown                     51st overall (2nd round)
Amon-Ra St Brown     4th round
Brandon Aiyuk             25th overall (1st round)
Stefon Diggs                5th round
Deebo Samuel            36th overall (2nd round)

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/best-wide-receivers-nfl-rankings/

[Mongo3451]

Historically, the higher the pick, the better chance of success.  OL happens to be the king of that stat...

[BearFan PHX]

6 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Historically, the higher the pick, the better chance of success.  OL happens to be the king of that stat...

it's funny that people think it isnt so - obviously the players the professionals believe in most are picked first, and sure they get it wrong sometimes, but its not totally random.

And yeah, 1st round OL is usually predictable (cough stan thomas, gabe carimi, chris williams, marc columbo) boy have we been bad at drafting players before Poles got here. And youre right about OL, we've just been terrible at it. The Darnell Wright pick tells me Poles understands OL eval.

[Stinger226]

7 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Of the top 10 WRs in the league (according to Pro Football Network)

4 are first rounders
3 are second rounders
1 is a 4th rounder
2 are 5th rounders

Clearly, the better players are more often picked higher, which would actually be really surprising if it wasn't true.

Justin Jefferson           22nd overall (1st round)
Tyreek Hill                  5th round
Cee Cee Lamb             17th overall (1st round)
Davante Adams          53rd overall (2nd round)
Ja'Marr Chase             5th overall (1st round)
AJ Brown                     51st overall (2nd round)
Amon-Ra St Brown     4th round
Brandon Aiyuk             25th overall (1st round)
Stefon Diggs                5th round
Deebo Samuel            36th overall (2nd round)

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/best-wide-receivers-nfl-rankings/

Obviously you have higher percentage the  earlier you pick. But you showed exactly my point, only 4 of 10 were picked in the first round and only one was a top ten pick. The higher the pick , the higher the risk. 

Only one of the 10 highest paid WRs was a first round pick.

Much rather take OL or DL high, better percentage of hits.

 

[adam]

8 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Of the top 10 WRs in the league (according to Pro Football Network)

4 are first rounders
3 are second rounders
1 is a 4th rounder
2 are 5th rounders

Clearly, the better players are more often picked higher, which would actually be really surprising if it wasn't true.

Justin Jefferson           22nd overall (1st round)
Tyreek Hill                  5th round
Cee Cee Lamb             17th overall (1st round)
Davante Adams          53rd overall (2nd round)
Ja'Marr Chase             5th overall (1st round)
AJ Brown                     51st overall (2nd round)
Amon-Ra St Brown     4th round
Brandon Aiyuk             25th overall (1st round)
Stefon Diggs                5th round
Deebo Samuel            36th overall (2nd round)

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/best-wide-receivers-nfl-rankings/

Interesting that only Chase was selected in the top 15, and only 2 in the top 20. 

It's obvious that players selected earlier are normally on worse teams, but it sort of speaks to the value of the pick compared to the overall success of the team. After QB, it feels like the trenches should be the only other picks used in the top 10, outside of generational guys like MHJ. Even then, just say MHJ goes to NE. What are the odds they are good in the next 5 years, potentially longer?

[adam]

Just an interesting way to look at it, but if you think about it, players going to 8-10 teams have no realistic shot at a Super Bowl in their first contracts, maybe even their careers, just by being picked by the wrong team. That has to be depressing. You work your butt off for 20+ years to end up with the worst company in your sector, and you are stuck there at least 4-5 years. 

[Stinger226]

54 minutes ago, adam said:

Interesting that only Chase was selected in the top 15, and only 2 in the top 20. 

It's obvious that players selected earlier are normally on worse teams, but it sort of speaks to the value of the pick compared to the overall success of the team. After QB, it feels like the trenches should be the only other picks used in the top 10, outside of generational guys like MHJ. Even then, just say MHJ goes to NE. What are the odds they are good in the next 5 years, potentially longer?

This year is an exception, there are 3 top 10 WRs, I think they  all will be successful. Adam , you're right about most go to bad teams and harder for them to succeed. This year that will be  a little different. Bears, Chargers, are upstart teams that may take a WR. 

I think if any of the top 3 are there, Poles will take them. If not he moves bark a little bit and takes a DL. The outlier will be Brian Bowers or JPJ with a move back.

[AZ54]

6 hours ago, adam said:

Just an interesting way to look at it, but if you think about it, players going to 8-10 teams have no realistic shot at a Super Bowl in their first contracts, maybe even their careers, just by being picked by the wrong team. That has to be depressing. You work your butt off for 20+ years to end up with the worst company in your sector, and you are stuck there at least 4-5 years. 

I don’t buy that argument.   I’d buy the crappy GM drafted you argument better.   Even teams with bad QBs always can find decent options to pair with a good roster.  It might take a year or three to get that FA QB but in the meantime you’re building everywhere else on the roster.   Derek Carr.   Cousins.   Just look at what Shanahan has done with cast off QBs.   That includes Purdy because nobody wanted him.  If a GM is doing their job right you should be on a competitive roster in year 3.  Year 4 at the latest.   

[killakrzydav]

 

[killakrzydav]

https://atozsports.com/chicago/bears-draft-targets-2024-nfl-draft-trade-down/

[adam]

1 hour ago, AZ54 said:

I don’t buy that argument.   I’d buy the crappy GM drafted you argument better.   Even teams with bad QBs always can find decent options to pair with a good roster.  It might take a year or three to get that FA QB but in the meantime you’re building everywhere else on the roster.   Derek Carr.   Cousins.   Just look at what Shanahan has done with cast off QBs.   That includes Purdy because nobody wanted him.  If a GM is doing their job right you should be on a competitive roster in year 3.  Year 4 at the latest.   

I am just talking about any player in general. There seems to be a group of teams that are in the dead zone, and who don't look like they are getting out of it any time soon. Here are some teams and the last time they made the playoffs, a team like the Broncos is nearing a decade without a playoff appearance. The Panthers are right behind them. Other teams seem to be trending into the hole. Unless they nail their QB pick, these teams will more than likely stay right here for the foreseeable future.

Broncos - 2015
Panthers - 2017
Commanders - 2020
Saints - 2020
Cardinals - 2021
Raiders - 2021
Patriots - 2021
Titans - 2021
 

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, adam said:

I am just talking about any player in general. There seems to be a group of teams that are in the dead zone, and who don't look like they are getting out of it any time soon. Here are some teams and the last time they made the playoffs, a team like the Broncos is nearing a decade without a playoff appearance. The Panthers are right behind them. Other teams seem to be trending into the hole. Unless they nail their QB pick, these teams will more than likely stay right here for the foreseeable future.

Broncos - 2015
Panthers - 2017
Commanders - 2020
Saints - 2020
Cardinals - 2021
Raiders - 2021
Patriots - 2021
Titans - 2021
 

totally, and we were there for a LONG time. You keep the roster decent, especially maybe on defense, and you dont lose enough games to get that really good QB. Trapped in the middle.

This is why the idea of building a roster around a lesser QB is a bad idea. You dont win superbowls, but you dont fail enough to get a winner at QB.

[BearFan PHX]

11 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Obviously you have higher percentage the  earlier you pick. But you showed exactly my point, only 4 of 10 were picked in the first round and only one was a top ten pick. The higher the pick , the higher the risk. 

Only one of the 10 highest paid WRs was a first round pick.

Much rather take OL or DL high, better percentage of hits.

 

no, it's not a higher risk. more busts come out of each later round than in the first round.

What I think you've discovered is that more unexpected players are able to break out of the mold at lower rounds at WR than OL. But lower round picks are still much more likely to bust?

[Stinger226]

3 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

no, it's not a higher risk. more busts come out of each later round than in the first round.

What I think you've discovered is that more unexpected players are able to break out of the mold at lower rounds at WR than OL. But lower round picks are still much more likely to bust?

If I draft a DE in the first round and he fails, big deal . If a 5 th round pick fails, not that big a deal. That's what I'm talking about with higher risk. I'm not saying higher risk of failure in earlier rounds.

[Stinger226]

I think the ideal situation would be to get your franchise QB next year in the Fourth year of rebuilding. One more year of rebuilding would set up the QB for success. Poles get the chance to do it now, so he has to take it but we still can't fill all the needs with this year of the draft.

[BearFan PHX]

15 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

If I draft a DE in the first round and he fails, big deal . If a 5 th round pick fails, not that big a deal. That's what I'm talking about with higher risk. I'm not saying higher risk of failure in earlier rounds.

Ok I can agree with that, a 5th round pick, you dont expect greatness so if you find it its a bonus.

BUt if your plan is to build a roster, then youre picking higher because thats where the more likely successes are?

So trading down doesnt necessarily make it better. When it comes to a 3rd rounder, year, 2 4ths are probably better, but if you have a certain guy targeted who fell, then thats better.

But either way, this is our last top pick for a while, so you want to get a blue chip player if you can, and not just give away your upside for insurance?

[Stinger226]

14 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

Ok I can agree with that, a 5th round pick, you dont expect greatness so if you find it its a bonus.

BUt if your plan is to build a roster, then youre picking higher because thats where the more likely successes are?

So trading down doesnt necessarily make it better. When it comes to a 3rd rounder, year, 2 4ths are probably better, but if you have a certain guy targeted who fell, then thats better.

But either way, this is our last top pick for a while, so you want to get a blue chip player if you can, and not just give away your upside for insurance?

I have never disagreed with those beliefs but a good drafting GM can find gems more frequently in later rounds. Bagent and Sanborn are examples of finding players later. Of course odds of stardom are against you but not everyone on your roster can be first round picks

[AZ54]

4 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

no, it's not a higher risk. more busts come out of each later round than in the first round.

What I think you've discovered is that more unexpected players are able to break out of the mold at lower rounds at WR than OL. But lower round picks are still much more likely to bust?

Depends on how you define "risk".  If you simply look at it as a numbers game then yes there are more failures in later rounds.    If you look at it in terms of investment, not just money but also opportunity cost then the miss on a top ten pick is really bad.