We used to do a mock draft where people were GMs of different teams and we drafted in order, day by day, leading up to the draft. We don't have enough members to do that properly, but an easy alternative is doing a top 15 Mock Draft. I can consolidate the selections and produce a TalkBears consensus mock draft. 

Thoughts?

19 minutes ago, adam said:

We used to do a mock draft where people were GMs of different teams and we drafted in order, day by day, leading up to the draft. We don't have enough members to do that properly, but an easy alternative is doing a top 15 Mock Draft. I can consolidate the selections and produce a TalkBears consensus mock draft. 

Thoughts?

Anytime you want to get started. Will you use Draft Network simulator?

24 minutes ago, adam said:

We used to do a mock draft where people were GMs of different teams and we drafted in order, day by day, leading up to the draft. We don't have enough members to do that properly, but an easy alternative is doing a top 15 Mock Draft. I can consolidate the selections and produce a TalkBears consensus mock draft. 

Thoughts?

Anytime you want to get started. Will you use Draft Network simulator?

14 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Anytime you want to get started. Will you use Draft Network simulator?

Anytime, just post the mock of the top 15 picks on how you see it playing out. You can use whatever simulator you want, or do it manually. 

1 hour ago, adam said:

Anytime, just post the mock of the top 15 picks on how you see it playing out. You can use whatever simulator you want, or do it manually. 

It's bedtime in Thailand, tomorrow. 

So we go straight or figure in trades?

2 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

It's bedtime in Thailand, tomorrow. 

So we go straight or figure in trades?

If you believe there will be a trade, put it in. Minnesota and Arizona makes a lot of sense.

1 minute ago, adam said:

If you believe there will be a trade, put it in. Minnesota and Arizona makes a lot of sense.

That does. 

OK, if you want to participate, please post your projected top 15 mock draft, with trades. I will then collate the results and post what the consensus of the board looks like before the draft. 

1. Bears  Caleb Williams 

2 Washington Jayden Daniels

3 NE  JJ McCarthy

4 AZ trade with Vikings  who take Drake Maye 

5 SD MHJ

6 Giants Malek Nabers

7 Titans Joe Alt

8 Atl Dallas Turner

9 Bears trade with Denver , they take Bo Nix

10 Jets Taliese Fuage 

11 AZ Rome Odunze

12 Bears Jared Verse 

13 Las Vegas Michael Penix

14 NO Olu  Fashanu 

15 Indy Brock Bowers

 

Thanks Gents, I will post a running tally weekly up until the draft.

01- Chicago - QB Caleb Williams
02- Washington - QB Jayden Daniels
03- New England - QB J.J. McCarty
04- Arizona - WR Marvin Harrison, Jr.
05- LA Chargers - WR Rome Odunze
06- NY Giants - QB Drake Maye
07- Tennessee - OL Joe Alt
08- Atlanta - EDGE Dallas Turner
09- Chicago - WR Malik Nabers
10- NY Jets - TE Brock Bowers
11- Minnesota - QB Bo Nix 
12- Denver - QB Michael Penix, Jr. 
13- LV Raiders - OL Taliese Fuaga
14- New Orleans - EDGE Jared Verse
15- Indianapolis - CB Terrion Arnold

I'm sure there will be multiple trades in the top 15, but I'm not savvy enough to predict them, so I left it as is.

5 minutes ago, Pixote said:

01- Chicago - QB Caleb Williams
02- Washington - QB Jayden Daniels
03- New England - QB J.J. McCarty
04- Arizona - WR Marvin Harrison, Jr.
05- LA Chargers - WR Rome Odunze
06- NY Giants - QB Drake Maye
07- Tennessee - OL Joe Alt
08- Atlanta - EDGE Dallas Turner
09- Chicago - WR Malik Nabers
10- NY Jets - TE Brock Bowers
11- Minnesota - QB Bo Nix 
12- Denver - QB Michael Penix, Jr. 
13- LV Raiders - OL Taliese Fuaga
14- New Orleans - EDGE Jared Verse
15- Indianapolis - CB Terrion Arnold

I'm sure there will be multiple trades in the top 15, but I'm not savvy enough to predict them, so I left it as is.

If there is that much interest in Nix and Penix, then i hope they go before 9 so even more players fall to us or we are able to trade down a bit to get the same players. Very cool.

11 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

If there is that much interest in Nix and Penix, then i hope they go before 9 so even more players fall to us or we are able to trade down a bit to get the same players. Very cool.

Agree. Teams are desperate for QBs, so I think there is a chance they reach for one who would otherwise be drafted late rd 1 or rd 2.

My dream draft, although I doubt it happens, Bears draft Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze

34 minutes ago, Pixote said:

01- Chicago - QB Caleb Williams
02- Washington - QB Jayden Daniels
03- New England - QB J.J. McCarty
04- Arizona - WR Marvin Harrison, Jr.
05- LA Chargers - WR Rome Odunze
06- NY Giants - QB Drake Maye
07- Tennessee - OL Joe Alt
08- Atlanta - EDGE Dallas Turner
09- Chicago - WR Malik Nabers
10- NY Jets - TE Brock Bowers
11- Minnesota - QB Bo Nix 
12- Denver - QB Michael Penix, Jr. 
13- LV Raiders - OL Taliese Fuaga
14- New Orleans - EDGE Jared Verse
15- Indianapolis - CB Terrion Arnold

I'm sure there will be multiple trades in the top 15, but I'm not savvy enough to predict them, so I left it as is.

Wow, pretty close to the one I will post in a second.

Here is my take, did the complete round 1. 

Bears end up with:

1.1 Caleb Williams QB

1.17 Brian Thomas Jr WR. (9 for 17, 48, 2025 3rd)

2.48 Darius Robinson DE

3.75 Branden Fiske DT

4.122 Tanor Bortolini C 

 

3 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Here is my take, did the complete round 1. 

Bears end up with:

1.1 Caleb Williams QB

1.17 Brian Thomas Jr WR. (9 for 17, 48, 2025 3rd)

2.48 Darius Robinson DE

3.75 Branden Fiske DT

4.122 Tanor Bortolini C 

 

I like the players you selected for the Bears. You managed to grab our top 5 needs in the four rounds.

31 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Here is my take, did the complete round 1. 

Bears end up with:

1.1 Caleb Williams QB

1.17 Brian Thomas Jr WR. (9 for 17, 48, 2025 3rd)

2.48 Darius Robinson DE

3.75 Branden Fiske DT

4.122 Tanor Bortolini C 

 

good one - I like Fiske if he is available somewhere after the first two picks we make.

OK, with 4 drafts in, we are starting to see some trends. The draft is sorted by average draft position, Orange boxes are Bears selections, Green is the most common selection with 75% or higher rate for that slot, and Green difference is the lowest variance so far.

Just based off 4 drafts, Williams, Daniels, McCarthy, Maye, Harrison, and Alt are the only players always selected before #9. So it feels like the chance of any of those 6 at #9 is very low. Nabers, Turner, Odunze have selections inside and outside of the top 8. So there is a chance that one of them is there at #9. 

 

7 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

If there is that much interest in Nix and Penix, then i hope they go before 9 so even more players fall to us or we are able to trade down a bit to get the same players. Very cool.

Penix I could see making it into top 10 given how critical qb is. Penix is also good - I think Caleb / JJ / Penix are my 3 favorite qbs. 
 

Nix I don’t like at all. Daniel’s I worry for injury and Maye is talented but has a lot to work on. 
 

But if somehow Nix and Maye went top 10 or there was a push and teams wanted to jump Denver or Oakland to secure and kind of overpay for us to move down 2-3 spots that would be awesome. 

11 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Penix I could see making it into top 10 given how critical qb is. Penix is also good - I think Caleb / JJ / Penix are my 3 favorite qbs.

Thats how I see it too. Penix is a stud, but hes older, so maybe his future ceiling is lower, having already grown, and i think he has a bunch of injuries, but the ball sure does come off of his hand hot.

Also the three you mentioned are the ones who read the field the best - the do the best "quarterbacking"

19 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

Thats how I see it too. Penix is a stud, but hes older, so maybe his future ceiling is lower, having already grown, and i think he has a bunch of injuries, but the ball sure does come off of his hand hot.

Also the three you mentioned are the ones who read the field the best - the do the best "quarterbacking"

How do you evaluate a 23-year old QB playing against 18 year olds? He didn't really do anything until he was 22, and then was throwing to Odunze, Polk, and McMillan with a top 20 OT the last two seasons.  

How many QBs that joined the league at 23 or older (he will be 24 in May) succeeded in the NFL? 

I think the risk is that they have already developed, that you can't get much more out of them, so unless they are truly elite, then more than likely, they are already where they are going to be at.

Since 1967, there have only been 5 QBs drafted in the first round who were 24 or older on opening day of their rookie season, and Penix would end up as the 3rd oldest.

1. Brandon Weeden 28.9 (6-19, 184 YPG)
2. Jim Druckenmiller 25.0 (1-0, 39.8 YPG)
< - Michael Penix Jr - 24.3 >
3. Chad Pennington 24.2 (44-37, 200 YPG)
4. Ryan Tannehill 24.1 (81-70, 225 YPG)
5. Akili Smith 24.0 (3-14, 100.5 YPG)

24 minutes ago, adam said:

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

Thats how I see it too. Penix is a stud, but hes older, so maybe his future ceiling is lower, having already grown, and i think he has a bunch of injuries, but the ball sure does come off of his hand hot.

Also the three you mentioned are the ones who read the field the best - the do the best "quarterbacking"

How do you evaluate a 23-year old QB playing against 18 year olds? He didn't really do anything until he was 22, and then was throwing to Odunze, Polk, and McMillan with a top 20 OT the last two seasons.  

I thought he was pretty good at Indiana

Yeah I'm not crapping on Penix - I would rather have him than Daniels or Maye if that was the choice. Im just saying there are historical reasons why his value should be lower. But I cant say that he wont continue to grow in the NFL. Im just glad it's not a bet I have to make!

11 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

I thought he was pretty good at Indiana

I didn't watch many Indiana games.