#10 Mock Draft Selection

[AZ54]

2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

 

It's just another tool to look at for analyzing a player. Production, improving every year, football IQ, work ethic, love of football, character all come into play. 

I remember we drafted a DE from Penn State in the first round that was a monster but wasn't in love with football. He failed because of a lack of focus. He told you in the interview but they still took him. It was just a well paid job for him. It matters.

I agree with you but media analyst wannabes put too much emphasis on it.  Poles clearly has his target metrics for each position.   He stated he reviewed that with the new coaching staff to make sure he was targeting players that fit the system and the way they want to use them.  Very specifically if you will use less Cover 2 then having a 6'4" fast "high RAS" MLB who can cover the deep middle is less of a need.  

[Stinger226]

10 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

I agree with you but media analyst wannabes put too much emphasis on it.  Poles clearly has his target metrics for each position.   He stated he reviewed that with the new coaching staff to make sure he was targeting players that fit the system and the way they want to use them.  Very specifically if you will use less Cover 2 then having a 6'4" fast "high RAS" MLB who can cover the deep middle is less of a need.  

Something that will affect the draft that people don't talk about is what players on the team that they view valuable that we think they need to draft a backup? 

The Braxton/ Kiran debate is an example. If they think they have the position covered, it will eliminate a early OL pick at 10 . If they think it's a problem, it could be at 10. 

Personally I think we take an OL in the second round that they don't think needs to start his first year. Conerly could fill that spot at 41. 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

Im going to say if Jeanty and Campbell are gone - it will be a TE or Db. Im going to guess they take Will Johnson at 10. 
 

This assumes Jeanty, Graham and Campbell are gone. I think they like Simmons most if they go LT and it isn’t Campbell. 
 

That is my hoping they go high end DB prospect (Johnson and Johnson sounds like a great duo) vs the TE spect albeit it seems like a lot of momentum headed toward the PSU TE. 
 

If it were a year ago and it was Brockers id say yes - but I don’t think Warren is Brockers. 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

35 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Something that will affect the draft that people don't talk about is what players on the team that they view valuable that we think they need to draft a backup? 

The Braxton/ Kiran debate is an example. If they think they have the position covered, it will eliminate a early OL pick at 10 . If they think it's a problem, it could be at 10. 

Personally I think we take an OL in the second round that they don't think needs to start his first year. Conerly could fill that spot at 41. 

I think Conerly or Simmons are high probability picks in RD 2 and I could even see them moving up. 
 

Right now I would want nothing more than a qb to be there at 10 that drives a team wanting to trade up - or some other position - but it takes 2 to tango. 
 

I think no obvious blue chipper will be there at 10 - so I’d rather move down and than get a 2 for 1 approach. Address OT, RB, DL, TE and Wideout with 4 being in first two rounds depending on what you can swing in trade down. 

[AZ54]

14 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Im going to say if Jeanty and Campbell are gone - it will be a TE or Db. Im going to guess they take Will Johnson at 10. 
 

This assumes Jeanty, Graham and Campbell are gone. I think they like Simmons most if they go LT and it isn’t Campbell. 
 

That is my hoping they go high end DB prospect (Johnson and Johnson sounds like a great duo) vs the TE spect albeit it seems like a lot of momentum headed toward the PSU TE. 
 

If it were a year ago and it was Brockers id say yes - but I don’t think Warren is Brockers. 

I'd be far happier drafting RB Hampton at 10 vs. Warren.  We need a good running game to get this offense out of the blocks especially early in the season.  

[Stinger226]

14 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I think Conerly or Simmons are high probability picks in RD 2 and I could even see them moving up. 
 

Right now I would want nothing more than a qb to be there at 10 that drives a team wanting to trade up - or some other position - but it takes 2 to tango. 
 

I think no obvious blue chipper will be there at 10 - so I’d rather move down and than get a 2 for 1 approach. Address OT, RB, DL, TE and Wideout with 4 being in first two rounds depending on what you can swing in trade down. 

It's hard to predict trades but they absolutely will consider that. If we could could get an extra 2nd and 4 th, that would be great.

[Stinger226]

8 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

I'd be far happier drafting RB Hampton at 10 vs. Warren.  We need a good running game to get this offense out of the blocks especially early in the season.  

 

With such a deep draft in RBs, I don't see a first round RB pick. They can get a 2 nd or 3rd  round pick that could contribute in a rotational capacity right away. 

Johnson doesn't run a load back system. 2 yrs ago they had a chance to draft Robinson but moved back and took Gibbs in Detroit. His philosophy is to never let the defense know what he's doing. That's why Monty and Gibbs both got a lot of carries in Detroit.

If you have a load back that simplifies the offense for a DC.

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

 

With such a deep draft in RBs, I don't see a first round RB pick. They can get a 2 nd or 3rd  round pick that could contribute in a rotational capacity right away. 

Johnson doesn't run a load back system. 2 yrs ago they had a chance to draft Robinson but moved back and took Gibbs in Detroit. His philosophy is to never let the defense know what he's doing. That's why Monty and Gibbs both got a lot of carries in Detroit.

If you have a load back that simplifies the offense for a DC.

I'm a little confused by this. I personally agree with you and don't think we will take Jeanty at 10, but how is a player taken at 10 a "load back," but if you take them at 12, then they can share carries with another player? Aren't 10 and 12 pretty much the same thing?

[Mongo3451]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

If you have a load back that simplifies the offense for a DC.

This is an utterly ridiculous statement.  Jeanty is a problem, just as Saquan Barkley.  When a back is so good you have to gameplan against every play, it's far more valuable than platoon guys.  It's literally the opposite of what makes sense.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

33 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

This is an utterly ridiculous statement.  Jeanty is a problem, just as Saquan Barkley.  When a back is so good you have to gameplan against every play, it's far more valuable than platoon guys.  It's literally the opposite of what makes sense.

Yeah I agree. If you have a total stud it is harder because they can do it all. It is when they are one dimensional that it makes it easier on the D. I do agree you don’t want to have just one back - but having a top 5 running back is a real good thing and helps the offense, defense, oline and qb. I say it helps defense because time of possession and rest that comes from a back who can control the clock helps the defense too. 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

Nate Tice on Hoge and Jahns was a good listen - spent a lot of time on oline candidates. Mike also has had some good content recently. Much of it aligns to what a few of you have been saying about Banks being a better LT candidate than Campbell - but a lot of love for Membou. 

[BearFan PHX]

17 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Nate Tice on Hoge and Jahns was a good listen - spent a lot of time on oline candidates. Mike also has had some good content recently. Much of it aligns to what a few of you have been saying about Banks being a better LT candidate than Campbell - but a lot of love for Membou. 

so interesting. I dont love Campbell but id take him over Membou any day. membou is an athlete, but he doesnt finish, hearts not in it etc to my eye. I can understand the love for Campbell more than for Membou, at least at OT. I would take Ersery over Membou any day.

Everyone sees it differently I guess.

[Stinger226]

3 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

I'm a little confused by this. I personally agree with you and don't think we will take Jeanty at 10, but how is a player taken at 10 a "load back," but if you take them at 12, then they can share carries with another player? Aren't 10 and 12 pretty much the same thing?

It doesn't have to be, but if you draft someone like Barkley or Bjan Robinson you probably are going to have the offense runs thru him,  at least he will be the focus of the offense.

Johnson clearly stated he wants the offense to run thru Caleb. KC offense runs thru the QB but likes a good running game for balance. I think Johnson looks at it the same way. He uses a 2 back system to keep the defense off balance with Monty and Gibbs but wants Caleb to be his focus.

Philly had the advantage of a good passing offense and great OL, when they added Barkley. A quality defense helps. 

Do we have the team yet to add the final piece as Philly did last year? Not quite there yet. 

I've been looking at RBs today and there are a lot of good ones that could be starting backs for many teams. The great depth at RB this year will figure into when the bears take a RB. 

Actually none of that matters, Jeanty won't be there at 10 anyways.

 

[Stinger226]

3 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

This is an utterly ridiculous statement.  Jeanty is a problem, just as Saquan Barkley.  When a back is so good you have to gameplan against every play, it's far more valuable than platoon guys.  It's literally the opposite of what makes sense.

That was dumb, it won't be the last time I do that.

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Nate Tice on Hoge and Jahns was a good listen - spent a lot of time on oline candidates. Mike also has had some good content recently. Much of it aligns to what a few of you have been saying about Banks being a better LT candidate than Campbell - but a lot of love for Membou. 

Mike Tice rates Conerly one of the top LT prospects in the draft and will go higher than early 2nd his kid was saying.

[BearFan PHX]

59 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Mike Tice rates Conerly one of the top LT prospects in the draft and will go higher than early 2nd his kid was saying.

Yes. I agree. I think that Ersery and Conerly are both better than Membou. Simmons is injured, so who knows where someone will pick him. I worry that the best name at OT by pick 39 will be Grant from W&M and he does not deserve to be a high 2nd round pick.

*IF* youre someone who thinks we need a LT this year, it drops off fast.

[Stinger226]

5 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Yes. I agree. I think that Ersery and Conerly are both better than Membou. Simmons is injured, so who knows where someone will pick him. I worry that the best name at OT by pick 39 will be Grant from W&M and he does not deserve to be a high 2nd round pick.

*IF* youre someone who thinks we need a LT this year, it drops off fast.

Tice mentioned both Membou and Banks. He said if Simmons didn't get hurt he would have been the top rated LT but of course, he did.

[Mongo3451]

6 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

That was dumb, it won't be the last time I do that.

Same with me.  I'm glad to have brothers to keep me in check.  Especially when rum is involved...🍻

[adam]

19 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

same here if they pick Campbell with Banks still on the board.

 

This is precisely what has led me to believe we are taking Banks or an OT - that position drops off faster than HB or DT in this draft to my eye.

Taken alone, there could be lots of good options at pick 10. DE, DT, HB, TE, WR - all have players that could help us, and look good. But there is a barren wasteland at OT if youre not SURE Ersery will drop to pick 39.

That's a huge part of why Ive been on the OT at 10 train. Its not that OT Banks can help us so much more than HB Jeanty, but that HB Kaleb Johnson for example or HB TreVeyon Henderson can help us more than OT Charles Grant?

Dane Brugler, who publishes "The Beast" Draft Guide every year has Banks listed as OG2 after Tyler Booker. Even though he played OT, Brugler projects him as a Guard. I thought that was interesting. 

[Stinger226]

38 minutes ago, adam said:

Dane Brugler, who publishes "The Beast" Draft Guide every year has Banks listed as OG2 after Tyler Booker. Even though he played OT, Brugler projects him as a Guard. I thought that was interesting content.

Monday Dane Brugler going to be on Barstool podcast with Greg Gabriel, it's live so should be interesting . I think 11 or 12 , not sure the hours are screwed up over here.

[AZ54]

16 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

 

With such a deep draft in RBs, I don't see a first round RB pick. They can get a 2 nd or 3rd  round pick that could contribute in a rotational capacity right away. 

Johnson doesn't run a load back system. 2 yrs ago they had a chance to draft Robinson but moved back and took Gibbs in Detroit. His philosophy is to never let the defense know what he's doing. That's why Monty and Gibbs both got a lot of carries in Detroit.

If you have a load back that simplifies the offense for a DC.

I think you’re misreading that.  All I said is I’d prefer Hampton over Warren.  Given the full spectrum of options I’d take neither at 10.   

[dawhizz]

One guy I haven’t heard mentioned a lot who I’m warming up to as a first round target is Derrick Harmon, the DT from Oregon. I’ve seen him mostly projected mid to late first round, but his measurables and testing are eerily similar to Chris Jones and highlights I’ve seen show both penetrating and pretty stout against the run. I think I’d take him over Grant or Nolen. I’m not sure I’m convinced we need a DT in the first with Dexter, Billings, and Jarrett plus Zacch Pickens and Chris Williams as younger players but neither of them is really significantly moving the needle at this point and a Dexter/Harmon/Jarrett/Billings rotation with whoever sticks between Pickens and Williams is pretty interesting to me. 

[Stinger226]

50 minutes ago, dawhizz said:

One guy I haven’t heard mentioned a lot who I’m warming up to as a first round target is Derrick Harmon, the DT from Oregon. I’ve seen him mostly projected mid to late first round, but his measurables and testing are eerily similar to Chris Jones and highlights I’ve seen show both penetrating and pretty stout against the run. I think I’d take him over Grant or Nolen. I’m not sure I’m convinced we need a DT in the first with Dexter, Billings, and Jarrett plus Zacch Pickens and Chris Williams as younger players but neither of them is really significantly moving the needle at this point and a Dexter/Harmon/Jarrett/Billings rotation with whoever sticks between Pickens and Williams is pretty interesting to me. 

Harmon is a beast. Like you said a late first wouldn't be a great reach but I think if we trade back then his name would come into play.

The reason DT is a need is because you want a strong 4 man rotation. We have 3 strong players but need a 4th. Plus Billings is in the final year of his contract and Jarrett has age. Harmon is more of a 3T than NT. Grant would upgrade NT where Billings is the only player there. 

It doesn't have to be in the first but it depends what they decide is more important . I think DE is just as needy with only 2 solid players and Booker. In the first we can get the second best DE, (James Pierce) if that's what they decide. The second round has options also.

[BearFan PHX]

8 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Harmon is a beast. Like you said a late first wouldn't be a great reach but I think if we trade back then his name would come into play.

The reason DT is a need is because you want a strong 4 man rotation. We have 3 strong players but need a 4th. Plus Billings is in the final year of his contract and Jarrett has age. Harmon is more of a 3T than NT. Grant would upgrade NT where Billings is the only player there. 

It doesn't have to be in the first but it depends what they decide is more important . I think DE is just as needy with only 2 solid players and Booker. In the first we can get the second best DE, (James Pierce) if that's what they decide. The second round has options also.

Right, and you'd ditch any of them for Aaron Donald, so you're always looking for more until you have that all time great. Dexter is good, and ascending, but if you see that guy available to you int he draft, theres no reason not to take him. You can always add to the D Line if the talent is high enough.

[Stinger226]

3 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Right, and you'd ditch any of them for Aaron Donald, so you're always looking for more until you have that all time great. Dexter is good, and ascending, but if you see that guy available to you int he draft, theres no reason not to take him. You can always add to the D Line if the talent is high enough.

Aaron Donald is not in this draft. Harmon gets a ton of pressure but is a poor tackler. Has a 40% tackle rate.