Bears select Luther Burden (WR) at Pick #39

[adam]

Just looking through stats from last year, the Bears will have the deepest receiving group in the NFL. Whoever ends up as pass-catching TE2 will be the best TE2 in the league. Whoever ends up as WR3 will be the best WR3 in the league. Whoever ends up WR2 will be a top 5 WR2. 

Odunze had the most yards of any WR3 and the 2nd most receptions in the NFL last year. Allen had the 2nd most receptions as WR2, both on a terrible offense. 

If things go as planned, I think Moore will have over 80 receptions, Odunze and Loveland will have over 70, Burden over 60, and Kmet over 50. Add 30+ for RBs and another 10 or so for all others and that should put Williams near 400 completions. Williams had 351 last year and Goff had 390 with comparable weapons, so it checks out.

Moore, Odunze, Burden > St. Brown, Williams, Patrick
Loveland, Kmet > LaPorta, Wright
Swift, Johnson < Gibbs, Montgomery

I also think Moore will have 20+ carries (he had 14 last year) and I am sure Burden and Loveland will have a few as well. That may be why they didn't want to commit higher draft capital on a RB. 

[Stinger226]

We easily have more firepower than Lions had last year on an offense that scored 70 TDs. If Caleb is up to the task, he should be closer to 5000 than 4000 with 30+ TDs. 

Johnson said the offense will run thru Caleb but a running game will complent it. Let me be the first to say Monangai will end up a fan favorite. Because of disappointment on a well known name and as a late round pick, he is being dismissed. I'm not.

I heard some people use Deboo Samuel as a comparison to Luther Burden that averaged 50 carries a year. We have plenty of ammunition to have a good running game.

 

[Mongo3451]

2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

We easily have more firepower than Lions had last year on an offense that scored 70 TDs. If Caleb is up to the task, he should be closer to 5000 than 4000 with 30+ TDs. 

False.  We don't have a Gibbs or Williams.  What we have extra isn't that scary.

[Stinger226]

4 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

False.  We don't have a Gibbs or Williams.  What we have extra isn't that scary.

I was referring to the overall numbers of players Caleb has with quality traits. And it's an opinion. You disagree, it's okay.

We don't have Gibbs but that doesn't mean we can't have an effective running game. Williams has speed that is unique to the league but we have ( projection) 3 quality WRs and 2 quality TEs and ( I could be wrong about this) a better QB. 

[Mongo3451]

2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I was referring to the overall numbers of players Caleb has with quality traits. And it's an opinion. You disagree, it's okay.

We don't have Gibbs but that doesn't mean we can't have an effective running game. Williams has speed that is unique to the league but we have ( projection) 3 quality WRs and 2 quality TEs and ( I could be wrong about this) a better QB. 

Leaving OL out of the equation, they have three mismatch players on offense and we have one.

[Stinger226]

I expect this year to be different from last year plus we have the coach that put that offense in the position to flourish.

We don't know what to expect from any of our WRs, TEs, or RBs with Johnson pulling the trigger. I'm optimistic it's going to go well . I wasn't comparing one player to another player, just the overview of the offense.

[adam]

Watching training camp videos of Travis Hunter compared to real WRs, I think JAX made a mistake trading away all that draft capital for him when they could've had Jeanty+BTJ.

Hunter will still be a great CB, but I don't think he will ever even get to Hester level at WR. He will be more of a gadget guy, Jet Sweep, Fly, Post. 

[AZ54]

16 minutes ago, adam said:

Watching training camp videos of Travis Hunter compared to real WRs, I think JAX made a mistake trading away all that draft capital for him when they could've had Jeanty+BTJ.

Hunter will still be a great CB, but I don't think he will ever even get to Hester level at WR. He will be more of a gadget guy, Jet Sweep, Fly, Post. 

I watched a couple Colorado games he never stood out to me as an elite player.  At least with Jeanty you could see him making everyone else look like they weren’t on the same level.  Then again Hunter didn’t have a good QB and had poor play calling.  I’ll be curious to see him play in the NFL. 

[adam]

On 5/20/2025 at 1:29 PM, AZ54 said:

I watched a couple Colorado games he never stood out to me as an elite player.  At least with Jeanty you could see him making everyone else look like they weren’t on the same level.  Then again Hunter didn’t have a good QB and had poor play calling.  I’ll be curious to see him play in the NFL. 

Yeah I agree, Hunter seems like a good athlete, but not someone you spend that much draft capital on.

[jason]

On 4/28/2025 at 6:07 PM, Mongo3451 said:

Leaving OL out of the equation, they have three mismatch players on offense and we have one.

Which three are you counting? Decker, Ragnow, and Sewell? If so, I’d say you can’t discount Glasgow either. Oh, and BTW, Ratledge is going to a monster in that grouping.

They might have an entire OL of mismatch players.

[adam]

28 minutes ago, jason said:

Which three are you counting? Decker, Ragnow, and Sewell? If so, I’d say you can’t discount Glasgow either. Oh, and BTW, Ratledge is going to a monster in that grouping.

They might have an entire OL of mismatch players.

I thought he was omitting OL altogether and stating they had Gibbs, Williams, and either (LaPorta/St. Brown) as mismatch players?

For OL, Sewell and Decker are clearly better on the outside, but on the interior, they lost Zietler, so it would seem that Dalman+Thuney+Jackson has the edge over Ragnow+Glasgow+Ratledge at this moment.

Also, how will Detroit's offense look without Johnson and the coaches that left?

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, adam said:

Also, how will Detroit's offense look without Johnson and the coaches that left?

This is the big question. What does gaining or losing Johnson do for an offense?

adam, knowing your penchant for numbers, I wonder if there is a "Ben Johnson" multiplier, on various stats, that can be measured after this coming season?

I know there are a ton of little things that swamp out being able to attribute the Bears' and Lions' offensive changes in fortune over last year to just Ben Johnson, but PFF does it so why cant we? LOL

[Mongo3451]

3 hours ago, jason said:

Which three are you counting? Decker, Ragnow, and Sewell? If so, I’d say you can’t discount Glasgow either. Oh, and BTW, Ratledge is going to a monster in that grouping.

They might have an entire OL of mismatch players.

Agreed, they have a beast of an OL.  That's why I didn't include them.

[adam]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

This is the big question. What does gaining or losing Johnson do for an offense?

adam, knowing your penchant for numbers, I wonder if there is a "Ben Johnson" multiplier, on various stats, that can be measured after this coming season?

I know there are a ton of little things that swamp out being able to attribute the Bears' and Lions' offensive changes in fortune over last year to just Ben Johnson, but PFF does it so why cant we? LOL

There is a lot of data on Johnson, it just depends on how you want to skin the cat. The obvious thing is it will be basically impossible to be worse than last year, and just based on normal trends, the Bears should see a 12-15% bump in all offensive statistical categories (Yardage, scoring, EPA/P, etc), if not more. I am thinking closer to 20% because the 2024 Bears were really bad.

Johnson has the 2nd highest Success Rate for a play caller since 2020 at 43.38%, behind Monken, but Monken got a lot of that from Lamar's scrambles. Either way, the Bears are going to be ahead of the sticks. We are so used to playing from behind the sticks. This will feel weird.

For Scoring%, the Lions are 2nd in the NFL in scoring rate over the last 3 seasons at 45.1%, only 0.3% behind BUF.  CHI has been a raw 10% lower, or close to a 25% difference. Last year DET was 51.6%, which was the highest rate going back to 2020. 

So combined, no team has been more efficient moving the ball AND scoring over the last few years than Johnson's offense. 

Another wild one is that Goff got better under Johnson than he was with McVay. McVay needed Stafford. Goff went up over 6% on comp% and 5% on catchable ball rate, and a whole bunch of raw stats increased (TDs up, INTs down, QB Rating up). 

[Stinger226]

It remains to be seen what good play calling effect has on our OL. If the ball is coming out quicker, the OL will look much better. We upgraded the talent and I think overlooked, is the leadership that Thuney-Dalman bring to the overall performance of the offense. We question everything because of the history of this team but I think we are underestimating what this will look like as a whole. We have more weapons, coaching that has completely changed the outcome. Time to jump on board instead of still questioning everything.

[Mongo3451]

Back to Luther Burden.  I've read several articles lately that talk about why he fell to the second round.  One article claims that he was consistently last in line to take reps on practice.  Another said that he is pouty and/or mopey and coaches and other players had to help get his head straight.  I'm not sure if it's boredom, maturity or physiological.  Here's to hoping that a pro environment eliminates all doubt.

[Stinger226]

When he goes from one of the top WRs to a lackluster last year it is fair to question his work ethic, ,maturity, and his love of football.  With all the off season investigation they do to vent a prospect, I trust that is it not a problem going forward. George Pickens was a good WR but considered a head case. I think the team choose carefully when they drafted him.

[BearFan PHX]

6 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Time to jump on board instead of still questioning everything.

What does this even mean on a discussion board?!

[BearFan PHX]

3 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

Back to Luther Burden.  I've read several articles lately that talk about why he fell to the second round.  One article claims that he was consistently last in line to take reps on practice.  Another said that he is pouty and/or mopey and coaches and other players had to help get his head straight.  I'm not sure if it's boredom, maturity or physiological.  Here's to hoping that a pro environment eliminates all doubt.

amen. I also think it's noteworthy that the Bears are drafting players who may be trouble and need guidance - that's a new thing for us. And it seems like Johnson has the balls to lead players like this. I think all in all it's a very good sign.