From Bad to Good

[adam]

With the Bears finishing 5-12 last year makes it feel like a herculean effort to even get to a winning record at 9-8.  However, turn arounds with much more wins are almost commonplace nowadays.

Last year alone, 3 of the top 9 teams in the NFL all had a win differential of +6 from the previous season:

WAS 4-13 > 12-5 (+8)
MIN 7-10 > 14-3 (+7)
LAC 5-12 > 11-6 (+6)

I feel like there is less correlation from year to year than ever before. In the season prior to winning 12 games, WAS lost their last 8 games, MIN finished 1-6 with their only win a 3-0 barnburner against LVR. LAC finished 1-8 and their only win was a 6-0 win against NE. 

So as much as this feels like the Bears are building on a 5-win season. They really are starting over with all teams 0-0. Ben Johnson has led an offense that has been top 5 in scoring and top 4 in yards in all of the last 3 seasons. While Dennis Allen, as a DC, has coached a top 11 scoring unit in his last 3 seasons as a DC. 

There were 7 teams to have a top 11 offense AND top 11 defense in 2024, they all made the playoffs, the worst team (DEN) had 10 wins, and their average win total for the group was 12.4.

[BearFan PHX]

Yeah, I dont know what we will be exactly, but last years win total makes a poor predictor or even starting point, i agree.

First of all, we should have had 8 wins if Eberflus hadnt given them away.

secondly the roster is very different and so is the coaching staff. So I agree that there is no reason to be anchored to last years number in any way.

But this is a NEW team, and we have to gel and see what we are. Gotta do it on the grass 

So I totally agree with you. we are 0-0 with no reason to think anything concrete yet for better or worse!

[adam]

17 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Yeah, I dont know what we will be exactly, but last years win total makes a poor predictor or even starting point, i agree.

First of all, we should have had 8 wins if Eberflus hadnt given them away.

secondly the roster is very different and so is the coaching staff. So I agree that there is no reason to be anchored to last years number in any way.

But this is a NEW team, and we have to gel and see what we are. Gotta do it on the grass 

So I totally agree with you. we are 0-0 with no reason to think anything concrete yet for better or worse!

and it also goes the opposite way, MIN won 14 games last year, but were probably more like a 10-win team. So if they only win 9 or 10 games, it will feel like a huge disappointment. 

I also think coaching/scheme changes are the biggest factors outside of a new QB on how much a team can change in one offseason. All the other positions have impact but it feels like those are orders of magnitude lower than QB and coaches. Like it is hard to name a good team with bad coaches. Most good teams have at least serviceable QBs, but on those good teams, there are bad CBs, LBs, WRs, RBs, TEs, OGs, etc. 

[Stinger226]

On 7/1/2025 at 11:25 AM, adam said:

With the Bears finishing 5-12 last year makes it feel like a herculean effort to even get to a winning record at 9-8.  However, turn arounds with much more wins are almost commonplace nowadays.

Last year alone, 3 of the top 9 teams in the NFL all had a win differential of +6 from the previous season:

WAS 4-13 > 12-5 (+8)
MIN 7-10 > 14-3 (+7)
LAC 5-12 > 11-6 (+6)

I feel like there is less correlation from year to year than ever before. In the season prior to winning 12 games, WAS lost their last 8 games, MIN finished 1-6 with their only win a 3-0 barnburner against LVR. LAC finished 1-8 and their only win was a 6-0 win against NE. 

So as much as this feels like the Bears are building on a 5-win season. They really are starting over with all teams 0-0. Ben Johnson has led an offense that has been top 5 in scoring and top 4 in yards in all of the last 3 seasons. While Dennis Allen, as a DC, has coached a top 11 scoring unit in his last 3 seasons as a DC. 

There were 7 teams to have a top 11 offense AND top 11 defense in 2024, they all made the playoffs, the worst team (DEN) had 10 wins, and their average win total for the group was 12.4.

Watching the Bears last year showed me we had more talent than a 5 win team suggests. Coaching doomed a winning season. If you think Caleb is the real deal, you have to be optimistic on our chances.