From Bad to Good

[adam]

With the Bears finishing 5-12 last year makes it feel like a herculean effort to even get to a winning record at 9-8.  However, turn arounds with much more wins are almost commonplace nowadays.

Last year alone, 3 of the top 9 teams in the NFL all had a win differential of +6 from the previous season:

WAS 4-13 > 12-5 (+8)
MIN 7-10 > 14-3 (+7)
LAC 5-12 > 11-6 (+6)

I feel like there is less correlation from year to year than ever before. In the season prior to winning 12 games, WAS lost their last 8 games, MIN finished 1-6 with their only win a 3-0 barnburner against LVR. LAC finished 1-8 and their only win was a 6-0 win against NE. 

So as much as this feels like the Bears are building on a 5-win season. They really are starting over with all teams 0-0. Ben Johnson has led an offense that has been top 5 in scoring and top 4 in yards in all of the last 3 seasons. While Dennis Allen, as a DC, has coached a top 11 scoring unit in his last 3 seasons as a DC. 

There were 7 teams to have a top 11 offense AND top 11 defense in 2024, they all made the playoffs, the worst team (DEN) had 10 wins, and their average win total for the group was 12.4.

[BearFan PHX]

Yeah, I dont know what we will be exactly, but last years win total makes a poor predictor or even starting point, i agree.

First of all, we should have had 8 wins if Eberflus hadnt given them away.

secondly the roster is very different and so is the coaching staff. So I agree that there is no reason to be anchored to last years number in any way.

But this is a NEW team, and we have to gel and see what we are. Gotta do it on the grass 

So I totally agree with you. we are 0-0 with no reason to think anything concrete yet for better or worse!

[adam]

17 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Yeah, I dont know what we will be exactly, but last years win total makes a poor predictor or even starting point, i agree.

First of all, we should have had 8 wins if Eberflus hadnt given them away.

secondly the roster is very different and so is the coaching staff. So I agree that there is no reason to be anchored to last years number in any way.

But this is a NEW team, and we have to gel and see what we are. Gotta do it on the grass 

So I totally agree with you. we are 0-0 with no reason to think anything concrete yet for better or worse!

and it also goes the opposite way, MIN won 14 games last year, but were probably more like a 10-win team. So if they only win 9 or 10 games, it will feel like a huge disappointment. 

I also think coaching/scheme changes are the biggest factors outside of a new QB on how much a team can change in one offseason. All the other positions have impact but it feels like those are orders of magnitude lower than QB and coaches. Like it is hard to name a good team with bad coaches. Most good teams have at least serviceable QBs, but on those good teams, there are bad CBs, LBs, WRs, RBs, TEs, OGs, etc. 

[Stinger226]

On 7/1/2025 at 11:25 AM, adam said:

With the Bears finishing 5-12 last year makes it feel like a herculean effort to even get to a winning record at 9-8.  However, turn arounds with much more wins are almost commonplace nowadays.

Last year alone, 3 of the top 9 teams in the NFL all had a win differential of +6 from the previous season:

WAS 4-13 > 12-5 (+8)
MIN 7-10 > 14-3 (+7)
LAC 5-12 > 11-6 (+6)

I feel like there is less correlation from year to year than ever before. In the season prior to winning 12 games, WAS lost their last 8 games, MIN finished 1-6 with their only win a 3-0 barnburner against LVR. LAC finished 1-8 and their only win was a 6-0 win against NE. 

So as much as this feels like the Bears are building on a 5-win season. They really are starting over with all teams 0-0. Ben Johnson has led an offense that has been top 5 in scoring and top 4 in yards in all of the last 3 seasons. While Dennis Allen, as a DC, has coached a top 11 scoring unit in his last 3 seasons as a DC. 

There were 7 teams to have a top 11 offense AND top 11 defense in 2024, they all made the playoffs, the worst team (DEN) had 10 wins, and their average win total for the group was 12.4.

Watching the Bears last year showed me we had more talent than a 5 win team suggests. Coaching doomed a winning season. If you think Caleb is the real deal, you have to be optimistic on our chances.

[Stinger226]

Here is some interesting stats: Consider two years unded Fields and one under a rookie QB. 

Kmet has the 10th most yards of a TE the past 3 years and of those he has the 4th most TD's behind Kittle, Andrews and Kelce has 56 less trgts than Kittle, 29 less than Andrews and 192 less than Kelce

[Stinger226]

DE is a question mark with depth:  Dayo and Sweat are our starters. (Austin Booker-Dom Robinson-Xaiver Calton-Dainel Hardy-Jamree Kromah-Jereme Robinson are our backups. Also Shemar Turner and Gervon Dexter could take some snaps outside. 

Dayo 6-5 282

Sweat 6-5 273

Austin 6-4 258

Dom 6-5 275

Xaiver 6-6 273

Hardy 6-2 260

Kromah 6-3 268

Jereme 6-3 258

Shemar 6-3 293

Dexter 6-4 326

We have many players with the size to play the DA DE position. So who could be a breakout player we are not counting on. As BJ stated I think Dom could be that guy. 

[adam]

3 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Here is some interesting stats: Consider two years unded Fields and one under a rookie QB. 

Kmet has the 10th most yards of a TE the past 3 years and of those he has the 4th most TD's behind Kittle, Andrews and Kelce has 56 less trgts than Kittle, 29 less than Andrews and 192 less than Kelce

Kmet gets a lot of hate, but he did more with less than most TEs in the league. 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

3 hours ago, adam said:

Kmet gets a lot of hate, but he did more with less than most TEs in the league. 

If Keenan Allen was not here, this may not even be be in discussion. 

Allen was Caleb's safety blanket.  121 targets and 70 receptions. If his #1 read wasnt open, then all eyes went his direction.

DJ with 140 targets and 98 receptions 

Those target/reception percentages will improve with a better oline and Caleb being more settled.  Kmet has shown he can produce with less and will rebound if the QB has time, which I believe will happen.