From Bad to Good

[adam]

With the Bears finishing 5-12 last year makes it feel like a herculean effort to even get to a winning record at 9-8.  However, turn arounds with much more wins are almost commonplace nowadays.

Last year alone, 3 of the top 9 teams in the NFL all had a win differential of +6 from the previous season:

WAS 4-13 > 12-5 (+8)
MIN 7-10 > 14-3 (+7)
LAC 5-12 > 11-6 (+6)

I feel like there is less correlation from year to year than ever before. In the season prior to winning 12 games, WAS lost their last 8 games, MIN finished 1-6 with their only win a 3-0 barnburner against LVR. LAC finished 1-8 and their only win was a 6-0 win against NE. 

So as much as this feels like the Bears are building on a 5-win season. They really are starting over with all teams 0-0. Ben Johnson has led an offense that has been top 5 in scoring and top 4 in yards in all of the last 3 seasons. While Dennis Allen, as a DC, has coached a top 11 scoring unit in his last 3 seasons as a DC. 

There were 7 teams to have a top 11 offense AND top 11 defense in 2024, they all made the playoffs, the worst team (DEN) had 10 wins, and their average win total for the group was 12.4.

[BearFan PHX]

Yeah, I dont know what we will be exactly, but last years win total makes a poor predictor or even starting point, i agree.

First of all, we should have had 8 wins if Eberflus hadnt given them away.

secondly the roster is very different and so is the coaching staff. So I agree that there is no reason to be anchored to last years number in any way.

But this is a NEW team, and we have to gel and see what we are. Gotta do it on the grass 

So I totally agree with you. we are 0-0 with no reason to think anything concrete yet for better or worse!

[adam]

17 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Yeah, I dont know what we will be exactly, but last years win total makes a poor predictor or even starting point, i agree.

First of all, we should have had 8 wins if Eberflus hadnt given them away.

secondly the roster is very different and so is the coaching staff. So I agree that there is no reason to be anchored to last years number in any way.

But this is a NEW team, and we have to gel and see what we are. Gotta do it on the grass 

So I totally agree with you. we are 0-0 with no reason to think anything concrete yet for better or worse!

and it also goes the opposite way, MIN won 14 games last year, but were probably more like a 10-win team. So if they only win 9 or 10 games, it will feel like a huge disappointment. 

I also think coaching/scheme changes are the biggest factors outside of a new QB on how much a team can change in one offseason. All the other positions have impact but it feels like those are orders of magnitude lower than QB and coaches. Like it is hard to name a good team with bad coaches. Most good teams have at least serviceable QBs, but on those good teams, there are bad CBs, LBs, WRs, RBs, TEs, OGs, etc. 

[Stinger226]

On 7/1/2025 at 11:25 AM, adam said:

With the Bears finishing 5-12 last year makes it feel like a herculean effort to even get to a winning record at 9-8.  However, turn arounds with much more wins are almost commonplace nowadays.

Last year alone, 3 of the top 9 teams in the NFL all had a win differential of +6 from the previous season:

WAS 4-13 > 12-5 (+8)
MIN 7-10 > 14-3 (+7)
LAC 5-12 > 11-6 (+6)

I feel like there is less correlation from year to year than ever before. In the season prior to winning 12 games, WAS lost their last 8 games, MIN finished 1-6 with their only win a 3-0 barnburner against LVR. LAC finished 1-8 and their only win was a 6-0 win against NE. 

So as much as this feels like the Bears are building on a 5-win season. They really are starting over with all teams 0-0. Ben Johnson has led an offense that has been top 5 in scoring and top 4 in yards in all of the last 3 seasons. While Dennis Allen, as a DC, has coached a top 11 scoring unit in his last 3 seasons as a DC. 

There were 7 teams to have a top 11 offense AND top 11 defense in 2024, they all made the playoffs, the worst team (DEN) had 10 wins, and their average win total for the group was 12.4.

Watching the Bears last year showed me we had more talent than a 5 win team suggests. Coaching doomed a winning season. If you think Caleb is the real deal, you have to be optimistic on our chances.

[Stinger226]

Here is some interesting stats: Consider two years unded Fields and one under a rookie QB. 

Kmet has the 10th most yards of a TE the past 3 years and of those he has the 4th most TD's behind Kittle, Andrews and Kelce has 56 less trgts than Kittle, 29 less than Andrews and 192 less than Kelce

[Stinger226]

DE is a question mark with depth:  Dayo and Sweat are our starters. (Austin Booker-Dom Robinson-Xaiver Calton-Dainel Hardy-Jamree Kromah-Jereme Robinson are our backups. Also Shemar Turner and Gervon Dexter could take some snaps outside. 

Dayo 6-5 282

Sweat 6-5 273

Austin 6-4 258

Dom 6-5 275

Xaiver 6-6 273

Hardy 6-2 260

Kromah 6-3 268

Jereme 6-3 258

Shemar 6-3 293

Dexter 6-4 326

We have many players with the size to play the DA DE position. So who could be a breakout player we are not counting on. As BJ stated I think Dom could be that guy. 

[adam]

3 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Here is some interesting stats: Consider two years unded Fields and one under a rookie QB. 

Kmet has the 10th most yards of a TE the past 3 years and of those he has the 4th most TD's behind Kittle, Andrews and Kelce has 56 less trgts than Kittle, 29 less than Andrews and 192 less than Kelce

Kmet gets a lot of hate, but he did more with less than most TEs in the league. 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

3 hours ago, adam said:

Kmet gets a lot of hate, but he did more with less than most TEs in the league. 

If Keenan Allen was not here, this may not even be be in discussion. 

Allen was Caleb's safety blanket.  121 targets and 70 receptions. If his #1 read wasnt open, then all eyes went his direction.

DJ with 140 targets and 98 receptions 

Those target/reception percentages will improve with a better oline and Caleb being more settled.  Kmet has shown he can produce with less and will rebound if the QB has time, which I believe will happen.

[Mongo3451]

I'm growing weary of the second rounders holding out. I'm fully blaming the Seahawks for holding this process up.  We have the most to lose in this situation.  Our potential starting LT is being held up.  Then, we hear about Luther Burden needing motivation to stay in shape.  Lastly, our most explosive DT, when our greatest need is pass rush.  Rant over.  It's just sucks because these dudes are expected to get major minutes...

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:

I'm growing weary of the second rounders holding out. I'm fully blaming the Seahawks for holding this process up.  We have the most to lose in this situation.  Our potential starting LT is being held up.  Then, we hear about Luther Burden needing motivation to stay in shape.  Lastly, our most explosive DT, when our greatest need is pass rush.  Rant over.  It's just sucks because these dudes are expected to get major minutes...

i with you. of the 30 unsigned 3rd rounders, 3 of them are ours, or 10%.

What a massive pain in the ass.

[Stinger226]

Can they play if they arent signedz? Otherwise, it may be signing the minute camp starts. Poles isnt going to wrech what he built to blew up over a long holdout. Read somewhere all the agents on 2nd round picks that are banning together to force guarrantteed money. Probably BS. I doubt only a couple days at most.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

45 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Can they play if they arent signedz? Otherwise, it may be signing the minute camp starts. Poles isnt going to wrech what he built to blew up over a long holdout. Read somewhere all the agents on 2nd round picks that are banning together to force guarrantteed money. Probably BS. I doubt only a couple days at most.

Nope and they won't risk injury. I bet the owners are banning together too. Otherwise teams below Seattle might say screw it and pay the guy. 

[Mongo3451]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

Can they play if they arent signedz? Otherwise, it may be signing the minute camp starts. Poles isnt going to wrech what he built to blew up over a long holdout. Read somewhere all the agents on 2nd round picks that are banning together to force guarrantteed money. Probably BS. I doubt only a couple days at most.

The first two picks of the second round got guaranteed contracts like first rounders.  Now, the next guys up want the same.  It starts with Seahawks.  After that, the Browns with Judkins and we know he has issues.  If the dam breaks at the top, the rest will follow either way. I would love to see the Bears be trend setters and get our guys signed to guaranteed incentive based deals before the rest.  A creative GM could orchestrate this, especially with having three of the thirty two picks...

[BearFan PHX]

OK, first one to sign since the roadblock happened today.

DT Alfred Collins, who was taken 43rd (2nd round pick #10) signed a four year $10.3M deal with $9M of it guaranteed.

I think the players are going to mostly win this one. 9/10.3 is 87% guaranteed. And its not THAT much cap money.

Bears shouldnt get cute here. let 2 or 3 more sign, get a sense of whats going on and then match it.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/49ers-break-the-seal-on-second-round-signees-as-alfred-collins-contract-may-pave-way-for-others-to-sign/

[DABEARSDABOMB]

25 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

OK, first one to sign since the roadblock happened today.

DT Alfred Collins, who was taken 43rd (2nd round pick #10) signed a four year $10.3M deal with $9M of it guaranteed.

I think the players are going to mostly win this one. 9/10.3 is 87% guaranteed. And its not THAT much cap money.

Bears shouldnt get cute here. let 2 or 3 more sign, get a sense of whats going on and then match it.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/49ers-break-the-seal-on-second-round-signees-as-alfred-collins-contract-may-pave-way-for-others-to-sign/

Spot on 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

3 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

OK, first one to sign since the roadblock happened today.

DT Alfred Collins, who was taken 43rd (2nd round pick #10) signed a four year $10.3M deal with $9M of it guaranteed.

I think the players are going to mostly win this one. 9/10.3 is 87% guaranteed. And its not THAT much cap money.

Bears shouldnt get cute here. let 2 or 3 more sign, get a sense of whats going on and then match it.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/49ers-break-the-seal-on-second-round-signees-as-alfred-collins-contract-may-pave-way-for-others-to-sign/

Im 50/50 on this.  It will make teams be a little more cautious which is good, but it gives players who dont give a sh!t protection.   

The Bears better win quick bc once they go on stream only, im done.  I believe that is 2027.  Im rural and not paying for satellite internet to stream and paying subscriptions. 

[Stinger226]

8 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

OK, first one to sign since the roadblock happened today.

DT Alfred Collins, who was taken 43rd (2nd round pick #10) signed a four year $10.3M deal with $9M of it guaranteed.

I think the players are going to mostly win this one. 9/10.3 is 87% guaranteed. And its not THAT much cap money.

Bears shouldnt get cute here. let 2 or 3 more sign, get a sense of whats going on and then match it.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/49ers-break-the-seal-on-second-round-signees-as-alfred-collins-contract-may-pave-way-for-others-to-sign/

 

[BearFan PHX]

The guy in the video you just posted didnt understand the guaranteed money issue.

Thankfully the 49ers DT signed, and that opened up the possibilities for everyone that signed below him.

he's pretending that nothing happened, and this is all normal based on the date on the calendar, but he's wrong. There was a logjam, and as far as I know there still is for picks 3 thru 9 in the 2nd round. So it was real. He is 100% wrong, and who the hell is he anyway?

Let's also see what % of these contracts are guaranteed vs last year.

You watch a lot of nonsense dude.
 

 

[Mongo3451]

2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

The guy in the video you just posted didnt understand the guaranteed money issue.

It was also irrelevant, as it was made before June mini camps.

[Stinger226]

5 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

The guy in the video you just posted didnt understand the guaranteed money issue.

Thankfully the 49ers DT signed, and that opened up the possibilities for everyone that signed below him.

he's pretending that nothing happened, and this is all normal based on the date on the calendar, but he's wrong. There was a logjam, and as far as I know there still is for picks 3 thru 9 in the 2nd round. So it was real. He is 100% wrong, and who the hell is he anyway?

Let's also see what % of these contracts are guaranteed vs last year.

You watch a lot of nonsense dude.
 

 

I dont base my viewing choices on whether you like them or not. You have to watch the video before you decide if its worth sharing. I shared it because it addressed exactly what Mongo was talking about on the 2nd round picks. Plus retired and just out of the hospital , have a lot of free time. Oh by the way I dont care for Dr Phil and you subscribe to that. 

((I just rewatched  it and now understand why you were whining about it. He did not call you stupid he was just refering to a group of fans blowing (not being signed ) out of proportion.  He even apoligized for using a word you use all the time to degrad people. ))

[BearFan PHX]

No it was just stupid. The 2nd rounders absolutely were waiting for the teams to offer them fully guaranteed money, or a player to sign with out it. They were all log jammed. He was just wrong. He seems like some rando who has no idea what hes talking about. I dont know why you posted it, I assume you agreed with it which is why you posted it.

And if you agreed that the 2nd round logjam was made up and not real, then that's some really deep level nonsense. Picks 3 thru 9 are still unsigned, including Burton.

Anyway, you can see the Ian Rappaport tweet I shared, so if you still think it was made up, I dont know what to tell you.

And since you quoted my explanation of the issue above, I assume you also think this somehow rebutted what i was saying. So that's pretty dumb too.

What I said was true, and again, its not because Im some amazing NFL insider - the story has pretty much been everywhere. Im kinda baffled why you even did that, but if you think it's not real, then enjoy that. I dont know what to say.

[jason]

On 7/3/2025 at 6:52 AM, adam said:

Kmet gets a lot of hate, but he did more with less than most TEs in the league. 

Which is why I hate the TE pick this year.

[BearFan PHX]

In Ben Johnson we (currently?) trust

[Stinger226]

8 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

No it was just stupid. The 2nd rounders absolutely were waiting for the teams to offer them fully guaranteed money, or a player to sign with out it. They were all log jammed. He was just wrong. He seems like some rando who has no idea what hes talking about. I dont know why you posted it, I assume you agreed with it which is why you posted it.

And if you agreed that the 2nd round logjam was made up and not real, then that's some really deep level nonsense. Picks 3 thru 9 are still unsigned, including Burton.

Anyway, you can see the Ian Rappaport tweet I shared, so if you still think it was made up, I dont know what to tell you.

And since you quoted my explanation of the issue above, I assume you also think this somehow rebutted what i was saying. So that's pretty dumb too.

What I said was true, and again, its not because Im some amazing NFL insider - the story has pretty much been everywhere. Im kinda baffled why you even did that, but if you think it's not real, then enjoy that. I dont know what to say.

His point was about people getting upset about players holding out, that it will happen normally when training camp starts. He wasnt staticically tried to prove a theorm. Everything I say or anything I post you just go out of your way to say something negative about it. Then your response was (you think this , you think that) all off of just posting a video that stated people dont need to get excited, they will be signed when training camp starts. I was being scarastic in saying he was refering to you. It wasnt some counterpoint to a statement. 

Have an opinion , call it stupid, nonsensical but its always about taking a shot at me.   (You watch a lot of nonsense dude)   You just never stop . I worked connstruction my whole life, and learned how to co- exist with people like you. Let me say again, I dont know what your agenda is but I aint going anywhere. If everything I say or everything I do irritates you, have fun in your delusional sense of reality.