Week 1 Official Game Thread - MIN @ CHI, MNF, 9/8, 7:15PM CDT, CHI -1.5 O/U 43.5, ABC

[adam]

Minnesota will be without Jordan Addison for this one. 

On the injury front, we know the Bears will be without Booker. The team is still hopeful to have Jaylon Johnson back to match up with Justin Jefferson. Both of those two are dinged up right now.

I could see a heavy dose of Aaron Jones and TJ Hockenson in Week 1. LBs will play a huge role in stopping them.

The pros for the Bears is playing on MNF at home, Soldier Field should be electric. Getting off to a hot start is key. McCarthy is basically a rookie.

Caleb played well against MIN last year all things considered, he had 531 passing yards (265 yds/g), 3 TD, 0 INT, and 5 sacks in two games against MIN. Ben Johnson's offenses play really well against MIN, in the last 3 seasons, DET has put up 31, 31, 30, 30,  going 4-0 against them and a Flores led defense. So I am less concerned about the offense than I am about the defense and Special Teams.

Early prediction, Bears 27-20.

[Bears4Ever_34]

I tend to think this becomes a defensive struggle for both teams with the Bears narrowly winning because McCarthy turns the ball over more than our quarterback. I imagine it playing out very similarly to week 1 last year, hopefully with not as inept QB play from Caleb. I might be on suicide watch if he throws for under 100 yards again, and McCarthy outplays him in his first career start.

Early prediction: Bears 20 Vikings 17, offense rallies from down 13-17 in the 4th and the defense holds at the end.

[Mongo3451]

25 minutes ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

Early prediction: Bears 20 Vikings 17, offense rallies from down 13-17 in the 4th and the defense holds at the end.

I hope we're not down to the end in the 4th.  My stomach would be in my throat.

[Bears4Ever_34]

3 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

I hope we're not down to the end in the 4th.  My stomach would be in my throat.

Me too. I'm hedging my Bears cynicism with a QB making his first career start on the road. If they win, it probably won't look pretty. The only thing I'd be shocked by is if either team won in a blowout.

[Stinger226]

55 minutes ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

Me too. I'm hedging my Bears cynicism with a QB making his first career start on the road. If they win, it probably won't look pretty. The only thing I'd be shocked by is if either team won in a blowout.

The first game is home. Detroit is a road game 

[BearFan PHX]

3 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

The first game is home. Detroit is a road game 

he was talking about McCarthy, Williams isnt making his first career start.

[adam]

McCarthy will be making his first NFL start, on the road, season opener, on MNF.

Here is how the other QBs did in their first start:

Daniels 17-24, 184 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT - Loss
Williams 14-29, 93 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT - Win
Maye 20-33, 243 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT - Loss
Penix 18-27, 202 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT - Win

Average of 180 yds, 0.75 TD and 0.75 INT. So McCarthy throwing for 180 with 1 TD and 1 INT is probably the bar. Unless their running game goes off, that won't be enough for a win.

I am revising my score to 24-17, Bears get 3 tuddies and a short Santos kick, Vikings get 1 passing, 1 rushing TD, and a FG. I would bracket Jefferson, and force McCarthy to beat them with his 2nd or 3rd read. 

[Bears4Ever_34]

1 hour ago, adam said:

McCarthy will be making his first NFL start, on the road, season opener, on MNF.

Here is how the other QBs did in their first start:

Daniels 17-24, 184 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT - Loss
Williams 14-29, 93 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT - Win
Maye 20-33, 243 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT - Loss
Penix 18-27, 202 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT - Win

Average of 180 yds, 0.75 TD and 0.75 INT. So McCarthy throwing for 180 with 1 TD and 1 INT is probably the bar. Unless their running game goes off, that won't be enough for a win.

I am revising my score to 24-17, Bears get 3 tuddies and a short Santos kick, Vikings get 1 passing, 1 rushing TD, and a FG. I would bracket Jefferson, and force McCarthy to beat them with his 2nd or 3rd read. 

Worried about their run/play action game. Aaron Jones always kills them.

[AZ54]

Odd strategy for a preseason with a new QB.  

https://vikingswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/vikings/2025/08/22/studs-and-duds-from-the-vikings-preseason-finale-against-the-titans/85789643007/

“Well, that wasn't the best ending to the preseason.

In a game that was not very good for the majority of the roster, the team now limps into the regular season on a two-game losing streak from the preseason. Of course, the majority of starters never played in the preseason, including starting quarterback J.J. McCarthy, who appeared in the first game but hasn't been since as the team protects him.”

[Stinger226]

5 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Odd strategy for a preseason with a new QB.  

https://vikingswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/vikings/2025/08/22/studs-and-duds-from-the-vikings-preseason-finale-against-the-titans/85789643007/

“Well, that wasn't the best ending to the preseason.

In a game that was not very good for the majority of the roster, the team now limps into the regular season on a two-game losing streak from the preseason. Of course, the majority of starters never played in the preseason, including starting quarterback J.J. McCarthy, who appeared in the first game but hasn't been since as the team protects him.”

I dont usually look at the Viking websites but do a lot of GB content. I always like to see what pundits and fans think of their teams as we do here. This article is a good view of Viking flavor. There is one podcast that has a fan from each fan base that discusses the NFC North and it gets interesting. I'll try to find it and post it. Of all the fan bases you can guess which one has the most inflated egos.  

[adam]

9 hours ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

Worried about their run/play action game. Aaron Jones always kills them.

Yep, and those pin and pull rollouts to the flat. For some reason the Bears never get a defender over there in time, they always bite, and it is good for 7-8 yards every damn time.

[adam]

Looking over some numbers between the MIN DEF and CHI DEF from last year. Surprisingly, CHI had a higher QBP% at 36.5% to 35.7%, only allowed one more TD (37 to 36), and CHI allowed fewer passing yards per game (218 to 242). MIN actually allowed the 5th most yards through the air in 2024, but they were stout against the run (2nd). This sort of plays into the Bears strengths as the WR/TE rooms are close to elite compared to the RB room. 

[AZ54]

5 minutes ago, adam said:

Looking over some numbers between the MIN DEF and CHI DEF from last year. Surprisingly, CHI had a higher QBP% at 36.5% to 35.7%, only allowed one more TD (37 to 36), and CHI allowed fewer passing yards per game (218 to 242). MIN actually allowed the 5th most yards through the air in 2024, but they were stout against the run (2nd). This sort of plays into the Bears strengths as the WR/TE rooms are close to elite compared to the RB room. 

All the smoke and mirrors they use at the LOS pre-snap means defenders are out of position.  We have the WR talent to exploit that.  We need Caleb to figure it out quickly too.  Fortunately Ben Johnson is no stranger to their tricks.  Being at home where our players can hear each other helps a lot too.