Week 1 Official Game Thread - MIN @ CHI, MNF, 9/8, 7:15PM CDT, CHI -1.5 O/U 43.5, ABC

[adam]

Minnesota will be without Jordan Addison for this one. 

On the injury front, we know the Bears will be without Booker. The team is still hopeful to have Jaylon Johnson back to match up with Justin Jefferson. Both of those two are dinged up right now.

I could see a heavy dose of Aaron Jones and TJ Hockenson in Week 1. LBs will play a huge role in stopping them.

The pros for the Bears is playing on MNF at home, Soldier Field should be electric. Getting off to a hot start is key. McCarthy is basically a rookie.

Caleb played well against MIN last year all things considered, he had 531 passing yards (265 yds/g), 3 TD, 0 INT, and 5 sacks in two games against MIN. Ben Johnson's offenses play really well against MIN, in the last 3 seasons, DET has put up 31, 31, 30, 30,  going 4-0 against them and a Flores led defense. So I am less concerned about the offense than I am about the defense and Special Teams.

Early prediction, Bears 27-20.

[Bears4Ever_34]

I tend to think this becomes a defensive struggle for both teams with the Bears narrowly winning because McCarthy turns the ball over more than our quarterback. I imagine it playing out very similarly to week 1 last year, hopefully with not as inept QB play from Caleb. I might be on suicide watch if he throws for under 100 yards again, and McCarthy outplays him in his first career start.

Early prediction: Bears 20 Vikings 17, offense rallies from down 13-17 in the 4th and the defense holds at the end.

[Mongo3451]

25 minutes ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

Early prediction: Bears 20 Vikings 17, offense rallies from down 13-17 in the 4th and the defense holds at the end.

I hope we're not down to the end in the 4th.  My stomach would be in my throat.

[Bears4Ever_34]

3 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

I hope we're not down to the end in the 4th.  My stomach would be in my throat.

Me too. I'm hedging my Bears cynicism with a QB making his first career start on the road. If they win, it probably won't look pretty. The only thing I'd be shocked by is if either team won in a blowout.

[Stinger226]

55 minutes ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

Me too. I'm hedging my Bears cynicism with a QB making his first career start on the road. If they win, it probably won't look pretty. The only thing I'd be shocked by is if either team won in a blowout.

The first game is home. Detroit is a road game 

[BearFan PHX]

3 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

The first game is home. Detroit is a road game 

he was talking about McCarthy, Williams isnt making his first career start.

[adam]

McCarthy will be making his first NFL start, on the road, season opener, on MNF.

Here is how the other QBs did in their first start:

Daniels 17-24, 184 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT - Loss
Williams 14-29, 93 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT - Win
Maye 20-33, 243 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT - Loss
Penix 18-27, 202 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT - Win

Average of 180 yds, 0.75 TD and 0.75 INT. So McCarthy throwing for 180 with 1 TD and 1 INT is probably the bar. Unless their running game goes off, that won't be enough for a win.

I am revising my score to 24-17, Bears get 3 tuddies and a short Santos kick, Vikings get 1 passing, 1 rushing TD, and a FG. I would bracket Jefferson, and force McCarthy to beat them with his 2nd or 3rd read. 

[Bears4Ever_34]

1 hour ago, adam said:

McCarthy will be making his first NFL start, on the road, season opener, on MNF.

Here is how the other QBs did in their first start:

Daniels 17-24, 184 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT - Loss
Williams 14-29, 93 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT - Win
Maye 20-33, 243 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT - Loss
Penix 18-27, 202 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT - Win

Average of 180 yds, 0.75 TD and 0.75 INT. So McCarthy throwing for 180 with 1 TD and 1 INT is probably the bar. Unless their running game goes off, that won't be enough for a win.

I am revising my score to 24-17, Bears get 3 tuddies and a short Santos kick, Vikings get 1 passing, 1 rushing TD, and a FG. I would bracket Jefferson, and force McCarthy to beat them with his 2nd or 3rd read. 

Worried about their run/play action game. Aaron Jones always kills them.

[AZ54]

Odd strategy for a preseason with a new QB.  

https://vikingswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/vikings/2025/08/22/studs-and-duds-from-the-vikings-preseason-finale-against-the-titans/85789643007/

“Well, that wasn't the best ending to the preseason.

In a game that was not very good for the majority of the roster, the team now limps into the regular season on a two-game losing streak from the preseason. Of course, the majority of starters never played in the preseason, including starting quarterback J.J. McCarthy, who appeared in the first game but hasn't been since as the team protects him.”

[Stinger226]

5 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Odd strategy for a preseason with a new QB.  

https://vikingswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/vikings/2025/08/22/studs-and-duds-from-the-vikings-preseason-finale-against-the-titans/85789643007/

“Well, that wasn't the best ending to the preseason.

In a game that was not very good for the majority of the roster, the team now limps into the regular season on a two-game losing streak from the preseason. Of course, the majority of starters never played in the preseason, including starting quarterback J.J. McCarthy, who appeared in the first game but hasn't been since as the team protects him.”

I dont usually look at the Viking websites but do a lot of GB content. I always like to see what pundits and fans think of their teams as we do here. This article is a good view of Viking flavor. There is one podcast that has a fan from each fan base that discusses the NFC North and it gets interesting. I'll try to find it and post it. Of all the fan bases you can guess which one has the most inflated egos.  

[adam]

9 hours ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

Worried about their run/play action game. Aaron Jones always kills them.

Yep, and those pin and pull rollouts to the flat. For some reason the Bears never get a defender over there in time, they always bite, and it is good for 7-8 yards every damn time.

[adam]

Looking over some numbers between the MIN DEF and CHI DEF from last year. Surprisingly, CHI had a higher QBP% at 36.5% to 35.7%, only allowed one more TD (37 to 36), and CHI allowed fewer passing yards per game (218 to 242). MIN actually allowed the 5th most yards through the air in 2024, but they were stout against the run (2nd). This sort of plays into the Bears strengths as the WR/TE rooms are close to elite compared to the RB room. 

[AZ54]

5 minutes ago, adam said:

Looking over some numbers between the MIN DEF and CHI DEF from last year. Surprisingly, CHI had a higher QBP% at 36.5% to 35.7%, only allowed one more TD (37 to 36), and CHI allowed fewer passing yards per game (218 to 242). MIN actually allowed the 5th most yards through the air in 2024, but they were stout against the run (2nd). This sort of plays into the Bears strengths as the WR/TE rooms are close to elite compared to the RB room. 

All the smoke and mirrors they use at the LOS pre-snap means defenders are out of position.  We have the WR talent to exploit that.  We need Caleb to figure it out quickly too.  Fortunately Ben Johnson is no stranger to their tricks.  Being at home where our players can hear each other helps a lot too.  

[Stinger226]

16 hours ago, AZ54 said:

All the smoke and mirrors they use at the LOS pre-snap means defenders are out of position.  We have the WR talent to exploit that.  We need Caleb to figure it out quickly too.  Fortunately Ben Johnson is no stranger to their tricks.  Being at home where our players can hear each other helps a lot too.  

I dont know if we did enough this year to beat Minny but having a rookie QB will help. Jefferson is not 100% yet and Addison will not be playing. BJ has did well against the Vikings in the past so I think he knows how to scheme a lot of success for us. The big key is will Caleb get the ball out quick because clearly in the preseason targets were open a lot. I think we could win this game but we may not be ready in the first game . I think after the bye week we will look much better.

[adam]

34 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I dont know if we did enough this year to beat Minny but having a rookie QB will help. Jefferson is not 100% yet and Addison will not be playing. BJ has did well against the Vikings in the past so I think he knows how to scheme a lot of success for us. The big key is will Caleb get the ball out quick because clearly in the preseason targets were open a lot. I think we could win this game but we may not be ready in the first game . I think after the bye week we will look much better.

Crazy to see this sequence again. Bears down by 10 with 1:11, scored 10 pts in 19 seconds and still lost in OT. This was in the middle of the losing streak.

With Johnson, there is no way the Bears lose this game. This was a Flus special. 

[BearFan PHX]

The Vegas line right now seems to be Vikings at home are favored 1 to 1.5 points.

That means at a neutral site, we would be favored.

Any time you're within 3 points, coaching could easily win or lose the game. Obviously coaching is always important, but within 1.5 points, it matters even more.

I really need to see a pass rush. Please football gods.

[Mongo3451]

2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

I really need to see a pass rush. Please football gods.

I believe you will.  The D has played the vanilla scheme.  DA doesn't do vanilla...

[BearFan PHX]

50 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

I believe you will.  The D has played the vanilla scheme.  DA doesn't do vanilla...

right. and with the line only being 1 or 1.5 this is anyones game

[BearFan PHX]

OK so based on WAY too little information, Im gonna predict

Bears 24
Vikings 19 or 20

[AZ54]

Prelude to what we should see on MNF

 

[BearFan PHX]

4 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Prelude to what we should see on MNF

 

good one. Let's hope swift can break those tackles so the LBers have to bite down and the crossing routes are open on playaction.

[Stinger226]

4 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Prelude to what we should see on MNF

 

This guy makes some good points. Good video

[adam]

On 8/31/2025 at 6:11 PM, BearFan PHX said:

The Vegas line right now seems to be Vikings at home are favored 1 to 1.5 points.

That means at a neutral site, we would be favored.

Any time you're within 3 points, coaching could easily win or lose the game. Obviously coaching is always important, but within 1.5 points, it matters even more.

I really need to see a pass rush. Please football gods.

So the line has moved 3 pts in MIN favor since the opening line. Odd considering their true WR2 is suspended, Jefferson has been dealing with a hamstring issue, and Nailor, their projected WR3 has a hand injury. So it seems like there is going to be a lot of Jones and Hockenson, putting a lot of pressure on the LBs. Since the swap, I actually like both Edwards and Edmunds better.

[adam]

I wanted to see how Dennis Allen's defenses have played to start a season, and they normally start out pretty hot. Here are Dennis Allen's last 5 Week 1 Games (5-0):

2024 - 47-10 CAR, Young 13-30, 161 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT, 4 Sacks, Hubbard 6-14 rushing.
2023 - 16-15 TEN, Tannehill 16-34, 198 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT, 3 Sacks, Henry 15-63 rushing.
2022 - 27-26 ATL, Mariota 20-33, 215 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 0 Sacks, Patterson 22-120 rushing, 1 TD.
2021 - 38-3 GB, Rodgers 15-28, 133 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT, 1 Sack, Jones 5-9 rushing. 
2020 - 34-23 TB, Brady 23-36, 239 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT, 3 Sacks, Jones 17-66 rushing. 

• 5 games, only 2 Passing TDs allowed, but 9 Interceptions, and 11 Sacks.
• No QB passed for more than 239 yds (T. Brady)
• 4 out of 5 games had 2+ INTs
• 3 out of 5 games had 3+ Sacks
• Only 1 rusher over 70 yds (Cordarelle Patterson lol)

I also looked at how Aaron Jones played against Dennis Allen defenses. In his last two games against Allen, Jones is 21-78 yds, 1 TD, and 4-30 receiving. 

In the 3 seasons Johnson was OC for DET, they are 2-1 in season openers. They lost to PHI 38-35, beat KC 21-20, and beat LAR 26-20. All 3 games had super tough defenses to deal with and they still averaged 27.3 a game, while Dennis Allen defenses allowed an average of 15.4 pts per game over the last 5 seasons. 

On the flip side, KOC's Vikings beat GB 23-7 in 2022 (Donatell DC), lost 20-17 against TB (Flores DC) in 2023, and beat NYG 28-6 last season. So KOC's offenses have averaged 23.6 per game in Week 1, and Flores' defenses have averaged 13 pts per game allowed over the last two seasons.  However, Johnson's offenses, in 4 games, have never scored under 30 pts against a Flores defense. The Eagles, Packers, and Rams have scored 30+ on a MIN+Flores team each once, but Johnson's Lions were 4 for 4 over the last two years. So Ben knows something. One time could be a fluke. Two times, there is smoke. 3 times? Fire, but 4 out of 4? Inferno.

[Mongo3451]

7 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Prelude to what we should see on MNF

 

Good stuff.  There's only one Jamir Gibbs though.  Swift can hopefully bust some good runs.  BJ should know...