BearFan PHX Posted 5 hours ago Report Share Posted 5 hours ago 5 hours ago, adam said: So the line has moved 3 pts in MIN favor since the opening line. Odd considering their true WR2 is suspended, Jefferson has been dealing with a hamstring issue, and Nailor, their projected WR3 has a hand injury. So it seems like there is going to be a lot of Jones and Hockenson, putting a lot of pressure on the LBs. Since the swap, I actually like both Edwards and Edmunds better. so the line originally was Vikings by 3.5, and now its vikings by 1.5 or 1 - that means they needed to adjust the line to get more $ on the Vikings side. It means bettors are enamored with Ben Johnson and probably over confident in him? The opening line is closer to what Vegas THINKS will happen, and then the activity of the bettors adjusts it from there. Obviously too many people took Chicago and 3.5 points, so they dropped the line. So I guess Vegas saw the Bears as 3 point dogs, and the people disagreed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted 4 hours ago Author Report Share Posted 4 hours ago 26 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said: so the line originally was Vikings by 3.5, and now its vikings by 1.5 or 1 - that means they needed to adjust the line to get more $ on the Vikings side. It means bettors are enamored with Ben Johnson and probably over confident in him? The opening line is closer to what Vegas THINKS will happen, and then the activity of the bettors adjusts it from there. Obviously too many people took Chicago and 3.5 points, so they dropped the line. So I guess Vegas saw the Bears as 3 point dogs, and the people disagreed. The line opened with Bears -1.5, which is what it was when I created the thread. Since then it has gone 3pts in MIN's favor. So people have been putting more money on MIN as they are now giving pts to the Bears. Bears +1.5 is actually a pretty good bet right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted 4 hours ago Report Share Posted 4 hours ago 25 minutes ago, adam said: The line opened with Bears -1.5, which is what it was when I created the thread. Since then it has gone 3pts in MIN's favor. So people have been putting more money on MIN as they are now giving pts to the Bears. Bears +1.5 is actually a pretty good bet right now. wild, when I googled it said 5 days ago it was Vikings by 3.5, so that's why I said what I did. What you saw is, as you rightly say, the other way, and probably predates my 5 days ago. So then yes based on your report, not enough bettors were betting on the Bears. I think Vegas gets it right on the initial line, and then people get involved LOL Sometimes groups of people are extremely smart, better than experts, so hopefully not in this case. Sometimes narratives distort the group processing, which is what i hope is happening here. Do you have a link that shows the Bears were favored? Anyway, regardless of Vegas, I'm still saying Bears 24 Vikings 19 or 20. 17 wont be enough without a consistent pass rush from the front four. Hope Jarrett makes a big difference! The Vikings generally have a very good run defense, but Johnson seems to know exactly how to exploit it based on AZ's post in the podcasts thread. Assuming of course that Swift can find some of the same things that Gibbs does in that video. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted 4 hours ago Report Share Posted 4 hours ago Swift is not a top 10 RB type in the league but last time he played for BJ, he had 99-542-5 and 48 rec-389-3. I also think we are discounting any effect Eric Bieniemy may have had in the RB room. I think Swift will be just fine for our run game. The key to the game will be the game calling of BJ vs the DC . BJ has did well against Brian Flores. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted 4 hours ago Report Share Posted 4 hours ago Just now, Stinger226 said: Swift is not a top 10 RB type in the league but last time he played for BJ, he had 99-542-5 and 48 rec-389-3. I also think we are discounting any effect Eric Bieniemy may have had in the RB room. I think Swift will be just fine for our run game. The key to the game will be the game calling of BJ vs the DC . BJ has did well against Brian Flores. 23-20 Bears. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted 4 hours ago Report Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 minute ago, Stinger226 said: 23-20 Bears. Im saying 24-19 or 20 Bears, so we are in the same ballpark. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted 3 hours ago Report Share Posted 3 hours ago 4 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said: Im saying 24-19 or 20 Bears, so we are in the same ballpark. I wanted 24-20 but you already stated it. So I changed up a little. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted 3 hours ago Report Share Posted 3 hours ago 15 minutes ago, Stinger226 said: I wanted 24-20 but you already stated it. So I changed up a little. lol dude its Ok for us to agree. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted 2 hours ago Author Report Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said: Do you have a link that shows the Bears were favored? Most of the sites overwrite the current odds, but leave the "Open" odds. So that is the only place I see the Bears -1.5 now is in the open column like in the pick. Then you can see all the others are swapped to +1.5 for the Bears. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted 1 hour ago Report Share Posted 1 hour ago 38 minutes ago, adam said: Most of the sites overwrite the current odds, but leave the "Open" odds. So that is the only place I see the Bears -1.5 now is in the open column like in the pick. Then you can see all the others are swapped to +1.5 for the Bears. wow! so Vegas opened us as favorites on the road. Thats good news. All of this says this is anyone's game. Lets go! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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