Week 1 Official Game Thread - MIN @ CHI, MNF, 9/8, 7:15PM CDT, CHI -1.5 O/U 43.5, ABC

[BearFan PHX]

5 hours ago, adam said:

So the line has moved 3 pts in MIN favor since the opening line. Odd considering their true WR2 is suspended, Jefferson has been dealing with a hamstring issue, and Nailor, their projected WR3 has a hand injury. So it seems like there is going to be a lot of Jones and Hockenson, putting a lot of pressure on the LBs. Since the swap, I actually like both Edwards and Edmunds better.

so the line originally was Vikings by 3.5, and now its vikings by 1.5 or 1 - that means they needed to adjust the line to get more $ on the Vikings side. It means bettors are enamored with Ben Johnson and probably over confident in him?

The opening line is closer to what Vegas THINKS will happen, and then the activity of the bettors adjusts it from there. Obviously too many people took Chicago and 3.5 points, so they dropped the line.

So I guess Vegas saw the Bears as 3 point dogs, and the people disagreed.

[adam]

26 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

so the line originally was Vikings by 3.5, and now its vikings by 1.5 or 1 - that means they needed to adjust the line to get more $ on the Vikings side. It means bettors are enamored with Ben Johnson and probably over confident in him?

The opening line is closer to what Vegas THINKS will happen, and then the activity of the bettors adjusts it from there. Obviously too many people took Chicago and 3.5 points, so they dropped the line.

So I guess Vegas saw the Bears as 3 point dogs, and the people disagreed.

The line opened with Bears -1.5, which is what it was when I created the thread. Since then it has gone 3pts in MIN's favor. So people have been putting more money on MIN as they are now giving pts to the Bears. Bears +1.5 is actually a pretty good bet right now. 

[BearFan PHX]

25 minutes ago, adam said:

The line opened with Bears -1.5, which is what it was when I created the thread. Since then it has gone 3pts in MIN's favor. So people have been putting more money on MIN as they are now giving pts to the Bears. Bears +1.5 is actually a pretty good bet right now. 

wild, when I googled it said 5 days ago it was Vikings by 3.5, so that's why I said what I did.

What you saw is, as you rightly say, the other way, and probably predates my 5 days ago.

So then yes based on your report, not enough bettors were betting on the Bears. I think Vegas gets it right on the initial line, and then people get involved LOL Sometimes groups of people are extremely smart, better than experts, so hopefully not in this case. Sometimes narratives distort the group processing, which is what i hope is happening here.

Do you have a link that shows the Bears were favored?

Anyway, regardless of Vegas, I'm still saying Bears 24 Vikings 19 or 20. 17 wont be enough without a consistent pass rush from the front four. Hope Jarrett makes a big difference!

The Vikings generally have a very good run defense, but Johnson seems to know exactly how to exploit it based on AZ's post in the podcasts thread. Assuming of course that Swift can find some of the same things that Gibbs does in that video.

[Stinger226]

Swift is not a top 10 RB type in the league but last time he played for BJ, he had 99-542-5 and 48 rec-389-3. I also think we are discounting any effect Eric Bieniemy may have had in the RB room. I think Swift will be just fine for our run game.

The key to the game will be the game calling of BJ vs the DC . BJ has did well against Brian Flores. 

[Stinger226]

Just now, Stinger226 said:

Swift is not a top 10 RB type in the league but last time he played for BJ, he had 99-542-5 and 48 rec-389-3. I also think we are discounting any effect Eric Bieniemy may have had in the RB room. I think Swift will be just fine for our run game.

The key to the game will be the game calling of BJ vs the DC . BJ has did well against Brian Flores. 

23-20 Bears.

[BearFan PHX]

1 minute ago, Stinger226 said:

23-20 Bears.

Im saying 24-19 or 20 Bears, so we are in the same ballpark.

[Stinger226]

4 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

Im saying 24-19 or 20 Bears, so we are in the same ballpark.

I wanted 24-20 but you already stated it. So I changed up a little.

[BearFan PHX]

15 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I wanted 24-20 but you already stated it. So I changed up a little.

lol dude its Ok for us to agree.

[adam]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

Do you have a link that shows the Bears were favored?
 

Most of the sites overwrite the current odds, but leave the "Open" odds. So that is the only place I see the Bears -1.5 now is in the open column like in the pick. Then you can see all the others are swapped to +1.5 for the Bears.

[BearFan PHX]

38 minutes ago, adam said:

Most of the sites overwrite the current odds, but leave the "Open" odds. So that is the only place I see the Bears -1.5 now is in the open column like in the pick. Then you can see all the others are swapped to +1.5 for the Bears.

wow! so Vegas opened us as favorites on the road. Thats good news.

All of this says this is anyone's game. Lets go!

[AZ54]

9 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

Good stuff.  There's only one Jamir Gibbs though.  Swift can hopefully bust some good runs.  BJ should know...

I was laughing as he was talking about Gibbs breaking tackles because he goes down easily.  Getting your hands on him in open space isn't easy but most of those plays were just really poor tackling.  

[adam]

3 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

wow! so Vegas opened us as favorites on the road. Thats good news.

All of this says this is anyone's game. Lets go!

Week 1 is in Chicago.

[BearFan PHX]

2 minutes ago, adam said:

Week 1 is in Chicago.

thank you, I had that backwards. Kind of makes more sense in terms of the vegas opening line then.

[Stinger226]

https://x.com/gmfb/status/1962863161335562277?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1962863161335562277|twgr^6c41a4c989bc27e4ad86386a05587e8b392811ca|twcon^s1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fbearswire.usatoday.com%2Fstory%2Fsports%2Fnfl%2Fbears%2F2025%2F09%2F03%2Fbears-bold-prediction-nfc-north-winners-kyle-brandt%2F85940221007%2F

[Stinger226]

A player got injured on the kickoff of the Eagles / Cowboys game. While they were waiting for the game to start, Jalen Carter walked up to Dak Prescott and spit in his face. Got ejected. WTF

[BearFan PHX]

1 minute ago, Stinger226 said:

A player got injured on the kickoff of the Eagles / Cowboys game. While they were waiting for the game to start, Jalen Carter walked up to Dak Prescott and spit in his face. Got ejected. WTF

I guess here comes the era where Carter shows why we didnt pick him.

[Stinger226]

1 minute ago, BearFan PHX said:

I guess here comes the era where Carter shows why we didnt pick him.

I thought playing for the Eagles , he would have matured by now but doesnt appear to be so.

[Mongo3451]

7 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

I guess here comes the era where Carter shows why we didnt pick him.

Amen! 

[Stinger226]

I didnt realize that Chirstian Darrisaw hasnt played in any preseason games and had limited practices. Coming off of knee surgery last year may not be ready to go. Addison out, JJefferson may not be at 100% and with Darrisaw possibly not playing , I feel a lot better about our chances. 

[adam]

Week 1 is gonna be ugly. After that game last night, a tale of two halves. Zero punts in the first half to 1 FG in the 2nd half. PHI's defense did not look that good, and their entire offense was Barkley or Hurts scrambling. For DAL, it was pretty much all Lamb on offense and he still had 4 drops, which is crazy. 

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Week 1 is gonna be ugly. After that game last night, a tale of two halves. Zero punts in the first half to 1 FG in the 2nd half. PHI's defense did not look that good, and their entire offense was Barkley or Hurts scrambling. For DAL, it was pretty much all Lamb on offense and he still had 4 drops, which is crazy. 

I think it will be similar, two teams running the ball a lot, lower scoring game. 

[AZ54]

2 hours ago, adam said:

Week 1 is gonna be ugly. After that game last night, a tale of two halves. Zero punts in the first half to 1 FG in the 2nd half. PHI's defense did not look that good, and their entire offense was Barkley or Hurts scrambling. For DAL, it was pretty much all Lamb on offense and he still had 4 drops, which is crazy. 

Saquon was the only player who stood out to me on both sides of the field.  I can say now I regret passing on him in FA because this offense with him and Ben Johnson would be elite.  He's one of those rare players that is just fun to watch.  

Prescott looked lost after his first read on most plays.  Hurts looked the same, constantly pulling the ball back down and staggering around the pocket before deciding to run.   It is just week 1 so a lot of that is normal but after the game Jerry Jones said he was very encouraged by the Cowboys performance and thought it was one of the best games he'd seen from Prescott.  He is clearly in damage control mode after the Parsons trade.   They have a lot of good players but I'm not overly concerned about playing them in Wk 3.  

[CrackerDog]

Bears win 27-17

[Mongo3451]

I'm looking forward to this game so badly, it's painful that it's on MNF.  Going back to Ben's first press conference, he said that he's going to taylor the offense to its talent.  He hasn't schemed for a top tier mobile QB yet, so I expect several wrinkles with Caleb's feet.  He hasn't had two above average TE's he can use in 12 personnel packages, so I expect that to be a higher ratio than what was used in Detroit.  He also hasn't had a DJ Moore or Luther Burden that are excellent as RAC guys, so I expect some mismatch razzle dazzle in the run game with those two.   

He doesn't have Jamir Gibbs and Jameson Williams type of speed to play with, but I think with what we have happening underneath, there are going to be a lot open shots for big gainers downfield.