Year 2 QB QBR Tracker

[adam]

1 hour ago, AZ54 said:

The fact he’s the only QB in NFL history to have just 12 INT in his first 1000 passes gives me a ton of confidence we drafted the right QB.  

and to think 2 of those were on tipped balls caught by the defender tipping the ball, which are still INTs, but not in the traditional bad throw sense.

[BearFan PHX]

5 hours ago, AZ54 said:

The fact he’s the only QB in NFL history to have just 12 INT in his first 1000 passes gives me a ton of confidence we drafted the right QB.  

I may be reading the stat wrong, but I think its over ANY consecutive 1,000 passes. For Caleb, it's his first. But if im reading it right, it's even more impressive.

And last year you had people saying Caleb should trhow more interceptions - probably the same ones who thought he never should have thrown the TD to Moore this week.

[adam]

37 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

I may be reading the stat wrong, but I think its over ANY consecutive 1,000 passes. For Caleb, it's his first. But if im reading it right, it's even more impressive.

And last year you had people saying Caleb should trhow more interceptions - probably the same ones who thought he never should have thrown the TD to Moore this week.

When I look it up that way, Rodgers has a couple of spans with an INT rate below 1.0% with over 1000 attempts (which would imply less than 10 INTs in 1K). Brady has a few as well.

However, when I do over 1K Passing Attempts, with an INT Rate of 1.2% or lower, to start a career, the only name that shows up is Caleb's:

https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/tiny/CIX7e

Even though Rodgers has the career best INT Rate of 1.432% of any QB with over 2,500 attempts, Brissett is fractionally better than Rodgers at 1.397% with way fewer attempts. So now that Williams is over 1K, there really is no comparison because it took Brissett 6 years to get to his 1K passing attempts, where he had 14 INTs in those first 1K. Brissett has basically maintained that pace up to his current 2,147 attempts, now with 30 INTs. 

Williams is at 1.175% with 12 INTs in 1,021 attempts. So he technically could throw 17 in his next 1,126 attempts and still be the best. 
 

[Mongo3451]

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/17uCR5yaef/

 

[Stinger226]

11 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/17uCR5yaef/

 

That family is always entertaining. Not sure the one at Texas now is next level type QB.

[adam]

Week 16

 

1. Maye - 83.5 QBR - 380 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 3 Sacks, 25 Rush Yds. 405 Total Yards. Won.
Season QBR: 73.4, 3,947 yards, 25-8 TD-INT, 46 Sacks, 4 Rush TD. (14g)

 

2. Williams - 81.0 QBR - 250 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 0 Sacks, 30 Rush Yds. 280 Total Yards. Won.
Season QBR: 56.7, 3,400 yards, 23-6 TD-INT, 23 Sacks, 3 Rush TD, 1 Rec TD. (15g)

 

3. Nix - 31.0 QBR - 352 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 1 Sack, 11 Rush Yds. 363 Total Yards. Lost. 
Season QBR: 59.2, 3,608 yards, 24-10 TD-INT, 17 Sacks, 4 Rush TD. (15g)

 

9. McCarthy - 38.1 QBR - 108 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, 3 Sacks, 20 Rush Yds, 1 Rush TD, 1 Fumble Lost. Won. 
Season QBR: 34.3, 1,450 yards, 11-12 TD-INT, 27 Sacks, 4 Rush TD, 1 FL. (9g)

[adam]

0 sacks taken by Williams, impressive even with Parsons out. He is averaging 2 TD passes over the last 5 weeks playing against GB, CLE, GB, PHI, and PIT. That is a tough gauntlet to go thru, 4-1 in those games, losing only to GB on the last play. 

[Bears4Ever_34]

Doesn't look like he's going to get 4,000 yards or 30 passing touchdowns this season, but 30+ total touchdowns is within the realm of possibility. I have to imagine that would be a record for this franchise. 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

Is that his best QBR in any game or did he top that in Browns game? I don’t know that I would have said it was his best or even top 2 game but he did have some pretty good balls given the conditions. 
 

Missed a few hot routes and there were 2 drops - one on a pretty deep pass. Also had the first down to Loveland take off the board on the Moore questionable penalty. 

[adam]

17 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Is that his best QBR in any game or did he top that in Browns game? I don’t know that I would have said it was his best or even top 2 game but he did have some pretty good balls given the conditions. 
 

Missed a few hot routes and there were 2 drops - one on a pretty deep pass. Also had the first down to Loveland take off the board on the Moore questionable penalty. 

DAL was his best QBR game, this game was his 2nd best. CLE was a top 5 game.

[adam]

Not to poo poo on other young QBs, but the MIN v NYG game is ugly.  Dart has 6 yards passing, an INT and 3 sacks in the 3rd Quarter. McCarthy is hurt again, and he left with 108 yards, 1 INT, and 1 fumble. 

[AZ54]

 

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, AZ54 said:

 

I just watched that and was going to post this. You beat me to it.

[Stinger226]

[adam]

2024 QB Class Totals:

1. Nix - 7,383 Pass Yds, 53 TD, 22 INT, 41 Sacks, 659 Rush Yds, 8 Rush TD, 8 4QC
2. Williams - 6,941 Pass Yds, 43 TD, 12 INT, 91 Sacks, 858 Rush Yds, 3 Rush TD, 1 Rec TD, 8 4QC
3. Maye - 6,223 Pass Yds, 40 TD, 18 INT, 80 Sacks, 808 Rush Yds, 6 Rush TD, 1 4QC
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4. Daniels - 4,830 Pass Yds, 33 TD, 12 INT, 65 Sacks, 1169 Rush Yds, 8 Rush TD, 4 4QC
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5. Rattler - 2,930 Pass Yds, 12 TD, 10 INT, 40 Sacks, 313 Rush Yds, 0 Rush TD, 0 4QC
6. Penix - 2,757 Pass Yds, 12 TD, 6 INT, 17 Sacks, 81 Rush Yds, 2 Rush TD, 0 4QC
9. McCarthy - 1,450 Pass Yds, 11 TD, 12 INT, 27 Sacks, 174 Rush Tds, 4 Rush TD, 1 4QC

Two interesting nuggets not in the stats, but in the splits. Williams has the highest Play-Action rate, 29%, compared to Maye at 19%, and Nix at 15% (almost double Nix). The splits are similar to Shotgun vs Under Center, where Williams has the most time Under Center at 37%, Maye at 30%, and Nix at 25%. 

Thru 32 potential games, Williams is 2nd in Pass Yds, 2nd in Pass TDs, 1st in INT%, 3rd in Sack%, 2nd in Rush Yds, and T-1st in 4QCs. 

The top tier is clearly Nix, Williams, and Maye, and all for different reasons. Daniels would be in there, but durability and injuries were always the risk.

I don't know what Atlanta or Minnesota were thinking moving off Cousins and Darnold for Penix and McCarthy were always head scratchers, and after Year 2, they look worse. Darnold is a top 5 QB and Cousins is at least serviceable. 

[adam]

There has never been a QB to pass for 7K Passing Yards, 45 Pass TDs, with 15 or fewer INTs in their first two seasons.

Williams needs 59 Pass Yds and 2 TDs without throwing 4 picks in the last 2 weeks to hit that mark. 

 

To break this down, there have only been 18 QBs to hit 7K, of those only 13 with 45 Pass TDs, and none with fewer than 17 INTs.

If you include Rushing Yards (800) and remove the INTs, the only QB left is Kyler Murray who had 7,693 Pass Yds, 46 TD, 24 INT, and 1,363 Rush Yards. Williams has half the INTs with 2 games to go. A 50% difference in any raw stat is massive.

 

Kind of funny, but Williams comps to Murray and Luck, while Nix comps to Bortles and Carr, for the first two years of their careers. 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

13 hours ago, adam said:

2024 QB Class Totals:

1. Nix - 7,383 Pass Yds, 53 TD, 22 INT, 41 Sacks, 659 Rush Yds, 8 Rush TD, 8 4QC
2. Williams - 6,941 Pass Yds, 43 TD, 12 INT, 91 Sacks, 858 Rush Yds, 3 Rush TD, 1 Rec TD, 8 4QC
3. Maye - 6,223 Pass Yds, 40 TD, 18 INT, 80 Sacks, 808 Rush Yds, 6 Rush TD, 1 4QC
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4. Daniels - 4,830 Pass Yds, 33 TD, 12 INT, 65 Sacks, 1169 Rush Yds, 8 Rush TD, 4 4QC
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5. Rattler - 2,930 Pass Yds, 12 TD, 10 INT, 40 Sacks, 313 Rush Yds, 0 Rush TD, 0 4QC
6. Penix - 2,757 Pass Yds, 12 TD, 6 INT, 17 Sacks, 81 Rush Yds, 2 Rush TD, 0 4QC
9. McCarthy - 1,450 Pass Yds, 11 TD, 12 INT, 27 Sacks, 174 Rush Tds, 4 Rush TD, 1 4QC

Two interesting nuggets not in the stats, but in the splits. Williams has the highest Play-Action rate, 29%, compared to Maye at 19%, and Nix at 15% (almost double Nix). The splits are similar to Shotgun vs Under Center, where Williams has the most time Under Center at 37%, Maye at 30%, and Nix at 25%. 

Thru 32 potential games, Williams is 2nd in Pass Yds, 2nd in Pass TDs, 1st in INT%, 3rd in Sack%, 2nd in Rush Yds, and T-1st in 4QCs. 

The top tier is clearly Nix, Williams, and Maye, and all for different reasons. Daniels would be in there, but durability and injuries were always the risk.

I don't know what Atlanta or Minnesota were thinking moving off Cousins and Darnold for Penix and McCarthy were always head scratchers, and after Year 2, they look worse. Darnold is a top 5 QB and Cousins is at least serviceable. 

I wonder if they moved them for the same reason the Bears did with Fields. They didn't want that player, who just had his replacement drafted, around to spoil their investment. 

[adam]

10 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

I wonder if they moved them for the same reason the Bears did with Fields. They didn't want that player, who just had his replacement drafted, around to spoil their investment. 

Possibly, but Cousins signed a 4-yr deal a month before they drafted Penix. Darnold also signed a one-year deal with Minnesota before they drafted McCarthy. The timing just seemed off on both of those deals. Then Minnesota doubled down on bad after McCarthy got hurt, Darnold led them to a 14-3 season, with 35 TD to 12 INT, over 4,300 yards, and instead of righting the wrong, they let him walk and roll with McCarthy. Darnold repeated his play with SEA, now 12-3 while MIN is 7-8 in last place and McCarthy is injured for the 4th time.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Possibly, but Cousins signed a 4-yr deal a month before they drafted Penix. Darnold also signed a one-year deal with Minnesota before they drafted McCarthy. The timing just seemed off on both of those deals. Then Minnesota doubled down on bad after McCarthy got hurt, Darnold led them to a 14-3 season, with 35 TD to 12 INT, over 4,300 yards, and instead of righting the wrong, they let him walk and roll with McCarthy. Darnold repeated his play with SEA, now 12-3 while MIN is 7-8 in last place and McCarthy is injured for the 4th time.

Darnold 1 year deal was very different than Cousins 4 year merge deal. Darnold was signed as a bridge and JJ got hurt and Sam played his butt off…no one expected that, but Sam struggled late which made the whole thing really difficult. 
 

JJ is getting written off too fast. Injuries are the question with him and he was healthy in college. But he has made a lot of progress last few weeks.