Week 6 Official Game Thread - CHI @ WAS, MNF, Oct 13, 8:15PM CDT, ABC, CHI +4.5

[adam]

The early line has the Bears as +4.5 Dogs coming out of the bye. I think the line will shift as we get closer and determine the health of Daniels and McLaurin. 

Washington plays in LA at 3:25pm on Sunday, so they have to travel back home, but get an extra day of rest for MNF. So they very well could be 2-3 heading into the matchup with the Bears.

The Commanders' offense is still putting up points, even with Mariota at QB. They scored 27 and lost to ATL, yet Mariota only threw for 156 yards. They had 147 rushing yards, which is what kept them in the game. The Bears need to shore up the run defense, especially if Daniels is back. 

Too early for predictions. Will do that after next Sunday. 

[Pixote]

This could be tough to call.

Bears have a week to rest and prepare. BUT:

The Bears rank dead last for run defense.

Washington ranks #2 in run offense (largely because of Daniels).

 

[adam]

9 hours ago, Pixote said:

This could be tough to call.

Bears have a week to rest and prepare. BUT:

The Bears rank dead last for run defense.

Washington ranks #2 in run offense (largely because of Daniels).

 

Ekeler was also lost for the season, and Daniels is coming back from injury. Seeing what he looks like this weekend will give us a better idea.

Getting Jarrett, Edwards, and Gordon back will help because they are all solid against the run.

[Pixote]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Ekeler was also lost for the season, and Daniels is coming back from injury. Seeing what he looks like this weekend will give us a better idea.

Getting Jarrett, Edwards, and Gordon back will help because they are all solid against the run.

I had forgotten about Ekeler. I did find this note in an article on NFL.com stating their opinion on each team's need leading up to the trade deadline. If correct, it could be a big game for Caleb:

Quote

No one in the Commanders’ secondary has played well, as they’ve been scorched repeatedly through the first month, allowing the sixth-most passing yards in the NFL (even with the Russell Wilson Week 1 reprieve). Marshon Lattimore has been wicked bad to start the season. Even if some of the penalties have been of the ticky-tack variety, he’s been picked on, giving up three plays of 15 or more yards in four games. The veteran has particularly struggled with pre-snap motion in man coverage, which teams will continue to exploit. 

 

[adam]

28 minutes ago, Pixote said:

I had forgotten about Ekeler. I did find this note in an article on NFL.com stating their opinion on each team's need leading up to the trade deadline. If correct, it could be a big game for Caleb:

 

WAS gives up the 9th most passing yards and are the 5th worst in EPA/Pass against. WAS has faced Wilson, Love, Smith, and Penix, and the last 3 threw for over 289 yards and combined for 7 TD and 1 INT in the last 3 games. 

Geno passed for 289 yards and 3 TDs against WAS and only 117 and 2 TDs against the Bears. 

So this is a favorable matchup.

[Stinger226]

Agree with everything you said Adam. Daniels will be back but his injuries is going to tone his run game down. A sprained knee tells me something is weak in the joint. 

A sprained knee occurs when the ligaments that support the knee joint are stretched or torn. 

Being we have a bad run defense, just keeping a running game under 130 would be a step in the right direction. The Ravens have 6 starters injured  and are terrible. People use the injuries as a reason. On a less talented defense the Bears have 4 starters out which 3 are suppose to come back. I think it will help a lot. 

Theo may not be good yet but he will get better as the OL jells together. Caleb getting the ball out quick makes up for a lot of shortcomings on the OL. Hopefully Wright is back. I think in the running game , Monangai will see more carries. If the OL steps up, I think we will see more pop out of him. Use Swift in outside zone runs and there again hope the OL has an awakening with their play.

[adam]

4 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Agree with everything you said Adam. Daniels will be back but his injuries is going to tone his run game down. A sprained knee tells me something is weak in the joint. 

A sprained knee occurs when the ligaments that support the knee joint are stretched or torn. 

Being we have a bad run defense, just keeping a running game under 130 would be a step in the right direction. The Ravens have 6 starters injured  and are terrible. People use the injuries as a reason. On a less talented defense the Bears have 4 starters out which 3 are suppose to come back. I think it will help a lot. 

Theo may not be good yet but he will get better as the OL jells together. Caleb getting the ball out quick makes up for a lot of shortcomings on the OL. Hopefully Wright is back. I think in the running game , Monangai will see more carries. If the OL steps up, I think we will see more pop out of him. Use Swift in outside zone runs and there again hope the OL has an awakening with their play.

We will see what he looks like this weekend against LAC. He is a completely different QB without his mobility.

[Mongo3451]

35 minutes ago, adam said:

We will see what he looks like this weekend against LAC. He is a completely different QB without his mobility.

I want us to beat him at his very best next week.

[BearFan PHX]

5 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

I want us to beat him at his very best next week.

Totally agree. I want a team that dominates, not one that wins by luck and injured opponents.

[Stinger226]

4 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Totally agree. I want a team that dominates, not one that wins by luck and injured opponents.

I agree but I'll take wins any way we can . Injures , getting lucky. Our dominate time is coming next year and the year after once Caleb is fully up to par. 

[BearFan PHX]

4 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I agree but I'll take wins any way we can . Injures , getting lucky. Our dominate time is coming next year and the year after once Caleb is fully up to par. 

Thats true, we dont have enough horses yet for that, especially at DL and HB, which were the same weaknesses most of us saw going into the draft too.

But ultimately, I want the other team's best, and to beat em anyway. Soundly and reliably.

We got a taste in 1985 of that kind of dominance, and I want it again. I think Ben Johnson might be enough of a maniac to get us there.

BJ is absolutely the right kind of coach. Im so glad we got him. I knew Vrabel was a hardass, but I never knew BJ was like this. BJ obviously has the Xs and Os advantage too, but he is a madman about winning, and that's fantastic for our team. I think he out Vrabel's Vrabel honestly, knowing what I know now.

[Stinger226]

8 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Thats true, we dont have enough horses yet for that, especially at DL and HB, which were the same weaknesses most of us saw going into the draft too.

But ultimately, I want the other team's best, and to beat em anyway. Soundly and reliably.

We got a taste in 1985 of that kind of dominance, and I want it again. I think Ben Johnson might be enough of a maniac to get us there.

BJ is absolutely the right kind of coach. Im so glad we got him. I knew Vrabel was a hardass, but I never knew BJ was like this. BJ obviously has the Xs and Os advantage too, but he is a madman about winning, and that's fantastic for our team. I think he out Vrabel's Vrabel honestly, knowing what I know now.

Totally agree, but if we arent good enough yet to dominates, I'll take a win .

[adam]

The good thing is Daniels didn't look that good vs LAC. The bad news is Croskey-Merritt and the WAS Defense did. I don't know what they did on defense, but they allowed 27, 24, then 34 before shutting the Chargers down with only 10 points. 

WAS is 3-0 when the hold the opponent to 24 or less, and are 0-2 when they allow 27 or more. 

CHI is basically the same, they are 2-0 when the opponent scores 24 or less, and 0-2 when they score 27 or more. 

So there is your script for this game. The team that scores 27 is going to win.

 

 

I don't like how good WAS is running the ball and how bad CHI is at run defense. The top 3 RBs all average over 5.0 YPC. With McLaurin out the main threat at WR is Deebo.

[Bears4Ever_34]

I would be shocked if the Bears defense can hold the Commanders under 350 yards of total offense. They gave up over 500 yards last year. The only way they can win, I think, is if they either have another 4 takeaway game, or they hold them to 3 instead of 7 when they get into the redzone—which is what they did last year.

The offense has to get back to starting games fast again. Play with a lead. It's time for Caleb Williams to show why he was the #1 pick. It's time to make a statement. I truly hope he's up for the task and we don't have to sit through another blowout with his accuracy continuing to look erratic.
 

 

[Pixote]

I saw this in an article on SI.com. A bit concerning, but hopefully we can reverse many of the negative trends this year.

Quote

"While the rest of the league used the week off to recharge and fine-tune their gameplans, Trestman, Nagy, Fox and Eberflus went 2-10 in the week following a bye," Chicago Sun-Times' Patrick Finley wrote. "That’s tied with the Jets for the worst record in the NFL. The Bears’ point differential of minus-96 is the second-worst in the league, too, behind the Jets."

 

[adam]

1 hour ago, Pixote said:

I saw this in an article on SI.com. A bit concerning, but hopefully we can reverse many of the negative trends this year.

 

Yeah, with most of those teams being bad outside of one season of Nagy and one of Trestman, I am sure you can find hundreds of common themes. 

When you are consistently bad, you will be bad pretty much everywhere. Opening game, before the bye, out of the bye. On the road, short week, MNF, etc.

When you are bad, you are bad. I don't know if 2-10 out of a bye is really telling when it also matters who they played out of the bye, at home, on the road, etc.

[adam]

9 hours ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

I would be shocked if the Bears defense can hold the Commanders under 350 yards of total offense. They gave up over 500 yards last year. The only way they can win, I think, is if they either have another 4 takeaway game, or they hold them to 3 instead of 7 when they get into the redzone—which is what they did last year.

The offense has to get back to starting games fast again. Play with a lead. It's time for Caleb Williams to show why he was the #1 pick. It's time to make a statement. I truly hope he's up for the task and we don't have to sit through another blowout with his accuracy continuing to look erratic.
 

They will need to limit the penalties and the drops. If they can do that, they can hang with most teams. The refs also get a say, unfortunately. If they call a fair game, the Bears have a shot.

[BearFan PHX]

I feel like with all but the top 5 teams in the league, the Bears could beat or lose to anyone. This is a matter of learning consistency - adam you're 100% right, it's drops, metal errors etc.

This team is already showing flashes of what it CAN do, now we have to get to where we are doing it consistently.

We win or lose on our own at this point, no matter who the opponent is (with the exception of the top 5 teams, who are beatable, but better than us.

Next year, with some pass pressure, we should be pretty good.

[adam]

54 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

I feel like with all but the top 5 teams in the league, the Bears could beat or lose to anyone. This is a matter of learning consistency - adam you're 100% right, it's drops, metal errors etc.

This team is already showing flashes of what it CAN do, now we have to get to where we are doing it consistently.

We win or lose on our own at this point, no matter who the opponent is (with the exception of the top 5 teams, who are beatable, but better than us.

Next year, with some pass pressure, we should be pretty good.

I would say I would've included BUF, BAL, LAC, and PHI to go along with DET as the 5 teams before this week, but BAL w/o Lamar is a completely different team, and their defense has never looked worse.

LAC w/o Alt scored 10 pts, and have lost their last 2 to NYG and WAS.

It still feels like BUF always comes up short in big games. Looking back at their schedule, they may be a little overrated. They beat the bad BAL defense in Week 1, a winless NYJ team in Week 2, a bad MIA team in Week 3, a terrible NO team in Week 4, and lost to their first real competition in a month.

So I would still keep PHI and DET in that category. SF and TB are close.
 

[BearFan PHX]

29 minutes ago, adam said:

I would say I would've included BUF, BAL, LAC, and PHI to go along with DET as the 5 teams before this week, but BAL w/o Lamar is a completely different team, and their defense has never looked worse.

LAC w/o Alt scored 10 pts, and have lost their last 2 to NYG and WAS.

It still feels like BUF always comes up short in big games. Looking back at their schedule, they may be a little overrated. They beat the bad BAL defense in Week 1, a winless NYJ team in Week 2, a bad MIA team in Week 3, a terrible NO team in Week 4, and lost to their first real competition in a month.

So I would still keep PHI and DET in that category. SF and TB are close.
 

yeah and Im npot even saying that we cant beat a top 5 team, but it would require some luck or for them to have a bad game. But we have enough talent now to beat most teams IF we play our best ball.

I think this is what this season is for - learning to be consistent.

And next year hopefully we will have a pass rush!