Take the North and Never Give It Back!

[adam]

That is still funny to me, but there is a path in the next two weeks.

This week, assuming DET beats WSH, CHI beats NYG and GB loses to PHI.

That would slide DET into 1st in the DIV, tied with the Bears but holding the H2H tiebreaker.

Regardless of the outcome of any other games, the Bears would also be locked into the 6th Seed either between SF and LAR or LAR and GB, depending on the winner of the LAR @ SF game.

Now here is where it gets spicy. Week 11, if the Bears can beat the Vikings and go to 7-3, DET is playing in PHI, which PHI should be favored. Just say DET loses, they fall to 6-4, GB should beat NYG and move to 6-3-1. That would put the Bears in 1st at 7-3, GB in 2nd, and DET in 3rd. The odds of this happening are actually quite high, considering all outcomes.

[BearFan PHX]

We are currently sniffing the playoffs - that puts everything in our own hands.

I don't think this team is ready for any kind of run, mostly because of the lack of pass pressure. And i think that will become more evident when we play some of the better teams coming up on the schedule.

But if this season was for Caleb and Johnson, then I think next season playoff expectations are fair. We have to get the defense right this coming offseason.

I'm enjoying this developmental year, and Im seeing the markers i felt I needed to see for this year to be a success. I want to see us upset one of those good teams too, if possible. I expect Caleb to keep growing and be a better QB in week 17 than he is now, which is miles better than week 1 was.

But next year - it's go time, and I expect us to start winning a bunch of games. I will be less patient with Caleb and everyone, and start to expect results. That's gonna be fun.

[Pixote]

3 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

But next year - it's go time, and I expect us to start winning a bunch of games. I will be less patient with Caleb and everyone, and start to expect results. That's gonna be fun.

It would be great if we could reach a point where posts on this forum celebrating accomplishments far outnumber those pointing out failures or offering excuses for poor performance. If BJ can do that in his first year as Bears' HC, it would be amazing.

[BearFan PHX]

3 hours ago, Pixote said:

It would be great if we could reach a point where posts on this forum celebrating accomplishments far outnumber those pointing out failures or offering excuses for poor performance. If BJ can do that in his first year as Bears' HC, it would be amazing.

of course we all want a dominant team, a top 3 QB. I dont think that putting Caleb's growth into context is excuse making exactly. It is what it is - it takes time, and we are progressing every week? That's just reasonable and the way it happens in the NFL. No one hits the ground running that isnt later exposed to have been incomplete as a player. It youre building a complete veteran top QB, there is a process, and you gotta go through it. Good news is that he seems to be making his way through the steps.

But yes, next year it is what it is, and patience will be much shorter. I cant wait for that either.

[adam]

12 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

We are currently sniffing the playoffs - that puts everything in our own hands.

I don't think this team is ready for any kind of run, mostly because of the lack of pass pressure. And i think that will become more evident when we play some of the better teams coming up on the schedule.

But if this season was for Caleb and Johnson, then I think next season playoff expectations are fair. We have to get the defense right this coming offseason.

I'm enjoying this developmental year, and Im seeing the markers i felt I needed to see for this year to be a success. I want to see us upset one of those good teams too, if possible. I expect Caleb to keep growing and be a better QB in week 17 than he is now, which is miles better than week 1 was.

But next year - it's go time, and I expect us to start winning a bunch of games. I will be less patient with Caleb and everyone, and start to expect results. That's gonna be fun.

Another way to look at it though, both Johnson and Allen have done this before as coordinators, so most of the in-game stuff is the same. Johnson has a few more responsibilities as a HC, but those are only related to challenges and timeouts, which he can get assistance from the booth on.

As for players, most of the vets have playoff experience. For key contributors, most do like Swift, Thuney, Dalman, Jackson, Smythe, Jarrett, Sweat, Billings, Edmunds, CJGJ, Wright and Byard. 

We are now at the halfway point of the season. From most new offenses, this is when they start to become more consistent. So I think we should expect more efficient and consistent offensive output for the rest of the season. 

 

Ultimately, if the Bears can go 2-0 in the next two weeks, and both DET and GB go 1-1, the Bears control their own destiny, which is not something I expected.  That would put them at 7-3 heading into the game against PIT, which is very winnable at home. Also, based on odds, that is the most likely outcome over the next two weeks. So it is not like we are reaching. 

 

[BearFan PHX]

5 hours ago, adam said:

Another way to look at it though, both Johnson and Allen have done this before as coordinators, so most of the in-game stuff is the same. Johnson has a few more responsibilities as a HC, but those are only related to challenges and timeouts, which he can get assistance from the booth on.

As for players, most of the vets have playoff experience. For key contributors, most do like Swift, Thuney, Dalman, Jackson, Smythe, Jarrett, Sweat, Billings, Edmunds, CJGJ, Wright and Byard. 

We are now at the halfway point of the season. From most new offenses, this is when they start to become more consistent. So I think we should expect more efficient and consistent offensive output for the rest of the season. 

 

Ultimately, if the Bears can go 2-0 in the next two weeks, and both DET and GB go 1-1, the Bears control their own destiny, which is not something I expected.  That would put them at 7-3 heading into the game against PIT, which is very winnable at home. Also, based on odds, that is the most likely outcome over the next two weeks. So it is not like we are reaching. 

 

I agree. We are right there sniffing the playoffs, but at the same time, we dont have the pass rush to really match up to playoff teams. I expect that to be addressed this offseason, and then the window really opens next year.

So yeah if we are expecting to be a contender next year, we ought to be at least sniffing the playoffs. 

In my opinion its going to be close.

[Bears4Ever_34]

It could be short lived, but I believe this is the first time the Bears would be in the playoffs if the season ended today. They're the 7th seed currently. If the Packers lose tomorrow, I think they fall to the 7th spot and the Bears move up to 6h. Big losses for the 49'ers, Vikings, and Panthers today gives the Bears a slight cushion.

The next two weeks become another inflection point for this team. Win both and your chances of making the playoffs grow considerably. Lose both and your season is probably over. Split, and you're still alive, but the road gets infinitely more daunting with PHI and GB coming up right after.

[BearFan PHX]

For all of us:

We are gonna play some tough teams, and we are going to have some losses. Get ready for it. It doesn't mean the sky is falling, we will either show that we are a lot better than we've been, or we will get our asses kicked a few times, and grow from the experience.

I think we are about 50/50 to make the playoffs, but if we dont, it doesnt mean everything needs to be scrapped and start over. I still think we are on pace to where we are going. Hopefully, we beat some good teams, but if we don't we will learn what the level of effort really is thats needed to beat good teams. And thats a lesson we need right now. We arent giving enough in all phases.

[Stinger226]

Every game matters and playing on the road isnt the best for this team but that is where we will see our growth. Minny game is winnable and that game will determine if we have a shot at the playoffs. Philly and Lions are probably the two losses for sure on our schedule but the rest are winnable games. We won 5 last year and now have 6 wins. Does anyone think we cant go 3-5 in our last 8 games? Our floor will be a winning season, and that is achievable. We have 4 home games left.

[adam]

6-3, going 4-4 the rest of the way is 10-7. Assuming they can beat CLE due to how bad CLE's offense is, they have to go 3-4 against MIN, GB, GB, DET, PIT, SF, and PHI. Just say they split with GB and beat MIN, then they need to go 1-3 against DET, PIT, SF, and PHI. I could see them beating PIT and SF and losing to DET and PHI.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Curious, and want to ask this before we head into the tougher part of this year’s schedule.  Whats the consensus on how Poles is doing right now?   The team is tied for the lead in the NFC north for the first time since 2022.  Poles more or less built the team we see before us.  They signed CJ who has contributed significantly while the defense as a whole has struggled.  And many claim Williams is coming into his own as was predicted would happen when he was drafted.  Before you say ‘but this all Johnson’, remember Poles was the one that hired him.    

 

[BearFan PHX]

Its a mixed bag with Poles, and while he did draft Caleb, anyone would have done that with the first pick.

And anyone would have signed Johnson too - he was the belle of the ball last year. (yes i know at the time i thought Vrabel was the guy, but I also didnt really know anything about Johnson's demeanor, but you can assume every GM did know those things)

I also think that starting with last year's draft, Ben Johnson is really the guy calling the shots on personnel. Now that might be a reason to keep Poles, because he is letting Johnson make the decisions, but it's not necessarily a reason to praise him?

 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

7 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Its a mixed bag with Poles, and while he did draft Caleb, anyone would have done that with the first pick.

And anyone would have signed Johnson too - he was the belle of the ball last year. (yes i know at the time i thought Vrabel was the guy, but I also didnt really know anything about Johnson's demeanor, but you can assume every GM did know those things)

I also think that starting with last year's draft, Ben Johnson is really the guy calling the shots on personnel. Now that might be a reason to keep Poles, because he is letting Johnson make the decisions, but it's not necessarily a reason to praise him?

 

When the Bears were losing, Poles was taking heat for drafting a TE, WR, RT, and DT.  Now that they are winning, it is slowly going to BJ made the picks.  Im not calling you or anyone out, just things you read anywhere.  I do believe Poles relies on Warren, Cunningham and Johnson equally and he wants all 4 of them on board for any big decisions. They also want Johnson to get the players he needs to fit his style or D Allen's (a multi position DL, tall physical CB, and fast LB). 

As for Alaska?, I think Poles has done above average, C+.  If Kiran or Trapilo turn into staples on the oline, he can get to a B+ very fast.

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

When the Bears were losing, Poles was taking heat for drafting a TE, WR, RT, and DT.  Now that they are winning, it is slowly going to BJ made the picks.  Im not calling you or anyone out, just things you read anywhere.  I do believe Poles relies on Warren, Cunningham and Johnson equally and he wants all 4 of them on board for any big decisions. They also want Johnson to get the players he needs to fit his style or D Allen's (a multi position DL, tall physical CB, and fast LB). 

As for Alaska?, I think Poles has done above average, C+.  If Kiran or Trapilo turn into staples on the oline, he can get to a B+ very fast.

I understand the point you're making. I'm saying as we go forward, I think Johnson will make the good decisions and Poles will follow. We are already hearing that Poles wanted to trade picks away for players at the trade deadline and Johnson told him not to. So I think there's good evidence that Johnson is running the show.

Of course Poles and his scouts provide all the detailed info, film and investigations that Poles and Johnson will rely on to make those decisions, so it's not like Poles will be twiddling his thumbs. But when it comes to talent evaluation, I think Johnson will have the last word, and right now at least I am more comfortable with that than letting Poles have it.

And yes, that includes the picks we made this year, to at least some extent.

I really like Loveland as a player, but i still think taking a TE with the #10 pick overall is a strange choice. We still have no pass rush. I also understand taking Burden at #39, but we should have taken Aireontae Ersery at #41, instead of trading down for Trapilo and Turner in my view too. Is Turner going to be worth the trade down from Ersery to Trapilo?

But i think Johnson will be much better going forward now that he understands the roster better, having coached all these players this year. And maybe Johnson didnt mind taking Loveland high because he felt he needed to get Caleb going into the system. If they are aggressive about stocking the defense this offseason, then that's all gonna work out.

So hopefully that clears up some of what might have looked like having it both ways, with a little more detail?

I think Poles is a good team player, not much of a leader type, and is a hard worker who will do a good job setting the table, but Johnson will make the right strategic decisions after that.

I mean, Poles has been here a while, and pass rush has been a consistent problem, who has he drafted on the pass rushing edge?

[Stinger226]

I agree with the C+ grade on Poles. All GMs have hits and misses but the key to any organization, are they winning ? Poles said he needed 5 yrs to rebuild this into a consistent winner, we are in year 4. He will be remembered for drafting Caleb and hiring BJ, not all the third round misses. 

Shanahan traded a bunch of picks to draft Trey Lance in 2021 which would have got a lot of people fired. He didnt get fired because he is a consistent winner. Belechek is known for being the best coach ever and his history is littered with mistakes but always won. BJ has influenced Poles picks , just look at  the Loveland and Burden picks but it still falls on Poles shoulders. 

You build a team successfully thru the draft, free agency, and  C G-Johnson type pickups. The only important question , are we winning? It appears to be right on Poles schedule in a 5 yr rebuilding plan. He came in here with a terrible Cap situation, and a bunch of expensive older players without many good ones. Condemn Poles all you want on his mistakes but do we have a team now that can win the North (tied for first place) and become a playoff contender? So far so good.

[Stinger226]

11 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

When the Bears were losing, Poles was taking heat for drafting a TE, WR, RT, and DT.  Now that they are winning, it is slowly going to BJ made the picks.  Im not calling you or anyone out, just things you read anywhere.  I do believe Poles relies on Warren, Cunningham and Johnson equally and he wants all 4 of them on board for any big decisions. They also want Johnson to get the players he needs to fit his style or D Allen's (a multi position DL, tall physical CB, and fast LB). 

As for Alaska?, I think Poles has done above average, C+.  If Kiran or Trapilo turn into staples on the oline, he can get to a B+ very fast.

Another thing I forgot to mention. Our LT (Theo) is now third in the league (all Ts) at win rate at run blocking. We are now the 7th ranked OL in the league, third in pass blocking efficiency.  As much as there are legitimate  arguments that we should have drafted a first round LT but a UDFA may be our LT of the future. We have given up 14 sacks this year compared to leading the league in sacks last year 68. As much as 1/3 of the sacks were because Caleb was holding the ball to long last year, his pocket awareness has helped him avoid sacks this year. Everything appears to working.

[BearFan PHX]

4 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Another thing I forgot to mention. Our LT (Theo) is now third in the league (all Ts) at win rate at run blocking. We are now the 7th ranked OL in the league, third in pass blocking efficiency.  As much as there are legitimate  arguments that we should have drafted a first round LT but a UDFA may be our LT of the future.

I dont see our OL as being 3rd in pass blocking. That's a PFF number isnt it?

If Benedet grows and can handle the pass blocking, then great - he has been really good in the run game - but right now he is a liability in pass blocking. If people want to complain about Caleb holding the ball and running around, a lot of it starts with Benedet allowing pressure.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

If people want to complain about Caleb holding the ball and running around, a lot of it starts with Benedet allowing pressure

At the risk of being ‘nit picky’, holding the ball and running around aren’t necessarily symptoms of bad pass pro.  Not being able to process progressions timely could also contribute, especially with the ‘holding the ball’ part . 

[BearFan PHX]

9 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

At the risk of being ‘nit picky’, holding the ball and running around aren’t necessarily symptoms of bad pass pro.  Not being able to process progressions timely could also contribute, especially with the ‘holding the ball’ part . 

sure in the abstract, in general, yes, but thats not whats going on with Caleb. He is often getting the ball out on time. Its when the protection breaks down that he has to start scrambling.

Benedet is young, and he has the rest of the year to keep improving before any decisions need to be made, but right now if Benedet doesnt get any better, we have to think about replacing him. To be fair, you can say the same about Caleb too. And Odunze. All young players need time to grow.

But right now, Benedet is a consistent problem in pass pro. Not saying he sucks - just that he needs to get better.