adam Posted 12 hours ago Report Share Posted 12 hours ago The 11-4 Bears travel to SF to take on the current 10-4 49ers. A primetime matchup of two teams that earned a playoff berth with Detroit crapping their pants. McCaffrey accounts for 23.6% of the targets, and has 10 games with over 105 scrimmage yards. He accounts for 34.8% of the 49ers yards from scrimmage. The Bears have to figure out a way to contain him, especially in the passing game. Surprisingly, he has been mediocre running the ball this year with his lowest career YPC at 3.6. He has a -31.0 Rush EPA, which puts him in the bottom 10 of the league in that category. SF will be coming off playing in Indy on MNF. 2 fewer days rest than the Bears with the Bears travel being cancelled by the 49ers travel back home from Indy. Advantage Bears. Warner and Bosa have been out, and that is not the same 49ers defense. They have played better of late, but EPA/Play-wise, their defense is 23rd, but 9th in scoring, 16th in Yards (10th against the Rush, 20th against the Pass), T-21st in Takeaways. So at best this is about a top 15 defense. Compared to GB, CLE, PHI, and PIT, this will be the easiest defense the Bears have faced in quite some time. Their offense is 12th in scoring and 11th in yards, and McCaffrey makes up over a 1/3 of that. It is wild to me that an RB leads the team in targets with 108, followed by Jennings at 74, and Kittle at 54. However, it seems like slowing McCaffrey down running the ball is the key. They are 8-0 when he rushes for at least 55 yards, and 2-4 when he doesn't. They are 0-3 when he rushes for under 50. I am picking the Bears, but I think the score will be dictated by the IND game somewhat. If it is high scoring, I think the Bears win 33-24 or something along those lines, a 2-score win while scoring 30+. If the IND game is low scoring, then I see it more like 24-17 Bears, more like a 6-8 point win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted 1 hour ago Author Report Share Posted 1 hour ago EPA/Play: CHI OFF: T-9th CHI DEF: T-11th SF OFF: T-9th SF DEF: T-23rd Offenses are identical in efficiency, but the 49ers defense is one of the worst on a play-by-play basis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.