Cap Moves

[adam]

The Bears are about $4M over the cap, need $5M for operating space and $8-10M for draft picks. Let's just say that is $20M. 

The Bears can gain over $35M in cap space with these 3 transactions:

1. Cut Edmunds - pre-June 1st, save $15M (only $2.4M Dead cap)

2. Trade Moore - pre-June 1st, save $16.5M ($12M in Dead cap) or restructure that can save approximately $15M.

3. Restructure Thuney - convert $12M of his $16M to bonus, saves $6M
 

Other potential moves

1. Cut/Trade/Restructure/Extend Kmet - I think they will do something with him. He is tied for the 7th-highest AAV amongst TEs for backup TE production. With the emergence of Loveland, you just can't have Kmet on the roster with an $11.6M cap hit. Options:

A. Cut/Trade - save $8.4M, only $3.2M in dead money
B. Restructure - With 2 years left, you can convert some of his $8.9M into a bonus to free up some cash this year
C. Extend - Only if he takes less AAV, which may be unlikely, but if he did, you could cost-average his annual cap hit down to a more workable level.

2. Restructure Jarrett - similar to Thuney, can convert guaranteed to bonus to free up about another $5M

 

If you add transactions for Kmet and Jarrett, the Bears could have close to $50M to work with. If Byard is your only named resigning, after subtracting operating space and the draft pool, the Bears should have $25-30M for free agency.

 

Rest of the NFL

To put this into perspective, the Chiefs are $62M over the cap, Vikings $49M, and Cowboys $39M. Mahomes has a $78M cap hit in 2026. They will probably restructure Mahomes and Jones to free up about $50M, mortgaging the future, and will probably have to cut or trade a guy like Jawaan Taylor to get under the cap.

The Vikings will restructure Jefferson's contract, but they will have to make some cuts to just get under the cap. They won't be able to sign any major FAs. This roster looks to take a step back from 2025 unless all their draft picks hit and contribute on Day 1, unlikely.

GB interestingly enough is $24M over the cap, they can get under with restructures for Love and Parsons, but man are those contracts gonna hit hard in a few years, Love's already hits $75M in 2028 and Parsons hits $72M in 2029. So if they restructure either of theirs this offseason, those numbers will go up even further. GB was clearly going all in and it looks like 2026 will be their last year with a roster that resembles 2025. 2027 and beyond will have to be stripped down.  Quay Walker, Doubs, and their LT Walker are all UFAs this offseason, and they don't have a first-round pick. With limited cap and draft capital, this team is solely relying on Parsons in 2026.

The Lions are $16M over, Goff has a $69M cap hit and St. Brown is $33M, they restructure both of those to get under. They can do the same with Hutchinson, to free up some operating space, but they won't be signing any major FAs. This team will go into 2026 relying on the 4th place schedule. 

The Bears are in the best shape cap-wise of all the teams in the Division, MIN has the most draft capital with an extra 3rd, GB has the least without a 1st round pick. The CHI, GB, and DET QB situation is stable, so the Bears are the healthiest of the teams within the division.

CAP: CHI, ........DET, GB, .................MIN
Draft: MIN, DET, CHI, ......................GB
QB: CHI,.....DET, GB.........................MIN

Overall Organizational Health: CHI, DET...........MIN, GB

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Nice breakdown Adam.  The Bears have some difficult decisions to make. The easiest is DJ to me.  His is clutch when he wants, but moving his cap to a DE/DT that can make a difference will help balance the team. Kmet might get the home town hardball thrown at him bc i believe he will do what he can to stay and the Bears know it. 

I am excited to see this offseason. If the Caleb and the WRs both take another step at their deficiencies, we could be holding off these talks.