Cap Moves

[adam]

The Bears are about $4M over the cap, need $5M for operating space and $8-10M for draft picks. Let's just say that is $20M. 

The Bears can gain over $35M in cap space with these 3 transactions:

1. Cut Edmunds - pre-June 1st, save $15M (only $2.4M Dead cap)

2. Trade Moore - pre-June 1st, save $16.5M ($12M in Dead cap) or restructure that can save approximately $15M.

3. Restructure Thuney - convert $12M of his $16M to bonus, saves $6M
 

Other potential moves

1. Cut/Trade/Restructure/Extend Kmet - I think they will do something with him. He is tied for the 7th-highest AAV amongst TEs for backup TE production. With the emergence of Loveland, you just can't have Kmet on the roster with an $11.6M cap hit. Options:

A. Cut/Trade - save $8.4M, only $3.2M in dead money
B. Restructure - With 2 years left, you can convert some of his $8.9M into a bonus to free up some cash this year
C. Extend - Only if he takes less AAV, which may be unlikely, but if he did, you could cost-average his annual cap hit down to a more workable level.

2. Restructure Jarrett - similar to Thuney, can convert guaranteed to bonus to free up about another $5M

 

If you add transactions for Kmet and Jarrett, the Bears could have close to $50M to work with. If Byard is your only named resigning, after subtracting operating space and the draft pool, the Bears should have $25-30M for free agency.

 

Rest of the NFL

To put this into perspective, the Chiefs are $62M over the cap, Vikings $49M, and Cowboys $39M. Mahomes has a $78M cap hit in 2026. They will probably restructure Mahomes and Jones to free up about $50M, mortgaging the future, and will probably have to cut or trade a guy like Jawaan Taylor to get under the cap.

The Vikings will restructure Jefferson's contract, but they will have to make some cuts to just get under the cap. They won't be able to sign any major FAs. This roster looks to take a step back from 2025 unless all their draft picks hit and contribute on Day 1, unlikely.

GB interestingly enough is $24M over the cap, they can get under with restructures for Love and Parsons, but man are those contracts gonna hit hard in a few years, Love's already hits $75M in 2028 and Parsons hits $72M in 2029. So if they restructure either of theirs this offseason, those numbers will go up even further. GB was clearly going all in and it looks like 2026 will be their last year with a roster that resembles 2025. 2027 and beyond will have to be stripped down.  Quay Walker, Doubs, and their LT Walker are all UFAs this offseason, and they don't have a first-round pick. With limited cap and draft capital, this team is solely relying on Parsons in 2026.

The Lions are $16M over, Goff has a $69M cap hit and St. Brown is $33M, they restructure both of those to get under. They can do the same with Hutchinson, to free up some operating space, but they won't be signing any major FAs. This team will go into 2026 relying on the 4th place schedule. 

The Bears are in the best shape cap-wise of all the teams in the Division, MIN has the most draft capital with an extra 3rd, GB has the least without a 1st round pick. The CHI, GB, and DET QB situation is stable, so the Bears are the healthiest of the teams within the division.

CAP: CHI, ........DET, GB, .................MIN
Draft: MIN, DET, CHI, ......................GB
QB: CHI,.....DET, GB.........................MIN

Overall Organizational Health: CHI, DET...........MIN, GB

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Nice breakdown Adam.  The Bears have some difficult decisions to make. The easiest is DJ to me.  His is clutch when he wants, but moving his cap to a DE/DT that can make a difference will help balance the team. Kmet might get the home town hardball thrown at him bc i believe he will do what he can to stay and the Bears know it. 

I am excited to see this offseason. If the Caleb and the WRs both take another step at their deficiencies, we could be holding off these talks. 

[adam]

1 hour ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Nice breakdown Adam.  The Bears have some difficult decisions to make. The easiest is DJ to me.  His is clutch when he wants, but moving his cap to a DE/DT that can make a difference will help balance the team. Kmet might get the home town hardball thrown at him bc i believe he will do what he can to stay and the Bears know it. 

I am excited to see this offseason. If the Caleb and the WRs both take another step at their deficiencies, we could be holding off these talks. 

Ultimately if they can bring back Byard, the only starting positions they would have to fill besides SS would be any holes they make, like cutting Edmunds. That is a pretty good spot because you are looking to just upgrade at that point. A lot of teams are losing as much as they are gaining.

10 teams will have new coaches, 10 teams had 6 wins or less. Thats a 1/3 of the league, another 1/3 is trapped in the middle between 7-9 wins, then you have the 1/3. The Bears are primed for a top 1/3 run for the next decade.

SEA, NE, CHI, JAX, DEN, and LAC seem to be that group. They all have QBs under 30, all made the playoffs, all will have relatively the same coaching staff in 2026, with no major cap issues. 

 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

3 minutes ago, adam said:

Ultimately if they can bring back Byard, the only starting positions they would have to fill besides SS would be any holes they make, like cutting Edmunds. That is a pretty good spot because you are looking to just upgrade at that point. A lot of teams are losing as much as they are gaining.

10 teams will have new coaches, 10 teams had 6 wins or less. Thats a 1/3 of the league, another 1/3 is trapped in the middle between 7-9 wins, then you have the 1/3. The Bears are primed for a top 1/3 run for the next decade.

SEA, NE, CHI, JAX, DEN, and LAC seem to be that group. They all have QBs under 30, all made the playoffs, all will have relatively the same coaching staff in 2026, with no major cap issues. 

 

I feel like a good DT, safety and LB should all be in range of picks they are making in first 2 rounds. Maybe move down to get 3 in first 2 rounds. 

[Stinger226]

3 hours ago, adam said:

The Bears are about $4M over the cap, need $5M for operating space and $8-10M for draft picks. Let's just say that is $20M. 

The Bears can gain over $35M in cap space with these 3 transactions:

1. Cut Edmunds - pre-June 1st, save $15M (only $2.4M Dead cap)

2. Trade Moore - pre-June 1st, save $16.5M ($12M in Dead cap) or restructure that can save approximately $15M.

3. Restructure Thuney - convert $12M of his $16M to bonus, saves $6M
 

Other potential moves

1. Cut/Trade/Restructure/Extend Kmet - I think they will do something with him. He is tied for the 7th-highest AAV amongst TEs for backup TE production. With the emergence of Loveland, you just can't have Kmet on the roster with an $11.6M cap hit. Options:

A. Cut/Trade - save $8.4M, only $3.2M in dead money
B. Restructure - With 2 years left, you can convert some of his $8.9M into a bonus to free up some cash this year
C. Extend - Only if he takes less AAV, which may be unlikely, but if he did, you could cost-average his annual cap hit down to a more workable level.

2. Restructure Jarrett - similar to Thuney, can convert guaranteed to bonus to free up about another $5M

 

If you add transactions for Kmet and Jarrett, the Bears could have close to $50M to work with. If Byard is your only named resigning, after subtracting operating space and the draft pool, the Bears should have $25-30M for free agency.

 

Rest of the NFL

To put this into perspective, the Chiefs are $62M over the cap, Vikings $49M, and Cowboys $39M. Mahomes has a $78M cap hit in 2026. They will probably restructure Mahomes and Jones to free up about $50M, mortgaging the future, and will probably have to cut or trade a guy like Jawaan Taylor to get under the cap.

The Vikings will restructure Jefferson's contract, but they will have to make some cuts to just get under the cap. They won't be able to sign any major FAs. This roster looks to take a step back from 2025 unless all their draft picks hit and contribute on Day 1, unlikely.

GB interestingly enough is $24M over the cap, they can get under with restructures for Love and Parsons, but man are those contracts gonna hit hard in a few years, Love's already hits $75M in 2028 and Parsons hits $72M in 2029. So if they restructure either of theirs this offseason, those numbers will go up even further. GB was clearly going all in and it looks like 2026 will be their last year with a roster that resembles 2025. 2027 and beyond will have to be stripped down.  Quay Walker, Doubs, and their LT Walker are all UFAs this offseason, and they don't have a first-round pick. With limited cap and draft capital, this team is solely relying on Parsons in 2026.

The Lions are $16M over, Goff has a $69M cap hit and St. Brown is $33M, they restructure both of those to get under. They can do the same with Hutchinson, to free up some operating space, but they won't be signing any major FAs. This team will go into 2026 relying on the 4th place schedule. 

The Bears are in the best shape cap-wise of all the teams in the Division, MIN has the most draft capital with an extra 3rd, GB has the least without a 1st round pick. The CHI, GB, and DET QB situation is stable, so the Bears are the healthiest of the teams within the division.

CAP: CHI, ........DET, GB, .................MIN
Draft: MIN, DET, CHI, ......................GB
QB: CHI,.....DET, GB.........................MIN

Overall Organizational Health: CHI, DET...........MIN, GB

Lots of great information here Adam. 

First I think they restructure all the contracts they can to get Cap space.

Cut players with little dead money.

Edmunds is a no brainer.

Swift is another possibility but at 26 with little mileage,  I think they extend him and redo for friendly cap money for next year.

I also think they redo Kmets  contract for a friendly cap hit for 26. He is one of the team leaders.

Most contracts are set up for 2027 cuts with little dead money. 

Trades, as much as I don't think they will, Kmet and DJ are likely trade candidates. Easy to say trade them but you have to find someone willing to take a big salary and usually that's not rebuilding teams. To me more likely to restructure their contracts unless you can get good value in a player or higher draft picks. 

They will first resign their own free agents. Olin kruetz was saying that a lot of free agents will want to come here because we are poised to do a SB run the next two years. I think applies to our own free agents. 

Byard is a team leader, a no brainer to me. 

D Jackson to replace Edmunds and will be back on a team friendly deal.

Could be back, Duhshon Wright, Gardener-Johnson and Brisker if they take team friendly deals.

As much as the defense has sucked this year, injuries had a lot to do with it. I think a healthy Gordon, JJ, Dayo, Shemar Turner will all make the defense better. The Rams game proved to me how good DA is , they held Pucau and Adams to 7 catches and under 100 yards for the game. 20 points to the best offense in the league. 

Have to keep in mind Terrell Smith will be back and he has played well when healthy. 

As much as DE is a need, I think a top DT will help more from trade or draft pick. If they resign the safeties, DT, DE will be our top draft needs then S. Also depending on the news with Ozzy, LT may be picked in the top 3 picks.

If Poles and BJ think we need a Crosby, they will find a way to get him. I think Simmons from Tennessee would be a more valuable get.

 

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I feel like a good DT, safety and LB should all be in range of picks they are making in first 2 rounds. Maybe move down to get 3 in first 2 rounds. 

I think Poles does similar moves like he did last year to get extra picks in the top 100. Edwards, Amen, Sewell, resign D Jackson and Hyppolite so LB won't be a top priority. DT to me is the biggest need. 

[AZ54]

16 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I think Poles does similar moves like he did last year to get extra picks in the top 100. Edwards, Amen, Sewell, resign D Jackson and Hyppolite so LB won't be a top priority. DT to me is the biggest need. 

Maybe but there is not as much room to trade back and still get similar value when you start at 25.   

[DABEARSDABOMB]

18 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I think Poles does similar moves like he did last year to get extra picks in the top 100. Edwards, Amen, Sewell, resign D Jackson and Hyppolite so LB won't be a top priority. DT to me is the biggest need. 

Our LB play was pretty bad. Sewell stinks, hyppolite couldn’t even get special teams snap and Jackson is a good special team / depth player. Edward’s might be cooked - he is already getting older and that injury probably costs him half a step. 
 

I think DT and De are huge needs