adam Posted 2 hours ago Report Share Posted 2 hours ago So I took my first deeper dive into Williams' comp% with some other advanced metrics. One I found interesting was xComp from NFL NextGenStats. It simply computes the expected completion percentage for a QB, and then the difference between the actual Comp% and the xComp to come up with a difference value. The normal is +/- 5. Anything over +5 is " extremely lucky" and anything under -5 is terrible luck. Basically those are the non-sustainable ranges. Looking back, it was hard for me to even find a Caleb Williams comp, a QB with over 500 attempts and Comp Diff of -5 or more. There was only one, Trevor Lawrence in 2021. He had a -5 Diff that year, and the following year, his Comp% went up 6.7% from the previous year. There were 2 other QBs with over 500 attempts, Murray in 2019 and Rodgers in 2024, but their Comp Diff were under 5. Williams is still in his own stratosphere at -6.9. There is a very high probability that his Comp% jumps 7% next year to around 65% without any actual changes, just regression to the norm. If he actually improves his own accuracy, then that could even go higher, but we will stick with the norm. 2019 Murray - 542, -3 (64.4 > 67.2) +2.8% 2021 Lawrence - 602, -5 (59.6 > 66.3) +6.7% 2024 Rodgers - 584, -4.7 (63 > 65.7) +2.7% 2025 Williams - 568, -6.9 (58.1 > ?) On the flip side, there was one QB with a +9.1 this year, that is the highest Comp Diff since the stat was tracked. Drake Maye. Tannehill 8.7 in 2019 on 286 attempts, dropped 4.8% the following year Fitzpatrick 7.2 in 2020 on 267 attempts, DNP in 2021 The only other recent comparison is Burrow in 2021 had a +5.9 and his Comp% dropped 2.1% the following year. Maye ended the season with a 72% Comp% and both him and Williams may end up next season with a comp% within 1-2% of each other. Considering they are basically 14% apart right now, that would almost seem unachievable, but the funny part is just comparing their xComps, Williams comes out on top. That is just how unlucky Williams has been (drops, etc) and how lucky Maye has been. Williams xComp 65% Maye xComp 62.8% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted 2 hours ago Report Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 minutes ago, adam said: So I took my first deeper dive into Williams' comp% with some other advanced metrics. One I found interesting was xComp from NFL NextGenStats. It simply computes the expected completion percentage for a QB, and then the difference between the actual Comp% and the xComp to come up with a difference value. The normal is +/- 5. Anything over +5 is " extremely lucky" and anything under -5 is terrible luck. Basically those are the non-sustainable ranges. Looking back, it was hard for me to even find a Caleb Williams comp, a QB with over 500 attempts and Comp Diff of -5 or more. There was only one, Trevor Lawrence in 2021. He had a -5 Diff that year, and the following year, his Comp% went up 6.7% from the previous year. There were 2 other QBs with over 500 attempts, Murray in 2019 and Rodgers in 2024, but their Comp Diff were under 5. Williams is still in his own stratosphere at -6.9. There is a very high probability that his Comp% jumps 7% next year to around 65% without any actual changes, just regression to the norm. If he actually improves his own accuracy, then that could even go higher, but we will stick with the norm. 2019 Murray - 542, -3 (64.4 > 67.2) +2.8% 2021 Lawrence - 602, -5 (59.6 > 66.3) +6.7% 2024 Rodgers - 584, -4.7 (63 > 65.7) +2.7% 2025 Williams - 568, -6.9 (58.1 > ?) On the flip side, there was one QB with a +9.1 this year, that is the highest Comp Diff since the stat was tracked. Drake Maye. Tannehill 8.7 in 2019 on 286 attempts, dropped 4.8% the following year Fitzpatrick 7.2 in 2020 on 267 attempts, DNP in 2021 The only other recent comparison is Burrow in 2021 had a +5.9 and his Comp% dropped 2.1% the following year. Maye ended the season with a 72% Comp% and both him and Williams may end up next season with a comp% within 1-2% of each other. Considering they are basically 14% apart right now, that would almost seem unachievable, but the funny part is just comparing their xComps, Williams comes out on top. That is just how unlucky Williams has been (drops, etc) and how lucky Maye has been. Williams xComp 65% Maye xComp 62.8% I read that too. Using his low comp rate doesn't tell the whole story, it's more complicated than that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted 2 hours ago Author Report Share Posted 2 hours ago 12 minutes ago, Stinger226 said: I read that too. Using his low comp rate doesn't tell the whole story, it's more complicated than that. He still has a lot to work to do on his own in terms of accuracy, touch, etc, but just looking at the totality of it, there has never been even a 11% gap between 2 QBs in the NFL, let alone a 16% gap for the Comp Diff (+9.1 and -6.9). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted 1 hour ago Report Share Posted 1 hour ago fascinating, and more indications that the Caleb Williams we are projecting isnt just hope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mongo3451 Posted 1 hour ago Report Share Posted 1 hour ago Caleb has a lot more to work on than completion percentage. That will naturally raise it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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