So I took my first deeper dive into Williams' comp% with some other advanced metrics. One I found interesting was xComp from NFL NextGenStats. It simply computes the expected completion percentage for a QB, and then the difference between the actual Comp% and the xComp to come up with a difference value. The normal is +/- 5. Anything over +5 is " extremely lucky" and anything under -5 is terrible luck. Basically those are the non-sustainable ranges.

Looking back, it was hard for me to even find a Caleb Williams comp, a QB with over 500 attempts and Comp Diff of -5 or more. There was only one, Trevor Lawrence in 2021. He had a -5 Diff that year, and the following year, his Comp% went up 6.7% from the previous year. There were 2 other QBs with over 500 attempts, Murray in 2019 and Rodgers in 2024, but their Comp Diff were under 5. Williams is still in his own stratosphere at -6.9. There is a very high probability that his Comp% jumps 7% next year to around 65% without any actual changes, just regression to the norm. If he actually improves his own accuracy, then that could even go higher, but we will stick with the norm.

2019
Murray - 542, -3 (64.4 > 67.2) +2.8%

2021
Lawrence - 602, -5 (59.6 > 66.3) +6.7%

2024 
Rodgers - 584, -4.7 (63 > 65.7) +2.7%

2025
Williams - 568, -6.9 (58.1 > ?)

 

On the flip side, there was one QB with a +9.1 this year, that is the highest Comp Diff since the stat was tracked. Drake Maye.

Tannehill 8.7 in 2019 on 286 attempts, dropped 4.8% the following year
Fitzpatrick 7.2 in 2020 on 267 attempts, DNP in 2021

The only other recent comparison is Burrow in 2021 had a +5.9 and his Comp% dropped 2.1% the following year.

Maye ended the season with a 72% Comp% and both him and Williams may end up next season with a comp% within 1-2% of each other. Considering they are basically 14% apart right now, that would almost seem unachievable, but the funny part is just comparing their xComps, Williams comes out on top. That is just how unlucky Williams has been (drops, etc) and how lucky Maye has been. 

Williams xComp 65%
Maye xComp 62.8%

3 minutes ago, adam said:

So I took my first deeper dive into Williams' comp% with some other advanced metrics. One I found interesting was xComp from NFL NextGenStats. It simply computes the expected completion percentage for a QB, and then the difference between the actual Comp% and the xComp to come up with a difference value. The normal is +/- 5. Anything over +5 is " extremely lucky" and anything under -5 is terrible luck. Basically those are the non-sustainable ranges.

Looking back, it was hard for me to even find a Caleb Williams comp, a QB with over 500 attempts and Comp Diff of -5 or more. There was only one, Trevor Lawrence in 2021. He had a -5 Diff that year, and the following year, his Comp% went up 6.7% from the previous year. There were 2 other QBs with over 500 attempts, Murray in 2019 and Rodgers in 2024, but their Comp Diff were under 5. Williams is still in his own stratosphere at -6.9. There is a very high probability that his Comp% jumps 7% next year to around 65% without any actual changes, just regression to the norm. If he actually improves his own accuracy, then that could even go higher, but we will stick with the norm.

2019
Murray - 542, -3 (64.4 > 67.2) +2.8%

2021
Lawrence - 602, -5 (59.6 > 66.3) +6.7%

2024 
Rodgers - 584, -4.7 (63 > 65.7) +2.7%

2025
Williams - 568, -6.9 (58.1 > ?)

 

On the flip side, there was one QB with a +9.1 this year, that is the highest Comp Diff since the stat was tracked. Drake Maye.

Tannehill 8.7 in 2019 on 286 attempts, dropped 4.8% the following year
Fitzpatrick 7.2 in 2020 on 267 attempts, DNP in 2021

The only other recent comparison is Burrow in 2021 had a +5.9 and his Comp% dropped 2.1% the following year.

Maye ended the season with a 72% Comp% and both him and Williams may end up next season with a comp% within 1-2% of each other. Considering they are basically 14% apart right now, that would almost seem unachievable, but the funny part is just comparing their xComps, Williams comes out on top. That is just how unlucky Williams has been (drops, etc) and how lucky Maye has been. 

Williams xComp 65%
Maye xComp 62.8%

I read that too. Using his low comp rate doesn't tell the whole story, it's more complicated than that.

12 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I read that too. Using his low comp rate doesn't tell the whole story, it's more complicated than that.

He still has a lot to work to do on his own in terms of accuracy, touch, etc, but just looking at the totality of it, there has never been even a 11% gap between 2 QBs in the NFL, let alone a 16% gap for the Comp Diff (+9.1 and -6.9). 

fascinating, and more indications that the Caleb Williams we are projecting isnt just hope.

Caleb has a lot more to work on than completion percentage.  That will naturally raise it.

I think year 3  is the sweet spot on progess in a new offensive scheme but next year should have big numbers.

4 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

Caleb has a lot more to work on than completion percentage.  That will naturally raise it.

Right. He needs to work on a bunch of things, and fixing those will naturally mean a higher completion percentage. He doens need to concentrate ont he percentage, just on everything hes doing already. I agree.

The most promising part is that there is room to grow because his comp% is so low. However, if in Maye's case, he is already at 72%, the only place to go is down from there as that is not a sustainable rate in the NFL. 

Ben Johnson,  I believe, was the one that set the bar for Caleb at 70% when he came to Chicago.  Having worked with Goff he saw how much that could overall improve the game.  Since Goff joined the Lions here's how he's trended:

 

Interestingly, Johnson didn't start as the OC with Detroit until 2022 when you notice a dip from 2021-22 then back up again gradually until Johnson left at the end of the 24 season.  Goff has always been a pretty decent passer.  What kills him is his lack of mobility.  He gets REALLY erratic after he's been hit a few times.

I thought it interesting to see Williams had a 62.5% passer completion rate his rookie year (this despite his insane number of sacks).  But then with his first year under Johnson dropped to 58%.  I suspect he's tracking similar to how Lawrence is and get back to mid, maybe high 60% next year.  And maybe in his third year of the system (like Stinger mentioned) we'll see him closer if not surpassing the 70% mark.  

NOTE:  Drew Brees currently holds the record percentage rate at 74.4 (2018) so its not totally out of reach.  A handful of guys have surpassed 70% in the 'modern era' in more than one season so again, nothing says Williams couldn't join them. 

If he just learns to take the rocket booster off the short passes, that's 5 points right there.