Rumors

[BearFan PHX]

36 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I think the problem is I can’t see someone offering a 2nd..if they did he is gone. A 3rd is probably what it would take but Bears may prefer to wait a year in that case. If it happens I think a 3rd with a conditional pick in the following year - if he hits it big maybe it escalates to a 2nd and if it doesn’t hit goes as low as an additional 5th or 6th. 

Right, getting him a year early should cost something like a 2nd. Maybe more. Starting QBs don't grow on trees, and if you're paying a 2nd, you think he's a starter.

If teams feel he isn't worth it, then they can wait until next year. If they believe in him, then they should pay.

[Stinger226]

Here is some stupid rumors I've seen and throw them into a scenario for our off season.

Bears trade DJ Moore for Devonte Sweat/ NT/ Tenn . Sweat is 25 , great against the run but not much of a pass rusher. 2.6 mil a year but we save 16.5 mil. Contract runs thru 27. 

We trade D Swift and Bagent for Josh Sweat at AZ. Sweat had 12 sacks last year and 49 hurries with 3 FFs. His Cap this year 16.5 mil and has 4 years left in his contract with the last one being a voided yr. Swift and Bagent move 13.3 mil in salary. 

We resign Byard, Demarco Jackson, Zaccheaus , Keenum and E Hicks plus Gardner-Johnson to play SS on a 1 yr deal. 

In this scenario we get the comp pick around pick 100. 

In the draft we trade pick 25 for for Seattle pick 32 and pick 96. 

32- Lee Hunter/ DT 

57- Gabe Jacas/Edge 

89- Isaiah World/ OT 

96- Nicholas Singleton/ RB 

100-Jalon Kilgore/ S

129-Kyle Louis/ LB

163-Marlin Klein/ TE 

240- Andre Fuller/ CB

242- Miller Moss/ QB 

[adam]

I think it is wild seeing Malik Willis as the #1 Free Agent on many lists. His agent is a masterclass. The guy has one start with over 210 yards passing. How is he any different than a guy like Tyler Huntley? Hell, I would take Mitch over Willis any day. Which leads me to this, why would teams be interested in Bagent but not someone like Trubisky? That confuses me. It is not like Trubisky would cost an arm and a leg to get.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

5 hours ago, adam said:

I think it is wild seeing Malik Willis as the #1 Free Agent on many lists. His agent is a masterclass. The guy has one start with over 210 yards passing. How is he any different than a guy like Tyler Huntley? Hell, I would take Mitch over Willis any day. Which leads me to this, why would teams be interested in Bagent but not someone like Trubisky? That confuses me. It is not like Trubisky would cost an arm and a leg to get.

Bagent has very little on him, were the others have more tape and been around longer. 

One thing we havent seen is Bagent behind the rebuilt oline and a competent offense. I am sure the Bears know his value and doubt a 3rd would do it since they do not have anyone at backup.

[adam]

1 hour ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Bagent has very little on him, were the others have more tape and been around longer. 

One thing we havent seen is Bagent behind the rebuilt oline and a competent offense. I am sure the Bears know his value and doubt a 3rd would do it since they do not have anyone at backup.

Bagent for a 3rd? I think the Bears pull the trigger. It would more than likely be a bad team in need of a QB, so a high 3rd, top 75 pick.

Bagent is a solid QB, but I don't think he is "beating" anyone. He would be fine to hold the fort down for a few games, but it's not like he is Foles coming off the bench to replace Wentz. 

For the Bears, I would rather have another player, potentially a starting Safety on a new 4-year rookie deal in 2026 or 2027 than Bagent as the backup. The Bears are going to need as many key contributors/starters on rookie deals for when Caleb gets his new deal. So the trade-off for me is always going to be leaning towards a player on a rookie deal > vet that can be traded unless the drop off is too big (trading Sweat to draft a punter). 

[adam]

The first thought is the Bears will have expiring deals that they can just let go, freeing up cap to extend Caleb, however, there are also key starters that will need to be extended/signed to bigger deals, like D. Wright. The max deal AAV for QB is $60M now, with all the top 5 guys making $55M. I am assuming that will climb some in the next few years.

Caleb is making basically $10M AAV, so the Bears will need to make room for around $50M for him in today's cap dollars. Moore is $28.5M, Odeyingbo is $20.5M, so the space is there as long as Poles is better with his cap management going forward. Moore+Edmunds+Odeyingbo+Jarrett=$85M in cap dollars this year, you replace them with Williams new deal and have approximately $35M left over for WR3, LB1, Edge2, and DT2. The hope is two of those are rookie deals, leaving most of the $35M for the other two. 

[BearFan PHX]

I also think that Caleb will leave $10M/yr on the table the way his idol Tom Brady did.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

1 hour ago, adam said:

The first thought is the Bears will have expiring deals that they can just let go, freeing up cap to extend Caleb, however, there are also key starters that will need to be extended/signed to bigger deals, like D. Wright. The max deal AAV for QB is $60M now, with all the top 5 guys making $55M. I am assuming that will climb some in the next few years.

Caleb is making basically $10M AAV, so the Bears will need to make room for around $50M for him in today's cap dollars. Moore is $28.5M, Odeyingbo is $20.5M, so the space is there as long as Poles is better with his cap management going forward. Moore+Edmunds+Odeyingbo+Jarrett=$85M in cap dollars this year, you replace them with Williams new deal and have approximately $35M left over for WR3, LB1, Edge2, and DT2. The hope is two of those are rookie deals, leaving most of the $35M for the other two. 

If the Bears trade, then expect a mid-lower level vet like Tyrod Taylor to be signed.   

[DABEARSDABOMB]

9 hours ago, adam said:

I think it is wild seeing Malik Willis as the #1 Free Agent on many lists. His agent is a masterclass. The guy has one start with over 210 yards passing. How is he any different than a guy like Tyler Huntley? Hell, I would take Mitch over Willis any day. Which leads me to this, why would teams be interested in Bagent but not someone like Trubisky? That confuses me. It is not like Trubisky would cost an arm and a leg to get.

Bagent hasn't shown he ISNT he guy where as Mitch has clearly gotten the chances and shown he isn't a full time starter.  I don't think anyone would view Bagent as worthy of a 2nd round pick - unless it was a conditional type of pick.  

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Bagent hasn't shown he ISNT he guy where as Mitch has clearly gotten the chances and shown he isn't a full time starter.  I don't think anyone would view Bagent as worthy of a 2nd round pick - unless it was a conditional type of pick.  

he's probably not worth a 2nd, but he is worth something to us as well as a backup, so if you want him a year early you gotta pay a premium, that's why the 2nd. Next year, we would take a 3rd, but right now, I think we keep him another year and take the 3rd next year if thats all thats being offered.

Also, if you think he's your starting QB, maybe you do think he's worth a 2nd if you really believe in him over other options?

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

If the Bears trade, then expect a mid-lower level vet like Tyrod Taylor to be signed.   

For sure, even if we take a QB in the 6th round or something too.

[adam]

1 hour ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Bagent hasn't shown he ISNT he guy where as Mitch has clearly gotten the chances and shown he isn't a full time starter.  I don't think anyone would view Bagent as worthy of a 2nd round pick - unless it was a conditional type of pick.  

Mitch got the raw end of the deal. Nagy + COVID in 2020 was the ultimate double whammy. Mitch went 6-3, while Foles went 2-5 with the same team. In the 3 games Trubisky "lost" the Bears allowed 35, 43, and 41.  The Bears defense didn't allow more than 26 with Foles at QB. The Bears declined his 5th year option only to lose more games the following year, then fire the entire staff. 

He still has a winning record at QB, with a 78-48 TD-INT Ratio and a career 86.9 QB Rating. Not a superstar, somewhat limited, but still better than Brady Cook, McCarthy, Ward, Gabriel, Mills, Smith, Wentz, and Rattler, all of whom started multiple games last year. 

[AZ54]

15 hours ago, adam said:

I think it is wild seeing Malik Willis as the #1 Free Agent on many lists. His agent is a masterclass. The guy has one start with over 210 yards passing. How is he any different than a guy like Tyler Huntley? Hell, I would take Mitch over Willis any day. Which leads me to this, why would teams be interested in Bagent but not someone like Trubisky? That confuses me. It is not like Trubisky would cost an arm and a leg to get.

Work ethic

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Rumor has it Gervin Dexter is on the trade market. 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

30 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Rumor has it Gervin Dexter is on the trade market. 

He's not a difference maker and he's a year from getting paid. I'm okay trading him now - or you play the comp game.  We won't get a ton -but if you can for example trade our 4th and get an earlier 4th plus a 6th or something - you do it.  I'll feel better about Poles if I see him make these type(s) of moves with guys he brought in - shows me he is thinking forward and not lost on the current prize vs. the long term goal.  

Now he also has to execute and hit on picks (knowing some are going to fail - but overall hit rate has to be good).  Get a lot of picks - have a solid hit rate - good things happen, rinse and repeat in terms of how you keep difference makers vs. who you let go/allow to move on (usually preference is a year early vs. a year late).  

[DABEARSDABOMB]

2 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

He's not a difference maker and he's a year from getting paid. I'm okay trading him now - or you play the comp game.  We won't get a ton -but if you can for example trade our 4th and get an earlier 4th plus a 6th or something - you do it.  I'll feel better about Poles if I see him make these type(s) of moves with guys he brought in - shows me he is thinking forward and not lost on the current prize vs. the long term goal.  

Now he also has to execute and hit on picks (knowing some are going to fail - but overall hit rate has to be good).  Get a lot of picks - have a solid hit rate - good things happen, rinse and repeat in terms of how you keep difference makers vs. who you let go/allow to move on (usually preference is a year early vs. a year late).  

Those 4th/5th/6th picks can also be valuable chips to trade / acquire good players with needs to (see Jackson / Thuney).