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adam

Biggest Surprise on Offense in 2022

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I feel like if there is going to be a surprise on offense, it is probably going to be one of the new WRs. However, after hearing about Getsy's offense, and the commitment to the run game and play-action, I think Khalil Herbert may be a breakout candidate as well. It seems like the schene fits him much better than Monty. Additionally, I could see Monty as a potential trade candidate at the deadline as they won't get any comp picks if they bring on several FAs next offseason. 

Thoughts?

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41 minutes ago, adam said:

I feel like if there is going to be a surprise on offense, it is probably going to be one of the new WRs. However, after hearing about Getsy's offense, and the commitment to the run game and play-action, I think Khalil Herbert may be a breakout candidate as well. It seems like the schene fits him much better than Monty. Additionally, I could see Monty as a potential trade candidate at the deadline as they won't get any comp picks if they bring on several FAs next offseason. 

Thoughts?

I don't actually think we'll be after free agents next year.  Poles will probably want all the quality picks he can get.  Trading Monty will get us more than comp, so go for it if it's worth it.

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28 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

I don't actually think we'll be after free agents next year.  Poles will probably want all the quality picks he can get.  Trading Monty will get us more than comp, so go for it if it's worth it.

The team is going to have no choice, they are going to have over 100M in cap space ($97M right now and $25M than the next team). 

Obviously some of that will go to extensions for guys like Roquan, etc, but Poles didn't eat all that dead money this year not to restock with players him and Flus want next year. I expect one or two top guys to come over via FA next offseason.

 

 

cap.JPG

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35 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

I don't actually think we'll be after free agents next year.  Poles will probably want all the quality picks he can get.  Trading Monty will get us more than comp, so go for it if it's worth it.

The bears have an insane amount of cap space next year. They're obviously gonna use a lot of that to resign guys that fit this year but they should absolutely be players in free agency. 

 

As far as a breakout goes, I really think Pringle is gonna become a guy who's looked at as a legit top 2 WR on a team and Kmet emerges as a tight end we don't look to replace. 

 

If we can talk rookies here, I kinda like Abnar a lot and think he gets a lot more play than people think. I like him more than Herbert honestly. 

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1 hour ago, adam said:

The team is going to have no choice, they are going to have over 100M in cap space ($97M right now and $25M than the next team).

Not necessarily.  As you mentioned, we have guys we can extend.  My guess is if they sign someone, it will be a poison pill deal on an up and coming player.

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3 hours ago, adam said:

I feel like if there is going to be a surprise on offense, it is probably going to be one of the new WRs. However, after hearing about Getsy's offense, and the commitment to the run game and play-action, I think Khalil Herbert may be a breakout candidate as well. It seems like the schene fits him much better than Monty. Additionally, I could see Monty as a potential trade candidate at the deadline as they won't get any comp picks if they bring on several FAs next offseason. 

Thoughts?

I like Herbert but was less enamored with his performance than others.  IMO he has room to grow but he does seem like a better outside zone fit than Montgomery. OTOH inside zone, which it appears we'll run ~30-40% of plays, is a better fit for Montgomery.  The surprise I want to see is that everyone knows where to go and what to do on each play.  Then we can better evaluate how well players perform.     

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3 hours ago, adam said:

The team is going to have no choice, they are going to have over 100M in cap space ($97M right now and $25M than the next team). 

Obviously some of that will go to extensions for guys like Roquan, etc, but Poles didn't eat all that dead money this year not to restock with players him and Flus want next year. I expect one or two top guys to come over via FA next offseason.

 

 

cap.JPG

This will be a position that can make or break a GM/team.  We like and want to see our young players drafted or signed progress and succeed, but then we have all this money we have to spend.  We can spend a little on Oline while we wait for one of our young guys to develop, so 1 to2 year window. What else? Maybe another vet WR like Will Fuller to throw in the mix and a DT to help. 

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I think a lot of people he brought in will get second contracts. I also think we seen how he handles it with the Ogunjobi signing, it is a high money contract but will not be outrageous. Example paying 10 mil to MVS and Kirk getting 17 mil a yr. He will target some players to add but will not be the premium contracts. He's not going to start his career being thrifty and then pull a Ryan Pace and sign Quinn to a huge contract. Absolutely think he is doing it the right way, even thou Im impatient enough to not see it that way.

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1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

I think a lot of people he brought in will get second contracts. I also think we seen how he handles it with the Ogunjobi signing, it is a high money contract but will not be outrageous. Example paying 10 mil to MVS and Kirk getting 17 mil a yr. He will target some players to add but will not be the premium contracts. He's not going to start his career being thrifty and then pull a Ryan Pace and sign Quinn to a huge contract. Absolutely think he is doing it the right way, even thou Im impatient enough to not see it that way.

Ehhhhh, I don't think he's  always gonna be "Thrifty." He's "Remodeling," as a watcher of home remodeling shows, you gotta tear it down to build it up and put money into it. 

 

He also didn't have potentially 135 million dollars in cap space to work with this year. If he's simply thrifty with 135M then I'm gonna be upset. 

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I dont think he will be thrifty or not thrifty, I think he just doesnt want to sign stop gap free agents to longer term deals. If the right free agent comes along, that you think is your best option to fill the position for a few years, then i dont think he will hesitate.

The main thing is not to sign a guy on a 4 year deal because you have a hole this year, and end up married to a guy who is less of a player than you could have ended up with if you'd waited a year or two. Thats all.

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9 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

I dont think he will be thrifty or not thrifty, I think he just doesnt want to sign stop gap free agents to longer term deals. If the right free agent comes along, that you think is your best option to fill the position for a few years, then i dont think he will hesitate.

The main thing is not to sign a guy on a 4 year deal because you have a hole this year, and end up married to a guy who is less of a player than you could have ended up with if you'd waited a year or two. Thats all.

Very rarely do the good ones hit the market. If they are on the market they are not the teams top priority or they believe they can replace them with a cheaper option.

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3 hours ago, scs787 said:

Ehhhhh, I don't think he's  always gonna be "Thrifty." He's "Remodeling," as a watcher of home remodeling shows, you gotta tear it down to build it up and put money into it. 

 

He also didn't have potentially 135 million dollars in cap space to work with this year. If he's simply thrifty with 135M then I'm gonna be upset. 

How about "judicious" with his spending? 

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2 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Very rarely do the good ones hit the market. If they are on the market they are not the teams top priority or they believe they can replace them with a cheaper option.

very true. either the talent is lacking, or the price is too high, but with all that cap room, if they want to pay a lot for someone who is really good they can.

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When I say thrifty, I mean he ain't going after D K  Metcalf and paying 28 mil a year. Spending 14.5 mil for Ogunjobi, A younger player in his prime with upside is the example. With a full draft he will build through the draft and target a few . People like Morrow, Pringle, could be signed to long term deals. 

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14 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

When I say thrifty, I mean he ain't going after D K  Metcalf and paying 28 mil a year. Spending 14.5 mil for Ogunjobi, A younger player in his prime with upside is the example. With a full draft he will build through the draft and target a few . People like Morrow, Pringle, could be signed to long term deals. 

Honestly,  I'm not sure I'd like that. If Metcalf, a guy who is still going to be in his prime becomes available or a younger elite talent in their prime becomes available,  you should make that move. 

 

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I assume he is going to target up-and-coming guys that outplayed their rookie deals where the current teams can't pay them.

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3 hours ago, adam said:

I assume he is going to target up-and-coming guys that outplayed their rookie deals where the current teams can't pay them.

This would be ok, especially if we "poison pill" some RFA players.  I don't want to play star money to anyone who is not ascending.  We hopefully have enough of our own players to lock in to extensions to eat up some cap. (Roquan, Jaylon, Mooney, Kmet, Gipson, money and a few surprise players)

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53 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

This would be ok, especially if we "poison pill" some RFA players.  I don't want to play star money to anyone who is not ascending.  We hopefully have enough of our own players to lock in to extensions to eat up some cap. (Roquan, Jaylon, Mooney, Kmet, Gipson, money and a few surprise players)

Yeah we can't overpay for guys like Christian Kirk and set the market for mediocre talent. We also need guys who fit the Poles/Flus mold. Those seem to be few and far between. That may be why a guy like Johnson is in the doghouse and playing with the 2s. Too many loafs.

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Most big contracts to free agents for WRs aren't usually worth it. 2021 FA WRs making over10 mil a yr. 

Golladay 18 mil

Cory Davis 12.5_mil 

Cutris Samuel 11.5 mil

Nelson Agholor  11 mil

Will Fuller 10 mil.

None of them were worth the money. More money doesn't always mean big production.

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One option not discussed is trading for players with existing and expiring contracts that the cap space will be needed for. There may be some Colts' defensive players available next year that may be enticing to this defensive staff next year and maybe in a couple of days when the June 1st cuts hit. The Colts also are change DCs so there may be some scheme casualties from them as well. Chris Ballard is a savvy GM that doesn't tip his hand early.

I truly believe we may see quite a few transactions by the GM during this upcoming period.

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3 hours ago, lemonej said:

One option not discussed is trading for players with existing and expiring contracts that the cap space will be needed for. There may be some Colts' defensive players available next year that may be enticing to this defensive staff next year and maybe in a couple of days when the June 1st cuts hit. The Colts also are change DCs so there may be some scheme casualties from them as well. Chris Ballard is a savvy GM that doesn't tip his hand early.

I truly believe we may see quite a few transactions by the GM during this upcoming period.

Great point!

 

 

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4 hours ago, lemonej said:

One option not discussed is trading for players with existing and expiring contracts that the cap space will be needed for. There may be some Colts' defensive players available next year that may be enticing to this defensive staff next year and maybe in a couple of days when the June 1st cuts hit. The Colts also are change DCs so there may be some scheme casualties from them as well. Chris Ballard is a savvy GM that doesn't tip his hand early.

I truly believe we may see quite a few transactions by the GM during this upcoming period.

good one!

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36 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

good one!

Being he is committed to rebuilding threw the draft, maybe one trade, he values draft picks.

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55 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Being he is committed to rebuilding threw the draft, maybe one trade, he values draft picks.

I hope he sticks to building through the draft.  Every trade has kept us in the mediocre to bad window for 25 years.   

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