BearFan PHX

interesting.

Also, AI gets this backwards all the time, so if those quotes are AI generated, they might just be AI failing to understand what -1.5 means? But either way, I appreciate the info.

excellent, thank you Mongo. Of course I understand opening lines too, it's just that everywhere I looked, like ESPN, and All the Vegas casinos (second link below) opened with the Pack as 1.5 pt faves. I do appreciate seeing evidence of the other side of this coin. I didnt think there was any, given what id seen, and its good to know the truth, so thank you. https://www.espn.com/nfl/odds https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/

all the places I looked opened as Packers -1.5, which for betting purposes seems about right?

right, and thats because people will bet for the Packers anyway. For a while there you could do pretty well if you bet against the Packers and the Patriots (with Brady) and took the points. That was because the betters thoguth they were better than they were. The Packer and Patriots won a bunch of those games too, but they didnt cover the spread because the spread was inflated by meatheads who thought those teams were godly, rather than just winners. Anyway, Adam, I dont mean to disagree with you too much about this - we agree on like 99.9% of everything else.

exactly. even the opening line is meant to represent expected bets, so as to get even money on both sides and then no matter who wins, Vegas wins. And even more so when the line changes. But I get it. Our defense is ridiculous and it's hard to bet on turnovers, last minute comebacks etc. In truth the Packers ought to be 4 point favorites, but the Bears have some kind of magical heart this year that doesnt really fit into normal football logic. But all that said i really want to beat the shit out of the Packers this week. I dont care if we lose next week - this season has been a success. Hell, if it was SF or Seattle this week and we lost, Id be good with it, but not the Packers. We need to shut these cheeseheads up with a real victory. I'd like to see us win by 10 or more - and hold the lead through most of the game. If Dennis Allen has some tricky crap - this is the week to use it. I also hope Johnson features the run game and pounds it down their throats. Beat the Packers!

you werent wrong - it was a smart prediction. none of us has an actual crystal ball, so a prediction like this is just a good bet, and I think you were right last year, it was a good bet. and it could happen for him this year, but sooner or later that guy is getting a GM job, and I think he's been offered a few already. so if you were off about your bet, it was just that he wouldnt take the arizona job, not that he didnt have the opportunity.

I like a hard schedule. Makes you ready for the playoffs.

sure, but I dont imagine that DJ will come down from $28.5M to $16M or similar? Maybe Im wrong about that, but if I was DJ I wouldnt, especially with the writing ont he wall that his targets will be diminished as they have been? It seems like it has trade written all over it. But again, not because DJ isnt good, because he IS good, but thats just waaay too much money for his production. If we can get him entirely off our books, and get some value in return, i think thats the right move.

Edmunds is often out of position in coverage, and offensive coordinators have been attacking him personally for the past month. He is a physical specimen, but he is not a good LB. I thought when they moved him to WLB that would help, and it seemed to for a minute, but the guy never gets his drop right, and they complete a ton of balls on him. hes not playing well, and hes sure not playing $16M well. The unit looks better with Demarco Jackson out there honestly.

Yeah, Im not saying it's stupid or anything to think we should keep DJ. I have a lot of respect for him as a player. We can disagree maybe on HOW good he is, but I don't think that's really the question anyway. I think he's very good. Take D'Andre Swift for example. At $4M a year, hes a no brainer to keep and feature. At $8M its a fair price given his recent production and renewed energy. At $16M a year hes a clear cut or trade candidate. That's not a slight on him - he's the same player the whole time, it's just a matter of price. I personally just don't think DJ is worth $28M a year. If someone trades for him, they'll only pay $16M a year (we eat the rest) and that's a much more reasonable price for his production in my opinion. I could go on and say he quits on routes, sometimes has terrible body language etc etc but I really dont want to disparage him, because all in all, I think hes a pretty damned good receiver. I'm not thinking we will trade him because I'm mad at him or he "sucks" - that's not it at all. It's just the price tag is too high for what you get. And this becomes especially true when you look at our cap situation, and the clear assets needed to stock the defense. If you traded DJ for a 3rd rounder even, you'd add $16.5M to the free agency spend, and a 3rd round pick. That could be three starters. Or it could help pay for a stud DE, and the 3rd might help you move up a little in the first round to draft the DE's understudy. Just that would help a lot. Or think of it this way. Imagine DJ is a free agent, but we have the rest of our roster and WRs. If we have $31M in cap space, with this current defense and offense, would you spend $28.5M of it on DJ Moore? I like DJ! He's just too expensive in my opinion?

Well said. I wouldnt fight to the death for DA, but if it was my call I'd keep him, for all the reasons you just listed.

The current players dont match ANY scheme. They are "built" for Cover 2 zone but they dont have a pass rush to make that work. They are too slow for man to man, and when we blitz 7 no one gets home. I dont think there is a single player on our defense that we couldnt live without. Some will stay, and some will go depending on replacement options and trade interest etc, but I see a lot of turnover coming for our defense this offseason. I'm gonna say at least 5 new starters not currently on the roster by midseason. Could easily be 7 or more.

right! DJ is a talented WR, but he is just way too expensive.

not really? they were unable to stop the Lions from eating up tons of clock, and scoring. The offense might have looked better if theyd had the ball to get into a rhythm. And then there is the eye test. We were terrible. If the Lions had been down 21 points coming out of halftime, they clearly could have scored that many if they needed it. Im not giving the offense a pass here, but the defense stunk. Like extra stinky. One of the worst defensive performances ive ever seen. Right up there with last week against SF and the week before against the Pack. When your opponent is up two scores, you cant point to their offense slowing down as a product of our defensive play. They didnt punt much.