BearFan PHX

me too! I cant say that Williams is going to be a Brady Mahomes type, but I can say it looks like there is a good chance he can be. And that is very exciting. The thing is, while there are many examples on film of him holding the ball waiting for substandard receivers to get open, or just looking for the deeper routes, there are alos LOTS of examples on film of him processing and getting the ball out quickly. He's not another Justin. Like DABEARS says, his average may be similar to Justin's, but his standard deviation is high. That means sometimes he is holding the ball much longer than Justin did, and other times it's coming out fast. So unlike Justin who had problems reading defenses and rarely showed throws in schedule, Caleb has a ton of examples of him reading and throwing quickly. He throws with anticipation, and leads receivers well too for YAC. Caleb doesnt have processing issues, and once he does decide to throw, the throwing motion is compact and efficient. It's very impressive. So his arm motion is already great. His footwork is pretty good, but when it isnt, his accuracy is still great because of his arm strength. Like Mahomes, he can throw accurately off platform. Caleb doesnt need a lot of QB whispering, he just needs to be told to take what the defense gives him more often. And its not like he struggles with that - there are myriad examples of him doing it on tape. for sure, we all are. Until yesterday I had a nagging negative feeling about Caleb. It wasnt based on anything, i thin it's just what you're saying here. But i watched more film and his interviews yesterday, and when I saw his demeanor, I was sold. He reminds me of Kobe Bryant. He was asked if he asked the Bears anything (or what would he ask them, Im not sure which) and he said "do you want to win?" it sounds like Caleb is going to be a real leader on the team, maybe even eventually arguing with or outranking the coaches. I know that can be a red flag in a lot of cases, but what i see is a guy who will check the coaching mistakes. It seems like he is going to drag everyone around him to victories. And to me, that's the real deal.

Watching more film, and I think at this point it's time to stop worrying about Caleb Williams, and time to start worrying whether the Bears will screw this up, or whether Waldron is gonna make it work. Caleb is everything he needs to be. I've seen enough. If they don't screw him up, this is gonna be the most important Bears player in a LONG time. And if he wins four superbowls, he's gonna be the #1 Bear over Butkis and Payton too. Get excited for what's possible now. We have a real shot at having a legend.

I'm, watching all 22 tape, not TV broadcast. Good games and bad ones. Complete games, not highlight reels. What I see in his fast release isn't something that I read about in an article anywhere. It's just what my own eyes tell me. it jumps off the screen. But now that you've challenged it, I did a quick search, and here are some quotes (and again, i didn't read these first, I just watched the tape) "Extremely quick release, especially on underneath throws. Allows for him to get the ball to his receivers in positions where they can pick up yards after the catch." "Processes the game at a very high level for a player coming out of college. There are dozens of instances on film where he rapidly gets through full-field reads to find the open man in structure." https://247sports.com/nfl/chicago-bears/article/2024-nfl-draft-scouting-report-usc-qb-caleb-williams-226484868/ "Twitchy release helps generate heat on drive throws." "Rapid-fire transition from fake to throw on RPOs." https://www.nfl.com/prospects/caleb-williams/32005749-4c17-6897-a516-9754023602e6 "Williams has a clean, quick and, most importantly, repeatable throwing motion" https://sports.yahoo.com/heres-what-makes-caleb-williams-a-special-nfl-draft-prospect-and-why-he-compares-to-a-legendary-qb-045029042.html Sportswriters read stats like TTT and then make up these insane narratives. Then other sportswriters read them and echo them. All you have to do is watch some all 22 games. Then you can see for yourself, and you'd agree with me. It's not rocket science, you just gotta look at it instead of reading some article.

It seems like you only read the first sentence i wrote and misunderstood me. You're talking about time to throw, not his release. I'm saying his actual physical release. The way his arms moves when he throws - compact, no wasted movement. Once he decides to begin his throwing motion, the ball comes out faster than almost anyone I've seen, and it looks like Marino. Let's say that at the same moment both Caleb and Justin decide to throw the ball to a WR. The ball is out of Caleb's hands so fast after that, while Justin still has to sit his butt down (why? I dont know), then pat the ball and then finally throw the ball with his wrist way over his ear and a slow large circular throwing motion. Caleb doesn't squat (whatever the hell that is that JF is doing) he keeps his spine straight and tall, and his throwing motion is much more compact with his wrist much lower and a lot less time to get the ball out. That's a quick release. The articles you're citing, aren't talking about his release. They're talking about time to throw, holding the ball. And that was because Caleb was looking for longer routes and homes runs, not because he couldn't read defenses in rhythm. I understand there are certain "common knowledge narratives" in the press, but if you actually look at the film, it's all there to see pretty clearly. Caleb absolutely goes through reads quickly and can get the ball out fast with a low TTT when the play calls for it. I've seen him do it on film dozens of times. Caleb is nothing like Fields. They're VERY different. And the more Im watching, the more I think we are about to get a Hall of Famer. If you think Caleb and Fields are similar, you're gonna feel dumb when Caleb starts to ascend in ways Fields never could. It is potentially like Michael Jordan coming to Chicago and youre saying "he's just another mediocre player like the one we got rid of" I think that's gonna be actually embarrassing in hind sight. We are finally getting our QB in Chicago for the first time in EVER, and you're totally missing it!

I agree with all of this! I was saying, whatever else happens, you can count on the Bears to pick up a center and a free safety in free agency!

one way or another we are going to have to get a center and a free safety in free agency. they might be high priced sure fire starters, or they might be journeymen with an expectation that rookies will compete with them, but we will be looking there for sure, even if our biggest signings go to WR, DL or whatever.

Poles has definitely feasted on the positions that were deepest in each of the last two drafts, and I suppose by random distribution, it works out that the positions we still need are deeper this year because they were not around the past two years. This is what staying disciplined get you, and Poles has surely done that.

Nah, Justin has one of the slowest releases I've ever seen in an NFL QB and Caleb has one of the quickest I've ever seen at any level. Justin pats the ball before he throws and delivers with a large arm motion. Caleb's wrist doesn't even seemingly separate from his shoulder. He has a freakishly tight and fast delivery. They are on totally opposite ends of the spectrum, and it's OK if you don't see it, it takes a trained eye for sure, but it means you aren't able to really watch the tape in an analytically meaningful way. They are each on totally different ends of the extreme - couldn't be more different. And this doesn't even address decision making in getting the ball out in tempo or anything - this is just the mechanical delivery. Add in Justin's troubles with that, and it's even worse in terms of the ball arriving on schedule. And watch Justin's butt, he squats down before and as he throws too - all these things slowing the play down, and robbing him of strength. Watch Caleb throw - he stands TALL in the pocket, with an elongated spine and the time between when he starts to throw and the ball is out is as fast as anyone who ever did it. This is why they call him generational and he gets comparisons to Marino. Remember, Marino was the only QB to beat the '85 Bears, and it was precisely because even as we blitzed everyone, Marino was able to get the ball out of his hands before they got to him, unlike every other QB they faced that year. Sure it's about fast decision making and all that, but it's also about just how fast and COMPACT the throwing motion is. JF is a B level NFL starter at best, Caleb Williams has traits that could project to be one of the best ever.

for sure, because JF is always squatting. i dont know why, Im SURE they tried to coach him out of that, but he still does it all the time.

yup. its all over his film. once he decides to throw the ball, it's already out.

To the idea that Williams doesnt want to go to Chicago: If that were true, then some scenario would be communicating that to Chicago, and being picked #2 to Washington. If that was a scenario he'd like, then he wouldnt have answered this way. I see an arrogant ubercompetitor. If he is able to dominate in the NFL, then this feels Jordan-esque. If he fails, then it will be sheer arrogance. But if he can back it up, you can see a GOAT int he making with this attitude. It sounds like how Brady talks. Julian Edelman tells a story of how he went to Brady's house in the spring of some year, and he went down into Brady's home gym. On the wall was a date and location. Edelman asked, "what's that?" and Brady told him "thats the time and place of the superbowl this year and we are going to win it." At the time I think they had 3 rings. Maybe is was four? Anyway Edelman says "we got you, we're gonna get that you ring, you're gonna beat Montana" And Brady got visibly angry and serious and looked Edelman in the eye and said "Im not trying to beat Montana. I'm going for Jordan" Guys we may not be used to it, but Bears passing greatness may be right in our grasp.

One of Calebs strengths, and you can see it clearly in that clip adam, is how fast his release is. His throwing motion is so compact, it reminds me of Dan Marino. You don't see many QBs ever with a faster release.

it certainly is the smoke season - lots of disinformation pro and con, especially around trade values. But at the end of the day, if more than one team actually wants Fields, then the price will go up, and if there's only one, it goes down. And yeah, what the hell is sportskeeda? LOL

welcome back - and that's good. we can read articles and narratives, but there is no substitute for watching film and having our own thoughts. Respect for you.

yup thanks glad to see hes not shorter. that checks that box for me

thank you!

he would have been a great coach for us.

That must have been amazing. Im such a fan of his.

Quincy Jones! Great piece of music.

I guess it depends on how you measure it. I agree that there are times he does all those things, so from that point of view you can call it a concern. But I tend to evaluate these guys by looking to see what they CAN do. So while he sometimes holes the ball too long, he also makes quick reads and throws with anticipation, so you know he CAN do it. With Justin, he holds the ball because he doesnt see it until it's too late, with Williams, it seems to be because he is waiting for better longer home run options, not because he doesnt see it. There are lots of plays where he goes through his reads quickly and gets the ball out in rhythm too. I think Williams was looking for home runs because his defense was so bad and he felt pressure to score a lot of points. So while I agree that he does sometimes do the things youre saying, I also see plenty of evidence that he is capable of running the offense in tempo too, so I dont worry whether he has that skill or not. He wont need to develop that skill for the pros, hell just need to be more disciplined which is completely coachable?

Good post! A lot of information in there, thank you. Yeah I agree all that's left to fight over is offset language and lump sum payments of guaranteed money. Since the last 4 #1 picks all got it as a lump sum, if the Bears didnt give that to Williams, I'd pretty much blame them and not Williams for that, so that leaves offset language. I cant imagine that's going to be a real sticking point. And while the Bears may have a point in that one, the ball is in their court too, so theyd be a 50/50 participant in any trouble over that issue too. In other words, the Bears can give on both of those points without damaging themselves too much or at all. So they can control and avoid those scenarios? Also as you said, i doubt all those guys were holdouts, they just werent signed quickly. But i dont know how many of them were I totally admit. Now if you wanna talk about franchise tagging in year 6, then I totally think Williams could be difficult about that, as far away as that is for now. One thing I always liked about Brady was that he routinely took about $10M less per year than he was worth, and that gave his team money to keep weapons around him. If Williams really does want greatness, he might think like that too in the future. And when you win a lot of superbowls, you recoup that $10M in endorsements anyway. But if Poles drafts Williams, Im not worried at all that he will hold out. I do think his dad will keep saying stupid stuff, but i dont think it will really matter?

I'm pretty sure the slotted contract system started in 2011, and Enis was drafted before that? The only rookie holdout I can recall since then was over contract clauses related to off the field bad behavior affecting the $. I think that issue has now been settled one way or the other and standardized. I cant recall a rookie holdout since 2011 when the rookie slotted deals started. i think the rules are such that the Bears have literally no choice in what to pay Williams, they cant change it, so I'm not sure why he'd hold out? I cant say whether Williams wants to play in Chicago, but if he doesnt, Poles has to know that. And since it's not being said publicly, it's extremely unlikely I think that he doesnt want to go to Chicago, and if hes saying that privately then its even more unlikely that we draft him anyway and he holds out? There are lots of things to worry about with any high pick, but i dont thinka holdout is really one of them? Caleb's dad seems like an idiot. Kind of a Venus and Serena Williams' dad thing. he will cause trouble again Im sure, but i dont think it will affect Caleb and the Bears, but just be silliness in the press. Pat Mahomes is having some sort of trouble in the press with having family members try to extort him for money or something, and we'd still take him all day

Someone needs to actually measure the guy

I agree entirely. Drafting a QB in late rounds is not gonna fill a hole at starting QB without some incredible luck of the sort that you cant possibly count on.

In both of those cases, Manning and Elway were overt about not wanting to be drafted by that team, and Caleb isnt saying that in interviews, and is showing a lot of love toward Chicago pizza etc - its dumb stuff, but not the actions of someone who doesnt want to be drafted by the Bears. BUT there is a scenario I can imagine where Caleb doesn't want to be hated the way you dislike Elway, and still wants to do avoid Chicago quietly behind the scenes. Im not saying this is happening, but just to play out the scenario... If Caleb doesnt want to be a Bear, and doesnt want that to be known publicly, then someone tells Poles through intermediaries that this is the case. Poles then takes a different QB or trades down, saying he preferred Maye or Daniels anyway, possibly gets a huge haul of picks, and no one is the wiser. I imagine that if Poles hears this from Caleb he wouldnt want to go public with it either, because it makes it look like he cant land the guy he wants. So it would all be secret. But it still wouldnt end with us drafting Caleb and then Caleb holding out. It would end with taking a different player #1 or trading out of #1, and we'd never find out the truth of why it happened. Rookie deals are set in stone too, so theres no contract reason for Caleb to hold out either. So I think if we draft him, he will play for us.