BearFan PHX

it *IS* BS, and I buy both NFL Sunday Ticket and YouTubeTV to see the Bears. It's crazy. I never watch YouTubeTV other than that. Whatever the NFL is getting licensing it, they could get the same at lower rates to us by cutting out middlemen, and if they do the per team option at a much diminished price, they might still be making more than what YouTube gave the NFL for the rights. All of YouTubes profit on top of that is what we are paying for. Yuck! The era of buying a whole service for a single show cant be sustainable. Even the idea of services is probably gone in 20 years. Channels, Networks - they will all just be production houses and capital for production, and if the show can make itself, then theyll will stream to us direct. Same with films and why not sports too.

all good points. still, if you have a guy doing really well and he cant stay cuz he clashes with new blood, has the new blood proved it? We'll see. I'm already looking with a cynical eye after keeping Flus.

It was in the Sun Times, and I totally agree, what alpha leader DC will come here and put up with this. Also, all the position coaches are staying - which is probably a good thing, but another decision made out of order because of retaining Eberflus. I do like the defensive position coaches. It should also be said we've heard nothing about interviewing defensive coordinators. They aren't out there looking for hotshots, they're gonna want a puppet. And we will be in prevent losing games in historical ways again. I hate to say it, but I think the Kevin Warren experiment is already starting to smoke a little. Not that it's too late to fix it, but geez. From Jan 11th, Sun Times "Eberflus repeated his desire to call plays again next season but said he’d be open-minded when he interviews coordinator candidates in the coming weeks. He’s already committed to stability, though. The Bears plan on bringing back every position coach on defense and could even promote one of them to coordinator. That makes sense, as each group produced dominant performances." https://chicago.suntimes.com/bears/2024/1/11/24035133/bears-defense-coordinator-will-not-change-good-thing-jaylon-johnson-montez-sweat-matt-eberflus-nfl

I don't know if that will work or not, but that's Caleb's opinion on deep dish in Chicago. (video didnt show up in thread but can click on the caleb is gonna love it here part to go to that reddit thread and see it) I watched this. I was surprised by what these top athletes went through. I think it was in this one where he told his dad at 10 he wanted to be the best QB. He was waking up at 430 every day and at the gym by 530, working out and then would go to school. Then after school, back to the gym training. Good stuff. There are a lot of plays there that are the kind I wish Justin would make. This is right on time, and good to see. Caleb has until Monday to declare. This is all about to get very interesting.

Stein was great. He'd been there a while, maybe he retired. If he was forced out or if he quit because of anything the team or office was doing, then that's a strong signal that this group is going to crash and burn. I couldnt know which it is though, so I'm not predicting. To me, up until last week Poles has done a great job, but it was the old teardown, and roster building. I said a few weeks ago that Poles hugging everyone was concerning me, and I wondered if he would be able to cut and trade players and coaches or whether he was too invested in being part of and liked by the team - a weakness that (IF it exists) wouldnt show itself until now, since everything up to this point has been adding. Now we hear Eberflus is going to keep calling defensive plays. Stein was one of the only bright spots that was consistent for decades with us. If he retired, or left for some other opportunity, then God bless him and I wish him well. But if he was fired, or quit because of the team front office, then this is possible piece of evidence that we have the wrong guys. I would contend that keeping Eberflus is another. So that's at least one strike, and maybe another on this hypothetical score board for Warren / Poles. And just like a strike, it doesnt mean you cant hit a home run on the next swing and be a hero either. These are only small beginning things to keep an eye on, not large indictments with clear conclusions at all. Just little bits. But if they also keep Justin and don't draft a top QB, and Justin doesn't develop next year, it will become a fully fledged dumpster fire pretty quick.

Adam the numbers guy! Nice! I was wondering about this, and it's amazing the numbers wash so closely. I guess the lesson is - look for talent, the $ comes (a close) second.

oh for sure, I was speaking of out of towners like me, I should have added that to the list. Free local broadcast with streaming option requiring no cable or antenna with commercials for preseason and regular season games. I do think it's reasonable to pay a fee to stream Bears preseason and regular games out of Bears media market tho. I will pay that, but why do I have to buy YouTubeTV as well, when I never watch it? And can I buy just the Bears for a lesser price please? And I also meant that there should be a free streaming option for everyone for the playoffs where you dont even need cable or an antenna. From any location. And there will be commercials.

The NFL is going too far. In the future there should be one fee to pay, that doesnt require buying YouTubeTV as well or whatever, that allows you to watch any NFL game from preseason thru the end of the regular season. And then all playoff games should be available to anyone who wants to watch them, but with commercials. And if they are decent at all, a lower fee to only watch all the games of one team. This is getting ridiculous.

lol

That is hilarious! Great neighbor / friend!

next up - does Matt Eberflus talk in his sleep and is his next door neighbor a Packer's fan lol

right the question is in interviews did he gain any insight to Washington's views on the top QBs, and did he spill any of our info to them. I dont think its a big deal at all, but we have nothing else to talk about so we're dissecting that LOL

for sure. there's so much smoke though, and our analysis hasnt been completed yet, so Cunningham may like a player we dont eventually choose at #1, or not like a guy who we eventually do take at #1. And Washington would still be nervous we might take the guy they want, so that they could be in the trading mix with us to jump up and get him. And that scenario only matters if no one else is interested in #1 and we are trading out of it. If anyone else wants #1 for any player, Washington has to fear that too. And if we dont trade out we take whoever we want to. We are the 800 pound gorilla in the room this year. So it's not much of a risk. On the other hand, knowing who Washington likes might help us feel comfortable to trade down with them first to #2, but of course they havent completed their analysis yet either. and on and on the wheel spins! Its all spy stuff now, and everything and its opposite could be true lol

I agree, free agency or maybe a 3rd rounder could go to OG, after OC and FS are addressed, and not including the 2 first rounders for QB and WR. And that OG could be a developmental player, someone who needs a year. They will be the "Swing guard" it wouldnt hurt if they had some center experience too in case our OC solution gets injured. But hopefully you'd take someone who could challenge Davis for starting time. get those three players competing for two spots and the odd man out is injury duty, which seems likely given our two guards. Id also like to see us pick up a TE2, and some help on the DL. Thats probably in free agency, and possibly lower in the draft. Id expect our last couple picks to be developmental guys on the OL or DL too. If we dont take a QB or WR with the first two picks, or trade down and gain extra picks and player(s) then all bets are off of course.

That's exactly it. No doubt the odds of getting Payton Manning are low. And AZ54 is right that everyone looks backwards and blames GMs for not predicting the future. And of course if you could predict the future, youd be the richest man in the world, and no one ever can. But people can assess risk and reward, and surely buying a lottery ticket that has a 33% chance to payoff a franchise QB is definitely worth buying, and all things being equal you can expect to win about 1 in three times. If you take two swings at it, you might well get it, if you take four, youre very likely to get it. And if you do it ten times, you might reliably get a Payton Manning out of that, which is why his price is 10 firsts (or whatever it is). You gotta take the chance. It's 1 second left in the 4th quarter of the Superbowl and youre down by 5 with the ball on the 50 yard line. A screen has a much higher percentage chance to get at least 20 yards, but will almost certainly not score on the prevent defense. The Hail Mary has a low percentage chance to score a touchdown, but a touchdown is the only thing that will win it for you. Who calls the screen? We all call the Hail Mary. And taking a top QB in the top few picks is a better bet than the Hail Mary, and the same prize is on the line - Super Bowl Victory. You gotta take a QB somewhere in the top 5 ish.

oh thats for sure, Bagents sample size is small. But i think Bagent's problem (in addition to the weaker arm?) is that while he never held on to the ball too long, or got sacked much, the flip side is that he might have made some too quick reads he shouldnt have and as a result has increased interceptions. Hes the opposite of Fields in that way. Bagent will learnt hat with more game experience if he ever gets it, and apparently arm strength can be built in the gym - Tom Brady being an excellent example. I wonder about Bagents future. I think he has a lot more in him.

thats not as far fetched as it may seem. They almost certainly discussed the draft, and while I doubt they said "heres what were gonna do" Im sure the questions they asked tipped their hands a bit. Good point.

There are reports that Williams may wish to game the system by avoiding the NFL draft and then coming into the league in the supplemental draft, in which the order of things does not favor the Bears. Im gonna say this, if Williams is not a Bear, Im gonna hate him for his whole career with a passion. Im not saying I want him to be a Bear, but dude, you and your painted fingernails are not bigger than the NFL. Now take a guy like Dennis Rodman for example, who I absolutely love. He is painted, pierced and even dresses in womens clothing, and he hustled his ASS off for his team and never pulled that kind of crap. So I dont care about the nails or whatever per se - but when they are a symptom of a personality disorder that shows the player to be selfish and entitled, then I think that guy can go to hell. Whatever anyone could say of Rodman, no one would call him entitled. No one hustled harder than the worm. I freakin' love that guy. Williams seems like an entitled baby, and I'd love to see him get destroyed int he NFL, assuming he is not a Bear of course. As someone here just eloquently said "he gives me Claypool vibes"

yeah but they are percentages, not raw numbers, so they scale to take into account the number of starts?

well 3rd round eltie QBs are like 5%, and that means you hit one out of 20 times, so there is that one, you just cant count on it. So stats arent wrong because of the exceptions, they quantify the likelihood of finding exceptions.

yeah this is what I was saying above. By all accounts he is very valuable for us, and of all years we need all the analytical help we can get going into the draft, this one has to be tops.

I just googled, and the modern game has really changed. 10 of the top 11 all time career completion percentage leaders are currently playing in the NFL. I mean hell, Trubisky is 29th all time with 64.1%, while Brady is 24th at 64.3%. Marino is 79th with 59.4% - but by eye, Brady and Marino were known as surgeons on the field, getting the ball out quick to the right receiver. Fields didnt make the list because he hasnt played enough games I guess, and stands at 60.3% I guess pure career completion percentage isnt gonna be the stat to use, but there must be a related one that tells the story, because we all know the Montana, Manning, Brady, Marino type of all time greats who didnt move and got the ball out quick to the right guy. Whatever that stat is, it will tell the story of what Im saying about being mobile being a great multiplier, but not enough to substitute for the core skill of executing the offense.

for sure all the extra skills are multipliers, and there are lots of ways to play the position. But I would argue that with or without those extra skills, if a pocket statue could complete 70% of their passes in rhythm, that alone would be greatness. And conversely, if you complete 50% of your passes, no matter how good you are running, you will not be great. Think of Dan Marino, Payton Manning and Tom Brady as pocket statues. If any of them could have run like Josh Allen even, then theyd have been even more dominant, but they didnt have to. Executing the offense is really all that is necessary. I havent done my homework on Drake Maye at all, am I already sounding like a Maye proponent? LOL

unless they are all in on Williams and want to run the same type of offense that would work with Fields. But for me, yes, I want to see a QB who can make reads and execute the offense in rhythm. And then whatever other skills they have are an added bonus that gets you a first down or two on every drive.

I think Poles listens to my comments the most LOLOL