BearFan PHX

If a rookie comes in and starts balling the locker room is gonna love him too.

Ive been looking at Daniels and Penix too. I'm nowhere near ready to put a marker down on any of them, but I do believe that we need a QB and Fields will never be the player to take us to the promised land. And yes I am an idiot couch QB evaluator too But yeah, they all have warts and worries, and I'm not particularly sold on Williams at all at this point either. I also think that if the plan is to build a team around a QB who is less than a franchise star (you called that win in spite of?) then it makes sense to trade Fields because the decision on his 5th year option for the 2025 season is due in may of 2024 right after the draft. And then youre locked into paying him $25Mil a year in 2025. Right now we are still flush with cap space but that's gonna dry up very soon after this season, and some of the younger players start to come due. So for me, you kinda have to decide in or out on Fields now, and if hes just someone to build around and not the man, then a rookie deal probably fits with that way of thinking better?

all good points, but they seem to me to point toward drafting a different QB (not named Williams) to replace Fields?

exactly. a point guard is improvising within a play, and a selfish one isnt distributing the ball enough.

I really like Penix, but he has had a bunch of injuries too. He still may end up being my favorite, but it's a concern.

well said. I dont understand why more dont see it, but well said.

yes. and I wish we were still picking #4 too for similar reasons.

true! Thank god Ryan Pace didnt manage to convince the Seahawks to take our THREE first rounders for him. We begged them to do it, and Pete Caroll said no at the last minute. What a bullet, dodged.

the dance is starting lol everyone wants everyone, everyone doesnt want everyone smoke everywhere

I agree with what youve said about Fields of course, but what kind of OC could you get if we keep Eberflus, knowing hes coming into a situation on thin ice? And are we really gonna take the first year of a rookie QB and saddle him to an outgoing coaching administration again for the third time in a row? We need a new QB and a new offensive minded head coach.

ah, yes, youre right - sorry I missed that. Still I agree. I would love to get something for the #1 pick and still end up with one of the good QBs. Right now I like Daniels and Penix, but i need to do a lot more work yet. Maybe Ill love Caleb Williams, but right now, i definitely dont.

I think we agree. I like Daniels, and if he can be had with the second of our first rounders that would be ideal. That would be my first choice of draft outcomes. Unfortunately, because weve been winning games, we wont be picking #4 anymore though. Also, to those who want to wait for a second round QB, isn't Bagent already that guy?

Im not sure they arent being targeted by the play, and Fields just isnt pulling the trigger. For example weve seen a lot of stats that that we dont use the middle of the field(!). But when I look at the all 22, I see receivers open in the pattern in the middle of the field, Fields looking right at them and then not throwing the ball. Later in the same play, Fields may do something amazing and get a first down, and we all call that a success. But the points arent coming, and the wins are against the bad teams. Im not here to defend Getsy, but Im not sure that the lack of middle field passes is on Getsy at all. Maybe Mooney would be better in rhythm.

taking a QB high int he first round is risky. Taking one later is much more risky.

I agree the Bears wont say anything. My "evidence" was what Fields himself was saying, which I assume is a mix of his own beliefs, and what his agent is telling him.

Yeah Lovie was making $5.5 Mil a year, and Eberflus is rumored to be making $4.5 Mil a year over 10 years later! - those McCaskeys... Let's give Harbaugh $15 Mil a year, OK Virginia? Maybe make that $225 Million cap you spend each year worth something?

Im guessing, but I dont actually know anything for sure. Just doing the sportstalk thing where you guess at the unpredictable future

I believe that they are all committed to their internal process. And so, until they've done the year review and heard from everyone that goes into that "no decision has been made" I am sure that is the official status, even if people (Poles?) already know what they think and could predict pretty well where its gonna go - who will say what points and what it will mean. Also if Eberflus is gone, Poles will NEED to have that process with the incoming coach, and so from that point of view, no decision could be certain. But you can bet Poles is, at the very least, doing his due diligence setting up lists of coaches and QBs for every outcome, so it's not as if his mind is a blank. He's well into it. But all that said, I doubt very much that Poles would tell anyone what he is thinking right now - least of all Fields or Eberflus. You never know who is gonna get hit by a bus or what and so you don't tell any employee they are getting fired in the future. You wait until the moment you fire them. So I suspect this is coming from Fields' agent to Fields. This is probably his guess at what Poles will do. And I'll bet his guess is a pretty educated one. he will have inside sources too. But they wont know anything directly either, cuz Poles surely isnt telling anyone else in the building what hes doing without telling the people hes gonna do it to first. No proof, just more dots to connect.

what is JF's 4th quarter rating for this season only? I have been giving JF and Eberflus a total pass on last year.

Fields definitely knows it - and thats a huge clue as to whats gonna happen. And I dont mean he knows it because he must know it because he must agree with my analysis. I think he knows it because of answers he's been giving in press conferences and interviews recently. This past week he said (paraphrasing) "I dont care about people who love what I can do, I only care about people who love who I am" - that's the kind of philosophical answer you never want to hear coming from the mouth of a 24 year old professional athlete. It's true, and a great thing for a 60 year old man to think as his power in the world may fade a bit, and he starts to consider what's truly important in life. It's also the kind of thing someone going through a divorce might think. It's definitely mentally healthy, but it's also a resignation of someone who is losing something. A 24 year old athlete oughtta be competitive and maybe even angry. Perhaps not to the TV cameras, but imagine Tom Brady or Mike Tyson saying something like that when they were 24. No way. And I dont fault him for it. I actually think it's healthy, I just think it comes from his agent telling him which way the wind is blowing. I see it as evidence that his camp doesn't think he will be retained. And if that's a fact to add to the puzzle, what does it say for Eberflus' future? Would you bring a rookie QB in to what might be the last year of a coaching staff AGAIN for the third time in a row? And what kind of OC can you really get when it looks like Eberflus might be gone after next year? I think the odds are that Fields and Eberflus are gone. I definitely dont know anything for sure. I just think it's a pretty good guess.

I also have a hard time thinking of Lamar Jackson as a Fields comp. They both run and create outside the pocket. That's why people compare them. And honestly, I love what Fields does outside the pocket too. He's amazing. It's in no way a detraction from Fields to me. The problem of course is that he doesn't run the plays the way they are designed from the pocket. Jackson does. It's not the running that's the issue, it's the lack of pocket passing in rhythm. The plays are designed a certain way, and if you rarely pull the trigger when the play is designed to get the receiver open, then it's just sandlot ball. And being a world class sandlot baller is great, for Fields AND Jackson. But you gotta also be able to play QB within the system. And Fields just doesn't do that the way Jackson, Mahomes, Allen, Hurts and others do. If he did, or showed progress at that, I'd be a huge fan of Fields. But all these arguments of stats, or maybe thinking I'm down on the running obscure the question I'm asking. Can Fields run the offense as designed? And if not, how can we realistically think he will take us to a Super Bowl win? Some will say that we need a new OC (we do!) and that the new OC will put in an offense that works for Fields. Surely he would make use of Fields' legs, as Getsy has also tried to do. There will be rollouts and screens and plays that force the ball out of Fields' hands without making a read. Getsy's done that too. But somewhere in this new system, there will be plays where a QB has to take his drop, read a defense and let go of the ball to the right guy on time. And it doesnt matter what those routes are, I dont see any evidence that Fields will do that. So I dont really see Jackson as a comp. He shares some outrageous skills with Fields (JF is better) but he also has some core QB skills that FIelds doesn't. And that's what my issue has been all along with JF.

Well pretty much yes. I do think that we can become the 15th best team in the power rankings or so with Eberflus and Fields. But I don't mean to nitpick on language or anything like that. My main point remains, and you're right, I don't see us being a Super Bowl contender with this QB or Head Coach. And maybe more to the point, I dont see evidence that proves that right now. A lot of the evidence is going the other way. When Eberflus went for it on 4th down against the Packers instead of kicking the field goal, and he or Getsy decided to run the Kmet sneak, I called that strike one. Since then, there have been several more to my mind. I understand sometimes an opposing player beats you with a great performance, and sometimes the opposing coach gets the better of you with a well timed call "rock paper scissors" style. Good teams lose games, and once you get to the final four teams or so, on any given Sunday etc. But there have been so many unforced errors that I cant take Eberflus seriously as a difference making coach that gives us an edge on good teams. I do see improvement. I think a lot of that is the players, and perhaps the position coaches too. And Poles who got them. Everyone looks better with Dexter, Stevenson and the other rookie CB playing well now, and Sweat has added a missing piece that makes everything else look MUCH better. The LBs are playing well, Kmet is growing, Moore is great. The OL is looking better in some places too. Wright is a monster. There are reasons why the arrow is pointing up for us. I just happen to think theyd remain positives with another coach, and I dont really think Eberflus is doing anything that unconventional that another qualified head coach wouldnt give you too. Can anyone make an argument of something Eberflus has done that a competent coach wouldnt have? Something Eberflus has done that's special? With Fields, until he shows me playing within the plays, I think there is a definite ceiling on what he can do against top defenses too. So we could become the lords of the second tier. We could ascend to regularly beating the bad teams, and mostly beating the middle teams. But I dont think that improvement would ever peak above that with this QB and coach. And it's cool if you or anyone disagrees with that, because I have no crystal ball. I just havent seen anything that would tell me that is going to happen - not enough to bet on it? And youre also right that there are internal details we cant possibly know. Maybe Getsy is hamstrung by Fields, or vice versa. Theres a lot we dont know. But the unforced errors are still there to see, and they arent a matter of missing internal data?

all true, and the one year of punting not only costs you that top first round QB, but youve burned a year of contracts for the players youve just put together. And if we have another uneven mediocre year next year, Poles will get the boot along with the people he kept. I like Poles, and i think hes making good decisions, so I really dont see Poles keeping Fields around unless he's decided to pick up the 5th year and really commit to JF long term. And I personally think that's foolish. I can see why people arent sure on Fields. I think everyone thinks that to some extent. But we punted last year to see another year of Fields. And I didnt see anything that tells me this is the guy. Punting again just seems like being afraid to make a decision. And being in love with all the other things you could do with that #1 pick. This team is ready for an ascending QB that can run an offense as designed. It's time.

it's wrong, but youre right. the league gives preference for stars. They might not be having secret meetings etc about it, it might just be human nature in the ref's head. Whatever it is it isnt right I agree. I do think that when your QB has designed runs as a regular part of the offense, the refs will protect them less from slightly late hits, and call it more like they would with a running back. Especially in the case of a slide. We've seen some QBs fake slides, and when a defender is coming full speed, its not always possible to stop when the QB slides at the last minute. But youre 100% right that the rules need to be enforced the same for everyone.

I agree with all of this, except I'm not sold on Williams yet. I see a lot of intriguing QB prospects in the draft this year, and I havent put my marker down yet on who i think is going to succeed in the NFL and who will bust out. I need to do a bunch more work until Im there. But standing here, looking only at stats and social media, Caleb Williams scares me, and I sure dont like his anti Bears tweeting, the fingernail painting, holding the ball too long etc. I had that same bad feeling with Claypool during the offseason. People said I wasnt being fair to him. Maybe i wasnt. But he was the psychological turd I though he was. That doesnt mean Ill be right again, it just means I have concerns. Then again, people had non performance related issues with Warren Sapp, Randy Moss and other players I'd die to have had. So I gotta watch more film. Maye, Daniels, Penix and even McCarthy are all interesting to me, but I need to see a lot more film.