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Cutler, Forte, Marshall, Peppers, Urlachaer (does Marshall count?)

Glad to see that Emery is continuing his predecessor's habit of signing draft picks early. It's reported on the Official Chicago Bears page on facebook: "The Bears have agreed to terms on a 4-year contract with 1st round pick Shea McClellin. Hit 'LIKE' if you're happy that Shea is officially a Bear!"

OK if you put it that way i think we agree. Of course we all want the Bears to do well this year, and if this staff proves to be the magic formula, no one will want to break it up. Also I don't think Emery picked to sabotage Lovie in any way. This pick helps the team today too, again we agree. The only difference we may still have, and I agree it's a slight one, is whether Emery considered in his pick that he wouldn't be painting himself into a corner with this guy. i think that's a valid point and he considered it. That said, a pass rusher works for any scheme, which is sort of saying we're both right. Both that he helps us now, and that it doesn't hurt us if we change schemes next year. We probably agree.

As far as Emery being "all in on Smith" consider that he was hired at a time of crisis in the Bears organization. Removing Martz, promoting OL line coach from within and therefore requiring a Pass Co-ordinator is not normal. Do I hope it works? Sure I do. But you gotta admit that is not a very normal situation in the NFL. The NFL is unstable enough when it comes to security with coaching staffs, and Lovie is on the last year of his deal. Now consider the job of a REAL GM. It's to hire coaches, and get players. Any real GM will want the power to hire his own coach. Remember when this went down? We were all wondering whether Lovie might be fired too? We couldn't even get real OC candidates to interview? The professional coaches int he league saw the instability here. Most of us came to the idea that to get Emery, a professional who has been around for a while and understands this game, he was being told that Lovie had to stay this year and finish his contract, and after that the team would be his. You KNOW Emery has a plan. Whether it's a good one or a bad one, he has one. That's the whole reason he's here. It's his JOB to have a plan. And I think any GM wants to bring in one of his kind of guys at head coach. Now is it possible that Lovie will succeed and force a contract extension with a Championship game appearance or better? Maybe. There's a bunch of talent on this team. We saw how that worked for Jauron too. But you gotta think that Emery is looking to the future and hiring another coach, and from that standpoint, not picking a 1 gap DT type at #1 allows him the flexibility to deal with whatever next year brings. Had he drafted the next Tommie Harris, then I think you could say he's all in on Lovie. Right now, I don't think so.

I said this a few days ago in an earlier post. Emery doesn't have to be trying to get Lovie to fail with a bad pick, but taking someone versatile IS prudent given the unknown nature of Lovie, especially if Emery expects to go get his own coach next year. In other words he doesn't need to make him fail, just to be thinking about his next move. Im SURE Emery was told "you need to keep Lovie this season, after that do what you want"

It's astonishing to me how negative so many posters are being about McClellin. Here's a guy that Mel Kiper had rated 26th best player in the draft overall, and we took him at 19. He's a player most professionals had going in the first round to the Patriots or the Packers - both teams with excellent track records on drafting talent. Personally, the more I read about him, the better I like the pick. So yeah, there's no sure things in the draft, and a wait-and-see attitude is understandable, but the rampant negativity really just looks sophomoric and self important from where I'm standing. Stop making drama, GO BEARS! Sheesh how hard is that to understand?

AMAZING that the FIRST thing you;d think of is race. and this too "The fact of the matter is, when comparing against other players, ethnicity is the first thing people take note of, and whether they like it or not it immediately brings to mind other players of similar background. That is just how the brain works with association and that's all I've been trying to say." That's how YOUR brain works. YOU are a racist. And that makes you an ignorant fool. Now back to the draft please.

Two things. 1) Im not saying Emery did this to help Lovie out the door, just to not paint himself into a corner should that occur. 2) Bears4Ever: the race thing is so dumb it makes you look like a total idiot. You wanna tell me someone came from the projects so they're tough? Fine. But if all you've got is skin tone, then you must be a complete idiot.

What if Emery is smarter than you think? First off, he graded McClellin above other DE end options because "He showed us some natural things that the other ends did not show us to as high a level," Emery said. "His ability to bend, his pad level, to get from blocker to ball, to close the gap as quickly as possible … we felt was better than most of the rest of the class." SO straight up we liked this kid better than the others. It was said that GB and New England were looking at him too, so maybe Emery saw something. But there's more. Emery kept praising his versatility. In this article, Dan Pompei hints at it. http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/footb...,6839323.column Pompei says "There is a hidden advantage with McClellin. If the Bears change their defensive scheme, he will adapt." What if Emery isn't really planning on keeping Lovie around forever. What if he wasn't going to find a one gap DT and be stuck with a player that doesn't fit Bill Cowher's (or whomever's) scheme? McClellin is a player, and he can be moved around. He'll be a fine 4-3 DE. But he doesn't paint us into a box if Emery is planning something next year for Lovie, and a new defensive scheme. I think I like this Emery guy.

Kiper had McClellin as the 26th best player overall, just sayin.

Pix, as always the voice of reason.

I agree re: Wolfe, I was just saying, if things went REALLY poorly, he'd be the next DL down. I'm hoping for Cox or Brockers, myself. But if they think that one of the OLT is worthy, I'd be cool with that too.

OK, so we know the Bears are targeting 7 picks, and they pick 19th - that means 12 are out. You gotta feel really strongly that those 12 will be gone way before your pick, so I'm gonna say they identified 12 players that would be gone by pick #15 consensus. So first let's throw out those 12 players. I'm only able to find 11 for sure, so I'll make sure my target list is at least 8. Top QBs and RB are easy, cuz we're not looking for them, and they'll be gone early. 1 QB Andrew Luck 2 QB Robert Griffin 3 RB Trent Richardson 4 QB Ryan Tannehill Then there's 4 more guys we might like to have, but will be long gone. And hey, if we're wrong, and they're still there, it'd be an easy situation to be in. 5 OT Matt Kalil 6 DB Morris Claiborne 7 WR Justin Blackmon 8 DE Melvin Ingram So that's an easy 8 off the list of targets. I identified 3 more that will be gone by pick #15 and who don't fit our needs. 9 OG David DeCastro - we have plenty of interior OL 10 DT Dontari Poe - is a big space eater 2 gap style DT and not suited to our "Cover 2" one gap system 11 LB Courtney Upshaw - is a beast, and it wouldn't suck to have him fall to us, but he won;t and he's not a position of need. that would leave a list of at least 8 players we're targeting for the 19th pick. If any players not on these lists is picked before we do, assuring more than one of these players will be available a few slots lower, we might trade down. 1 OT Riley Reiff - a stud on OL will also be long gone 2 LB Luke Kuechly - Urlacher's replacement? He won't be there, maybe he's the 12th not targeted. If he fell it'd be interesting Here's where our likely picks start 3 DE Quinton Coples 4 WR Michael Floyd 5 S Mark Barron - maybe not a position of need, so he might be the 12th not targeted 6 DT Fletcher Cox 7 DT Michael Brockers 8 DE Whitney Mercilus It looks to me like Coples, Floyd, Cox, Brockers or Mercilus will be our pick so don;'t be surprised if its a DT instead of a DE. Remember Lovie always says it takes a DT to make the "cover 2" work. All this DE talk is possibly a smokescreen for Cox, and if things fall the right way, we could nab Floyd. So the big question is who do the Bears NOT covet and not target, Kuechly or Barron? Nightmare scenario: Tannehill slides, and we can't find a trade and take DT Derek Wolfe or one of the other CBs. Sleepers: OT Jonathan Martin, OT Mike Adams, DT Derek Wolfe

Well, if you had 50 cents, and then you had a dollar, that increase of 50 cents would be a 100% increase right? 50 + another 50. So from 13 to 23 is a 77% increase. If it went to 26, that'd be a 100% increase, cuz it was another 13! The truth is that yes, every 5 slots or so in the first round makes a huge difference in talent available. There are usually about 5 amazing players in each draft and 20 or so more really good ones. Maybe the talent at 15 is similar to the talent at 10, but at 10 you get a wider choice of positions. At 19 we are right on the cusp, so trading up for a specific player might make sense if oyu're one player away or have a glaring need that needs a starter right away. Emery has done a good job of addressing needs, now he can go get best player available, or even trade down. I suspect he will pick a DL or WR at 19 tho.

Great work, and interesting numbers. for the record 23 is a 77% improvement over 13.

I think we need a safety too.

I think we will see DL in the first round. Unless a special player falls at OT, S, LB or WR. I expect a DE in the first round but it could be a DT. The second round will certainly be DL if the first isn't, and even if it is, DL is not out of the question on both rounds. That said, I expect DE in the 1st and WR in the 2nd. But don't overlook S, OL, DT and LB help too.

You gotta wonder if Forte's injury is gonna cost him playing time next year. Not that he will still be inured, but it may bring home to him the danger of playing without long term money. Maybe it brings him to the table to get something done, and maybe it drives him away. Either way I gotta wonder if he feels less indestructable now, and will bargain accordingly.

Grizz I couldn't disagree more. The members of this board are extremely active, but we meet on practice fields, in small groups, informally, to chat now and keep our timing tight for when the dispute is finally resolved. One side note, the defensive posters are not participating in offseason discussions. I'd better get out before they arrest me for trespassing here

i think you guys are missing a possibility here. I don't think Cutler took himself out of the game. I think they YANKED him, and the knee was just a coverup. Now its a strange call, but so is the idea of Cutler sitting down by his own choice. The only other option is he was really hurt, and he sure didn't seem really hurt. I think Martz and Lovie pulled him.

I think I was pretty clear. The argument goes like this: When Angelo takes more than one player at a position, he isn't assuming BOTH will start obviously. He is FACTORING IN the uncertainty and risk that is obvious in the draft. It's like saying having household or health insurance is dumb because in 2010, your house didn't get destroyed, and you didn't get really sick. By your approach, he should take only ONE pick at a position, and feel super secure that every pick will pan out. Problem is, when you're wrong (and they are ALL wrong at times) then you are screwed. ALSO, you want to get ahead of the game, this means taking some projects, and some players with higher risk/reward ratio. If he does that four times, and produces a stud out of one of them, thats better than four average players who can't get on the field. I think you need to understand what the purpose of the draft is, and rate Angelo's performance accordingly - i.e. by the team he fields.

I think you might be doing the math backwards. It isn't Angelo's goal to get great picks with every pick, he KNOWS the draft is hit or miss, it's his goal to keep every position stocked with players that fit the scheme. So when you see him picking Gilbert and Melton, for example, he may not be thinking "each of these guys is a blue chipper" he's probably thinking "I need to increase COMPETITION on the defensive line, and each of these guys has an upside, but also has some risk. If I take two, I better my odds of having at least one of them come out, and that helps my DL issue." Just as a good financial portfolio (or offensive gameplan) includes some conservative plays and some high risk high reward choices, so does Jerry also take some swings on players that have a VERY high upside, but also have glaring issues that have caused them to fall in the draft. There's nothing wrong with taking a flier on some physical specimen and seeing if you can coach him up a little. For example, when we need help at a position, it's not uncommon to see Jerry take several players in kind of a shotgun mode. Your aim can be off, but if you put enough pellets in the right direction, you're going to hit something. if he does that, spends say 3 picks on a position, and develops a good starter there from one of them, does it matter that the other two 9which were at the same position) didn't pan out? Would you rather he put all his eggs in one basket and take only ONE player and just get it right all the time? Angelo is factoring in the uncertainty in the draft into his moves, and you aren't measuring that at all in your analysis. Let's say he's looking for a CB. Say he takes one in the 2nd round, and a long shot again int he 4th. Hopefully the 2nd rounder is surer, and certainly he was rated higher, but there are players that dont pan out. If Jerry hits on the 4th, you're going to criticize him for the 2nd being a flop - but HIS approach was to find A PLAYER, and he committed TWO picks of value to that ONE goal. The way you score it, he'd lose points, when in fact he should GAIN them for good insurance move. Jerry's doing it right, and your analysis of him is based on a premise that isn't true - he doesnt play to hit each pick, he USES picks as a tool to stock his team. The way to judge him is to point to the team, and whether he addresses needs etc. You want to say he missed on the OL this year? That's fair. But overall, especially on defense, he seems to do a good job of identifying what we need and doing things to fix them, without spending too much. And in the cases of Cutler and peppers, knowing when and how to win the bidding. To simply look at each pick, out of context to the other picks, and free agents etc, isn't really the right way to value the draft. Look at the team they field, the final product, and if there are weaknesses then hold him accountable for that. Personally I think he's doing a GREAT job, and it's just a very inexact science, and he's playing the game well.

You're not right. He's had his hits and misses, he has areas of strength and areas of weakness. ANyone you would replace him with would have the same. Yes there are things to complain about, but he is not a Jackass. LOL thats so ignorant. He's done a good job of staying the course and executing the plan. He's done pretty well in my book, and hes a smart guy that gets it.

Riiiight. Lovie needs to go because he wont tell us anything, and Angelo needs to go because he does. Jerry Angelo has done a really good job for us. Yes every draft pick doesn't pan out - show me a GM for whom that doesn't happen. Jerry has been wise with the cap, he has shown a willingness to aggressively pursue trades and Free Agents when it was necessary, and a wise ability to sit it out when it wasn't. Cutler and Peppers are BIG reasons we are going to the Playoffs this year. Thank you Jerry.

Bears4Ever says with 5 games to play, here's how they'll finish on the current pace (current stat x 16/11) Matt Forte - 992 rushing yards (6 TD) 512 receiving yards (4 TD) Jay Cutler - 3351 passing yards 23 TD and 14 INT (274 rushing yards 0 TD) Greg Olsen - 42 catches 480 yards 7 TD Devin Hester - 45 catches 537 yards 3 TD also Johnny Knox - 58 catches 1073 yards 3 TD Earl Bennett - 46 catches 512 yards 4 TD Devin Aromashodu - 12 catches 174 yards 0 TD Chester Taylor - 309 rushing yards (1 TD) 145 receiving yards (0 TD) I realize that your prediction was for last year, but it seems to be coming true. Martz is spreading the ball around more tho and Knox was a surprise from 2009 so some of the yards are coming from Forte, Olsen and Hester and going instead to Taylor, Knox and Bennett.